Bcs Projections Week 11

[LongJim]

Below are some figures after games last weekend. Note the CURRENT SOS column, and the PROJECTED SOS (which is assumed at the end of the year IF the team wins out). The comments below that are from an amateur handicapper who has been pretty reliable in the past.

Incidentally, his comments (which were made Sunday) are similar to what Lebreton writes in his column today in the Startlegram--particularly the fascination with Iowa and Okie Lite as a BCS at-large.

************************************************************

TEAM CUR-SOS RK PROJ-SOS RK

Florida 0.534 15 0.538 12

Alabama 0.556 6 0.558 5

Texas 0.529 23 0.527 22

TCU 0.522 30 0.478 59

Cincy 0.475 61 0.485 52

Boise 0.449 78 0.435 93

"BCS Bowl Projections

USC and Miami fell out of the at large pool with losses. Clearly, the SEC runner-up and TCU (automatic qualifier) remain solid locks. So what of the other two spots? The way it stands now, I think Boise is probably in good shape to get a BCS bid, even though I normally would think their smaller fan base and poor ratings prospects might be a drag. I think the other spot will become a competition between a Big 10 school (PSU/Iowa/Wisc) and Oklahoma State, who would be a strong contender if they can win out. They will have momentum and a hungry fan base that has never been to a BCS bowl game. Projections are below (conference winners underlined):

NC: Texas vs. SEC Champ

Fiesta: Okla State vs. Boise State

Sugar: SEC Runner-up vs. TCU

Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon

Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Cincy"

[SilverEagle]

What do I think?

I think that the BCS is a Monopoly that should be shut down using anti-trust laws.

[emmitt01]

I think that SOS is based on a flawed system that takes into account irrelevant pre-season polls, assumed strength in "BCS" conferences, and that putting TCU, Boise and Cincinnati in will only allow the charade to continue because the big school boot licking media can say "see, we let them all in."

[Lurker]

Division 1-A football - the only NCAA sport that does not have a season ending playoff to end the season. All other football divisions have figured out a way, but the largest schools cannont get their brains around it. The definition of more money than sense.

I really home Boise and TCU make it to BCS games - that will really irk the BCS heads. I can't wait to see how they change the formula in response to that!

[LongJim]

I would love to see a playoff system like the one proposed on this board, and using the existing bowls. It would keep the 'bowl system' intact, and still provide for a true national champion. The system now is rigged and phony. Will be interesting to see how the charade plays out, but as long as the $ is involved, it will be difficult to change it.

[DeepGreen]

If TCU, Cincy, and Boise make it to 3 of the five BCS "big money bowls", I'll be tickled pink. Make no mistake about it, I don't like the system. But at least some of this large cash will go to non-BcS conferences.

Where I see this potentially going is the Mountain West Conference taking in Boise State and then being annointed as a BCS AQ conference.

If this happens the rest of us will be sucking wind.

[CMJ]

If TCU, Cincy, and Boise make it to 3 of the five BCS "big money bowls", I'll be tickled pink. Make no mistake about it, I don't like the system. But at least some of this large cash will go to non-BcS conferences.

Where I see this potentially going is the Mountain West Conference taking in Boise State and then being annointed as a BCS AQ conference.

If this happens the rest of us will be sucking wind.

You are aware that the Big East is a BCS league.

[DeepGreen]

You are aware that the Big East is a BCS league.

Yes, my mistake listing Cincy. I stand behind my MWC comments.

[UNTflyer]

Steps to creating a playoff:

1. Congress threatens to yank the tax-exempt status of the NCAA and all BCS schools.

2. The NCAA steps up and announces a new NCAA Div I-A playoff championship tournament

3. The BCS is dissolved

[forevereagle]

Steps to creating a playoff:

1. Congress threatens to yank the tax-exempt status of the NCAA and all BCS schools.

2. The NCAA steps up and announces a new NCAA Div I-A playoff championship tournament

3. The BCS is dissolved

As long as it is a 16 team playoff where every conference champion get an auto-invite, this could work. Otherwise, it is just a new system with some of the old problems.

[UNT Mean Green]

UNT Mean Green's BCS Predictions:

CHAMPIONSIP: Alabama v. Texas

FIESTA: Boise State v. Iowa

SUGAR: Florida v. Cincy

ROSE: Ohio State v. Oregon

ORANGE: Georgia Tech v. TCU

[untjim1995]

Steps to creating a playoff:

1. Congress threatens to yank the tax-exempt status of the NCAA and all BCS schools.

2. The NCAA steps up and announces a new NCAA Div I-A playoff championship tournament

3. The BCS is dissolved

I still believe that there will be a new version of the BCS forming soon--especially now that tow non-BCS AQ team will have to get in to their precious bowls. The most plausible one to me is the MWC just adds Boise State, Nevada, and Fresno State and becomes the new AQ league. This would really cover the ass of the current BCS leagues--and I am surprised that it hasn't happened yet. This would give the 7 leagues a guaranteed spot for their champs, with three remaining spots for non-champs. Before they added the last bowl, the big six leagues went with two at-large spots, so the whole thing is a big winner for the whole BCS. They will share the monies at a high level and can certainly add another BCS game if they want--like at JerryWorld or at the Peach Bowl. The MWC may be making noise now, but they will sell-out in a minute if they get added to the BCS grouping.

