Colorado is about to bolt for the Big 12...

[DentonLurker]

I’ll also add that, at this point, if I’m the buyer I want to know who’s in and who’s out before I make any kind of media rights offer. My offer is 100% contingent on who I’m buying.

[DentonStang]

4 minutes ago, DentonLurker said:

Curious who these sources are, because I don’t believe that one bit.

As we've seen, most trustworthy doesn't mean much, but I'd have to go find where I read it.  It was legitimate reporters not mhver3 or whatever.  Who the hell knows. 

[DentonStang]

28 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

Lol. Wow. You were literally in denial just last week of everything you're acting like you're in the know about now. It's amazing. 

I admit I framed it around money. And that nobody in the PAC was going to jump unless it was insanely low. I stand by this.  What I couldn't foresee was the commissioner screwing around so long that Colorado lost all trust in even getting a deal done. That's all unbelievable failing so bad it's hard to even comprehend. I still wonder if there is something else afoot but I have no evidence 

[Green Otaku]

1 hour ago, DentonStang said:

The story being propagated is that Colorado demanded to see the number by PAC media day (secretly because Big12 game them an Aug 1 deadline) and PAC commissioner blew them off. So they took the bird in the hand (B12) over the bush.

I find it hard to believe they saw NO numbers ever, so the truth is probably in the middle. And some elements of Colorado have been quite vocal about going to B12 (including Deion Sanders).  The most trustworthy reports are PAC is looking at even or slightly more money than B12, but extremely streaming heavy. Or significantly less than B12 with heavy linear.

But really, you have a sure thing with long term stability in B12.  PAC you have even money at best, untrustworthy leadership, and a guaranteed raid at some point in the future. Its the right move. 

 

The risk of moving without any information just seems too great to me. I feel like Colorado did everything to try to stay, but saw that what was possible wasn't enough. I think if we see more movement happen soon it's a good sign that teams have seen the numbers and that those numbers aren't very good. 

[NorthTexasWeLove]

2 hours ago, DentonLurker said:

I’ll also add that, at this point, if I’m the buyer I want to know who’s in and who’s out before I make any kind of media rights offer. My offer is 100% contingent on who I’m buying.

Absolutely. And that's the issue with the hesitation of getting a deal done. SC and UCLA are concrete gome. They aren't even being mentioned in these negotiations. Oregon and Wash are trying to be served up as a part of negotiations, but tv execs know they're inevitably gone, eventually. TV execs also know the Big12 is after the the 4 corners and these TV execs know they won't/can't offer big12 money. This is a calculated hesitation. 

My money is still on the pac12 not existing in the somewhat near future. This can mean business for the AAC. Aresco should already be sitting at negotiation tables with 3-5 universities. The AAC can really position themselves into a premium conference these next 2 to 3 years. 

[dodgefan]

The following schools have filed the paperwork asking to join the @pac12 @ColoradoStateU @GoAztecs @SMU @UNLVathletics @GreenWaveFB @USFFootball @TigersAthletics @BroncoSportsFB @FresnoStateFB @TulsaFootball @RiceFootball  there are more but I think you get the idea.

[dodgefan]

Just now, dodgefan said:

The following schools have filed the paperwork asking to join the @pac12 @ColoradoStateU @GoAztecs @SMU @UNLVathletics @GreenWaveFB @USFFootball @TigersAthletics @BroncoSportsFB @FresnoStateFB @TulsaFootball @RiceFootball  there are more but I think you get the idea.

Word is that UTSA is working the phone's hard as well, to get into the PAC.

[TripleGrad]

I'm assuming that UNT is working that phone as well.  Sure, the PAC is in trouble but a struggling P5 conference has to pay better than any G5.

[DentonStang]

10 minutes ago, dodgefan said:

Word is that UTSA is working the phone's hard as well, to get into the PAC.

Even with academics not mattering as much it's hard to imagine UTSA being acceptable. Their academics don't even register as academics. 

