My Early Season Prediction

[Caw Caw]

Lamar - Home - Win 

Lamar won 3 games last year at the FCS Level. This should be our early tune-up game. What their three wins last year all had in common was that they scored more than 30 points. Last year they allowed an average of 230 rushing yards per game. Jeff Wilson should have a (hopefully limited) field day. Best case is we go up early and get a lot of guys into the mix and get to throw the ball a good bit. They gave up an average of 419 ypg. They played UoH last year who is probably skewing the stat line a bit. The cougars trounced them 42-0.

SMU - Away(ish) - Toss Up

It's our favorite neighbor, the Jones family with which we desire deeply to keep up with. If I go with my gut, we lose this one in Pony territory. The main reason is Courtland Sutton. The kid caught the ball for almost 1300 yards last season and 10 TDs. If he looks even remotely like Carlos Harris did last year we're in trouble. They have a returning 3,000 yard passer WHO MIGHT NOT EVEN BE THE STARTING QB. They have a couple of good problems. Their defense is anchored by DE Justin Lawler who sacked UNT 3.5 times last year. Their special teams aren't special and they aren't the best team against the run. Hopefully we can capitalize on that.

Iowa - Away - Loss

Star running back and loaded o-line are the strengths of Iowa. They are solid in the LB department, returning three starters. They will have a lot of new starters in the secondary and at QB. They had twin 1,000 yard rushers last year and one of them comes back for an encore season. When you look at last years schedule, their biggest weakness was wild inconsistency. The lost to #2 Michigan by 1 but also lost to NDSU (the school pretending it isn't a D1 school still). They only beat Rutgers by a score and got absolutely blown out by Florida in the Outback Bowl 30-3. This is probably the best paycheck game we've had in awhile as far as odds of winning. I'm looking forward to it.

S. Miss - Away - Toss Up

This has to be pretty high up on their target list for the year. This will be a motivation game and litmus test for the Golden Eagles. It's also a great chance for UNT to validate last years win. Southern Miss turned the ball over an unreal amount of times without Mullens last year. Then freshman QB Keon Howard was getting MVP chants from the North Texas Student section. Their o-line only returns 40 starts between two guys, so it's a big question mark that doesn't pair well with a new starting QB. They have a quality WR1 in Allenze Staggers. He hurt us big a couple times last year if my memory serves. Last year playing Southern Miss was a case of which Golden Eagle team shows up on Saturday, I don't think this will be any different. Only one of these two teams will probably walk away feeling optimistic about the season.

UTSA - Home - Toss Up

The I-35alry. For whatever reason, the destiny's of these two teams seem to be forever linked. There is a underlying hatred and rivalry that seems silly not to admit on either side at this point. This game usually comes down to whoever has more to lose, loses. They ruined the C-USA championship bid for UNT in 2013, and if the hypetrain coming from the Alamo City is in any way accurate, UNT could get a chance at repaying that kindness.

FAU - Away - Win

Their turnaround should honestly look similar to ours. They really struggled in the air recently and inherit two really good rushers. What makes them dangerous now is that they are willing to sell their soul to do it. FAU is now coached by Lane Kiffin, if that isn't enough, Baby Briles is the offensive coordinator. They may not be reputable, but boy will they be able to move the ball (eventually). This will be a good year to take them on. The thing that could make Kiffins season boom is former FSU QB and Joe Mixon Impersonator De'Andre Johnson. That was one of their first recruiting moves at FSU. They don't care what it cost them to win, that makes them pretty dangerous. I still think it takes them a year to really tune up the offense.

Old Dominion - Home - Loss

Last year's surprise, ODU took CUSA east by storm. They'll look to replace a QB who gave them 30 TDs and only 5 interceptions. The pain of losing such an efficient passer should be eased by the two returning RBs who combo for more than 2,000 yards last year. The Monarchs are 10-0 when rushing for more than 170 yards, that's the key to finding an upset. UNT struggled with the run last year, UTEP's Aaron Jones handed us an L pretty much by himself. There o-line started 4 underclassman last year and only gave up 19 sacks, so we'll have to take advantage of a new starting QBs mistakes to win this one. 

La Tech - Away - Loss

Somehow La Tech will have lost a ton of talent, even a few worth draft picks and come back reloaded. They are the Gatekeepers of the West. They are currently who we should strive to be. The good news for the rest of the conference is they lost Higgins, Henderson and Taylor. We should have a better idea of their offensive identity by the time we play them. Oh did I mention their best defensive player had like... 14 sacks last year. Hopefully we see some real strides in the o-line by the time we get here so that whoever is at the helm makes it out unscathed.

