How Much Time Do We Give The New Coach To Get Us Bowl Eligible

[Eagle-96]

We should have a new coach on board within the next 3-4 weeks. He will have a short window to recruit high school kids(and an even shorter time to recruit JUCO mid terms) compared to other staffs with returning coaches. Hopefully he will keep a holdover from Macs staff to keep ties with the current talent. Maybe Perry and/or Patrick. The question is, how much of a leash do we give a coach that we could be paying in the $900K to $1.5 million range to get us to 6 wins and bowl eligibility? This is gonna be a tough process no matter who we bring in. Hell, I think Saban and Meyer would have a hard time. Do we accept 3-4 wins next year followed up by 5-6 in year two? What if we have a Chad Morris type season next year(SMU's only realistic win chance left is Tulane so they could go 2-10). My thought is that it is gonna take at least 2-3 years to get to a respectable level. What are our expectations?

 

[oldguystudent]

He has until week six in 2016, or he's out on his ass, transported via single prop banner.

[MeanGreenD]

I think we get to bowl eligibility next year.

3 OOC games (SMU, Army & Bethune) are winnable.  UTSA, UTEP, Rice are winnable.  We drew the top 3 teams from CUSA East this year.  It's likely we'll have F_U, Charlotte & Old Dominion.   All winnable.

Young players are getting experience now and that will help.   

[Sig381]

As said all ready with the like hood of a easyer season. We should be able to reach a bowl next year. At least we should go to a bowl every year. 

[aztecskin]

With this talent we have an outside chance of a bowl next year, as highlighted above. 

In general, every four years -- barring a catastrophic injury, run of injuries, or mitigating circumstance -- we should compete for the CUSA title (like be near favorites) every 4 years, with bowls coming at least every two years, with the goal being a bowl 3 out of every 4. I think that's reasonable. 

This allows for injury plagued years, the occasional bust recruiting class, bad luck, etc. 

For example, if Danny Mac would have produced a near bowl season last year (should have been the case), this season would have been his Pass year. The scheduling / roster turnover might have been argued as mitigating circumstances. 

[VideoEagle]

I think we get to bowl eligibility next year.

3 OOC games (SMU, Army & Bethune) are winnable.  UTSA, UTEP, Rice are winnable.  We drew the top 3 teams from CUSA East this year.  It's likely we'll have F_U, Charlotte & Old Dominion.   All winnable.

Young players are getting experience now and that will help.   

I think we get the same CUSA East teams next year and swap locations. I'll give you winnable as in not impossible but the only ones we might be favorited in are SMU and BC. 

[MGNation92]

I think we get the same CUSA East teams next year and swap locations. I'll give you winnable as in not impossible but the only ones we might be favorited in are SMU and BC. 

Even then, with the wrong staff, Bethune-Cookman might come in and hang a 50-burger on us in Apogee

[Green Lantern]

6 weeks into the 2016 season.

[MeanGreenD]

I think we get the same CUSA East teams next year and swap locations. I'll give you winnable as in not impossible but the only ones we might be favorited in are SMU and BC. 

That would be a first for us in CUSA.  We hosted MUTS in 2013 but didn't go there in 2014.  We hosted both Florida schools last year but don't go to either this year. 

Granted, there has been conference realignment in both of those years.  Will be interesting to see what happens as far as scheduling goes.

Even then, with the wrong staff, Bethune-Cookman might come in and hang a 50-burger on us in Apogee

Key will be the right staff that can develop Smith's passing game as our rushing attack should be best in CUSA next year.  I'm hoping for $1 million and an increase for assistants, they'll be able to put together a quality staff.  If they don't, you're right...

[MGNation92]

 

Key will be the right staff that can develop Smith's passing game as our rushing attack should be best in CUSA next year.  I'm hoping for $1 million and an increase for assistants, they'll be able to put together a quality staff.  If they don't, you're right...

It would be a wet dream seeing him being developed in a vertical air raid system with his arm strength. I can see why he was so highly touted coming out of high school, dude has one thing you can't teach, and that's having a cannon as a right arm. Timing and touch come with proper coaching, and a good system in place.

[HarringtonFishSmeller]

Six hours.

[GrandGreen]

Getting to a bowl game, is a low bar.  That should be a given for a good team.  

As far as a new coach coming in, I would not be happy if it took him over 2 years to meet that goal.  Likewise playing for the CUSA Western division title and being in the top quarter of CUSA consistently should happen shortly after.  There is no reason that NT should not dominate the West, with the right coaching staff.  NT should have recruiting advantages over Rice, La Tech, UTEP, UTSA and USM despite Mac and RV's culture excuses.  

[Cerebus]

We will have a solid QB, a fantastic running game, and an average defense. 

[untjim1995]

I think 3 years is probably a legitimate expectation. The new coach, assuming he is a wide-open offensive guy, will have to get time to teach a team full of players recruited to play a plodding offense, as well as to find recruits that can be developed into good fits for his offense.

Much like at SMU, it is going to take a while...

[GOMG2013]

 will have to get time to teach a team full of players recruited to play a plodding offense

nope.  Thats part of the problem too.  We don't have players to run a plodding offense and we were still trying to run one.  The players we have now are geared more for a spread.  Wilson, goree, ivery, kidsy, smiley, rutherford, thompson...not plodding.

Mac's style of play is not insane.  It has worked several times and it is still working for a lot of schools. We just can't recruit the talent to pull it off, or we just didn't have the staff to recruit the players to fit that style.

[Ben Gooding]

I think 3 years is probably a legitimate expectation. The new coach, assuming he is a wide-open offensive guy, will have to get time to teach a team full of players recruited to play a plodding offense, as well as to find recruits that can be developed into good fits for his offense.

