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Harry

2018 Schedule Thoughts

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Upon closer inspection, it sure looks like our home game against SMU will determine whether or not this will be an "Elite" North Texas squad or just a "Good" one.  I know some of you are saying "No duh Harry, SMU game is always huge!", but this season it may even be more so than in years past.

Right now, the Caesars line in the SMU opener is UNT -3.5.  So - at least right now - the odds makers think we should win this game.   This certainly could change.  However,  IF we can pull off a win against the BMW boys, the schedule lays out to be very promising in terms of a BIG TIME season, and yes I am talking about possibly 10 wins.  If you beat SMU, you should roll Incarnate Word the next week.  Arkansas would be a major win even though their program is down and in transition.  I would say every game on the schedule other than Arkansas and FAU are winnable games that UNT will likely be favored in with the possible exception of UAB.  So a 10-2 season is not out of the questions.  When is the last time that happened?

You can't underestimate how much defeating SMU would benefit in our recruiting.  We recruit many of the same players and it would be a phenomenal boost to show the prospects we mean business.

Lose to SMU and you fall back down to earth.  Not saying it could not still be a good season, but that home opener is so important in terms of retaining students and the casual fan.

I also have the UAB game circled as a tough game mind you.  I think UAB may be a real dog fight, especially being at their place where we have not performed well in the past.

Still, I see the SMU game as critical to our program in so many ways.  We really need to bring a big crowd and let it all hang out. 

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Don't want to pull a NutsaCK and get ahead of ourselves. 

Looking at our schedule im looking to go 1-0.

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We could* have a 10-2 offense with a probable 4-8 defense. There is no telling how this season progresses. If we get good situational defense from our defensive guys, we could string together a good run in the season and end with a good record. If we get consistent 3-9/4-8 play from our defense, then there will be a lot of games like last year. So to have another good 9 or 10 win season, we will be banking on winning 5-7 1 score games. 

 

*We haven't seen an off season of preparation without Jeff Wilson. We all know what the offense has looked like without Jeff, but that was on short notice and preparation. I am eager to see what a Wilson-less offense looks like. Not really what it looks like, because I expect a lot of the same concepts, but see if there will be continued offensive continuity and success. 

 

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Yes... if we lay an egg against smu, the rest of the season will be not as exciting. 

What a great opp to make a statement in front of a potentially great home crowd. Give us momentum going into the year instead of "the same old UNT" that most people will go back to

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34 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

We could* have a 10-2 offense with a probable 4-8 defense. There is no telling how this season progresses. If we get good situational defense from our defensive guys, we could string together a good run in the season and end with a good record. If we get consistent 3-9/4-8 play from our defense, then there will be a lot of games like last year. So to have another good 9 or 10 win season, we will be banking on winning 5-7 1 score games. 

 

*We haven't seen an off season of preparation without Jeff Wilson. We all know what the offense has looked like without Jeff, but that was on short notice and preparation. I am eager to see what a Wilson-less offense looks like. Not really what it looks like, because I expect a lot of the same concepts, but see if there will be continued offensive continuity and success. 

 

If this is true, I'm really worried about our kicking game without T. Moore.

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2 minutes ago, Shark84 said:

If this is true, I'm really worried about our kicking game without T. Moore.

I'm slightly worried. We have a good kicker that has had his confidence shaken while at Arkansas. Our offense has, at times, sputtered down close to the goal line so he will have plenty of chances to get that confidence boosted with chip shots. 

But yeah, T. Moore was big time for this program. Outside of Fine, he was team MVP in my opinion. 

Jeff Wilson was the engine that kept the team going. When he was out, you saw a drastically different team. 0-12 Rice kind of lingered around with us until the 4th Q with Wilson out and of course we saw the FAU 2.0 and Troy games. It's why people on this forum were legitimately asking if Fine could hit 5K yards this season, he may have to for us to be competitive.  I just hope that the staff can instill some confidence in Smith and Co. and that they have grown and developed a bit going into this season. 

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We won a lot of close games last year, which usually means that you'll revert back a few games the next year. I expect this. I see the following happening in 2108:

Near Certain wins--Incarnate Word, Liberty, @Rice, @UTEP

Probable wins--Southern Miss, @ ODU

50/50 games-- SMU, @ UAB, @ UTSA, and Louisiana Tech at home--they are always tough after a down year the season before

Probable losses--@Arky, FAU

I see us at 8-4...

