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Hindsight: Timing becoming a problem? If we're making a change?


TheColonyEagle

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I posted a tweet in another thread about there already being 8 vacancies and November just started. Not to mention, here in our backyard, all 3 FBS schools could be looking for a coach at the same time. If a change is going to be made...it needs to be made. It can't be the buy out stopping us because apparently the department has enough $$ given the raise our AD just got. 

The time to make the change may have been after the Marshall game. But now.....we're heading into the easier part of our schedule. Littrell could run off 3 more wins. (I think we'll be favored at home vs UTEP if we beat USM which we should) Are we going to be going into the last game at home vs UTSA at 5-6 with a chance to get bowl eligible? It's certainly possible. I still don't think he's back next year and if not, Wren is either going to have to wait until the end of the year when coaches will be off the board or fire him after a win between now and then (which is not a good look...I get "sending the message that our bar is higher" but I don't know what kind of message it sends to the player and potential coaches. It's just not normally done)

In hindsight, should we have pulled the trigger already?

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2 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

Has Baker ever done anything publicly?  The McCasland hire was pretty quiet until we paid ASU and McCasland was on board.  Same with the conference move.  He was working on it for over a year silently.  Wren knows what he is doing.

Are you saying he could already be working on it behind the scenes? If so...I'm down. Hope that's the case.

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6 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

Are you saying he could already be working on it behind the scenes? If so...I'm down. Hope that's the case.

He is working on it but keep in mind that we really don’t even know who is available until after the season is over and we are also ina a year where there are a ton of openings and we sit pretty far down the food chain.  We won’t be able to get the prime rib and likely will have to settle for the hamburger steak with onions.

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so the biggest effect that a coaching change has is related to recruiting, and honestly i don't know enough about the early signing period to understand how a coaching change could influence that (a little help here @BillySee58?) but in terms of 'available coaches' there are probably 100 guys in the coaching universe that could lead North Texas to success over the next few years, 80 of them probably aren't going to consider North Texas, and 15 of the remaining probably will be overlooked. hell for all we know, Littrell may be one of those 20. 

All i'm trying to say is that there is no shortage of good coaches out there, all of these things are just a matter of research and luck. 

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6 minutes ago, golfingomez said:

 but in terms of 'available coaches' there are probably 100 guys in the coaching universe that could lead North Texas to success over the next few years, 80 of them probably aren't going to consider North Texas, and 15 of the remaining probably will be overlooked. hell for all we know, Littrell may be one of those 20. 

All i'm trying to say is that there is no shortage of good coaches out there, all of these things are just a matter of research and luck. 

I buy that

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27 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

Has Baker ever done anything publicly?  The McCasland hire was pretty quiet until we paid ASU and McCasland was on board.  Same with the conference move.  He was working on it for over a year silently.  Wren knows what he is doing.

Yeah, this could all (and really should ) be getting taken care of behind the scenes.

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8 minutes ago, Cooke County Kid said:

I think they already selected the new coach, that is why WB got the extension. They are hiring Graham H to be the HC and to save money SL is the new offensive coordinator. 😉

GO MEAN GREEN!!!
WIN GAMES!!!!!!!

He’s already hired Saban away from Bama, just wait until December 1st

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2 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

Has Baker ever done anything publicly?  The McCasland hire was pretty quiet until we paid ASU and McCasland was on board.  Same with the conference move.  He was working on it for over a year silently.  Wren knows what he is doing.

If Wren does things like his good friend Rhoades at Baylor, none of us will know ANYTHING until the ink is dry. The only leaks in the Rhule and Aranda hires came right at the end and from the other school. I was very interested in both of those hires and have good friends deep in the Ath Dept there. I never had a clue which way it was going. 

It's just rumor, speculation and fan talk right now with UNT, Tech, TCU, and SMU (if Dykes goes to TCU). 

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3 minutes ago, fbcoach said:

If Wren does things like his good friend Rhoades at Baylor, none of us will know ANYTHING until the ink is dry. The only leaks in the Rhule and Aranda hires came right at the end and from the other school. I was very interested in both of those hires and have good friends deep in the Ath Dept there. I never had a clue which way it was going. 

It's just rumor, speculation and fan talk right now with UNT, Tech, TCU, and SMU (if Dykes goes to TCU). 

You are a very insightful poster to have. Thank you

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Latest Hot Seat rankings from CBS. Littrell is up there:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2021-hot-seat-rankings-dan-mullen-makes-debut-with-chip-kelly-justin-fuente-among-coaches-heating-up/

With Justin Fuente and Scott Frost. Although they falsely claim Wren hired Littrell.

