PAC 12 Realignment Talk Mega Thread (All 12 threads merged)

[VideoEagle]

13 hours ago, NT80 said:

School Presidents want Academic fits.  

And cultural and social! Don't forget that cultural fit was the major reason the PAC did not want BYU. The BYU code of conduct is in direct conflict with Cal's and they would not tolerate a school that differed. 

[Rudy]

12 hours ago, NT80 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mohammad Usman Aijaz

 

@muaijaz

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I did the math on the crappleTV deal for the Pac 12. They would need 32.6 million subscribers to get Big 12 numbers. That's a bit less than 10% of America. That's about how many people are currently subscribed to AppleTV. That's a separate +$20/month subscription. Good luck.

 

Bally's is going bankrupt because they can't get enough subscribers for their service which carries pro sports teams.  Good luck Apple  🤣

[VideoEagle]

1 hour ago, Rudy said:

 

Bally's is going bankrupt because they can't get enough subscribers for their service which carries pro sports teams.  Good luck Apple  🤣

Here's an interesting article from Forbes on ESPN launching its own streaming service as it moves away from cable. An interesting quote

Quote

In first quarter 2023, a record 2.3 million U.S. households cancelled their cable subscription. The percentage of households with a cable subscription, is at their lowest penetration, in over three decades.

The requirement of having a cable subscription to get live sports is going to end as everything moves to streaming. With a cable bundle, you have no choices but with streaming you do. The problem is people can be very choosy in the streaming for which they pay.

I don't see how ESPN will be able to continue paying every increasing fees for sports rights. Bally's has shown that the money can and will run out eventually. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2023/06/01/espn-starting-a-streaming-service-is-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-cable/?sh=5497db9e56c7

[TheColonyEagle]

11 minutes ago, VideoEagle said:

Here's an interesting article from Forbes on ESPN launching its own streaming service as it moves away from cable. An interesting quote

The requirement of having a cable subscription to get live sports is going to end as everything moves to streaming. With a cable bundle, you have no choices but with streaming you do. The problem is people can be very choosy in the streaming for which they pay.

I don't see how ESPN will be able to continue paying every increasing fees for sports rights. Bally's has shown that the money can and will run out eventually. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2023/06/01/espn-starting-a-streaming-service-is-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-cable/?sh=5497db9e56c7

That's 100% correct. It's my argument on "what are these media companies getting for their investment?" These programs and sports teams have been living off and depending on this money for a long time. And that money is not there anymore. 

Bally's and the Rangers, is a good example of what's about to happen to college football. Thank GOODNESS the Rangers are now winning and relevant and selling out that stadium. They are playing themselves into relevance and sustaining revenue based on their own performance. Tickets, parking, concessions and apparel may not be enough on it's own...but I would bet it's more than double what it was last year when the Rangers were horrible. I think we're going to see this in college football in the near future. Teams are going to have to generate their OWN revenue and not be able to depend so heavily on any "big brothers" and conference mates to supplement them. For example, the TV dollars that Oregon's profile brought to the Pac12 aren't going to be there for Oregon St anymore. Oregon St is going to have to sell tickets and be responsible for themselves. Same can be said for all the big conferences. The Pac12 just got into a horrible timing situation and I would bet the other conferences are paying attention. That's why Clemson and Florida St are sniffing around elsewhere. Then...the Wake Forests of the world, etc will be in the same situation Oregon St is in eventually. And the thoughts that eventually big time College Football will be 50 teams or so will come true.

 

I say all that to say if some of these programs are smart (and I put our program in this too), the future is going to be regional. These programs are going to have to think with their heads and not their pride and make smart financial decisions. And we may eventually be thinking how lucky we are to be in Texas with so many programs close. 

[wardly]

17 hours ago, NT80 said:

Florida State has hired two law firms to find a defense to get out of their ACC GOR contract (based mostly on loss of revenue compared to other conferences).  Clemson also wants out.  Rumors recently suggest the Big10 will soon offer Oregon, Washington, FSU and Clemson, so that tells me they have found a potential loophole in getting out of the ACC.

