Big 12 To Water Down Its Conference Further With 2-4 More Teams

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/17108512/big-12-begin-exploring-expansion-candidates

Time for us to win is now, so that we can possibly move "up" to the MWC or AAC once the Big 12 takes whomever it is going to take from those conferences. 

Keep losing and...we'll be looking at FCSLand again...or, whatever becomes of the remaining G5 after 2016 or 2017.

Littrell, Smatresk, the new AD...all of them need to understand that to keep from sinking, we can't wait for a complete "rebuild." 

Miracles are needed, and needed soon.

Edited July 19, 2016 by MeanGreenMailbox

[Harry]

This really surprises me.  Should be interesting.

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

7 minutes ago, Harry said:

This really surprises me.  Should be interesting.

Surprised me, too.  However, I don't think it helps in the long run.  The next time a conference makes a run at Texas or Oklahoma, that conference is toast.

Because all historically competitive schools are gone, the competition level of the Big 12 will be watered down even further.  If Texas gets back on top of things, they could jump.

My medium range bet is, ESPN comes to Texas and simply tells them the contract for LHNetwork has to change due to changing times and less revenue.  At that point, Texas likely gets serious about jumping conferences. Besides OU, there really is nothing keeping Texas in the Big 12, except for their money advantage with the LHN.  

Their main rival, Texas A&M is long gone, and they've been in a conference without OU before and played them OOC; so, that's not a big deal.  

I don't think it's farfetched to say that the Texas-Texas A&M rivalry could be reborn as a conference game in the SEC before 2021.  

Just remember...you read it here first. 

[Harry]

Just now, MeanGreenMailbox said:

Surprised me, too.  However, I don't think it helps in the long run.  The next time a conference makes a run at Texas or Oklahoma, that conference is toast.

Because all historically competitive schools are gone, the competition level of the Big 12 will be watered down even further.  If Texas gets back on top of things, they could jump.

My medium range bet is, ESPN comes to Texas and simply tells them the contract for LHNetwork has to change due to changing times and less revenue.  At that point, Texas likely gets serious about jumping conferences. Besides OU, there really is nothing keeping Texas in the Big 12, except for their money advantage with the LHN.  

Their main rival, Texas A&M is long gone, and they've been in a conference without OU before and played them OOC; so, that's not a big deal.  

I don't think it's farfetched to say that the Texas-Texas A&M rivalry could be reborn as a conference game in the SEC before 2021.  

Just remember...you read it here first. 

I agree with you and I wonder if UT is supportive of this expansion...  and if they are not they may bolt which means OU would bolt as well. 

[meangreenbob]

Listen, I love the Littrell hire. Best hire since Hayden Fry. But it's all too little too late. The damage done by RV is extensive. We wasted our most valuable asset, time. We had "one last" opportunity after Apogee was built but those years were squandered by an individual who had absolutely no clue what he was doing. Or did he? Unless we hire the all consummate Athletic Director and find ourselves immediately on the receiving end of tens of millions of dollars we will have one of the nicest football stadiums in D1AA. Brace yourself.

[Brett Vito]

MGB: Here are go again. realignment thoughts.

http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/2016/07/here-we-go-again-college-football-realignment-thoughts.html/

[Ryan Munthe]

BYU and Cincy. You heard it here first.

UH has no chance. UTEP and Rice will leave CUSA, USM to AAC, ULL, Arky State, USA to CUSA. You heard it here first. 

I just made myself sad. Now we'll be stuck "in-state rivals" nUTSAck.

I still think the AAC is living on borrowed time, I'd rather be in the MWC.

Edited July 20, 2016 by Ryan Munthe

[Harry]

I seriously hope that Houston gets in.  They have a huge upside being in such a big city.  They also got screwed when the Big 12 was formed.  

Whomever it is, we must accept the fact that the AAC will lose some teams and wIll want to backfill from C-USA.  If that happens I hope we will stay put.  Having less mouths to feed will help offset the loss in TV revenue.

[Ben Gooding]

36 minutes ago, Harry said:

I seriously hope that Houston gets in.  They have a huge upside being in such a big city.  They also got screwed when the Big 12 was formed.  

Whomever it is, we must accept the fact that the AAC will lose some teams and wIll want to backfill from C-USA.  If that happens I hope we will stay put.  Having less mouths to feed will help offset the loss in TV revenue.

Stay put? I say scratch and crawl with smug to get us into AAC. 

[H-towngreen]

Everyone keeps saying UH. Expansion isn't only about 10% on the field results and 90% revenue you can bring in. UH does not expand the Big 12 tv market which means no new money. It's that simple.

[Wag Tag]

3 hours ago, Harry said:

I agree with you and I wonder if UT is supportive of this expansion...  and if they are not they may bolt which means OU would bolt as well. 

Texas will stay in the fake 12 because they can keep the LHN... Bowen preaching expansion then bolt? I don't think so. i wonder if they have uped the league intranxe fee dramatically? 

