What do we want to see happen with this PAC12 deal?

[Tommy Gadberry]

You guys are smarter than me but I would think we want the PAC12 to crumble and shit down.  That would raise the AAC value by subtraction no?  Other thoughts?

[outoftown]

I want them to make enough to survive but only barely. I think that is about 20 million per with looots of streaming. At that rate it becomes really non obvious for AAC teams to go there if they do not get more than half share (which they will not).

[Mean Green 93-98]

They will not crumble and shut (I assume you mean) down.  They will be able to sustain in some form, even if only a few of the present PAC teams remain.  Any MWC team they invite will jump immediately, as would most AAC teams.  Which is why bad things happening to the PAC is probably bad for the AAC.

[Wag Tag]

6 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

They will not crumble and shut (I assume you mean) down.  They will be able to sustain in some form, even if only a few of the present PAC teams remain.  Any MWC team they invite will jump immediately, as would most AAC teams.  Which is why bad things happening to the PAC is probably bad for the AAC.

SDSU hasn’t jumped?

[Mean Green 93-98]

29 minutes ago, Wag Tag said:

SDSU hasn’t jumped?

Because the invite hasn't come yet.  They were clearly ready to jump when they thought an invite was coming.

[RBP79]

So I ask once again..if PAC12 lose between 4-6 schools and replaced with G5's how does it stand as a P5 if majority of new schools are G5's..lol

I know... NCAA determines P5 status (I assume) but it would be just a glorified P5.

[NorthTexasWeLove]

14 minutes ago, RBP79 said:

So I ask once again..if PAC12 lose between 4-6 schools and replaced with G5's how does it stand as a P5 if majority of new schools are G5's..lol

I know... NCAA determines P5 status (I assume) but it would be just a glorified P5.

The NCAA determines nothing. The media did that. 

[ColoradoEagle]

1 hour ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

They will not crumble and shut (I assume you mean) down.  They will be able to sustain in some form, even if only a few of the present PAC teams remain.  Any MWC team they invite will jump immediately, as would most AAC teams.  Which is why bad things happening to the PAC is probably bad for the AAC.

The complicating matters are the exit fee for the MWC, and what looks likely to be streaming for a main media partner. Some MWC schools may jump since even the worst case leftovers of Oregon State, Cal, and Washington State are an upgrade over several of the MWC schools and they already have a terrible media deal. 
 

AAC schools would be a bit more shortsighted to jump unless there were some sort of guarantee that Oregon, UW, and the Arizonas stay. That’s about the only thing that would make playing on Prime Video and the CW worth it. 

[DentonStang]

12 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

The NCAA determines nothing. The media did that. 

The P5 label is a media creation, but the Autonomy designation for the P5 is NCAA recognized in their bylaws and does matter. 

[wardly]

1 hour ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

Because the invite hasn't come yet.  They were clearly ready to jump when they thought an invite was coming.

 

16 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

The NCAA determines nothing. The media did that. 

SDSU can't afford the $34 million it would owe the MWC. It would have been $17 million but the "double your buy out date" came and went with no offer from the PAC 12, which left the Aztecs hanging in the wind.

[Mean Green 93-98]

15 minutes ago, wardly said:

 

SDSU can't afford the $34 million it would owe the MWC. It would have been $17 million but the "double your buy out date" came and went with no offer from the PAC 12, which left the Aztecs hanging in the wind.

It is still likely that the PAC's new media deal would approach $30 million per school.  Mountain West schools only get $4 million per school.  While the $34 million exit fee is nothing to sneeze at, the financials alone would still make it far preferable to go to the PAC.  That's true even if they get a smaller share.

EDIT: After thinking about it, $30 million is probably very optimistic at this point.  But suffice it to say that the PAC's media deal will provide many more millions of dollars per school every year than the MWC's will.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Mean Green 93-98

[rws69]

I saw a tweet a while ago that the PAC-12 is looking good with a lot of schools asking to join. He listed Colorado State, San Diego State, SMU, UNLV, Tulane, South Florida, Memphis, Boise State, Fresno State, Tulsa, and Rice. Some we have heard before, but I find some hard to believe. 

[NorthTexasWeLove]

1 hour ago, DentonStang said:

The P5 label is a media creation, but the Autonomy designation for the P5 is NCAA recognized in their bylaws and does matter. 

It means nothing. None of it does. And you know that. 

[Mean Green 93-98]

10 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

It means nothing. None of it does. And you know that. 

Actually, it does.  The playoff selection committee must specifically include 5 Power Five A.D.s.  No one associated with a G5 is guaranteed inclusion on the committee.

It is debatable whether that will lead to bias in the selections.  I imagine some of them will try to be perfectly fair.  But some in the P5 world have been pretty open with their thoughts that G5 teams deserve no seat at the playoff table.

