Looking forward

ntmeangreen11 · November 20, 2011

Here is the 2012 schedule.

9/1 @ LSU

9/8 VS. Texas Southern

9/15 @ Kansas State

10/5 @ Houston

N/A @ ULM

N/A vs. Troy

N/A @ WKU

N/A vs. FIU

N/A @ MTSU

N/A vs. ASU

N/A @ FAU

N/A vs. ULL

* I don't know the date or time of any conference games, just which ones will be home/away next season.

Looking at this realistically, we should go 1-3 in OOC. I'll get to the conference slate later. Our most notable losses will be Akpunku, Hill, Downing, Dunbar, and Tomlinson.

*This is how I grade players: Bad, Below average, decent, above average, great, game changer

Offense

Returning starters- 9

Chris Bynes(WR) Ivan Delgado(WR) Brelan Chancellor(WR) A. Johnson(LT) Mason Y'Barbo(LG) A. Fortenberry© Cyril Lemon(RG) Andrew Power(TE) Derek Thompson(QB)

The offense hasn't been great this year, but they have shown signs of being an above average unit. Returning 4/5 starters on the o line is going to be a boost for next season, as well as having Cam Feldt come in and take the RT spot as I expect him to while Boone plays backup at C/G and gets ready to contribute in 2013. Thompson has kind of been up and down, but for the most part, a decent player this season. Is he a world beater? No, but he's also just a sophmore, and with a year of experience under his belt, I think he'll be a good, not great player next season. The WR's got off to a slow start, but Bynes has been pretty good(if people can forget the two drops he had yesterday) Delgado emerged late too and has been consistent, and Chancellor is a decent player as well. We should be fine at WR next season provided we can find a 4th WR that warrants attention on obvious passing downs. Power is no A. Blount, but he is a decent run blocker and showed he can catch the ball against Troy, we'll also have Prior back when they want to go 2 TE. I fully expect this offense to pass a lot more next season, without a proven running back. I would assume Byrd will get the nod to start, but the offense should be much improved next season. I don't think Chico would have any job security issues, and maybe with a more pass oriented offense next season he'll feel more at home and be able to put the offense in a better position to win.

Defense

Returning starters- 7

Brandon McCoy (DE) Ryan Boutwell (DT) Tevinn Cantly (DT) Michael Stok (OLB) Zach Orr (MLB) Will Wright/Phillips (OLB) Freddie Warner (CB)

I'm not sure who will be taking over the safety spots, from what I've read, Lamarie Lee is a great player, and should have a good shot at taking one of the spots, Kerry Swarn is another player that could get a safety spot, along with the incoming playr Devante Davis, we look to be pretty thin here in experience and depth. At corner, Warner will be a decent player, he proved it this year beating out the senior Steven Ford before being lost to injury for the year. The other corner spot will go to Marcus Trice who transferred from Oklahoma or Hilbert Jackson. I am not sold on Trice, just because we have a history of transfers not working out. The secondary is a major question mark and is the unit I am most concerned about going in to next season. At LB, we have three starters back, basically four with Phillips coming back after missing time. Although we lose Forlando Johnson and Julian Herron who were contributors, they weren't great players and we have younger linebackers that will be capable of spelling the starters adaquetly. We will be solid at LB and have two game changing potential all conference players there (Stok & Orr). On the defensive line, we'll be replacing AK47, which of course is going to be pretty much impossible. KC Obi will take over, and should be a decent player, Mccoy is a decent run stopping DE, but as per the usual, DT is a position in which we have below average players. Boutwell has heart, no one can deny that, but he's a DE playing as a DT giving up 50 pounds on every play. I would hope that he can gain 20-30 pounds in the offseason, come back to 2012 at 290 or so, and be an above average player, although those expectations might be unrealistic. Cantly is a pourus player, I know the run defense has improved, but the truth is just like the past 7 years, we need to try and find 2 or 3 JUCO DT's that can contribute immediately. Cantly is just not the answer even though he has the size. If we can find a decent replacement for Cantly and KC Obi or Everman or Lincoln step and become decent players, then our front seven will be top 3 in the sun belt. If that doesn't happen, we'll be a middle of the pack defense again, because breaking in 4 new starters in the secondary is going to be brutal.

Conference games.

N/A @ ULM

N/A vs. Troy

N/A @ WKU

N/A vs. FIU

N/A @ MTSU

N/A vs. ASU

N/A @ FAU

N/A vs. ULL

If we go 1-3 OOC, we have to win 5 conference games to have a shot at a bowl. The schedule could not be set up better for next season, we have the best three teams at home, and the only tough road game will be WKU who I imagine will be worse next season after losing Rainey. If we can go 2-2 at home at minimum, then we can go 3-1 on the road at minimum. MT/FAU/ULM will not be good teams next season, UlM will be the best of the bunch, and I think we're better than them. We should have a good shot at beating WKU, but ASU/ULL look like they will be very strong next year, specifically ASU because Aplin is only a junior this year. FIU will be down after losing Hilton, Troy will still be rebuilding next season, and it looks like there's only two teams that will be clearly better than us at the beginning of next year.