My understanding, again based only upon what I read, is FSU and Clemson can't break the contract. If fact, I think that Notre Dame is prohibited from joining any other conference for football other than the ACC until the existing contract expires. However since I am not an attorney nor have seen or read the contract my comments are pure conjecture.

[Green Otaku]

14 hours ago, C Rod said:

 

 

I was watching it and it was very strange. I thought it was a technical issue and then realized they cut the stream and went private. 

[outoftown]

1 hour ago, TheColonyEagle said:

That's 100% correct. It's my argument on "what are these media companies getting for their investment?" These programs and sports teams have been living off and depending on this money for a long time. And that money is not there anymore. 

Bally's and the Rangers, is a good example of what's about to happen to college football. Thank GOODNESS the Rangers are now winning and relevant and selling out that stadium. They are playing themselves into relevance and sustaining revenue based on their own performance. Tickets, parking, concessions and apparel may not be enough on it's own...but I would bet it's more than double what it was last year when the Rangers were horrible. I think we're going to see this in college football in the near future. Teams are going to have to generate their OWN revenue and not be able to depend so heavily on any "big brothers" and conference mates to supplement them. For example, the TV dollars that Oregon's profile brought to the Pac12 aren't going to be there for Oregon St anymore. Oregon St is going to have to sell tickets and be responsible for themselves. Same can be said for all the big conferences. The Pac12 just got into a horrible timing situation and I would bet the other conferences are paying attention. That's why Clemson and Florida St are sniffing around elsewhere. Then...the Wake Forests of the world, etc will be in the same situation Oregon St is in eventually. And the thoughts that eventually big time College Football will be 50 teams or so will come true.

 

I say all that to say if some of these programs are smart (and I put our program in this too), the future is going to be regional. These programs are going to have to think with their heads and not their pride and make smart financial decisions. And we may eventually be thinking how lucky we are to be in Texas with so many programs close. 

I didn't want to hijack the thread, so created a new one about winning and attendance, and attendance increases across the years as I think it speaks to what you say here: UNT needs to bring its own people in. it has been att this, and winning more is a major part of it. There is still good room for imporvement there.

[GrayEagle]

On 7/31/2023 at 12:20 AM, NT80 said:

It will end up being like the AFC vs NFC of college football.   20 teams was the number many were saying the two Super Conferences were aiming for.   But remember, they can't all be winners!  If your team finishes #15-20 in the new league maybe your fans start thinking #1-2 in your old smaller conference wasn't so bad after all.

In addition, if the new teams have moderate success it's going to push the Rutgers, even Maryland further down.  The B1G has already destroyed the Pac 12 now they are trying to destroy the ACC.  When does the GREED stop?  

[C Rod]

George Kliavkoff and SMU are punching the air right now.  

Edited August 2, 2023 by C Rod

[Tom McKrackin]

 

[emmitt01]

59 minutes ago, Tom McKrackin said:

 

If this happens, look for every SMU fan to come over here screaming "I TOLD YOU WE WERE GOING TO THE PAC12!!!! WE ARE RELEVANT...PONY UP!!"

[Harry]

 

[NT80]

2 hours ago, C Rod said:

George Kliavkoff and SMU are punching the air right now.  

Big Ten examining potential additions of Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford to conference

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-ten-examining-potential-additions-of-oregon-washington-california-and-stanford-to-conference/

 

[NT80]

"The Big Ten presidents had shown no interest in adding more schools following the move last summer to gobble up USC and UCLA, partly because the conference didn’t want to be viewed as predatory and partly because of financial complications.

However, Colorado’s move from the Pac-12 to the Big 12 and the potential for Arizona, Arizona State and Utah to do the same has massively destabilized the century-old conference — to the point that the Big Ten could appear as a savior for four of the remaining schools."

