Which Outcome Is More Likely

[AustinFromUNT]

Last season we went 5-8. Which outcome do you think is more likely to happen this season, we win 2 more or we lose 2 more? Will we go 7-6 or will we go 3-9?

[Green Lantern]

Much more likely we win 7.

[untjim1995]

7 should be the answer, especially if we go bowling, as you're suggesting with a 7-6 record.

[UNTLifer]

2 more.

[Cr1028]

Our history would say 3-9 but with  the talent we have and Reffett calling the defense, I just can't see us winning fewer than 5 games and for that reason I will also say 7-5.

[MGNation92]

I think it is entirely reliant on our OL play.

I'm gonna say 6-6 but 7-5 is possible. I think we will be on a very thin line between 7-5 and 4-8

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

6-6, maybe 7-5 if we have a QB who can make the offense work.  Hell, not just QB, but also OLs and WRs.  Many, many questions on that side of the ball outside of Jeffrey Wilson.

The above posts are correct...any small thing results in a three or four win season.  People talk about Fine being injured.  If Wilson is injured we are in even bigger trouble because he's really the only consistent offensive threat we have. 

At this point in history, another three or four win season would be disastrous for us as a program.  I'd even say another five win season is bad.

We are already not competing well for FBS-level recruits.  Throw in the 19th losing season over the past 23, and it will get worse. 

[Huff]

I don't think this team has enough talent to win seven games.   If our quarterback and/or running back go down it could get really ugly.   If those are my only two choices I will go with the lower number but I really think it will be about 5-7 again.

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

We open the season at home against Lamar.  I'm going to say that if we don't beat them by two or three TDs, we're going to have major problems this season because it's not going to be any easier than Lamar.

Are there other easy schools on the schedule after that?  Yes, in theory.  SMU shouldn't be difficult.  But, if we can't handle Lamar well, we won't do well on the "road" against SMU.  Iowa...forget it.  With no reason to keep the score down due to coaching pal McCarney being on the sideline, Ferentz will name the score in this one. 

(Maybe because Ferentz, Stoops, and McCarney were all Iowa guys, Ferentz has some mercy on Stoops' old FB Littrell.  But, Ferentz is under a sh*t ton of pressure to not choke again this season...even moreso now that his buddy Stoops has retired and he carries the mantle of longest tenured coach.  He has much less to show for it than Stoops...and, Hawkeye faithful remind him of it constantly.)

UAB...again, like Lamar, this one should be a cake walk because it is their first year back to football.  If they are within single digits of us, the road gets really, really long to even five wins.

With a schedule that screams 2-2 or 3-1 to open the season, because of talent issues, we realistically could also be 1-3 before September is over.  And, that's pretty sad.

Remember the post that showed how we came back in three of our five wins in 2016 when Jeffrey Wilson went on second half tears to tie or win games?  That is where we are.  It's on Jeffrey Wilson at this point.  He wore out at the end of last season.  Can his body handle the stress of being The Man all year long?

Everything else we have is just based on hope.  We hope the QB play will be better.  We hope some WRs will emerge.  We hope the OL will gel quickly.  We hope the defensive can muster a pass rush and stop the run.  We hope a secondary can be cobbled together and gel.  We hope the linebackers can stop the run and cover when necessary.

We even hope a new punter can be found!

We hope all of these things because there wasn't really much consistency last year.  And, the off season hasn't really changed much in the way of talent at any position.

[GrayEagle]

For the record I don't like the recruiting results either.  But it's too early to condemn the entire recruiting staff and their selections.  They haven't had the luxury of being able to build any relationships until this recruiting class.  Seth has only been in P5 programs so he should know three star talent when he sees it.  This year's offerings have been thoroughly evaluated and I believe that the coaches have seen something in each recruit that translates to team improvement.  Some of the talent is raw, mostly late developing players, and you don't wan't to miss the true jewels.  Since heart is not a measurable there will be misses on even the three and four stars occasionally.  If this were at the end of their senior season you would have a much better perspective of how they stack up against other G5 opponents, especially conference mates.  

The alternative, wait until you see who is being recruited by others in the conference, will get you killed.  In many cases so will waiting until recruits are evaluated by rating services or seeing who will offer.   That means that we'll see some NAs and few or no offers from time to time.  Now, if those are the only offers that we are making, we'll be fighting a losing cause.  Look at what's happening.  The vast majority of our offers are for players who end up with ten or more offers and most are from P5 schools.  

