Ouch, #16 Seed Likely For Sun Belt Champ

[akriesman]

Most years you can bank on upsets happening in the conference tournaments. But, not this year (other than the Sun Belt).

Because of the way the tournaments are falling, I think it is very likely that the Sun Belt winner ends up with a #16 seed (which is unbelievable to me). A #15 seed is a remote possibility. You can forget anything lower than a #15 seed. I don't see any teams with losing records making the tourney this year.

Here is the reasoning for the logic based on the RPI's of the teams that have already won their conference tournaments, or are projected to do so:

The Sun Belt winner has zero chance of passing these tournament winners:

• America East Winner - Sunbelt has no chance to pass Vermont/Albany who play for championship.
• Atlantic Sun - Belmont ranked much higher than both NT or ARK ST and is already in.
• Big South - Winthrop highly ranked. No chance to pass Big South winner.
• Horizon League - Wright State or Butler both much higher than Sun Belt and are playing for title.
• Ivy - Penn higher than Sun Belt and has already won conference.
• Mid-Continent - Both Oral Roberts and Oakland higher rated (title game)
• Patriot - No chance to pass Bucknell or Holy Cross (championship game)
• Southern - No chance to pass Davidson, who has already won.
• Western Athletic - Probably no chance of Sun Belt passing any of the teams in the tournament that have a logical chance to win.

The Sun Belt winner has only a very, very slight chance of passing these conferences:

• Conference USA - Top 5 seeds ranked higher than Sun Belt winner
• MAC - Higher rated, unless very low seed pulls off upset tourney win

The Sun Belt winner has a slight chance of passing these conferences:

• Southland - Texas A&M CC ranked too high. So is Sam Houston St (go figure). We must have seed lower than #3 win tourney for Sun Belt to pass.
• Big West Winner - Long Beach State much higher than NT or ARK ST. Sunbelt Winner could bump others if there is an upset.
• MAAC - Niagra has won and is ranked very slightly higher than UNT.
• Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky has won and is slightly higher rated than Sun Belt NT
• MEAC - If Delaware ST wins, it is higher seed. Sunbelt is higher than all other MEAC teams.

The Sun Belt winner should be higher ranked then these conference winners:

• Big Sky - Sun Belt higher, no matter who wins
• Northest - Very close. NT probably higher rated. Arkansas St maybe lower rated.
• SWAC - Sun Belt higher, no matter who wins

If things hold true to form, the Big Sky and SWAC would play for the #64 spot and one of the #16 seeds. That leaves the Sun Belt, NorthEast and another conference champ as the other 3 #16 seeds.

Things to hope for.....

• Lower seed pulls off upset in Southland Conference championship.
• Delaware St falters in the MEAC tournament.
• Upset winner in the Big West tournament.

If these three things happen, then NT/Ark St could end up with a #15 seed. If all hell breaks loose in the remaining conference championships, there is a very, very slight chance of getting a #14 seed. NT's chances are slightly better than Arkansas St due to the slightly higher RPI and better record.

It's a tough year to be the Sun Belt conference champ. Cheers.

[CMJ]

Excellent summary.

[Eagle1855]

I agree, great summary!

[risinggreen]

So we basically hope to be fighting our old Southland for a 15th seed. Go figure.

[CMJ]

Bump for people who are enraged in other threads -

[LongJim]

Kill AState and let God sort it out.

[UNT_92_Fan]

Hell I am just glad we have the friggin oppurtunity to get a Bid...

Give us the play in game...lets beat that team, and play the top team in the Tourney... WE ARE PLAYING FOR A SHOT TO GO. Who else in the Sunbelt is going? How about SMU and TCU???

Screw it I am down for a Play-In Game!

[gangrene]

Hell I am just glad we have the friggin oppurtunity to get a Bid...

Give us the play in game...lets beat that team, and play the top team in the Tourney... WE ARE PLAYING FOR A SHOT TO GO. Who else in the Sunbelt is going? How about SMU and TCU???

Screw it I am down for a Play-In Game!

I'm game too. We'd have the full attention of the national audience since it will be the ONLY NCAA tourney game being played at that time.

[MGW]

Thanks for the info! That clears it up for me.

[GoMeanGreen1999]

I said last night before the game, I thought we would be a 15th seed, but the more I am looking at bracket predictions on all the major online sports pages, it is looking very likely that we will have to play in the play in game. I sure hope I am wrong, but that is the way it looks to me. That being said, I am not sure that is a bad thing. That would mean we would get to play Tuesday night with the whole country's attention, and I think we can beat Miss Valley State.

[untbowler]

I think the play last night plus wins over Rice, Tulsa, and Charlotte are much bigger than MEAC wins, SWAC wins. We will not be playing the play in game, especially with 20+ wins.

[eppy4life]

I can't see a 23-10 team in the play in game.

[CaribbeanGreen]

As of this moment Sportsline.com has us as the 3rd 16 seed - meaning no play in game, and they have the play in as Central Conn. vs. Miss Valley St.

ESPN, however, has us in the play-in vs. MVSU, and Central Conn. as the 3rd 16 seed. Looks like it may be between us and CC.

[CMJ]

Central Connecticut plays tonight in the NEC. Obviously I'm rooting against them.

[CaribbeanGreen]

Okay.. looking at Central Connecticut, they are 21-11, 16-2 in conference.

They started 5-10... they have losses to Harvard, St. Bonaventure, Lehigh, Lasalle, Robert Morris, Eastern Michigan, and Fairleigh Dickinson, in addition to more respectable losses to Michigan, Vermont, Davidson (by almost 30, though) and UMass.