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-football/report-uw-oregon-stanford-and-cal-under-consideration-for-membership-by-big-ten/

 

[Rudy]

51 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Cue the $mut posters saying they're in talks with the ACC...

[wardly]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

 

So I am watching College Football News a few hours ago and here is what they said it would cost FSU to leave the ACC. First, $100 million buy out. Second, loss of their Grant of Rights money which is $30 million per year for the next 13 years,or $390 million. The total cost for them to break their contract is $490 million and no media broadcast for any of their sports for 13 years.

[outoftown]

10 hours ago, Rudy said:

Cue the $mut posters saying they're in talks with the ACC...

If you go over to ponyfans, it is really funny how many posts there are about having to get out of a conference with UNT and how many creative ideas are proposed about how they might achieve that. If UNT somehow beats SMU this year, I might get hospitalized to an insane asylum, because of all my laughter. I might meet some of those ponyfan posters there who will have gotten interned for very different reasons.

Edited August 3, 2023 by outoftown

[NT80]

4 minutes ago, outoftown said:

If you go over to ponyfans, it is really funny how many posts there are about having to get out of a conference with UNT and how many creative ideas are proposed about how they might achieve that. If UNT somehow beats SMU this year, I might get hospitalized to an insane asylum, because of all my laughter. I might meet some of those ponyfan posters there who will have gooten interned for very different reasons.

Which opponent do they think will provide the largest crowd at Smut's home football games this season?

La Tech, Prairie View A&M, Charlotte, Tulsa, North Texas, Navy...  humm.

 

[NT80]

45 minutes ago, wardly said:

So I am watching College Football News a few hours ago and here is what they said it would cost FSU to leave the ACC. First, $100 million buy out. Second, loss of their Grant of Rights money which is $30 million per year for the next 13 years,or $390 million. The total cost for them to break their contract is $490 million and no media broadcast for any of their sports for 13 years.

 

Here is an article from May about the  “magnificent seven” ACC schools trying to break the GOR agreement...

https://www.cardiachill.com/2023/5/16/23725902/acc-pittsburgh-panthers-fsu-unc-clemson-virginia-miami-vt-ncstate-sec-big10

 

[NT93]

2 hours ago, Rudy said:

Cue the $mut posters saying they're in talks with the ACC...

I did see a graphic on ESPN about a week ago listing possible ACC targets and SMU was listed.  It was very odd, even more so since I haven’t seen anything else about it.  I expected to come on here the day after I saw the graphic and see a dozen threads about it.  Almost makes me think it was one of those very realistic dreams and it never actually happened.

[NT80]

Florida State would consider leaving ACC due to revenue distribution

"Board chair Peter Collins, who told Warchant.com on Tuesday the grant of rights "will not be the document that keeps us from taking action," told trustees they would hear again from Alford and McCullough soon on a plan moving forward."

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38122958/florida-state-consider-leaving-acc-due-revenue-distribution

[wardly]

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

 

Here is an article from May about the  “magnificent seven” ACC schools trying to break the GOR agreement...

https://www.cardiachill.com/2023/5/16/23725902/acc-pittsburgh-panthers-fsu-unc-clemson-virginia-miami-vt-ncstate-sec-big10

 

Thanks for the post! I hadn't seen this article. Looks like a mess.

[C Rod]

There it is. The 2nd executive session just this week. They gone and the PAC is done. 

[Hunter Green]

13 hours ago, VideoEagle said:

And cultural and social! Don't forget that cultural fit was the major reason the PAC did not want BYU. The BYU code of conduct is in direct conflict with Cal's and they would not tolerate a school that differed. 

But smut has no Code of Conduct. 

[Tom McKrackin]

1 hour ago, C Rod said:

There it is. The 2nd executive session just this week. They gone and the PAC is done. 

I think they will leave too but do you think the Arizona board of regents - who also represent Arizona State - would let one go without the other?