[NM Green]

It’s fascinating. For the first time ever as a UNT fan I get to sit back like an SEC’er and watch programs eat their own. UNT has always been part of the not invited but Wants in club or joining the league that has just been gutted club. This is a rare sight line. 

What I would like to see happen is:

ASU and Zona - go Big 12. They fit this league. They expand the league just west enough and bring good bball and late night football games. 

Utah - forced to big 12. They won’t go willingly, but like TAMU had to swallow that rivalry with Texas again. The Holy War must return.  Or they will be in an elevated Mountain West. They have a long shot at the Big but make them decide. Stick around and take your chances or bolt to complete the mountain expansion sweep. 

The PAC - expand with a slew of G5 teams. This pushes Oregon and Washington to the brink and the Big. Their media deal gets pushed to steaming and mid week games. SMU now joins the elevated Mountain West with a worse viewership scheduling situation. 

A word to our friends:

Memphis - I look forward to developing that football and basketball rivalry in Denton and Tennessee.

SMU, Rice and Tulane - you fit the PAC profile. You’ve got decisions to make. 

USF - look forward to getting to know you. That FAU rivalry will become REAL. 

UTSA - don’t get tempted to go west.

Mountain West - go if you can but Colorado State and Air Force should look to AAC to swing through Big 12 country where the Buffs will be lurking.

The new PAC post major program defections:

Stanford

Cal

Washington State

Oregon State

SDSU

SMU

Tulane

Rice

Boise State

UNLV

Hawaii

Fresno State

The new PAC is above recognized quality of the AAC with fewer eyeballs and worse scheduling. The AAC gets prime opportunity to build off its major market teams recent success and gets to reload strategically. 

GMG

[NorthTexasWeLove]

2 hours ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

Actually, it does.  The playoff selection committee must specifically include 5 Power Five A.D.s.  No one associated with a G5 is guaranteed inclusion on the committee.

It is debatable whether that will lead to bias in the selections.  I imagine some of them will try to be perfectly fair.  But some in the P5 world have been pretty open with their thoughts that G5 teams deserve no seat at the playoff table.

Sure. So, it means nothing. 

[mgfan]

If the Oregon and Washington don’t go to the big 12, other schools better think about jumping to the pac 12. You can bet those 2 schools are doing everything they can to get into the big 10. Then you are left with nothing much better than MWC & AAC with worse travel. 

[NT80]

6 hours ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

They will not crumble and shut (I assume you mean) down.  They will be able to sustain in some form, even if only a few of the present PAC teams remain.  Any MWC team they invite will jump immediately, as would most AAC teams.  Which is why bad things happening to the PAC is probably bad for the AAC.

Leftover MWC programs will be consumed by the AAC, eliminating a competing conference.  A good thing.

[outoftown]

8 hours ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

It is still likely that the PAC's new media deal would approach $30 million per school.  Mountain West schools only get $4 million per school.  While the $34 million exit fee is nothing to sneeze at, the financials alone would still make it far preferable to go to the PAC.  That's true even if they get a smaller share.

EDIT: After thinking about it, $30 million is probably very optimistic at this point.  But suffice it to say that the PAC's media deal will provide many more millions of dollars per school every year than the MWC's will.

The probywith this is, that not only will the share be probably only half, but also that you have to front the money. That can be real tricky for some schools. Add that when losing further schools there will likely be clauses reducing the deal, and it's not a slam dunk anymore. If Oregon/Washington go (independent of B10, the deal will dip) if all 4 corners go additionally you may be back to single digit millions (of which you don't get full share), have spent lots of exit fees and be stuck with high travel

[wardly]

8 hours ago, outoftown said:

The probywith this is, that not only will the share be probably only half, but also that you have to front the money. That can be real tricky for some schools. Add that when losing further schools there will likely be clauses reducing the deal, and it's not a slam dunk anymore. If Oregon/Washington go (independent of B10, the deal will dip) if all 4 corners go additionally you may be back to single digit millions (of which you don't get full share), have spent lots of exit fees and be stuck with high travel

Granted that whatever the PAC media money turns out to be it will be far greater than the MWC. However  schools like Oregon are looking at long term . If the PAC 12 gets $25 million to $30 million its half of what the BIG 10 schools are receiving. As the disparity between SEC and BIG 10 media money continues to widen from the PAC 12, AAC, and BIG 12 receive the ability to compete with the two "BIGS" widens as well. Regardless of what the PAC 12 final financial numbers are Oregon must move to the BIG 10 in order to continue to be a national brand. The remaining "4 Corners Schools " would be best served by moving to the BIG 12 and let the remaining PAC 12 programs merge with some but probably not all of the MWC. The BIG 12 is playing  musical chairs by telling Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah that they only have one seat available. Lets see who blinks first and jumps ship.