UTEP - Home - Win

Aaron Jones is gone. I'm not sure what else UTEP has to offer to be honest. Our team should be motivated after last year and UTEP will likely be worse with coach who may be on the hot seat. As with all UNT history of recent, nothing is certain, but I like our chances.

Army - Home - Win

This could honestly be one of the most fun games of the season. I'm really looking forward to it. Our d-line will be better and we'll have the home crowd again. We need to put them in passing situations and limit the option (which is easier said than done). We'll have a good feeling for our new line backing core at this point as well. That could be the deciding factor for us. I'm hoping Rico wants to recreate that highlight from the bowl a few more times.

Rice - Away - Win

Last years team was the worst Rice team since we've been in conference. They fired their defensive coordinator and are implementing a new scheme. I know their fans where hoping for a head coaching change, I just don't see this thing turning around, but in a conference like C-USA it's possible. They return a lot of a starters including their entire o-line. Hopefully UNT arrives at this game in one piece looking to add a cherry on top of bowl eligibility, but it might be a very, very important game to win. Rice could be feeling the same way. 

-

That's 6-3 with 3 bubble games, of which, I think we win one (7-5). We have a chance to do better, but this is only year two. I wouldn't be shocked to see some regression. We are really going to struggle at linebacker and need to see big strides from the o-line and Mr. Fine. All that is doable. Jeff Wilson's health is another big worry for me. This is a very winnable slate. If everything finally clicks on offense this team could be 9-3, it's unlikely. If something goes wrong, we could miss a bowl.

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

UTEP has a returning starting QB on offense, and that's about it on that side of the ball. 

Their defense returns all starting LBs, three of the four DBs, one DL.  That's seven of 11 starters returning.  Not sure what that will mean.  Willy Ivery ran for 98 and a score against them starting in place of Jeffrey Wilson, who played injured for a bit.  Alec Morris started due to Fine's injury, threw for 197 and a couple of scores, no INTs, and was only sacked once.

Our problem is our defense couldn't stop Aaron Jones.  As you've pointed out, he's gone.  

Still...we're not much better on papaer than they are all the way around.  I'd say Jeffrey Wilson is better than anything they've got on offense, for sure.  After that, I think it's (sadly) a toss up on offense and defense. 

[Caw Caw]

26 minutes ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

UTEP has a returning starting QB on offense, and that's about it on that side of the ball. 

Their defense returns all starting LBs, three of the four DBs, one DL.  That's seven of 11 starters returning.  Not sure what that will mean.  Willy Ivery ran for 98 and a score against them starting in place of Jeffrey Wilson, who played injured for a bit.  Alec Morris started due to Fine's injury, threw for 197 and a couple of scores, no INTs, and was only sacked once.

Our problem is our defense couldn't stop Aaron Jones.  As you've pointed out, he's gone.  

Still...we're not much better on papaer than they are all the way around.  I'd say Jeffrey Wilson is better than anything they've got on offense, for sure.  After that, I think it's (sadly) a toss up on offense and defense. 

Yeah I mentioned in the short summary I think Jeff Wilson staying healthy will be big for us. Hopefully Nic Smith gives us at least as much as Ivery did last year. I would feel pretty comfortable about skills positions if Ivery and Goree were returning for depth as well. Really sad to see those two go. Our Secondary may be one of the best in CUSA if our line gets more pressure than last year.

[BTG_Fan1]

Will be interesting FAU at UNT, because of McNeal who picked FAU over UNT on NSD. 

Hopefully we show him what coulda been 

[untjim1995]

I see 6-6.

wins over Lamar, UTSA, UAB, UTEP, Rice, and ODU.

[emmitt01]

15 hours ago, Caw Caw said:

Lamar - Home - Win 

Lamar won 3 games last year at the FCS Level. This should be our early tune-up game. What their three wins last year all had in common was that they scored more than 30 points. Last year they allowed an average of 230 rushing yards per game. Jeff Wilson should have a (hopefully limited) field day. Best case is we go up early and get a lot of guys into the mix and get to throw the ball a good bit. They gave up an average of 419 ypg. They played UoH last year who is probably skewing the stat line a bit. The cougars trounced them 42-0.

