How important is winning to attendance. Some data

[outoftown]

For a thread almost 8 years ago I made a graph, that looked at winning and loosing streaks going into home games, and how it was related to average attendance. I now have 5 more yeas of data (i did not include 2020 and 2021 because of their numbers being low due to the pandemic (although 2021 would not have skewed things by all that much). I looked into streaks coming into the game, because I suspect that the non-hardcore fans look at results/fan mood coming into the game to get hyped / evaluate whether it is worth coming.

It remains that winning and losing streaks of 2 and 3+ games when coming into home games explain almost 70% of the variance in attendance. One also has to say that attendance has also grown across the years, abut to some degree that falls with UNT having had a better decade than the decade prior to that on the field.  if you take 2015 out from there (the Portland state year) it is also fairly linearly increasing, with the year also explaining 60% of variance.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by outoftown

[UNTLifer]

[meanrob]

I love looking at this kind of stuff but the problem is we never have enough consistent winning to see how that would change attendance. Two good years under Seth wasn't enough momentum to overcome a losing third year (or overcoming that killer Tech loss), much less what could happen over a four or five year stretch. 

 

[SilverEagle]

2022 UNT Football Media Almanac - University of North Texas Athletics (meangreensports.com)

Go to page 116 of the Media Almanac. It has the all-time attendance starting in the year 1971. 

There are notable downturns, and occasional spikes. But overall, the yearly attendance has not changed all that much over our Hayden Fry years, or our best years in 1-AA when we were nationally ranked on many occasions. 

We sold out Fouts field (20, 252) for the first time in Oct of 89 against SFA. SFA forgodsakes!

Our subsequent sell-outs and almost sell-outs were against......

Montana, Sept 1994, 20, 730

McNeese St. Oct 1994, 20,733

SMU, Oct 1990, 22,750 (SRO, it would have been more, but the Fire Marshall wouldn't allow any more fans in) 

TCU, Sept 2001, 22,837 (expanded to 30, 500 capacity)

Baylor, Aug 2000, 28,315  (see above)

Baylor, Sept 2003, 29,437.  (See above)

I'm still wondering what brought those sell out numbers (numbers that the Joe Greene/Steve Ramsey teams couldn't draw) to (the very crappy) Fouts field against the likes of SFA, Montana, and McNeese. 

WITH NO TAILGATING ALLOWED!

I would suggest that we need to look at our game day experience. Does it promote a sense of community/belonging or is it just scheduled cooking out, drinking and general chaos....with most people wearing green and then going home when the game starts?

This is the kind of pre-game that will encourage people to go into the stadium and PARTICIPATE!

Even against an opponent like Kent State.

 

 

 

 

[KingDL1]

Winning is very important; it needs to be consistent and extended, in my opinion. When did we win the last Conference Championship?

But there are others like overall enrollment, event marketing, and game day atmosphere. Going out of your way to make an unfriendly student tailgate doesn't seem to help.     

Plus the actual attendance and reported attendance don't come close to matching, which can really skew the math. 

[Matt from A700]

10 hours ago, KingDL1 said:

Winning is very important; it needs to be consistent and extended, in my opinion.

Agreed, and I think it makes an even bigger difference in professional sports. There are so many entertainment options these days in whatever city you're in. Why would you spend so much money on parking, concessions, and tickets for a losing team, at least more than once a year?

[wardly]

On 8/2/2023 at 12:49 PM, SilverEagle said:

2022 UNT Football Media Almanac - University of North Texas Athletics (meangreensports.com)

Go to page 116 of the Media Almanac. It has the all-time attendance starting in the year 1971. 

There are notable downturns, and occasional spikes. But overall, the yearly attendance has not changed all that much over our Hayden Fry years, or our best years in 1-AA when we were nationally ranked on many occasions. 

We sold out Fouts field (20, 252) for the first time in Oct of 89 against SFA. SFA forgodsakes!

Our subsequent sell-outs and almost sell-outs were against......

Montana, Sept 1994, 20, 730

McNeese St. Oct 1994, 20,733

SMU, Oct 1990, 22,750 (SRO, it would have been more, but the Fire Marshall wouldn't allow any more fans in) 

TCU, Sept 2001, 22,837 (expanded to 30, 500 capacity)

Baylor, Aug 2000, 28,315  (see above)

Baylor, Sept 2003, 29,437.  (See above)

I'm still wondering what brought those sell out numbers (numbers that the Joe Greene/Steve Ramsey teams couldn't draw) to (the very crappy) Fouts field against the likes of SFA, Montana, and McNeese. 

WITH NO TAILGATING ALLOWED!

I would suggest that we need to look at our game day experience. Does it promote a sense of community/belonging or is it just scheduled cooking out, drinking and general chaos....with most people wearing green and then going home when the game starts?

This is the kind of pre-game that will encourage people to go into the stadium and PARTICIPATE!

Even against an opponent like Kent State.

 

 

 

 

Our average home attendance during the Hayden Fry era was a little over 13,000.

[Aquila_Viridis]

It really has more to do with whether your tickets are available at Costco.

[SilverEagle]

15 hours ago, wardly said:

Our average home attendance during the Hayden Fry era was a little over 13,000.

Hmm,  back then, they must have required them to report the actual number of people in the stadium.

[NTXCoog]

In Houston history, while winning can have an attendance impact on the current season, the big impact is on the next season due to season ticket increase.

That may be consitional though.  A 7 win season may not have an impact, but a 9-10 win season with a bowl win should.

Also a minimum % of capacity may be required.  If there is a threat of sell outs, even if only for the big games, season ticket increase is more likely