[DeepGreen]

16 hours ago, NM Green said:

It’s fascinating. For the first time ever as a UNT fan I get to sit back like an SEC’er and watch programs eat their own. UNT has always been part of the not invited but Wants in club or joining the league that has just been gutted club. This is a rare sight line. 

What I would like to see happen is:

ASU and Zona - go Big 12. They fit this league. They expand the league just west enough and bring good bball and late night football games. 

Utah - forced to big 12. They won’t go willingly, but like TAMU had to swallow that rivalry with Texas again. The Holy War must return.  Or they will be in an elevated Mountain West. They have a long shot at the Big but make them decide. Stick around and take your chances or bolt to complete the mountain expansion sweep. 

The PAC - expand with a slew of G5 teams. This pushes Oregon and Washington to the brink and the Big. Their media deal gets pushed to steaming and mid week games. SMU now joins the elevated Mountain West with a worse viewership scheduling situation. 

A word to our friends:

Memphis - I look forward to developing that football and basketball rivalry in Denton and Tennessee.

SMU, Rice and Tulane - you fit the PAC profile. You’ve got decisions to make. 

USF - look forward to getting to know you. That FAU rivalry will become REAL. 

UTSA - don’t get tempted to go west.

Mountain West - go if you can but Colorado State and Air Force should look to AAC to swing through Big 12 country where the Buffs will be lurking.

The new PAC post major program defections:

Stanford

Cal

Washington State

Oregon State

SDSU

SMU

Tulane

Rice

Boise State

UNLV

Hawaii

Fresno State

The new PAC is above recognized quality of the AAC with fewer eyeballs and worse scheduling. The AAC gets prime opportunity to build off its major market teams recent success and gets to reload strategically. 

GMG

And that, my friends, is a watered down PAC.

[MrAlien]

I dont see how their deal gets close to $30M, viewers tuned in to watch UCLA and USC play, those are nationally recognized programs, the rest are just regional draws.  

[NT80]

1 hour ago, MrAlien said:

I dont see how their deal gets close to $30M, viewers tuned in to watch UCLA and USC play, those are nationally recognized programs, the rest are just regional draws.  

Much of the new PAC media deal is said to be on random streaming platforms (subscriptions) instead of main broadcast channels.  General sports fans across the country won’t sign up just to watch some Cal vs Oregon St game on late.  The PAC viewership will be way down.

[Mike Jackson]

21 hours ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

Any MWC team they invite will jump immediately, as would most AAC teams.

None of the MWC teams can leave without some financial help.  The help either comes in the form of a closer to full share of the new Pac ## payout or a break on the 34 million they would owe the MWC by leaving.  SDSU is the program probably in the best spot financially to make the move and even they might not leave if have to pay the full 34 million and take less than a 70% share of the new PAC payout.   Most AAC could leave because I believe the exit fee for them is significantly lower but that isn't a sure thing depending on the number we fans don't have access to easily. 

19 hours ago, rws69 said:

He listed Colorado State, San Diego State, SMU, UNLV, Tulane, South Florida, Memphis, Boise State, Fresno State, Tulsa, and Rice.

Tulane, South Florida and Memphis are wasting their time chasing the PAC if the PAC retains everyone one they have today imo.   The travel would be ridiculously costly without all 3 of them joining and another program on or east of I-35.   That logistical cost and maybe getting 50% of the new PAC deal which would likely only be around +10 million would not be a financially sound move.  Because you also have to consider the buyout for these AAC teams and the +7 million per school they were getting in 2022.   If you are getting around a 5 million per year raise and owe 10 million buyout with a 50%, 70%, or 120% increase in logistics costs, the move become less attractive.  

With that said of all teams listed South Florida seems particularly far fetched.  Flying to any of the remaining Pac schools is over 4 hours non-stop and almost 6 hours to the schools near San Francisco and further north.   Add in boarding, getting off the plane, and just getting to the hotel you kill a whole day each way.   That is fine for football with all games on Saturday or Friday night.   But games any other day of week for non-revenue sports and men's basketball that is a killer.  And most DI basketball players aren't delusional enough to not take academics serious 

 

17 hours ago, NM Green said:

SMU, Rice and Tulane - you fit the PAC profile. You’ve got decisions to make. 

I don't know where that thought is coming from except from the visit the Pac 12 commissioner made to SMU months ago.   When you really look at it beyond just "high level academics" they aren't a fit.  Stanford is the only private university left in the current Pac 12.  Stanford by is more prestigious internationally than either any of these private schools.  Stanford is bigger than any of these schools and more consistent in sports than any of them.    SMU only has the Bush Jr family.  Not minimizing having a former president as an alumni at all but the pool of prominent alumni is just deeper at Stanford.  And if we were crafting a Mount Rushmore of presidents post Teddy Roosevelt, Bush Jr probably isn't on it.  Also if I am in the Pac meetings I am cautioning adding any private school smaller than Stanford.   They aren't going to bring in casual CFB fans and the potential to do that is what media distributers are looking for.  