In 10 years they could be an new UCF though 

[DentonStang]

11 hours ago, Green Otaku said:

 

The risk of moving without any information just seems too great to me. I feel like Colorado did everything to try to stay, but saw that what was possible wasn't enough. I think if we see more movement happen soon it's a good sign that teams have seen the numbers and that those numbers aren't very good. 

There's no scenario that's significantly worse than staying in the AAC, and Aresco would take us back anyway.  Literally no downside to trying, only upside.  If it all completely blows up, we've lost nothing. If it survives, fantastic.

[NorthTexasWeLove]

Just now, DentonStang said:

There's no scenario that's significantly worse than staying in the AAC, and Aresco would take us back anyway.  Literally no downside to trying, only upside.  If it all completely blows up, we've lost nothing. If it survives, fantastic.

I think you're trolling at this point. 

[DentonStang]

50 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

I think you're trolling at this point. 

Give me a worse scenario starting with SMU to PAC

[Green Otaku]

1 hour ago, DentonStang said:

There's no scenario that's significantly worse than staying in the AAC, and Aresco would take us back anyway.  Literally no downside to trying, only upside.  If it all completely blows up, we've lost nothing. If it survives, fantastic.

You either quoted the wrong person, or misread my post. I was talking about Colorado. 

[NT80]

14 minutes ago, DentonStang said:

Give me a worse scenario starting with SMU to PAC

SMU to PAC (but it’s actually just MWC move ups).

[Green Otaku]

14 minutes ago, DentonStang said:

Give me a worse scenario starting with SMU to PAC

SMU to the PAC. 

Arizona, ASU, Utah to Big12. Oregon, Wash. to the Big10. Stanford and Cal go indy in football, WCC in olympic sports. The rest of the MWC is invited to join the PAC. But WSU and OSU go indy in football, and olympic sports in PAC. AAC takes CSU and AF. PAC adds UTEP and NMSU. 

[UNTLifer]

If I were the AAC/Arresco, I would stay put, let the PAC fall apart, send out the invitations to all that you have been having behind the scenes discussions with and elevate the AAC to P5 status in the place of the PAC.

[NorthTexasWeLove]

18 minutes ago, DentonStang said:

Give me a worse scenario starting with SMU to PAC

Well, for starters the PAC isn't going to be a thing anymore. In this scenario you are believing that Washington state, Oregon State, Cal + the likes of Fresno, Boise, CoSt, etc is greater than Memphis, ECU, UAB, UNT, UTSA, etc. And on the surface, it may appear that way until you come to the understanding that those PAC leftovers aren't brand programs, they don't bring eyeballs and they have been P5 in name only riding the coattails of real programs. Once their tag of worthiness is inevitably removed you are basically sitting in the NW version of the AAC with significantly higher travel costs across all of your sports. 

[Green Otaku]

3 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

If I were the AAC/Arresco, I would stay put, let the PAC fall apart, send out the invitations to all that you have been having behind the scenes discussions with and elevate the AAC to P5 status in the place of the PAC.

If the PAC falls apart I think those teams will be waiting for a PAC invite, especially CSU after the departure of Colorado. AFA and CSU are the only 2 teams that make sense to me for the AAC, and I think they would be prime candidates to backfill for the PAC.  

The PAC losing P5 status (really perception since P5 is just a label) doesn't mean someone else would take their place. There are no rules saying there must be 5 power conferences, and if the AAC is not considered a power conference with what left there's no way it'd be considered a conference with what's coming in. Let's just be real for a second. P5 becomes P4 and G5 becomes G6, simple as that. 

[DentonStang]

1 hour ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

Well, for starters the PAC isn't going to be a thing anymore. In this scenario you are believing that Washington state, Oregon State, Cal + the likes of Fresno, Boise, CoSt, etc is greater than Memphis, ECU, UAB, UNT, UTSA, etc. And on the surface, it may appear that way until you come to the understanding that those PAC leftovers aren't brand programs, they don't bring eyeballs and they have been P5 in name only riding the coattails of real programs. Once their tag of worthiness is inevitably removed you are basically sitting in the NW version of the AAC with significantly higher travel costs across all of your sports. 