SMU - Away(ish) - Toss Up

It's our favorite neighbor, the Jones family with which we desire deeply to keep up with. If I go with my gut, we lose this one in Pony territory. The main reason is Courtland Sutton. The kid caught the ball for almost 1300 yards last season and 10 TDs. If he looks even remotely like Carlos Harris did last year we're in trouble. They have a returning 3,000 yard passer WHO MIGHT NOT EVEN BE THE STARTING QB. They have a couple of good problems. Their defense is anchored by DE Justin Lawler who sacked UNT 3.5 times last year. Their special teams aren't special and they aren't the best team against the run. Hopefully we can capitalize on that.

Iowa - Away - Loss

Star running back and loaded o-line are the strengths of Iowa. They are solid in the LB department, returning three starters. They will have a lot of new starters in the secondary and at QB. They had twin 1,000 yard rushers last year and one of them comes back for an encore season. When you look at last years schedule, their biggest weakness was wild inconsistency. The lost to #2 Michigan by 1 but also lost to NDSU (the school pretending it isn't a D1 school still). They only beat Rutgers by a score and got absolutely blown out by Florida in the Outback Bowl 30-3. This is probably the best paycheck game we've had in awhile as far as odds of winning. I'm looking forward to it.

S. Miss - Away - Toss Up

This has to be pretty high up on their target list for the year. This will be a motivation game and litmus test for the Golden Eagles. It's also a great chance for UNT to validate last years win. Southern Miss turned the ball over an unreal amount of times without Mullens last year. Then freshman QB Keon Howard was getting MVP chants from the North Texas Student section. Their o-line only returns 40 starts between two guys, so it's a big question mark that doesn't pair well with a new starting QB. They have a quality WR1 in Allenze Staggers. He hurt us big a couple times last year if my memory serves. Last year playing Southern Miss was a case of which Golden Eagle team shows up on Saturday, I don't think this will be any different. Only one of these two teams will probably walk away feeling optimistic about the season.

UTSA - Home - Toss Up

The I-35alry. For whatever reason, the destiny's of these two teams seem to be forever linked. There is a underlying hatred and rivalry that seems silly not to admit on either side at this point. This game usually comes down to whoever has more to lose, loses. They ruined the C-USA championship bid for UNT in 2013, and if the hypetrain coming from the Alamo City is in any way accurate, UNT could get a chance at repaying that kindness.

FAU - Away - Win

Their turnaround should honestly look similar to ours. They really struggled in the air recently and inherit two really good rushers. What makes them dangerous now is that they are willing to sell their soul to do it. FAU is now coached by Lane Kiffin, if that isn't enough, Baby Briles is the offensive coordinator. They may not be reputable, but boy will they be able to move the ball (eventually). This will be a good year to take them on. The thing that could make Kiffins season boom is former FSU QB and Joe Mixon Impersonator De'Andre Johnson. That was one of their first recruiting moves at FSU. They don't care what it cost them to win, that makes them pretty dangerous. I still think it takes them a year to really tune up the offense.

Old Dominion - Home - Loss

Last year's surprise, ODU took CUSA east by storm. They'll look to replace a QB who gave them 30 TDs and only 5 interceptions. The pain of losing such an efficient passer should be eased by the two returning RBs who combo for more than 2,000 yards last year. The Monarchs are 10-0 when rushing for more than 170 yards, that's the key to finding an upset. UNT struggled with the run last year, UTEP's Aaron Jones handed us an L pretty much by himself. There o-line started 4 underclassman last year and only gave up 19 sacks, so we'll have to take advantage of a new starting QBs mistakes to win this one. 

La Tech - Away - Loss

Somehow La Tech will have lost a ton of talent, even a few worth draft picks and come back reloaded. They are the Gatekeepers of the West. They are currently who we should strive to be. The good news for the rest of the conference is they lost Higgins, Henderson and Taylor. We should have a better idea of their offensive identity by the time we play them. Oh did I mention their best defensive player had like... 14 sacks last year. Hopefully we see some real strides in the o-line by the time we get here so that whoever is at the helm makes it out unscathed.

UTEP - Home - Win

Aaron Jones is gone. I'm not sure what else UTEP has to offer to be honest. Our team should be motivated after last year and UTEP will likely be worse with coach who may be on the hot seat. As with all UNT history of recent, nothing is certain, but I like our chances.