The other plausible scenario is just a complete reconstruction of the highest level of college football. Right now, 120 team "qualify" as FBS, with 66 teams being "more qualified" somehow. Some of the "more qualified" really aren't (like Baylor or Vanerbilt) and some of the "less qualified" (like BYU, Utah, etc.) are . I could see a formula put in place that involves student body enrollment, alumni, win-loss record, attendance, and total athletic budgets to make a Super BCS. You would see a new level that is made up of about 60 teams and just gets to keep it all. They would basically be a semi-pro league. It might look like this:

West--UW, WSU, Oregon, OSU, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, Utah, and BYU

Midwest--Texas, Tech, A&M, OU, OSU, Arkansas, NU, KU, KSU, and Mizzou

Southeast--LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Georgia

East--Miami, FSU, USF, Clemson, Georgia Tech, UNC, NC State, Virginia, Va Tech, and Maryland

Northern--Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Iowa State, Illinois, Ohio State, Indiana, and Purdue

Northeast--Notre Dame, Penn State, Rutgers, Cincinnati, Louisville, Boston College, Pittsburgh, UConn, Syracuse, and WVU

Those 60 teams would get all of those BCS games and probably just play amongst themselves. Yes, they would dominate media interest--they pretty much already do--but the money that these schools would generate is almost mind-boggling. Its not what I want to see happen, but I think its possible if these schools get threatened. Hell, they could leave the NCAA and for their own coalition if the NCAA didn't cooperate. And all of those legislators in Congress--guess where most of them went to school? See the list above. Lawsuits may get filed, but just like when the SWC broke up and when the ACC pilfered the old Big East, which pilfered the old CUSA, there really wasn't anything that could be done.

[GreenStreet]

What do I think?

I think that the BCS is a Monopoly that should be shut down using anti-trust laws.

Agreed

[AnotherEagleFan]

You are aware that the Big East is a BCS league.

Uh, so is the Sunbelt. They are just not an auto qualifying BCS league. But they are a BCS league. Chances are if you go undefeated and play 2 better then average out of conference teams from an AQ BCS league then you will go to a BCS game. The problem is that UNT fans call those games "body bag" games. The problem that Boise is facing is that they only played one good team all year.

[AnotherEagleFan]

As long as it is a 16 team playoff where every conference champion get an auto-invite, this could work. Otherwise, it is just a new system with some of the old problems.

Why would every conference champion get an auto invite? You absolutely cannot justify equal representation.

[forevereagle]

Why would every conference champion get an auto invite? You absolutely cannot justify equal representation.

Because in order to have a true champion, everyone has to have an opportunity. Things change. There was thought that the BCS system would include everyone that had a chance at winning a title. That was an incorrect assumption. If you start to exclude, you can easily lose legitimacy down the road. Besides, this would just lead to the same monopoly problem that exists today. It would actually be harder for a non BCS school to get in. And yes, we are non BCS because we would have to have such an outstanding season to get in, that the reality is, we can't.

Edited November 19, 2009 by forevereagle

[AnotherEagleFan]

Because in order to have a true champion, everyone has to have an opportunity. Things change. There was thought that the BCS system would include everyone that had a chance at winning a title. That was an incorrect assumption. If you start to exclude, you can easily lose legitimacy down the road. Besides, this would just lead to the same monopoly problem that exists today. It would actually be harder for a non BCS school to get in. And yes, we are non BCS because we would have to have such an outstanding season to get in, that the reality is, we can't.

everyone does have an opportunity. I guess it depends on where you draw the line. It is not very realistic to think that every conference will be represented every year. And it does take an outstanding season for anyone to win a NC that is why it is so special. We all want a changed BCS system. But the fact is that UNT has no chance to go to a BCS because UNT will not play the schedule that it takes.

[CMJ]

Why would every conference champion get an auto invite? You absolutely cannot justify equal representation.

If the NCAA runs the playoff - every conference will be represented. Does the SWAC champion get kicked out of the Big Dance so they can put on a bubble team? Nope.

[AnotherEagleFan]

If the NCAA runs the playoff - every conference will be represented. Does the SWAC champion get kicked out of the Big Dance so they can put on a bubble team? Nope.

Not in Football. They will take the best "x" number of teams.

