Breaking: ESPN conspired with AAC to take 3-5 teams to AAC

[Udomann]

I feel this adequately describes the past week...

Edited July 30, 2021 by Udomann

[El Paso Eagle]

23 hours ago, meangreen11 said:

I will give credit where it is due.  At least the American is clawing and scratching to better their lot in the NCAA.

Or are they just being used by ESPN who could probably care less other than getting out of the money they owe the Big 12

[Side.Show.Joe]

I think Aresco made a big miscalculation. The fact that the Big12 actually filed a cease and desist letter to ESPN tells me they have enough evidence to pursue further action against ESPN and any parties involved in this. I think the Big12 has a case against ESPN for "Conflict of Interest" and "Breech of Contract". ESPN holds contracts with both the Big12 and AAC. They can't legally position one contract partner against another. Also, I wonder if FOX could get the Federal Trade Commission involved. ESPN is probably not very happy with Aresco for allowing their movements to leak, and I doubt the AAC has enough money to settle out of court with the Big12.

This could be really bad for the AAC, and their programs. I doubt any of the Big12 programs that will be able to vote, are going to want to extend invitations to any AAC member institutions. Why would they want to share all that extra ESPN money over the next few years, and why would they want to share some of those UT & OU exit fees? Why would they want to share any of their potential settlement money with the same programs they took it from? Also remember the exit fees for the AAC are around $22 million. That is a lot of cash that they may not get a chance to make up after 2025, when ESPN blackballs the Big12 from their platforms. Any possible Big12 invitations would probably go to BYU and a few MWC programs.

The million dollar question is... how can Smatresk and Wren position UNT to take advantage of this mess?

Edited July 30, 2021 by Side.Show.Joe

[meangreen11]

34 minutes ago, Side.Show.Joe said:

how can Smatresk and Wren position UNT to take advantage of this mess?

They can’t.  Our ship is tied to SMU.  Best case scenario is b12 survives and adds programs like BYU, Boise and also Houston and SMU from AAC.  That would open up a window with AAC or possibly Mountain West.

[Side.Show.Joe]

56 minutes ago, meangreen11 said:

They can’t.  Our ship is tied to SMU.  Best case scenario is b12 survives and adds programs like BYU, Boise and also Houston and SMU from AAC.  That would open up a window with AAC or possibly Mountain West.

If our success is tied to SMU than we have the wrong strategy. I believe our leadership is strong enough to grow us out of SMU's shadow. All adversity creates opportunity. We just have to find the best ways to exploit situations.

[Texas Stranger]

1 hour ago, Side.Show.Joe said:

If our success is tied to SMU than we have the wrong strategy. I believe our leadership is strong enough to grow us out of SMU's shadow. All adversity creates opportunity. We just have to find the best ways to exploit situations.

Aggy was adamant about not wanting Texas in the SEC.  How'd that work out?  If the University Presidents, the ones who actually make the membership decisions, see value in us joining then we'll get an invite.  It's an athletic conference, not a frat house, there's no secret blackball process.

[untcampbell]

Can anyone explain why the Big 12 doesn't go to the AAC and invite them to join the Big 12? Then, they don't forfeit the ESPN contract and divvy up the proceeds, which I assume are more than AAC contract is valued, with the new conference mates.

 

GMG

[Rudy]

8 hours ago, Side.Show.Joe said:

If our success is tied to SMU than we have the wrong strategy. I believe our leadership is strong enough to grow us out of SMU's shadow. All adversity creates opportunity. We just have to find the best ways to exploit situations.

[Blue Horse]

9 hours ago, Side.Show.Joe said:

If our success is tied to SMU than we have the wrong strategy. I believe our leadership is strong enough to grow us out of SMU's shadow. All adversity creates opportunity. We just have to find the best ways to exploit situations.

So I know what to look for, what might such a situation look like?

[Side.Show.Joe]

6 hours ago, Blue Horse said:

So I know what to look for, what might such a situation look like?

I have ideas, but would never post them out in the open on this board. If Wren wants to hear them, but I'd be glad to sit down and talk. Every program has strengths and weaknesses. SMU is no different. The UNT football program could certainly catch up and pass them within a few years.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Side.Show.Joe

[Blue Horse]

46 minutes ago, Side.Show.Joe said:

I have ideas, but would never post them out in the open on this board. If Wren wants to hear them, but I'd be glad to sit down and talk. Ever program has strengths and weaknesses. SMU is no different. The UNT football program could certainly catch up and pass them within a few years.

Good luck with your secret plan. Although I confess it's hard to say having literally no idea what it is.

 

Say what you will about the Unabomber, but he shared his manifesto.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Blue Horse

[UNTLifer]

1 hour ago, Blue Horse said:

Say what you will about the Unabomber, but he shared his manifesto.

Actually, if you want to read the manifesto today, you have to pay for it.

On a side note, if SMU and the Unabomber played, I would sit on the Unabomber side of the field.