Folks, we have 16 starters coming back, a great conference schedule, and atleast 1 easy OOC game. I don't think it would be out of the question to say we'll win 7 games next year. We can easily go 6-2 in conference and take the game against Texas Southern. So stop all this doom and gloom, the truth is, if Dodge was allowed to stay to open this stadium, this team would have 1 or 2 wins right now. The coaches know what they're doing and are doing the best with what they've got, which isn't much. However, Dodge did leave behind some younger players that will be above average sun belt players next season, and we have 9 of them back on offense next season. Calm down, the future is bright regardless of what conference we're in. Finishing at worst 4-8 this season is a huge improvement. I know, we all want success now, but the truth is, quite a few of these players aren't FBS material, that's why we have so many FR/SO playing. Now give those young guys a year or two to progress, and I have no doubt we'll be a bowl team. And we will be a bowl team in either 2012 oe 2013. Just have patience folks, there's a lot to be proud of, and Johnny Jones has been my savior for making me forget about football the past 5 years, so get on the basketball bandwagon, and soon enough it will be spring ball.

GO MEAN GREEN

Edited November 20, 2011 by ntmeangreen11

NT03 · November 20, 2011

Trice is not like any other football transfer we have gotten in the past. He was actually playing at OU & would have gotten PT this year had he stayed. Be sold on him , he's not Tyler Strafford. He will come in and start from day 1

I was told by someone in the AD that we might try to get out of 1 of those OOC road games ( K state or LSU)

Edited November 20, 2011 by NT03

DeepGreen · November 20, 2011

Five home games? Are you kidding me? What a crappy OOC schedule.

wardly · November 20, 2011

it is my understanding with the addition of Missouri and A&M next year all members of SEC will have to replace one non conference game with another conference game. hope so, and hope LSU reschedules us for later in the decade and drops up next year.

Harry · November 20, 2011

Would love to see us replace LSU with a home game against a decent draw.

Green Mean · November 20, 2011

However it gets done we need to be 2-2 after 4 games. We either have to beat KSU or Houston on the road. I know it's a tough task but it's not impossible...keep in mind Keenum won't be there next year so it's probably a lot more winnable.

untbowler · November 21, 2011

We should win 7 games minimum next year otherwise we should get some the $1 million in salary back from the coaches, just holding them to the standard that ASU, ULL, and WKU have set with 1st and 2nd Year coaches and a lower payroll.

risinggreen · November 21, 2011

Yes, opening at LSU always gives me that calm, warm, fuzzy feeling inside. :lol: Otherwise a nice writeup. Except that we really do have a lot of holes to fill w/o JC help. I'd be surprised, but I hope he's not averse to going fairly heavy JC this year, because I see the need for help at WR, DL, DB, and for overall depth if we are to make a major step up in 2012. Let's also pray that we don't have much in the way of defections and injuries as well.

GreenPepper · November 21, 2011

Would love to see us replace LSU with a home game against a decent draw.

When do we get our shot at Duke, Minnesota and Kentucky?

foutsrouts · November 21, 2011

When do we get our shot at Duke, Minnesota and Kentucky?

I'm OK with most any AQ team but the top 2/3's of the SEC and OU. As long as they're a school that will at least give us a 2 for 1. LSU, Bama, and OU in particular get old. Texas is OK every once in awhile, because I'm hoping we can catch them when we're up and they're down. Time to rally the troops Dan, because we got them not too far down the road.

MeanMag · November 21, 2011

But without LSU on the schedule as the first game, that would mean Texas Southern would be the first. How is our team going to GEL? We can't prepare to go against a Billy S. coached team by playing a bunch of FCS patsies.

ParksAndRecRick · November 21, 2011

Anything schedule that has less than 6 home games per year is not-acceptable....and for a school that has been told we are cutting back on money games...it is very sad.

FirefightnRick · November 21, 2011

I'm not that worried about who fills in our secondary because we came into this season with them being our most experienced returning Corp and the results were dissapoinitning. But Trice was seeing SP time as a true freshman at OU. He will be one of the starting four back there, no doubt.

I have high expectations for Abby. He's big and can run and loves to hit.

It's interesting that you consider Boutwell undersized and not Apunku?

Even wKY went into Baton Rouge a week ago with every intention of beating LSU, and for a while they looked like they had a chance. It's time this team at North Texas get the same attitude.

Rick

All About UNT · November 21, 2011

I'm not that worried about who fills in our secondary because we came into this season with them being our most experienced returning Corp and the results were dissapoinitning. But Trice was seeing SP time as a true freshman at OU. He will be one of the starting four back there, no doubt.

I have high expectations for Abby. He's big and can run and loves to hit.

It's interesting that you consider Boutwell undersized and not Apunku?