Yes, but WSU, OSU, Cal etc are worth more than Charlotte, UAB, etc.  And the PAC is still an autonomy conference and there isn't a mechanism to revoke that. The leftovers can just pull the best available from MWC, AAC, etc and end up better off than with the bottom half of AAC, MWC, etc.  It's not the PAC of yesteryear but it's better in both money and prestige than AACUSA.  

[NorthTexasWeLove]

18 minutes ago, DentonStang said:

Yes, but WSU, OSU, Cal etc are worth more than Charlotte, UAB, etc.  And the PAC is still an autonomy conference and there isn't a mechanism to revoke that. The leftovers can just pull the best available from MWC, AAC, etc and end up better off than with the bottom half of AAC, MWC, etc.  It's not the PAC of yesteryear but it's better in both money and prestige than AACUSA.  

Revoke that? Whaaaat? Autonomy and "P5" is literally a manufactured term with no legal or meaningful connotations. 

Everything else you say is pure speculation. 

[cousin oliver]

[cousin oliver]

All of the scenarios I am reading seem to believe what is left after the Big 12, B10 and other vultures pick it apart will be Oregon State, Washington State and California.  They think Stanford will just go independent which the easily could with their 40 billion dollar endowment.

So I pose the question to @DentonStang and @mustangfan, would that leftover conference be worth joining?

Or are you so arrogant that you would just jump into a lousy conference and dismantle the one you built (again) to start another conference based on the west coast where no one gives a shit about football anyway?

[RBP79]

3 hours ago, DentonStang said:

There's no scenario that's significantly worse than staying in the AAC, and Aresco would take us back anyway.  Literally no downside to trying, only upside.  If it all completely blows up, we've lost nothing. If it survives, fantastic.

GO FOR IT Smut...PAC whatever will be a hyped up MWC. 

Good luck recruiting in the west!

[MeanGreenGlory]

At this point, I think the PAC will stick around as a mixture of current PAC leftovers and MWC additions. Too many programs want to be considered "P5" at any cost, and since the PAC has historically held that fabricated label, they will be willing to jump head over heels for invites. 

I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing for us because this would weaken both the MWC and PAC overall. There's enough competition and commitment in the AAC schools that multiple schools still have an opportunity to be ranked throughout the season.

This could all work in our favor because if SMU, Tulane, or Memphis leave, it's one less competitive school we would need to beat to win the championship (this sounds like Oregon's and Washington's rationale for wanting to stay in a weakened PAC).

Timing-wise, if Morris & Co. spend this year ramping up and have the team firing on all cylinders next year as Frank Harris departs UTSA and Traylor needs to build up a new QB...we have a serious shot to be ranked, win the AAC, and make an appearance in the college football playoff. Let that sink in for a minute.

At that point, success attracts success. The more appearances we can make in the football playoff, the more we attract high-quality athletes to come play at UNT. The better athletes we have, the more likely we are to win another conference championship and make a playoff appearance. Rinse and repeat.

It'll take a lot of work...but it's very possible right now. It'll be even more possible against a weaker MWC and PAC conference. It'll be even more possible if one of SMU, Tulane, or Memphis decides to exit the AAC. 

Edited July 28, 2023 by MeanGreenGlory

[DentonStang]

35 minutes ago, cousin oliver said:

All of the scenarios I am reading seem to believe what is left after the Big 12, B10 and other vultures pick it apart will be Oregon State, Washington State and California.  They think Stanford will just go independent which the easily could with their 40 billion dollar endowment.

So I pose the question to @DentonStang and @mustangfan, would that leftover conference be worth joining?

Or are you so arrogant that you would just jump into a lousy conference and dismantle the one you built (again) to start another conference based on the west coast where no one gives a shit about football anyway?

Of course it would be worth it, because it could scoop the best from AAC/MWC and leave the worst behind.  There is no downside, only upside