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K-State football is an interesting team to mention. They only have a capacity of 50k, but has finished in the top 20 in the AP poll 15 times since 1993.
They are a program that could easily be left behind in a breakaway by the top programs. Their academics are not great, as well as the fact that they are clearly not delivering a huge TV pull. But they do have a history of being a solid program since Snyder got there and started building them up and they have a history of travelling well.
Public schools like those in the Big 12 now are all in danger of being left behind, too, but I bet they won't be in the first schism, just for political reasons and because they are still bringing in bigger numbers by a large amount than the G5s. But the private schools in the Big 12 and the lesser brands of those city schools/directional schools in the conference are probably left out, similar to SMU, Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Boston College in the ACC.
The question for us is if UNT would be able to be in a division setup with these schools. If so, it would be still a huge plus for us. If not, then it's a gigantic negative.
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