[greenminer]

Put ourselves in a position to be swapped out in Baylors place.

 

or maybe it won't matter since we are not private.

[GrayEagle]

For now, I believe that the Big 12 should add Houston and Brigham Young.  That would not weaken them; perhaps make them stronger.  Houston is  stronger than Cincy and is now getting ahead of them on attendance.  

I doubt that we would even have a chance at the American Conference and then only if Seth & Company has instant success and we get our attendance up.  

[Ryan Munthe]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

I seriously hope that Houston gets in.  They have a huge upside being in such a big city.  They also got screwed when the Big 12 was formed.  

Whomever it is, we must accept the fact that the AAC will lose some teams and wIll want to backfill from C-USA.  If that happens I hope we will stay put.  Having less mouths to feed will help offset the loss in TV revenue.

They have upside but next to no footprint in Houston.

[Got5onIt]

SunBelch 2.0 here we come. Of course, NT has contributed nothing since coming to CUSA.............

[NM Green]

My Longhorn connected friend said prepare for the scramble of the Big 12 leftovers when Texas and OU break away.  Expansion does not impact UT as they will be gone sooner than later and the rest of the league is going to be scrambling to get into one of the powers.  There will be leftovers and those are the programs we need to be aligning with.

I agree the MWC is more stable than AAC at this time.  They have more history with each other and will weather this thing together.  Doubt they are looking at Eastern programs for expansion at this time, but we should try.  I think CUSA and Sun Belt eventually merge.

GMG

[GreenTexan13]

4 hours ago, NM Green said:

My Longhorn connected friend said prepare for the scramble of the Big 12 leftovers when Texas and OU break away.  Expansion does not impact UT as they will be gone sooner than later and the rest of the league is going to be scrambling to get into one of the powers.  There will be leftovers and those are the programs we need to be aligning with.

I agree the MWC is more stable than AAC at this time.  They have more history with each other and will weather this thing together.  Doubt they are looking at Eastern programs for expansion at this time, but we should try.  I think CUSA and Sun Belt eventually merge.

GMG

I wonder who the leftovers of the Big 12 would be?

[Wag Tag]

14 hours ago, MeanGreenMailbox said:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/17108512/big-12-begin-exploring-expansion-candidates

Time for us to win is now, so that we can possibly move "up" to the MWC or AAC once the Big 12 takes whomever it is going to take from those conferences. 

Keep losing and...we'll be looking at FCSLand again...or, whatever becomes of the remaining G5 after 2016 or 2017.

Littrell, Smatresk, the new AD...all of them need to understand that to keep from sinking, we can't wait for a complete "rebuild." 

Miracles are needed, and needed soon.

In reading the options in the paper this morning except for BYU the options suck. When you look at the investment in facilities at OU, Texas and their brand I can't imagine them staying long in a lower rank P5 then they have now. I could see them adding 4 just for the geographics. Example BYU, CSU........man how quickly a con can fall! Did the Baylor situation spur this?

[Eagle-96]

The only way we get into AAC is if there is so much attrition with teams going to Big12 or in other P5 power grabs that the AAC doesn't have any options. This starts the cycle all over again. We can say, "great we moved up to the AAC! But now its watered down and not worth the cost of changing our stationary". The same thing happened with the move to CUSA. I agree with Vito that smooooo will do everything they can to not be associated with UNT(they'll probably back out of the game contract after this season as well). I'm not sure what the voting percentage has to be to accept new members into the AAC or if a single member can block. Bottom line is that RV, Mac, Dodge, Stephens, Benford, etc... have left us in a VERY BAD position concerning any hope of moving up in realignment. This is why I am ok with Littrell bringing in so many JUCOs to right this ship. We need to win as fast as we can if we want to survive as an FBS program. If that means turnover in the players in the field , so be it. We cant afford to keep "building for the future" We have to win in the big 3 sports NOW! OR ELSE!

[VideoEagle]

IF we are looking at the American or the Mountain West, our chances are actually better in the American. Neither are good chances, but the American is at least slightly possible.

The MWC has been the most stable because it wasn't founded on "markets" but rather teams with fans that really, REALLY want to play each other every year. That was the whole reason for breaking away from the WAC16. The expanded very slowly and only did the big addition after the WAC made a play to hurt them. And you'll notice the core, original members stayed as closely as possible to their original division so they could play each other every year. Adding teams means they will not be able to play each other every year. And, no, money will not trump this - when they started the conference those core teams took huge TV dollar cuts so they could play each other every year. And today, the MWC has an uneven split of the conference money with Boise getting the biggest cut. The core teams care about money, of course, but not as much as playing each other. 

They have done the fund raising correctly. They built a conference around teams in a regional - by Western US standards - teams that their fans all want to beat every year. While NT has to hunt for rivalry games, the MWC is FILLED with them. That makes their fans want to donate more money. There is far more money to gain from fan donations for a G5 than there every will be from TV/media. 