[Rudy]

1 hour ago, Blue Horse said:

Good luck with your secret plan. Although I confess it's hard to say having literally no idea what it is.

 

Say what you will about the Unabomber, but he shared his manifesto.

[Monkeypox]

3 hours ago, untcampbell said:

Can anyone explain why the Big 12 doesn't go to the AAC and invite them to join the Big 12? Then, they don't forfeit the ESPN contract and divvy up the proceeds, which I assume are more than AAC contract is valued, with the new conference mates.

 

GMG

Because the AAC teams are still far below the value of the remaining Big12 teams, even without UT and OU.  I don't think they're necessarily forfeiting their ESPN contract, especially if they end up suing ESPN, at which point they'd probably have a court order freezing or extending the contract until settlement. So, unless adding some combo of Houston/Cincy/Memphis/BYU/Boise/Colorado St actually increases or improves their current contract standing or value, I don't think they have incentive to add anyone.

They might want to wait out the inevitable move when the remaining P4 powers dump their current conference setups in order to jettison their bottom-feeders.  Would the Big12 rather have the top of the MWC and AAC right now, or the teams "not quite good enough" to form that Power 32-40 league?

That said, I can still see them taking the MWC/AAC tops off right now, because it could simultaneously weaken your soon-to-be "peers" while stabilizing membership. But denial is not just for college football fandoms. ADs and school administrators aren't going to give in until they have to.  

 

 

[untcampbell]

Ok....I thought I read somewhere the motive had for the ESPN intervention is that it is stuck with the contract even after OU/UT exit. If the Big 12 were no longer, the contract would be no longer also.

GMG

[Monkeypox]

21 minutes ago, untcampbell said:

Ok....I thought I read somewhere the motive had for the ESPN intervention is that it is stuck with the contract even after OU/UT exit. If the Big 12 were no longer, the contract would be no longer also.

GMG

Well, yeah.

But the question you asked was "why doesn't the Big12 go and add AAC teams, so they don't forfeit money".

If ESPN is stuck with the contract, then the Big12 doesn't HAVE to add anyone in order to keep their money. They can stand pat and not have to share, as long as they stick together and have a championship game. But I'm not a lawyer or anything, and I don't have copies of their media deals, so I could absolutely be wrong.

ESPN doesn't want to pay TCU, Baylor, K-State, etc. $37m for a slate that doesn't include UT-OU. If they can steal 3-5 teams to the AAC and renegotiate to pay some amount BETWEEN the $7m AAC and $37m Big12, especially on a long-term contract, they're winning. Then, they've also successfully dissolved the Big12, forcing most of whomever they don't take to try and find a home with some other lesser conferences (because they aren't likely finding homes in the remaining P4). That leads to more of them taking significantly less money.

ESPN needs the Big12 to die right now. But to do that, they need to destabilize it beyond just taking Texas-OU. Hence the possible interference involving the AAC. Take the 3-5 most vulnerable and scare them/coerce them into thinking the AAC is their best bet.

But, from the remaining Big12 teams' perspectives, here are their options, in order of preference:

1) Find homes in Pac12, Big10, SEC, ACC - this is not happening, and they're likely finding that out. 

2) Stick it out through 2025 - At this point, it's possible the landscape has shifted and they can partner up with the other P5(P4) castoffs. Or now that there's nothing left of their contract, steal the tops off the AAC or MWC (contract ends 2026), and renegotiate. You've just gotten 3-4 years of not splitting your cash with them and sticking it to ESPN.

3) Take some combo of AAC/MWC/Indy teams to get back to 10-12. Have to split the money for teams that do really nothing for you. You went from having filet mignon (UT-OU) to truck stop sirloin (AAC/MWC teams) but you can always move on/dump these teams when the super-conference happens. It does help stability, but stability isn't necessarily worth the cash. You only do this if you think there's a real chance of dissolution.

4) Go to AAC/MWC - Big12 dissolves. Take a big money loss and be in a worse conference.

 

 

[Side.Show.Joe]

5 hours ago, Blue Horse said:

Good luck with your secret plan. Although I confess it's hard to say having literally no idea what it is.

 

Say what you will about the Unabomber, but he shared his manifesto.

Why would I want to hand you the game plan? That would be like scripting our first 20 offensive plays and giving you a copy. Better SMU has to guess where the next shot is coming from.

[Blue Horse]

4 minutes ago, Side.Show.Joe said:

Why would I want to hand you the game plan? That would be like scripting our first 20 offensive plays and giving you a copy. Better SMU has to guess where the next shot is coming from.

Okay, I'll try one more time. Is this secret plan that is both complex and all encompassing actually in effect at North Texas through your contacts if you have any, or is it something you are waiting to share and assume North Texas is simply aware of the plan because it is so obvious?

And ( I don't think this would give anything away ) when should I expect the potential results of this plan to be evident?

 

[97and03]

The incentive to add more teams is to be able to hold a conference championship game. The NCAA let them do it at 10 teams but no way they get an exemption for 8. Get up to 12-14 and host a real championship to boost the SOS of your champion.