Recruiting is so much more sophisticated than in the early days due to videos of all games by highschoolers.  Staffs go over these videos with a fine tooth comb on the players that catch their attention.  They also study the rated players and who has offered them before they make their selections.  It will take at least two years before we know whether those evaluations are on the mark.  

Edited June 9, 2017 by GrayEagle

[UNT 90 Grad]

1 hour ago, Huff said:

I don't think this team has enough talent to win seven games.   If our quarterback and/or running back go down it could get really ugly.   If those are my only two choices I will go with the lower number but I really think it will be about 5-7 again.

Just curious, if there is enough separation in quarterback performance to give you concern if the starter goes down, who are you expecting to get the QB start this year?

[Huff]

10 minutes ago, UNT 90 Grad said:

Just curious, if there is enough separation in quarterback performance to give you concern if the starter goes down, who are you expecting to get the QB start this year?

I am not sure if there is anyone other than Fine that has ever taken a snap in a college football game so my guess is that he would be our starter.   I am guessing that Shanbour would be our next in line.  He may turn out to be great but is a total unknown to me at this point.  

[southsideguy]

i will take the over, 6-7 wins this year.

[BTG_Fan1]

1 hour ago, Huff said:

I am not sure if there is anyone other than Fine that has ever taken a snap in a college football game so my guess is that he would be our starter.   I am guessing that Shanbour would be our next in line.  He may turn out to be great but is a total unknown to me at this point.  

Quinn got a series or 2 in the WKU game last year but nothing solid. 

-----------------------------------------

About the Record, it can go either way but likely should go up. These guys having another year in the system, SL and the staff getting to bring in their guys, and the added bowl practices will help. But 2 position groups are critical to this year, the OL and QB

We did not see Fine progress last year, and we have heard Quinn looks good but if he can't beat out Fine then is he really likely to be better than Fine? We do have 2 potential boom or bust QB recruits in Izzy and Pearson (who I think they would like to RS). But if the season does turn into a wash, SL and the staff need to play the young guys and find out for sure who can or who can not play. If they wanna keep Pearson RS then don't use him at all, and then play the likes of Fine, Quinn, Izzy, O'Hara, etc and figure out what you have with them. 

The OL was a major problem but with the additions of the JUCO OL and the freshman it should give us options. The offense will only go as far as this OL can take us. 

[meanrob]

3 hours ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

6-6, maybe 7-5 if we have a QB who can make the offense work.  Hell, not just QB, but also OLs and WRs.  Many, many questions on that side of the ball outside of Jeffrey Wilson.

The above posts are correct...any small thing results in a three or four win season.  People talk about Fine being injured.  If Wilson is injured we are in even bigger trouble because he's really the only consistent offensive threat we have. 

At this point in history, another three or four win season would be disastrous for us as a program.  I'd even say another five win season is bad.

We are already not competing well for FBS-level recruits.  Throw in the 19th losing season over the past 23, and it will get worse. 

Why is that? Worse than what Mac did to us? I still think it takes until year three at minimum to get us over the .500 hump. Most turnarounds take a few years. 

I'm thinking 4-8 or 5-7 and keeping the expectations low until it's proven we can block anybody and get decent quarterback play. The talent level across the board just isn't there yet and I can be patient but the recruiting/coaching of players has to get better. Like you said in another post, most optimism right now is based on hope. 

If anybody is predicting 8-4, they might want to go back and watch the UTEP game highlights...er, lowlights. 

 

 

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

2 hours ago, meanrob said:

Why is that? Worse than what Mac did to us? I still think it takes until year three at minimum to get us over the .500 hump. Most turnarounds take a few years. 

I'm thinking 4-8 or 5-7 and keeping the expectations low until it's proven we can block anybody and get decent quarterback play. The talent level across the board just isn't there yet and I can be patient but the recruiting/coaching of players has to get better. Like you said in another post, most optimism right now is based on hope. 

If anybody is predicting 8-4, they might want to go back and watch the UTEP game highlights...er, lowlights. 

 

 

Recruiting.  We are already recruiting at the FCS level.  If we can't win in the C-USA....

FBS recruits are already not what we're selling.  Another losing season and we are selling what to recruits?  More hoping and wishing?

[meanrob]

4 hours ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

Recruiting.  We are already recruiting at the FCS level.  If we can't win in the C-USA....

