Private schools may be caught in the middle, unless you are USC. My best guess is that if you are in an existing P4 school you will have the option of playing with the big boys or dropping down.The Big 10 and SEC are driving this realignment along with television and streaming services. For the sake of argument lets say it is decided by the decision makers to take 50 high profile football programs and spin them off from the NCAA. With the Big 10 and SEC accounting for at least 30 schools that leaves 20 to be added from the ACC and Big 12 conferences plus Notre Dame . I don't know if the SEC will kick Vanderbilt to the curb but I doubt P4 private schools such as SMU,TCU, and Baylor will be invited to the party as this new conglomerate is looking for programs that have somewhat of a national presence. But what about schools like Mississippi State for example.Well, they are already in the fraternity, sort of like a legacy. You may not want them in but you can't kick them out. Any G6 program that anticipates a "bid" is "whistling Dixie" , as we old timers used to say. I wish the the existing P6 conferences would make the first move and leave the NCAA in football and establish their own playoff system extending an open invitation to the P4 programs who will be left behind .However since I have no idea what television and streaming services stances are its hard for me to fault them for not going all in.
I'm not sure conference membership is going to be the determining factor on where the line is snapped. There is a lot of dead weight in some of the so-called P4 (and even P2) conferences that don't really belong above the line. So rather than giving a handful of G5s a life boat, it's more likely that a lot of schools that think they are safe, will find themselves on the outside looking in just like the rest of us.
There's going to be a split coming in the next 4-5 years. The only G5's that might get a life boat are Tulane, USF, San Diego State, and Memphis (maybe).
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