 

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12 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

We won a lot of close games last year, which usually means that you'll revert back a few games the next year. I expect this. I see the following happening in 2108:

Near Certain wins--Incarnate Word, Liberty, @Rice, @UTEP

Probable wins--Southern Miss, @ ODU

50/50 games-- SMU, @ UAB, @ UTSA, and Louisiana Tech at home--they are always tough after a down year the season before

Probable losses--@Arky, FAU

I see us at 8-4...

 

And with this defense, I would accept 8-4 as a big picture regular season. If we can avoid splitting those 4 pivotal games and steal one I would call this a really good season. 

If we beat Arky and SMU and drop one like a SoMiss that I would suspect us winning while still being able to go 3-1 in those 4, I would call this a great season. I would trade losses to SoMiss, LaTech, and UAB for wins vs Ark, SMU, and UTSA. If I could be guaranteed those right now I would take them. I am conceding the division for monumental/pivotal wins. 

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34 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

And with this defense, I would accept 8-4 as a big picture regular season. If we can avoid splitting those 4 pivotal games and steal one I would call this a really good season. 

If we beat Arky and SMU and drop one like a SoMiss that I would suspect us winning while still being able to go 3-1 in those 4, I would call this a great season. I would trade losses to SoMiss, LaTech, and UAB for wins vs Ark, SMU, and UTSA. If I could be guaranteed those right now I would take them. I am conceding the division for monumental/pivotal wins. 

Yeahhhhh...that's just dumb. You always take the better record and division crown.  

The wins versus Arkansas and SMU would be very hollow if we crap the bed in conference play. 

Edited by UNTcrazy727
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7 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

Yeahhhhh...that's just dumb. You always take the better record and division crown.  

The wins versus Arkansas and SMU would be very hollow if we crap the bed in conference play. 

The record would still level out to 8-4, but with wins over Ark and SMU. Or go 8-4, probably not make the conf champ game while still losing to SMU and Ark. I can set aside a division "championship" for locked in wins against SMU, Ark, and nutsack. But that's just me.  

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Just now, Ben Gooding said:

The record would still level out to 8-4, but with wins over Ark and SMU. Or go 8-4, probably not make the conf champ game while still losing to SMU and Ark. I can set aside a division "championship" for locked in wins against SMU, Ark, and nutsack. But that's just me.  

Need to stop worrying about SMU.
2 years of frustration is about to be taken out on the ponies at Apogee on 9/1.   This one, to me, is almost as certain as UIW & Liberty.

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3 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Need to stop worrying about SMU.
2 years of frustration is about to be taken out on the ponies at Apogee on 9/1.   This one, to me, is almost as certain as UIW & Liberty.

qsQEU61.jpg

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I think that we beat SMU in a close game. But if we don't beat them this year, with all of the changes going on in their program and getting them at home, I'm not sure we beat them anytime soon.

I have no doubt that UTSA will play the game of their year when we go down their for their Super Bowl, which is why I think we lose that one. I also believe that UAB will be the CUSA West Champ, just because of what they return and they get us at their place this fall. And I just don't see us having the defense to beat Arkansas or FAU, both of whom could really pound us if things don't go our way early in the games.

But I do think we will beat everyone else, including the Phonies. 8-4, along with other wins over Incarnate Word, Liberty, LT, USM, Rice, ODU, and UTEP. 

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2 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

We won a lot of close games last year, which usually means that you'll revert back a few games the next year. I expect this. I see the following happening in 2108:

Near Certain wins--Incarnate Word, Liberty, @Rice, @UTEP

Probable wins--Southern Miss, @ ODU

50/50 games-- SMU, @ UAB, @ UTSA, and Louisiana Tech at home--they are always tough after a down year the season before

Probable losses--@Arky, FAU

I see us at 8-4...

 

I tend to agree with this line of thinking....usually.

BUT we're returning 8 or 9 starters on EACH side of the ball from a 9 win team that had been made up of mostly underclassmen.  That's another year in the system for both lines.  This team has the potential, on paper, to be the best team we've fielded since the 1970's.

I would be predicting a blowout win over dirty smu if they didn't just hire Dykes.  That guy has been a whiz at the G5 level and his team is going to be able to put up points in buckets.  I think we beat them, but he's not going to make it easy.

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2 hours ago, greenminer said:

If we beat ARKie and SMU in the same season, Apogee would be pandemonium.

Should be.

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1 hour ago, rws69 said:

Should be.

And that's why I would sign up for those wins right now, to trade to lose to SoMiss and LaTech. It would create a big time buzz around the program and around Denton. And we need those kind of wins. Lose the given games and cap it off with a bowl WIN to create some momentum going into 2019. 