FBS recruits are already not what we're selling.  Another losing season and we are selling what to recruits?  More hoping and wishing?

I agree recruiting is the most important thing right now. But if winning has to come before we can get recruits to come here, then we hired the wrong coach and staff. I can't see a big difference in 4-8 and 6-6 when it comes to recruiting. Hell, Littrell should have most of his class lined up before the season ends. 

[Cr1028]

5 hours ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

Recruiting.  We are already recruiting at the FCS level.  If we can't win in the C-USA....

FBS recruits are already not what we're selling.  Another losing season and we are selling what to recruits?  More hoping and wishing?

Tell that to guys like Ladarius Hamilton, Rico Bussey, Khari Muhammad, and Tyler Wilson. Just because we were the only ones smart enough to offer a player doesn't make them FCS level players. 

This class we lost a couple to UH on signing day but we had two more just as good in our back pocket. These coaches have shown (based on their first class) that they can evaluate talent very well.  I was impressed with the number of players that Littrell got on such short notice that were able to make an impact.

Edited June 10, 2017 by Cr1028

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

I wouldn't be telling them anything they don't already know.  Some of you act as though the player don't know which players are better than others.  They know.  In fact, they know better than you do.  The practice against their own teammates and play the games against the opponents. 

And, that is why, you do not have heavily-recruited FBS-type athletes committing here. 

I wish that it weren't that way for the majority of our recruits; but, it is. 

 

[untjim1995]

1 hour ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

I wouldn't be telling them anything they don't already know.  Some of you act as though the player don't know which players are better than others.  They know.  In fact, they know better than you do.  The practice against their own teammates and play the games against the opponents. 

And, that is why, you do not have heavily-recruited FBS-type athletes committing here. 

I wish that it weren't that way for the majority of our recruits; but, it is. 

 

People on here don't want to realize that the reputation we earned over the last 35 years with TX HS coaches and parents is basically the fire-breathing dragon that burns ever head coach we have hired since Fry left here. Maybe Littrell is the one that finally slays that dragon--but right now, he's building an army of kids that aren't that coveted or kids that were coveted and went somewhere else and then came here because they couldn't play at the other school. Johnny Jones made that work as the hoops coach here until the program became good enough on its own to start getting in some solid talent that others also wanted badly. This has to be SL's preferred way to try and build this up--because he, like JJ, isn't a real solid public speaker--McCarney sucked at recruiting, but it wasn't because he didn't try as hard as he could to sell the opportunity here. DMac truly believed that UNT was just gonna be a USF starter-kit, just get going and watch lots of Texas HS talent just migrate to Denton--but he couldn't get that talent, especially at QB, to ever come here and it led to the worst loss in modern college football history. But Littrell's offense should get the attention of QBs and other skilled players, even if his style is more reserved and quiet in public.

Until the TX HS Coaches and parents look at us as a program that their kids would be a great fit for, we are going to continue to see the other SBCUSA schools out-recruit us. Only UTEP has had recruiting issues like we have had over time, in part because of its remote location away from the bigger population centers in Texas. Texas State and UTSA both can sell to recruits a lot of playing time, a program built upon growing into something, and they don't have apathy holding back generations of alumni and fans like we do.

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

After two recruiting classes with McCarney, I began to post concerns about the supposed defensive line guru not landing quality defensive tackles.  QB for sure.  But, for a guy sporting a national championship ring as DL coach for the Florida Gators, I expected more.  

And, there's nothing wrong with that.  We're told to expect more, and for good reason:  when a coach is fired and another guy is hired, you expect better results, not wheel spinning.  It became evident, though, after two McCarney classes that he was not going to land us any better DTs than Dodge or Dickey had. 

Well...so, at that point, to me, you have to start wondering aloud about what you've been sold.  I'm getting there pretty rapidly with this crew.  And, moreso because the school and athletic department have upped the ante rather quickly with a new contract for $1 million a year after a 5-7 regular season showing.  

To me, you have to call it like you see it.  Littrell has two largely unimpressive classes signed.  Unimpressive to the degree, anyway, that they are not much different that what we've seen in here before. 

UTEP is one thing - remote, as you say - and I agree. It's just a hard sell out there.  Your rival is New Mexico State, and it's just not convenient for either other schools - or, even your own players' family and friends to just hop in the car for a weekender to see you play.

UTSA is a completely different animal.  They are outrecruiting us and beating us on the field.  It didn't bother me before.  It is now getting bothersome. 

