SMU2006

lol. Its going to be fun revisiting this thread from time to time.

Predicting what will happen in 5-7 years with respect to realignment is a fool's errand. No one had UT/OU to the SEC nor USC/UCLA to the B1G in 2017. If you're playing the odds the B1G is not going to expand until it can get a 100% no from Notre Dame. As long as NBC is willing to give Notre Dame their sweetheart deal along with getting to play a unique, national schedule I don't think ND can be swayed (regardless of the monetary disadvantage). If the B1G can get ND they will then turn their sights to UNC and UVA. In all likelihood FSU and Clemson go to the SEC. It is certainly possible the B1G raids the PAC for UW/Oregon but the Michigan and Ohio State AD's are both on record as saying they do not want anymore westward expansion. Nothing about UW/Oregon has changed since last summer when they were there to be had along with USC/UCLA. This is why I believe there will be either a formal merger or alliance between the PAC and ACC. Both are vulnerable to eventual expansion by the B1G and SEC so why not try to get out ahead of it now and secure landing spots for the likely programs that do not get selected for what will eventually be the Power 2? After the PAC secures their media rights deal (again....its going to be announced to coincide with the PAC basketball tourney) I fully expect an announcement with the ACC to come shortly thereafter. The endgame here is that in the next decade there is going to be a complete breakaway from the NCAA. There will be a Power 2 of the SEC and B1G while the PAC/ACC and Big 12 will be on the second tier. They will schedule each other exclusively all but eliminating a matchup with schools from the MWC, AAC, MAC, Sun Belt, CUSA. I could see a consolidation of a few remaining G5's that have the funding/NIL to keep up the fight to form a "best of the rest" conference while most of the other conferences/programs will be relegated to what will essentially be Division 2.

Army, LA Tech, and Texas State are the ones that make the most sense IMO.

UT and OU negotiated out of a deal a whole one year early. FSU is locked into the GoR for another 13 years. Its not happening.

PAC media rights will be announced the week of the PAC 12 basketball tourney.

This is all conjecture and bloviating from FSU. That GoR is ironclad. They have zero leverage.

Announcement likely to coincide with the start of the PAC-12 basketball tourney (March 8). In all likelihood both SMU and SDSU come in at around half of the TV revenue projected for the legacy PAC schools. The estimates are all over the place from 26m on the low end to 35m on the high end. I think you can realistically expect the PAC to get the equivalent of the Big 12's deal so lets say 31-32m with a 5 year GoR.

The break is coming. Likely to coincide with the ACC GoR expiration.

P5 Lite is an ocean away from the AAC and will be reflected in the TV dollars and bowl tie-ins.

All of the things you say are possible... But we won't be in a conference with Charlotte, Rice, UAB, FAU, Tulsa and a few others that have all but given up on college football and have absolutely no chance of competing in the future with NIL. And that alone is more than enough to roll the dice. Not to mention even in a doomsday scenario the TV dollars will be double the AAC.

The PAC, as currently constructed, is a much better fit for SMU not just with respect to athletics but academics. Look at the research dollars schools like ASU, Colorado, Utah have raked in due primarily to their association with the PAC-12. If the conference keeps Washington and Oregon happy then its a no-brainer compared to the hayseed truck stops like Manhattan KS, Stillwater, Ames, Morgantown, Waco, Lubbock, etc.

Nope. Its a matter if when not if. Expecting a formal announcement in the next two weeks.

We took 7,500 to Ann Arbor. We don't go to Denton b/c well.....its Denton. And I don't mean that as a bad thing believe me. But its hard to get SMU folks and students to go a DFW suburb to watch a game. I wish it weren't that way but it is.

It won't be completely digital/streaming but AMAZON will want its share of content for their streaming service. Either way most are saying 30-35m per school. I would imagine SDSU and SMU come in at half.

We'll take our chances against what we're leaving behind in the AAC. Even conservative estimates will be double what SMU is currently getting from the AAC deal so yeah. Not really a sinking ship when contrasted with a ship that has already sunk.