Much like at SMU, it is going to take a while...

SMU plays better teams than we do. SMU was also in far worse shape than us last year. We can win 6 games next year. There are already 5 very winnable games on the schedule without even knowing the East draw in SMU, Bethune, Army, nutsack and UTEP. We know that we will lose to Florida next year. So we know that we have a shot at 5 wins and 1 loss already. 5-1 is at least a possibility. There are 6 more games on the schedule and my bet is that 3 of them will be at least "winnable." We can win next year. This 3 year hot garbage is just that, garbage. 

[NorthTexan95]

I'd say year three to become bowl eligible.  

Year 1:  could very well be bowl eligible but if it doesn't happen we at least want to be competitive in the games.  

Year 2: If we don't get to 6 wins there will be grumbling but hopefully we'll see improvement in the talent on the field.  This could be a freshman or red-shirt freshman hopefully showing us the potential to be the best quarterback in a decade.

Year 3: If we don't "Hit 6" then there coach's seat will be very, very warm.  

Year 4: If no bowl then the coach needs to be sending his resume out. 

[Matt from A700]

Despite that we might have double-digit losses this year, like the majority here, I still think we should clinch a bowl game easily. We have two should-be-easy home games at start the season. 2-0 would give us a nice boost and maybe snap a would-be 13-game road losing streak at Army? Then combine our easy division with us FINALLY getting Charlotte or ODU (maybe?) and our new coach should get us to a bowl game by next year.

[Withers940]

You have to give the new coach four years so that his first recruiting class can show what they have their senior year. Since he is coming in mid season, I would almost give him his 5th year so he can show exactly what hes got. That is unless his 4th year is completely awful. He will be playing with Mac's toys the first 3 years and we all know how good Mac is at picking out his Toys. I say if he is able to give you a bowl game in his first 2 years then he should get his 5th year

[Eagle-96]

Wow. A bunch of you think we should easily win 6+ games next year. I just don't see any game as easily winnable and I never will again after the Portland state game. Things to keep in mind:

 

1. We will have a new coaching staff running new schemes that are most likely going to be vastly different. Players are going to have to learn new playbooks and new in-game signals. The staff will have spring and summer practice to install an offense that is 180 degrees from what we did under Mac. 

2. The new staff will only have about 2 months to recruit the players they need/want to run their systems. This puts us at a huge disadvantage for getting quality recruits.A lot of guys will already be off the board so we will have to flip players from other programs to get quality.

3. We have only had 1 winning season in the past 11 and 4 in the last 21. I have a hard time believing a coach is just gonna waltz in here and win 6. I hope he proves me wrong but I think we have to prepare ourselves for a 3-4 win season.

[untjim1995]

Wow. A bunch of you think we should easily win 6+ games next year. I just don't see any game as easily winnable and I never will again after the Portland state game. Things to keep in mind:

 

1. We will have a new coaching staff running new schemes that are most likely going to be vastly different. Players are going to have to learn new playbooks and new in-game signals. The staff will have spring and summer practice to install an offense that is 180 degrees from what we did under Mac. 

2. The new staff will only have about 2 months to recruit the players they need/want to run their systems. This puts us at a huge disadvantage for getting quality recruits.A lot of guys will already be off the board so we will have to flip players from other programs to get quality.

3. We have only had 1 winning season in the past 11 and 4 in the last 21. I have a hard time believing a coach is just gonna waltz in here and win 6. I hope he proves me wrong but I think we have to prepare ourselves for a 3-4 win season.

This.

No way, we are going from a 1 or 2 win team to a 6-6 team next year with a new coach and a roster full of classes that have been among the worst that FBS has offered in the last 3 years.

I think that next year is a year where getting 3-4 wins would be a great sign. Bethune-Cookman, @‌‌Army, @‌ UTEP, and @ UTSA are all games we could win next year. We want to tell ourselves that we can beat SMU, USM, La Tech, Rice, Marshall, WKU, and MUTS, but we won't be ready next year to do that with this roster, a squad that openly quit on the university.

[GreenTexan13]

I would say a year.. Give the guy one year and we can say, "okay its a rebuilding year" and then after that I would expect him to start getting 6 wins at minimum in year 2. I think it will be tough to have a winning season in 2016 due to the short amount of time our new coach and staff has to prepare and recruit. I don't think its a reasonable expectation to have to wait on a coach who we are paying 1 million dollars to take 3 years to finally get us a bowl season. If that's the case, let's just call DMac back.

[97and03]

Bowl by the third year or you are gone. Period.

[MeanGreenTexan]

This.

No way, we are going from a 1 or 2 win team to a 6-6 team next year with a new coach and a roster full of classes that have been among the worst that FBS has offered in the last 3 years.

I think that next year is a year where getting 3-4 wins would be a great sign. Bethune-Cookman, @‌‌Army, @‌ UTEP, and @ UTSA are all games we could win next year. We want to tell ourselves that we can beat SMU, USM, La Tech, Rice, Marshall, WKU, and MUTS, but we won't be ready next year to do that with this roster, a squad that openly quit on the university.

SMU will only have a 1 year head start on us.   They're just as bad as those other teams you listed as beatable... and we'll have them at Apogee.  Definitely winnable.

[GOMG2013]

We started the year with mcnulty so, we really don't know if we are sitting with a 1 win team, or a 4 win team.  

Time will tell.

If we end the year with 3 wins, then I will say with the proper handling of the qb situation and reasonable scheduling, this team may have been a 6 win team...