There is no reason they should be signing 10 3-star recruits to our four, as happened in February.  There is no way we should be piling up recruit after recruit with no FBS offers, when they are getting recruits with multiple FBS offers, G5 though they may be.  

Something's not right.  And, the two obvious answers are the most controversial:  (1) either they are cheating, or (2) our coaching staff is completely lost on the recruiting trail; well paid, but lost. 

When the current respective hires were made, we laughed at UTSA for only getting a position coach, whereas we were getting a coordinator.  So far, looks like the position coach is way out ahead.

[BillySee58]

On 6/9/2017 at 11:05 PM, Cr1028 said:

Tell that to guys like Ladarius Hamilton, Rico Bussey, Khari Muhammad, and Tyler Wilson. Just because we were the only ones smart enough to offer a player doesn't make them FCS level players.

Hamilton was offered by two other FBS schools and Bussey was offered by eight other FBS schools.

[Cr1028]

3 hours ago, BillySee58 said:

Hamilton was offered by two other FBS schools and Bussey was offered by eight other FBS schools.

So do offers from TxState and ULaLa qualify as a good recruit or no?

[BillySee58]

34 minutes ago, Cr1028 said:

So do offers from TxState and ULaLa qualify as a good recruit or no?

I never said that or implied that. Literally just stated facts. After you mentioned Hamilton and Bussey, you said "Just because we were the only ones smart enough to offer a player doesn't make them FCS level players."

The structure of your post implies that we were the only ones smart enough to offer Ladarius Hamilton and Rico Bussey, which was not the case. Especially when placed next to two players who were. Just making sure that fact is not lost.

 

[BTG_Fan1]

8 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

People on here don't want to realize that the reputation we earned over the last 35 years with TX HS coaches and parents is basically the fire-breathing dragon that burns ever head coach we have hired since Fry left here. Maybe Littrell is the one that finally slays that dragon--but right now, he's building an army of kids that aren't that coveted or kids that were coveted and went somewhere else and then came here because they couldn't play at the other school. Johnny Jones made that work as the hoops coach here until the program became good enough on its own to start getting in some solid talent that others also wanted badly. This has to be SL's preferred way to try and build this up--because he, like JJ, isn't a real solid public speaker--McCarney sucked at recruiting, but it wasn't because he didn't try as hard as he could to sell the opportunity here. DMac truly believed that UNT was just gonna be a USF starter-kit, just get going and watch lots of Texas HS talent just migrate to Denton--but he couldn't get that talent, especially at QB, to ever come here and it led to the worst loss in modern college football history. But Littrell's offense should get the attention of QBs and other skilled players, even if his style is more reserved and quiet in public.

Until the TX HS Coaches and parents look at us as a program that their kids would be a great fit for, we are going to continue to see the other SBCUSA schools out-recruit us. Only UTEP has had recruiting issues like we have had over time, in part because of its remote location away from the bigger population centers in Texas. Texas State and UTSA both can sell to recruits a lot of playing time, a program built upon growing into something, and they don't have apathy holding back generations of alumni and fans like we do.

I do agree that the thing that hurts UNT the most is how it is viewed throughout the entire state.Either people have not heard of UNT,  they only know it as a school that is has been a loser for years, or being one of the more liberal arts schools in the state. It hurts UNT that when people see or hear UNT that they automatically think of it as a loser, or a back up plan. SL and his staff are changing that thought process of HS coaches thinking that, and the coaches are out there meeting with players and their families selling them on what UNT WILL BE and not what UNT HAS BEEN. 

From what has been said by Vito in his blogs, by JayD on the podcast is that HS coaches have made a shift in how UNT is viewed. It takes a lot of work to get rid of negative thoughts about UNT. Getting HS Coaches to buy in and accept and believe in HS is a major thing. HS Coaches are important because of the relationships and because they are very important in some of these players recruiting processes. I'm sure @GMG24 may know of how other coaches have seen a change between the old staff and this new one, and that he can also talk about the importance of HS Coaches in the recruiting process as well. 

Also, I wasn't on here or know much about the Mac recruiting, but from how people have talked it seemed like Mac and his staff didn't do much recruiting during the season and that they always played catch up nor did they seem to be as available as this current staff. If this is true, it doesn't help having coaches that stay on campus and ones who don't reach out as much as they should like this staff is. SL and his staff may not be "ACE" recruiters but SL is a very smart football mind and coach.