Their BEST wins, by far, are two over Sacred Heart - who they play again tonight in the Northeast title game. Sac Heart is 18-13 overall, 12-6 NEC.

There are two other teams with .500 or better records overall in the NEC, Sac Heart and Robert Morris, who CCSU lost to.

As far as I can tell, they have three non-conference wins... Delaware, New Hampshire, and Marlyand-Baltimore County.

But the BIGGEST thing in our favor?? They have two schools in their conference named St. Francis. Surely, that instability vaults us past them.

[MeanMag]

There are two other teams with .500 or better records overall in the NEC, Sac Heart and Robert Morris, who CCSU lost to.

As far as I can tell, they have three non-conference wins... Delaware, New Hampshire, and Marlyand-Baltimore County.

Compare that to our conferences 5 other teams with better than .500 records and our 10-2 Non-Con?

I wish we really had that UTA game back. Oh well, we're here and kicking.

Edited March 7, 2007 by MeanMag

[risinggreen]

Okay.. looking at Central Connecticut, they are 21-11, 16-2 in conference.

They started 5-10... they have losses to Harvard, St. Bonaventure, Lehigh, Lasalle, Robert Morris, Eastern Michigan, and Fairleigh Dickinson, in addition to more respectable losses to Michigan, Vermont, Davidson (by almost 30, though) and UMass.

Their BEST wins, by far, are two over Sacred Heart - who they play again tonight in the Northeast title game. Sac Heart is 18-13 overall, 12-6 NEC.

There are two other teams with .500 or better records overall in the NEC, Sac Heart and Robert Morris, who CCSU lost to.

As far as I can tell, they have three non-conference wins... Delaware, New Hampshire, and Marlyand-Baltimore County.

But the BIGGEST thing in our favor?? They have two schools in their conference named St. Francis. Surely, that instability vaults us past them.

They lost to Harvard? Talk about a team that would lose to Richland College. Geez...

[SCREAMING EAGLE-66]

---They are a North-Eastern team and close to ESPN and national media centers...... It seems most national sports media types seem to think that most great basketball teams are located there and in the ACC.

[greenminer]

---They are a North-Eastern team and close to ESPN and national media centers...... It seems most national sports media types seem to think that most great basketball teams are located there and in the ACC.

What? an east-coast bias? surely not...what are you suggesting, you crazy fool!

[gangrene]

Here's who I'm rooting for:

MEAC - Coppin State (#8 seed, 12-19) and Hampton (#7 seed, 15-15) - both of these teams have a recent history of faring well in tournament play, so maybe one of them can win their conference tourney. I think our record easily gives us a higher NCAA seed than either of these two.

Southland - UTA (#5 seed, 13-16) Ok, the real reason I'm pulling for UTA is because I have several friends who are alumni...but also because it seems we are in strong comptetition with the Southland Conference for that third 16 seed. We should get the nod over ANY Southland team this year, but I think if any team besides TAMU-CC or SHSU wins the tourney, it's not even a question.

SWAC - almost the same scenario as the Southland. Most are projecting the SWAC #1 seed, Miss. Valley State, to be in the play-in game already...anyone else wins that tourney and they can definitely expect to play on Tuesday.

I think we have a fair shot to jump seeds of either Eastern Kentucky, the Ohio Valley champ, Central Conn/Sacred Heart, Northeast Conference semifinalists, or Northern Arizona/Weber State, Big Sky semifinalists and a slight chance at jumping Belmont, Atlantic Sun champs, who lost to SBC conference-mate, MTSU. We'd also have a slight chance to be seeded higher if a BIG surprise winner emerges from the Big West, Mid-American or Western Athlethic confernces.

[THOR]

would uta get seeded higher than us since they beat us???

[redallover]

Central Conn. would be lower rated. As would the SWAC and some others. UNT will be a solid 16 seed (no play in) and has an outside shot at a 15. Currently, at #136 in RPI, UNT is the second lowest rated team in the Tourney...just ahead of Viagara.

[gangrene]

The latest NCAA power rankings were just released on USA Today.

Of interest:

131 Niagara

132 South Alabama

133 Central Conn.

135 Oral Roberts

136 TAMU CC

144 Ohio (MAC #5 seed)

145 Weber St

149 Louisiana Monroe

151 Sam Houston State

152 Boise St (6th seed in WAC)

153 Delaware St (MEAC #1 seed)

155 Western Kentucky

159 Florida Atlantic

160 Western Michigan (MAC #6 seed)

161 Eastern Kentucky

177 Belmont

187 Sacred Heart

189 North Texas

200 Northern Arizona

208 Central Michigan (MAC #7 seed)

232 Florida A&M (MEAC #2 seed)

233 UTA

252 Mississippi Valley State (SWAC #1 seed)

241 UC Irvine (5th seed in Big West)

257 Idaho (9th seed in WAC)

259 CSU Northridge (6th seed in Big West)

295 South Carolina State (MEAC #4 seed)

304 North Carolina A&T (MEAC #3)

I'm going to go ahead and make the call right now...I'm predicting a SWAC vs MEAC play-in game on Tuesday.

[CaribbeanGreen]

I'm going to go ahead and make the call right now...I'm predicting a SWAC vs MEAC play-in game on Tuesday.

Let's hope Delaware St. falters along the way... that happens, I think we can REALLY breathe easy.

[PerryG2480]

One online prediction has us as a 15 playing against Florida in New Orleans. I'd take that.