  "It is great the UNT & SMU are in large market DFW and already have a rivalry.   Sellout a few of those rivalry games.  Sellout a few mid season games with TV viewership numbers reflecting that and get back in contact with us". - Media Distributer Representative.  

Ideally, from a UNT perspective and good of CFB as a whole,  I want the PAC to survive with 10 programs.   I think the 9 they have now and adding SDSU.   But if 9 don't remain together, I want Big 12 to go to 16.   Big 12 with with Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington give me a lot of appointment TV games when UNT isn't at home.  

But to me original Big 12 (maybe swapping Baylor for Houston) would have been perfect.  Greed and political meddling ruined it.   I guess we should have all seen this greed directed crumble of CFB coming.  But with people like Late Kick with Josh Pate whistling through the carnage of rivalries dead like it is no big deal, I understand why most are oblivious.   When it really hits the fan and streaming outlets start seeing how much of their purchased inventory isn't appointment TV there will be a painful market correction. 

[Zeleny' Orel]

1 hour ago, Mike Jackson said:

None of the MWC teams can leave without some financial help.  The help either comes in the form of a closer to full share of the new Pac ## payout or a break on the 34 million they would owe the MWC by leaving.  SDSU is the program probably in the best spot financially to make the move and even they might not leave if have to pay the full 34 million and take less than a 70% share of the new PAC payout.   Most AAC could leave because I believe the exit fee for them is significantly lower but that isn't a sure thing depending on the number we fans don't have access to easily. 

Tulane, South Florida and Memphis are wasting their time chasing the PAC if the PAC retains everyone one they have today imo.   The travel would be ridiculously costly without all 3 of them joining and another program on or east of I-35.   That logistical cost and maybe getting 50% of the new PAC deal which would likely only be around +10 million would not be a financially sound move.  Because you also have to consider the buyout for these AAC teams and the +7 million per school they were getting in 2022.   If you are getting around a 5 million per year raise and owe 10 million buyout with a 50%, 70%, or 120% increase in logistics costs, the move become less attractive.  

With that said of all teams listed South Florida seems particularly far fetched.  Flying to any of the remaining Pac schools is over 4 hours non-stop and almost 6 hours to the schools near San Francisco and further north.   Add in boarding, getting off the plane, and just getting to the hotel you kill a whole day each way.   That is fine for football with all games on Saturday or Friday night.   But games any other day of week for non-revenue sports and men's basketball that is a killer.  And most DI basketball players aren't delusional enough to not take academics serious 

 

I don't know where that thought is coming from except from the visit the Pac 12 commissioner made to SMU months ago.   When you really look at it beyond just "high level academics" they aren't a fit.  Stanford is the only private university left in the current Pac 12.  Stanford by is more prestigious internationally than either any of these private schools.  Stanford is bigger than any of these schools and more consistent in sports than any of them.    SMU only has the Bush Jr family.  Not minimizing having a former president as an alumni at all but the pool of prominent alumni is just deeper at Stanford.  And if we were crafting a Mount Rushmore of presidents post Teddy Roosevelt, Bush Jr probably isn't on it.  Also if I am in the Pac meetings I am cautioning adding any private school smaller than Stanford.   They aren't going to bring in casual CFB fans and the potential to do that is what media distributers are looking for.  

  "It is great the UNT & SMU are in large market DFW and already have a rivalry.   Sellout a few of those rivalry games.  Sellout a few mid season games with TV viewership numbers reflecting that and get back in contact with us". - Media Distributer Representative.  

Ideally, from a UNT perspective and good of CFB as a whole,  I want the PAC to survive with 10 programs.   I think the 9 they have now and adding SDSU.   But if 9 don't remain together, I want Big 12 to go to 16.   Big 12 with with Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington give me a lot of appointment TV games when UNT isn't at home.  

But to me original Big 12 (maybe swapping Baylor for Houston) would have been perfect.  Greed and political meddling ruined it.   I guess we should have all seen this greed directed crumble of CFB coming.  But with people like Late Kick with Josh Pate whistling through the carnage of rivalries dead like it is no big deal, I understand why most are oblivious.   When it really hits the fan and streaming outlets start seeing how much of their purchased inventory isn't appointment TV there will be a painful market correction. 

Although the Bush LIbrary is located on the SMU campus, he is not a graduate of SMU.  He graduated from Yale.  His wife, Laura, is a graduate of SMU.