Even wKY went into Baton Rouge a week ago with every intention of beating LSU, and for a while they looked like they had a chance. It's time this team at North Texas get the same attitude.

Rick

Rick.... do you mean Abbe or is Abby a nickname for someone else (not being a smart ass). If you do mean Abbe then I have to disagree since neither he nor Cantly has shown much of anything to impress.

foutsrouts · November 21, 2011

9/1 @ LSU

9/8 VS. Texas Southern

9/15 @ Kansas State

10/5 @ Houston

N/A @ ULM

N/A vs. Troy

N/A @ WKU

N/A vs. FIU

N/A @ MTSU

N/A vs. ASU

N/A @ FAU

N/A vs. ULL

Three weeks between K. State and Houston games, and the TSU game is the only game at Apogee until late Oct. against Troy? Hope that's not right.

Dr. Seuss · November 21, 2011

Thrice is the best athlete on the team, kids a playmaker, First team all conference... Now Fedlt on the other hand has a lot to prove, very inconsistent

Maduro · November 21, 2011

what are the odds of next years season tickets only costing 83% of this seasons price?

JRock · November 21, 2011

That OOC schedule is ridiculous. 5 home games? Stupid.

JRock

Coffee and TV · November 21, 2011

When do we get our shot at Duke, Minnesota and Kentucky?

Dude. Kansas.

Big 12 team, lots of alumni in DFW, very winnable game. It would be a sellout. I think we could sacrifice and pay a little more for tickets to get them to come. Plus, if A&M was on their schedule it opens up a game. They'll keep playing Mizzou regardless though.

meangreendork · November 21, 2011

However it gets done we need to be 2-2 after 4 games. We either have to beat KSU or Houston on the road. I know it's a tough task but it's not impossible...keep in mind Keenum won't be there next year so it's probably a lot more winnable.

Provided that their new QB isn't nearly as good, yes. The receivers at Houston are sharp, but Keenum is what makes that team shine. Their defense wasn't really all that powerful against our team in the last meeting. Keep in mind that our team put up 23 points on them. UCLA put up 34.

Here's my look on next season, provided all things being constant:

9/1 @ LSU :: Can we trade this for someone else in state, at home? Just not LSU, please.

9/8 VS. Texas Southern :: UNT by 21.

9/15 @ Kansas State :: Another "Can we trade this?" game.

10/5 @ Houston :: Uhm, this is hard to tell. If we win, it's close.

N/A @ ULM :: I think we win this one by 14.

N/A vs. Troy :: Another close one. UNT by 7.

N/A @ WKU :: Close game. WKU really depends on Rainey and I didn't their backup do much at all this season. UNT by 7, if our passing D improves.

N/A vs. FIU :: Hard to tell as well. FIU really depends on their star WR/QB duo.

N/A @ MTSU :: Win, UNT by 14. MTSU looks like a train wreck and I don't know why they'd improve since no real changes are happening between now and 2012.

N/A vs. ASU :: Oh man, I want this to be a win so badly, just like WKU and FIU. UNT by 7, or ASU by 14+.

N/A @ FAU :: Schnelly is out, and barring the replacement being something like our Coach Mac or the newish WKU coach, it's still a UNT win, probably by 14.

N/A vs. ULL :: Same situation as ASU and FIU. I want it to be a win, but I don't know right now. UNT by 7 or ULL by 14+.

If things don't improve, we'll be 5-7 in 2012. If they do, expect 6-6 (minor improvements) to 8-4 (absolute best situation). At best, we go 2nd in the SBC, go to a bowl game. Which really, 5-7 is something I can live with, 6-6 is also okay, but I'd love to see 2nd or 3rd in the SBC and a bowl game, and hell, a win in a bowl game, too.

Also, the home game outlook is pretty awful. I don't like how much of it is away until later on in the season, even if some of the hardest matches are at Apogee.

untjim1995 · November 22, 2011

I opened this thread because it told me I would calm down. Instead, I just got my blood pressure boiling again. For the sake of all that is holy, please stop playing top tier SEC and Bevo 10 schools. They give you nothing but a paycheck. Even that hurts your product with the casual fan who decides that, "Oh, I saw North Texas lost 63-0 at LSU, who I have heard of and saw them win the national championship last year. I see they are playing their one OOC game at home this upcoming week against...Texas Southern? I think I'll stay home. By the way, why do they always play the national champion from the previous year to open up the season?"

The Belt schedule next year will give us the possibility of 4-6 wins. The OOC gives us one, as it stands now. I love the game at UH, but we aren't even close to their level right now, especially playing them on the road. I like the K-State game, but the same applies to this game as it does for UH. I hate the Texas Southern game and I hate the LSU game--neither gives you anything of major help with the fanbase or the team. And God help us if we lose that Texas Southern game. I think you schedule an OOC game against FBS schools only and I would be on the horn with Texas State in a heartbeat. But, in the end, this is North Texas--we will probably just keep the schedule we have and continue to kill any chance of momentum.