The Mean Green have slipped badly since back-to-back nine-win seasons. Littrell is 10-21 since (2-6 in 2021). AD Wren Baker just got an extension through 2029, which means....

 

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On 11/4/2021 at 11:05 AM, TheColonyEagle said:

Wren is either going to have to wait until the end of the year when coaches will be off the board

Just wanted to add to this..... If we get into a bidding war after the season with someone we could have locked up by making the move earlier, this is a huge red flag for me from a management standpoint. 

I could be mistaken but I think the money situation/scenarios would look like this:

Controlled Variable
(1) Keep SL/Fire SL: You're paying him either way, the money is the same.

Uncontrolled Variables
(A) Fire Before End of Season: Sign a new coach early and you're not in a bidding war with anyone else, save $

(B) Fire After Season: New Hire has more options with more vacancies and you may end up paying more $$$

1A < 1B

*I had to look that arrow/alligator mouth thing up again to make sure I pointed it the right and put green as good and red as bad just in case, I think I got it though.

--------------------

If anyone's got eyes on the airport, could be a little bit of this action going on, Miss Terry Saban goes to work:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/time-miss-terry-went-job-014617450.html

Pretty neat story I think, and if you're married, sending your wife down to visit somewhere, during the season, on an all expenses paid trip, where she'll be wined and dined for a few days to 'scout' things out is quite a boss move.

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Don’t get the false impression that “locking someone up early” will prevent a bigger fish from snapping them up before they ever coach a game. It is wiser to plan behind the scenes and watch a clearer picture unfold of all the jobs available this year.

I can’t remember the football coaches that jumped ship before ever coaching a game but I know someone in our own athletic department did.

https://acusports.com/news/2011/7/18/MBB_0718113941.aspx

Edited by Cr1028
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9 minutes ago, Cr1028 said:

Don’t get the false impression that “locking someone up early” will prevent a bigger fish from snapping them up before they ever coach a game. It is wiser to plan behind the scenes and watch a clearer picture unfold of all the jobs available this year.

I can’t remember the football coaches that jumped ship before ever coaching a game but I know someone in our own athletic department did.

https://acusports.com/news/2011/7/18/MBB_0718113941.aspx

I did not know this story... I wonder if all the Todd Graham haters on the board knew about this...

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7 minutes ago, Cr1028 said:

Don’t get the false impression that “locking someone up early” will prevent a bigger fish from snapping them up before they ever coach a game.

I completely forgot that McCasland did that, I knew there was something keeping me from fully embracing the dude and I could never put my finger on it!!

Yeah that's definitely a possibility but I wouldn't put the chances of that happening above 10%...... I think AD's at G5 schools should ask that question at some point, probably later in the process, and you could word it and approach it a couple of different ways like, "Whats your dream job in coaching?" or more direct: "North Texas probably wasn't your dream job coming up, but if you rattle of some 10-win seasons and a couple bowl games and had the pick of the land, what schools catch your eye?"

Feel it out a little bit, and for some candidates they'd be relieved to have that conversation, especially if it's a place like Alabama, probably not going to be opening up for at least 5 years or so (just an example, I don't know the ins and outs of 'Bama, they may be crazy enough to fire Saban after a 3-Loss season!).

I mean even as fans/alumni, we'd all love to say that if we were coaching at UNT we'd stay and never leave, but when a Texas, USC, Ohio State, or Florida backs that Brinks truck up, and the smell of competing for a National Championship begins to overwhelm you when they open the doors...... you've only got one life, pretty hard to turn down.

So if the risk is low (that risk is always going to be there) and you can save $100k+ a year by avoiding a bidding war, that's got to be a strategy to seriously consider.

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11 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

Considering McCasland and Mosley still work together, I would say McCasland handled this correctly even if it was an odd departure. I would guess Graham wouldn’t be welcome back by some of his former employers. 

Not to excuse it too much but he left for his alma mater. JJ did that and we all understood. Hell, back in my academic advising days, I left a great job at another university for a job at UNT. Just could pass it up even though I had only been in the position less than a year. 

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13 hours ago, Cr1028 said:

Don’t get the false impression that “locking someone up early” will prevent a bigger fish from snapping them up before they ever coach a game. It is wiser to plan behind the scenes and watch a clearer picture unfold of all the jobs available this year.

I can’t remember the football coaches that jumped ship before ever coaching a game but I know someone in our own athletic department did.

https://acusports.com/news/2011/7/18/MBB_0718113941.aspx

Wow and he left ASU after only one season? He is lucky Briles doesn’t coach basketball and he must of been a good kid in high school.

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