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CMJ

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Everything posted by CMJ

  1. I actually am currently unemployed, and I am fine for now with that. I've always had (since I started working) enough in savings for a lengthy time of unemployment just in case.
  2. I am saying if the death number for corona is 1 million (so we have 3.8 million deaths in the US this year plus or minus), even then it would be a small chance of dying from it. I just want to know at what point does the death count get too high? Even only a 1% chance means we'll probably all live -- but you'd have 3 million deaths attributable. So again, what is the number that is okay to you. I posted this eleven days ago.
  3. Even if it is a million that would roughly be 0.3% of dying given our population is 330 million --- so as you would call an infinitesimal chance.
  4. Okay, so what is the number or risk that is acceptable and I'll tell you how many Americans die. I just want to know what number you can live with.
  5. It's not a 1 to 1 because not everyone by any stretch as caught the disease yet. So, that number is not at all set in stone.
  6. Sure, but it's also not a true 1 to 1 thing. It also is a snap shot of as things stand with all the social distancing in effect with only 3 months in versus a whole year. So, I ask...at what point does a death number become unacceptable? Believe it or not, as big as 100K is, I do find it somewhat acceptable given what it could be. But, where is the mark for you?
  7. Those are rates that include the entire population. They are not rates of death for those that contracted the virus.
  8. Well, given many suspect the death figure is much higher than the current number, while others think it is less, let's say it's a nice midpoint to argue over -- hence it's probably the best that can be had.
  9. I believe I said awhile back that practically all deaths have multiple causes and they're at some level all more or less best guesses as to which of the causes was the main one. As far as the 100K mark goes Rick, you can't tell me if you had called it early, that wouldn't be posting about it now. I've seen you call attention to your correct predictions more than a few times through the last 20+ years we've known each other.
  10. USA with over 100K deaths. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
  11. The forecast for this weekend is guarded, but hopefully they can sneak it in.
  12. Being in a state with term limits, they don't really prevent career politicians. They just change what position they run for. One of the local City Councilmen in LA was in the State Assembly before being termed out. He's about to be termed out of City Hall, but he's the leading contender to be elected as one of LA County's Supervisors. His story is not particularly unique.
  13. And I said, in December maybe. 🙂 There are a few areas where some evidence points to it as a possibility, but it is being investigated.
  14. December maybe Thor. That's being investigated. November probably not. I'm not sure about the epidemiology of what counts as when a wave really begins or ends, but I don't think that December/January time span is thought of as its own wave. More like a seeding of the wave that started to crest a month or two later.
  15. Since when am I "pissing my panties" Rick? I believe I've said on more than one occasion the last week we should slowly reopen and be cautious about doing so. I don't think we can stay closed for the next year plus. I said that back in March btw. I also stated that we're gonna have to accept higher death figures than most would be comfortable with to do so at the time. I believe that's still true given back then people didn't think the count would get this high, and now we're still losing (on average) over a thousand people a day and things are reopening. At this point it's tough to say what the floor for the death count for the coronavirus is, but it is gonna be north of 100K. Pre-existing conditions lead to deaths, sure. But how do you explain the INCREASE in expected deaths if not for the coronavirus? Why are the numbers so much higher than a normal year? Even if we think some are caused from an uptick in something else (sure that's possible i suppose), surely that wouldn't explain all, or even the majority, of them. It actually seems as though deaths from Covid-19 are under, not overstated. https://www.businessinsider.com/actual-coronavirus-deaths-in-italy-us-higher-than-official-count-2020-5 And sure life is a risk. But what is the acceptable amount of death here in the USA? For me, given the potential of the pandemic, I'm putting that number at 300K by whenever it's over (12 or more months from now). Considering we're at roughly 33% of that total, with the first damn wave that isn't even over (and we're reopening) - I wouldn't put that outside of the realm of plausibility. The models that predicted that weren't "wrong" -- because they were predicting it if we didn't put any measures in place. Now even though we're re-opening things are different and not back to normal. So, I'm not predicting 300K dead yet, because we're smarter and more prepared now. So at the very least the shut down measures bought us time and knowledge. Would I be fine with 290K dead from this over the next however long? You know what, considering back in January saw the potential of perhaps 2 million dead (before the models said so, based on the death rate reported from China at the time), I guess I would be. But I don't think it is yet assured we won't go north of that. I'm not gonna predict it like I laid down the 100K marker, but I also wouldn't be surprised. I think more people should get their minds around those types of figures.