[forevereagle]

everyone does have an opportunity. I guess it depends on where you draw the line. It is not very realistic to think that every conference will be represented every year. And it does take an outstanding season for anyone to win a NC that is why it is so special. We all want a changed BCS system. But the fact is that UNT has no chance to go to a BCS because UNT will not play the schedule that it takes.

Does everyone have an opportunity? Utah had the best record in the league. Boise was undefeated. They had the special season and still were not given a chance. It will take an act of God for TCU this year. It doesn't matter if a non BCS team has that season, they will not get the chance. That is the reality.

Not in Football. They will take the best "x" number of teams.

If that is the case, then there is no good reason for the teams outside of the "tournament" conferences to play the other teams. Let them beat each other up and then have a better record for it. Then at the end of the season, you can show your better record and get into the tournament, or we just have another anti trust situation.

[CMJ]

Not in Football. They will take the best "x" number of teams.

Again...if the NCAA runs it - all conferences will be included. If some other group(like a reformed BCS commission) then they'll just take whatever number of teams. That is probably more likely. But, should the NCAA run things, it'll be every conference champion. It's how they run every single championship in all divisions.

[Guest GrayEagleOne]

Why would every conference champion get an auto invite? You absolutely cannot justify equal representation.

It works for basketball. How is football different?

[TIgreen01]

I still believe that there will be a new version of the BCS forming soon--especially now that tow non-BCS AQ team will have to get in to their precious bowls. The most plausible one to me is the MWC just adds Boise State, Nevada, and Fresno State and becomes the new AQ league. This would really cover the ass of the current BCS leagues--and I am surprised that it hasn't happened yet. This would give the 7 leagues a guaranteed spot for their champs, with three remaining spots for non-champs. Before they added the last bowl, the big six leagues went with two at-large spots, so the whole thing is a big winner for the whole BCS. They will share the monies at a high level and can certainly add another BCS game if they want--like at JerryWorld or at the Peach Bowl. The MWC may be making noise now, but they will sell-out in a minute if they get added to the BCS grouping.

The other plausible scenario is just a complete reconstruction of the highest level of college football. Right now, 120 team "qualify" as FBS, with 66 teams being "more qualified" somehow. Some of the "more qualified" really aren't (like Baylor or Vanerbilt) and some of the "less qualified" (like BYU, Utah, etc.) are . I could see a formula put in place that involves student body enrollment, alumni, win-loss record, attendance, and total athletic budgets to make a Super BCS. You would see a new level that is made up of about 60 teams and just gets to keep it all. They would basically be a semi-pro league. It might look like this:

West--UW, WSU, Oregon, OSU, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, Utah, and BYU

Midwest--Texas, Tech, A&M, OU, OSU, Arkansas, NU, KU, KSU, and Mizzou

Southeast--LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Georgia

East--Miami, FSU, USF, Clemson, Georgia Tech, UNC, NC State, Virginia, Va Tech, and Maryland

Northern--Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Iowa State, Illinois, Ohio State, Indiana, and Purdue

Northeast--Notre Dame, Penn State, Rutgers, Cincinnati, Louisville, Boston College, Pittsburgh, UConn, Syracuse, and WVU

Those 60 teams would get all of those BCS games and probably just play amongst themselves. Yes, they would dominate media interest--they pretty much already do--but the money that these schools would generate is almost mind-boggling. Its not what I want to see happen, but I think its possible if these schools get threatened. Hell, they could leave the NCAA and for their own coalition if the NCAA didn't cooperate. And all of those legislators in Congress--guess where most of them went to school? See the list above. Lawsuits may get filed, but just like when the SWC broke up and when the ACC pilfered the old Big East, which pilfered the old CUSA, there really wasn't anything that could be done.

I agree with this. I imagine that we'd see a 'Super' D1, before they broke off completely....and I highly doubt that the NCAA doesn't go along with them if pressed hard enough.

Edited November 20, 2009 by TIgreen01

[untjim1995]

I agree with this. I imagine that we'd see a 'Super' D1, before they broke off completely....and I highly doubt that the NCAA doesn't go along with them if pressed hard enough.

TI Green--you and I seem to see things very similarly. I, too, believe the NCAA will stay away from a playoff until finally being forced to do it. When that happens, I can almost guarantee a shift like the one I listed would occur. Those big schools are not going to share anything if they can get away with it, which is why I expect an expanded MWC becoming an AQ BCS conference would be the easiest route to take. Yes, you share more, but you virtually lock up any "outsiders" from crashing the party ever again.

[risinggreen]

It will take an act of God for TCU this year.

I never really thought of the Aggies as "God like", but a miracle from them is likely what it will take for TCU to get in. Also, a nice finish for the Froggies and a not so close SEC championship game would help a bit of course.