Thus adding more schools hurts the very thing that has made the MWC successful. 

The American was built on the concept of "markets" just like CUSA. That's not surprising since the American is mostly CUSA teams! They don't care nearly as much about playing each other every year as what is written on the uniform patches. The good news for us is the American has never cared a lot about if a team is winning as long as they were in a prime market. The bad news is SMU is already in our market and they will do a lot to avoid being associated with us in a conference. I don't know the voting requirements, but I've never heard of a single school being able to blackball new members to a conference. Even back in the SWC days, SMU couldn't have blocked our membership without the help of TCU, Rice and Baylor. SMU had tried to block schools before - they opposed both Texas Tech and Houston joining the SWC but both eventually did. 

What we need to do is become a school that the other members of the American want to play. We need to become someone they want to beat and try to beat year after year. That will also help our scheduling issue. Becoming a school like that is a key job of the next AD. 

[MeanGreenMailbox aka TFLF]

People keep talking about Houston, and it is the prime example of why the Big 12 is screwed. 

Houston is not the "footprint" for media in Houston.  Texas A&M, LSU, and Texas are.  Houston is way down the food chain.  However, it is one of the leftovers that the Big 12 has to pick through if it is expanding.

All other schools you name are about the same.  BYU might rise above the rest just due to fact that they have a national following due to their cult/religion (like Notre Dame).  Of course, BYU's problem is the twofold:  their network and their insistence that they not play on Sunday (they skip, somehow, the part in the Bible about Jesus' disciples picking grain on the Sabbath and Jesus being totally cool with it...I guess that part of Jesus doesn't rate in the Book of Mormon).

Anyway, Big 12 is picking from a litter full of runts.  These are programs no other serious conference wanted.  The only reason they are even being considered is that OU and Texas ran out the other traditionally decent football schools in their conference so that they could have a bigger slice of the pie.

And, so, whichever schools are chosen basically become Texas' and OU's whore until one or both of them decide to leave.  In essence, they are mistresses serving Texas' and OU's purposes until something better comes along for the Horns and/or Sooners.

Pathetic that this is what college football has become, but...it is what it is.

[NTXCoog]

11 hours ago, H-towngreen said:

Everyone keeps saying UH. Expansion isn't only about 10% on the field results and 90% revenue you can bring in. UH does not expand the Big 12 tv market which means no new money. It's that simple.

We'll see.  The Big 12 is becoming irrelevant in the Houston market.  It's all SEC.  The only Big 12 games to make the top 10 TV ratings in the Houston market last year were OU/UT and TCU/Baylor.  OU/UT is on FS1 this year so that by itself may kick it out of the top 10.  TCU/Baylor?  Who knows?  Will Baylor be ranked when they play? 

There's a good chance not a single Big 12 conference game makes top 10 in the Houston market this year.  Some OOC games will probably make it (Notre Dame/UT, OU/OSU, OU/UH), but what does it say about the Big 12's place in the Houston market if they can't get ratings for any in conference games?

BTW:  UH had 2 top 10 games in the Houston market too, tying the entire Big 12 conference.

[Harry]

11 hours ago, GrayEagle said:

For now, I believe that the Big 12 should add Houston and Brigham Young.  That would not weaken them; perhaps make them stronger.  Houston is  stronger than Cincy and is now getting ahead of them on attendance.  

I doubt that we would even have a chance at the American Conference and then only if Seth & Company has instant success and we get our attendance up.  

Of all of the candidates, Cincy seems to be the most likely.  Somewhat ironic for us as at one time, we appeared  to be on a bigger trajectory than Cincy in terms of football, even beating them in a bowl game.  They have risen to a much higher profile.  Makes you wonder what could have been for us if we had had the right leadership in place.

[mgfan]

I have a hard time believing smu would fight tooth and nail to keep us out. We were a finalist years ago when UTEP got in over us, and this was because of crappy fouts. Secondly, they already have a series with us (that they agreed to). If smu didn't want to be associated with us they wouldn't play us at all. I understand playing a series is different then being in the same conference, but I have a hard time believing they would fight to keep us out.

Edited July 20, 2016 by mgfan

[RaiderEagle]

12 hours ago, Harry said:

I seriously hope that Houston gets in.  They have a huge upside being in such a big city.  They also got screwed when the Big 12 was formed.  

Whomever it is, we must accept the fact that the AAC will lose some teams and wIll want to backfill from C-USA.  If that happens I hope we will stay put.  Having less mouths to feed will help offset the loss in TV revenue.

 

I think Houston is probably one of the more deserving schools that the Big 12 has on their list.  I just don't know if UT will allow another Texas school in.  I think BYU would make sense but I'm not sure if the Big 12 wants to expand west or not.  I hear a lot of talk about Cincy but I don't know if they would really be a fit.  I guess they would at least give the conference one school geographically close to West Virginia.