  16. It wasn't their health department Rick. It was a County Supervisor who was looking for a way to downplay the numbers. We've known since the beginning that pre-existing conditions increase your chance of dying. The article literally said he threw out everyone with any pre-existing condition (or elderly, since at a certain age that is already classified as a pre-existing condition), or a third of the population. So, if we dismiss that many people off the bat, what do we want to classify their death as? Why the reason for deaths across the nation being at an elevated figure?
  17. He didn't post some clown's BS as though it was a fact. You did. As I continue to point out....if you want to say everyone who has pre-existing conditions or old don't count that's at least a third of the population. Most people die with multiple morbities. Something generally pushes them over the edge. How would you explain the excess deaths from throughout the world, if not for the coronavirus? Do you honestly think everybody is cooking the numbers, not just the US? Do you know how hard it is to keep a good secret going? To quote Ben Franklin, three can keep a secret if two are dead. The kind of conspiracy that folks are insinuating is beyond the pale, but okay. But, if you wanna get technical nobody dies of anything but cardiac arrest, so let's not count any other cause ever.
  18. Well, again if you look at the link here, excess deaths are much higher than reported Coronavirus deaths. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-mortality-hint-higher-coronavirus-death.html So, if not for the disease, how else would you attribute the excess deaths worldwide. (And sure the US has a ton of folks with pre-existing conditions...north of 50 million...we are a very unhealthy country compared to most other 1st world nations....I bet several people on this board have too high of blood pressure or are overweight, etc.)
  19. You claim I that you were responding with an opinion, not an argument Rick. The fact that you used a BS argument (that somehow people with pre-existing conditions don't count as real deaths) as an opinion, meant it was up for grabs as far as a debate. Then when I challenged you, you resorted to childish antics. Somehow Thor and I could disagree in a rational way.
  20. You deny that 54 million people or more have pre-existing conditions? That is a significant percentage of the population and doesn't even include elderly Americans . Another 15.2% (49.2 million people) of Americans are of retirement age (65 or over). So that's nearly 1 in 3 that could be considered at a higher than normal increased risk of a bad outcome. And that's at minimum. So to say "oh those folks are unhealthy anyway, so we can't count them as Covid-19 deaths" throws out a whole lot of people. At least a third of the country. And as I've also stated before, very few people die without multiple co-morbidities. They all play into it to a degree, but something is the straw that breaks the camel's back. And given that excess deaths are higher around the developed world right now, not just here in the USA, it is fairly clear that the coronavirus is that cause.
  21. That argument is BS Rick. At least 54 million Americans of working age (eg non elderly) have pre-existing conditions. Some estimates put that number much higher. https://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Forms-Reports-and-Other-Resources/preexisting So, I'd say unless you think all of those folks are at death's door, it is perfectly reasonable to count them.
  22. This piece sorta goes into your question of comparing deaths to a regular year worldwide. Too early to tell for sure, but it does seem that there are lots of excess deaths to what would be expected in an average year. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-mortality-hint-higher-coronavirus-death.html Listen, I am currently unemployed. I'm lucky in that I have a lot of money saved and my wife has a secure job, but it's not like my own life hasn't been changed by this. I also don't think we could keep locked down much longer (and we aren't...almost the entire country is at least partially reopening) - but do I think we're gonna have to be very cautious how we go forward. I said on another thread (not sure now, since we have several going on the subject these days) that I'd wait about a month for every partial step of the reopen. If things are looking good, then reopen further...if about the same stay the same...and if there's a drastic increase relock down some of the stuff you've reopened. That's what I would suggest. But I do agree we can't keep with how it was. We're just gonna have to be careful for awhile.
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