Army - Home - Win

This could honestly be one of the most fun games of the season. I'm really looking forward to it. Our d-line will be better and we'll have the home crowd again. We need to put them in passing situations and limit the option (which is easier said than done). We'll have a good feeling for our new line backing core at this point as well. That could be the deciding factor for us. I'm hoping Rico wants to recreate that highlight from the bowl a few more times.

Rice - Away - Win

Last years team was the worst Rice team since we've been in conference. They fired their defensive coordinator and are implementing a new scheme. I know their fans where hoping for a head coaching change, I just don't see this thing turning around, but in a conference like C-USA it's possible. They return a lot of a starters including their entire o-line. Hopefully UNT arrives at this game in one piece looking to add a cherry on top of bowl eligibility, but it might be a very, very important game to win. Rice could be feeling the same way. 

-

That's 6-3 with 3 bubble games, of which, I think we win one (7-5). We have a chance to do better, but this is only year two. I wouldn't be shocked to see some regression. We are really going to struggle at linebacker and need to see big strides from the o-line and Mr. Fine. All that is doable. Jeff Wilson's health is another big worry for me. This is a very winnable slate. If everything finally clicks on offense this team could be 9-3, it's unlikely. If something goes wrong, we could miss a bowl.

I don't see a UAB prediction

[greenjoe]

They will again drop football.

[Caw Caw]

4 hours ago, emmitt01 said:

I don't see a UAB prediction

You're right. Programs take time (i hope) to repair. Should be a W. Put me on the record for the win i'll do a write up on it later.

[ttunt1970]

Emmitt

On this I agree with your analysis

[meanrob]

1 hour ago, Caw Caw said:

You're right. Programs take time (i hope) to repair. Should be a W. Put me on the record for the win i'll do a write up on it later.

Let's hope history doesn't repeat, a la 1995.  

[wardly]

Lamar,UAB,Rice, and UTEP as wins,Army And FAU as toss ups. About the same record as last year.We may be better, but so is everyone else.

[JesseMartin]

I think we're all around the same range here, give or take a couple of games. Most of that is due to the schedule. I see a minimum of 5 wins, likely 6 or 7, and as many as 9. It just comes down to what happens in tight games. Win them, we're at 9...maybe even 10. Lose them, we're at 5. If Seth is as we expected, i.e. able to improve over others even as they improve, I'll take 8.

[MGNation92]

I still don't see how multiple people on the board are seeing UTSA as a win.

They beat us pretty easily last year and blew us out of the water in recruiting. Unless we make an astronomically huge jump in year 2 with relatively unknown recruits, I'm counting them as an L, even at home. I hate em as much as the next guy but I can't even begin to say that win is remotely close to a sure thing. 

Same with SMU. Beat us last year, and had better recruiting. I know Littrell has historically seen big jumps in year 2 offensively, but I just don't think we have the personnel, especially at OL and QB to have confidence in beating those two comfortably

[Got5onIt]

4-8 maybe 5-7. 

[Ben Gooding]

On 6/15/2017 at 9:51 AM, MGNation92 said:

I still don't see how multiple people on the board are seeing UTSA as a win.

They beat us pretty easily last year and blew us out of the water in recruiting. Unless we make an astronomically huge jump in year 2 with relatively unknown recruits, I'm counting them as an L, even at home. I hate em as much as the next guy but I can't even begin to say that win is remotely close to a sure thing. 

Same with SMU. Beat us last year, and had better recruiting. I know Littrell has historically seen big jumps in year 2 offensively, but I just don't think we have the personnel, especially at OL and QB to have confidence in beating those two comfortably

This I agree with. Games vs smu & utsa I will have slim hope. High expectations, but little hope vs them. They both easily beat us last year and way outdid us in recruiting. 

To note -- SMU's QB Hicks, could be scary good this year. He started to really see the field for them towards the end of the year, and there's no reason why that won't continue into this season. 

An earned bowl (actual 6 wins) this year would be a suitable season that would hopefully unlock some recruiting. If not, this era of Mean Green football could be starting a nose dive. Not a Dan McCarney abomination type nose dive, but a dive nonetheless. For Dan, the writing was on the wall. Even in our 1 decent season with him, it was still at times a grim season with how games were won matched with the inevitability of what was to come due to the amount of upperclassmen contributors on that '13 team. With Littrell, there aren't as many red flags...currently. But a 5 or less win season in 2017 with how poor recruiting has been, a dark cloud will definitely start forming.