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I don't want to assume anything with Liberty. This team waltzed into Waco and beat Baylor opening weekend last year (even though Baylor turned out to be pretty awful). They have made the move up to FBS and have an opportunity to really make an impression as an independent. 

I'm not saying Liberty should be the favorite, but we shouldn't just ignore that game as a "sure-fire" win.

Incarnate Word is a sure-fire win though.

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2 minutes ago, WaxaWarrior2016 said:

I don't want to assume anything with Liberty. This team waltzed into Waco and beat Baylor opening weekend last year (even though Baylor turned out to be pretty awful). They have made the move up to FBS and have an opportunity to really make an impression as an independent. 

I'm not saying Liberty should be the favorite, but we shouldn't just ignore that game as a "sure-fire" win.

Incarnate Word is a sure-fire win though.

IW and Liberty would be a competitive game...honestly. I am not worried about either. Losing to either would be detrimental to all momentum created and should expire an exposed position group job status. 

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Incarnate Word won't be competitive, despite it being a hugely wealthy Catholic school, their AD is gagging for money for D1 sports. Liberty worries me. ODU plays them at home before we play them in Lynchburg. I'm waiting to see what happens with the monarchs before I write off the fighting Falwells.

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15 hours ago, WaxaWarrior2016 said:

I don't want to assume anything with Liberty. This team waltzed into Waco and beat Baylor opening weekend last year (even though Baylor turned out to be pretty awful). They have made the move up to FBS and have an opportunity to really make an impression as an independent. 

I'm not saying Liberty should be the favorite, but we shouldn't just ignore that game as a "sure-fire" win.

Incarnate Word is a sure-fire win though.

Incarnate Word would beat Liberty.

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With what we have coming back, in their 3rd year in the system, with the schedule... 

* I expect to average over 40 per game this year

* I expect to beat SMU 

* I expect to at the every least....make Arkansas really sweat

*I expect to play MUCH better against FAU at home and be in position to win that game (I think they'll take a step back this year...they have EXTREMELY unproven coordinators...Briles is legit)

* I expect to win the West

* I expect to be a top 10 G5 team

If we're 8-4 this year, I'll be disappointed. I don't care how we're doing compared to "do you realize how this program has played the past 20 years?" That has nothing to do with my expectations for this coaching staff and this group of players in 2018.

CUSA offensive player of the year returning at QB with all of his receivers, another year of the oline gelling and the 3rd year in this system.

10-2 or 11-1 is not crazy for this team.

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A few things to note about the schedule ...

* Our off week isn't until Nov. 3rd which is week 10.  We start with nine consecutive games.

* We begin conference play on September 29th and immediately play five consecutive western division games (every western team except UTSA) until the off week.  We play La Tech, So Miss, and UAB all within a four week period (UTEP mixed in as the second game of that four game stretch).   So Miss and UAB games are back to back.   After the off week we have three games:  ODU, FIU, and UTSA.   

* Fall behind and loose tiebreakers in those first five weeks of conference play and there won't be a lot of opportunity to catch up late in the final three weeks.  Take care of business those first five weeks and we'll be in a really good position for the division title.

* When we open conference play against La Tech on September 29th, we'll be coming off our game at Liberty while La Tech will be coming off their game with LSU.

* When we play So. Miss on October 13th, they will be coming off their bye week while we're coming off our UTEP game.  November 10th we play ODU and both teams will be coming off their bye week.  

* Rice is playing 13 games this year with five OOC games.  I guess they are getting their bowl game over early by playing Prairie View A&M on August 25th.  They are playing 13 games in 14 weeks with only one off week on September 15th.  

* La Tech's off week is after their second game which means they close the year with 10 consecutive games including on eat Mississippi St.  UAB finishes with 9 consecutive games including a game at Texas A&M.  

* Against the eastern division, we play FAU and ODU, La Tech gets FAU and WKU, So Miss gets Charlotte and Marshall, and UAB gets MTSU and Charlotte.  Advantage UAB.   

* I think FIU could challenge FAU for the eastern division title and they get Rice and UTSA from the western division.  (FAU gets UNT and La Tech). 

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3 hours ago, Christopher Walker said:

Hey, speaking of: does anyone know when UNT's allotment for the Arkansas game goes on sale?

Don't recall the exact date but it seems like the school doesn't get their allotment until closer to the game.  I do know in years past you could reserve a ticket for the away games but they would not send them to you until closer to the season.

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