ESPN's Preseason FPI Poll 1.0

[Ben Gooding]

Hint: Scroll all the way to the bottom. 

They do have our offense at a predicted rank of 128/128. I think, if anything, that will change drastically to what they are predicting. In hand, so will our rank moving forward in the season. GMG

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/114561/lsu-sit-atop-preseason-fpi-1-0

[MeanGreenTexan]

5 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

Hint: Scroll all the way to the bottom. 

They do have our offense at a predicted rank of 128/128. I think, if anything, that will change drastically to what they are predicting. In hand, so will our rank moving forward in the season. GMG

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/114561/lsu-sit-atop-preseason-fpi-1-0

How can you predict a Littrell offense to be dead last?  It wasn't dead last in 2015, and we're pretty sure we upgraded the offense this offseason.

Nice bulletin board material for the team for sure.

[UNT90]

People need to pay attention to what others think of UNT.

They aren't juiced up on the cocktail.

Edited February 9, 2016 by UNT90

[GMG24]

2 minutes ago, UNT90 said:

People need to pay attention to what others think of UNT.

They aren't juiced up on the cocktail.

You better change that signature.. 

[UNT90]

Just now, GMG24 said:

You better change that signature.. 

I didn't put it there in the first place. 

It was actually put there by a mod to kind of poke fun at my constant rants against Mac's offense.

And then everyone later stopped making fun and joined in the ranting.

Funny how that goes. 

[Travis]

We won't be 128 out of 128.  No way in hell.

[MEANGREENCOACH2]

16 minutes ago, Travis said:

We won't be 128 out of 128.  No way in hell.

we could be ranked that in Time of possession if things dont go correct! 

[Mean_Green09]

1 hour ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

How can you predict a Littrell offense to be dead last? 

Pretty easy when you evaluate the talent currently on the roster and the tremendous amount of question marks on guys we are hoping are good.

I'm not saying we finish there, but those on the outside looking aren't really buying into the potential

Id imagine we end up ranked between 60-80

[GMG24]

1 hour ago, UNT90 said:

I didn't put it there in the first place. 

It was actually put there by a mod to kind of poke fun at my constant rants against Mac's offense.

And then everyone later stopped making fun and joined in the ranting.

Funny how that goes. 

Lol that is funny.  I can't figure out how to change mine to Tee it High and Let it Fly

[untjim1995]

1 hour ago, Ben Gooding said:

Hint: Scroll all the way to the bottom. 

They do have our offense at a predicted rank of 128/128. I think, if anything, that will change drastically to what they are predicting. In hand, so will our rank moving forward in the season. GMG

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/114561/lsu-sit-atop-preseason-fpi-1-0

I think that there's a very real chance that we may well be the worst team again, but our offense won't be the worst in the country. We will score points, assuming Morris can run this offense--and I bet he can. But our defense is what will keep us at the bottom of FBS. We don't have any size or speed on that side of the ball. It won't surprise me to see this year look like a Dodge-type season, where are offense puts up lots of yards and points in garbage time, but the defense will not stop anyone.

I have us winning 2 games this year, against Bethune-Cookman and one of our Texas opponents (most likely UTSA). There is a reason we aren't favored in any game, except Bethune-Cookman and that we are ranked dead-ass last by ESPN right now. The talent just isn't there and the coaching staff is as green as a freshly picked banana. We just have to accept that this is a year to re-start the program. And its a very real possibility that we can only match last season's win total because of the pit that Mac left us in. The wins and losses that matter the most in 2016 aren't on the field--they are in the homes and locker rooms of Texas HS recruits and their coaches. If we go 1-11 again, but have a class that ranks above 90 overall, then this will have been a year where improvement was made in a very tangible fashion. Littrell is learning on the fly--and it will be his recruiting that is the easiest way to influence where this program goes in the years after 2016.

 

[Ben Gooding]

5 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

I think that there's a very real chance that we may well be the worst team again, but our offense won't be the worst in the country. We will score points, assuming Morris can run this offense--and I bet he can. But our defense is what will keep us at the bottom of FBS. We don't have any size or speed on that side of the ball. It won't surprise me to see this year look like a Dodge-type season, where are offense puts up lots of yards and points in garbage time, but the defense will not stop anyone.

I have us winning 2 games this year, against Bethune-Cookman and one of our Texas opponents (most likely UTSA). There is a reason we aren't favored in any game, except Bethune-Cookman and that we are ranked dead-ass last by ESPN right now. The talent just isn't there and the coaching staff is as green as a freshly picked banana. We just have to accept that this is a year to re-start the program. And its a very real possibility that we can only match last season's win total because of the pit that Mac left us in. The wins and losses that matter the most in 2016 aren't on the field--they are in the homes and locker rooms of Texas HS recruits and their coaches. If we go 1-11 again, but have a class that ranks above 90 overall, then this will have been a year where improvement was made in a very tangible fashion. Littrell is learning on the fly--and it will be his recruiting that is the easiest way to influence where this program goes in the years after 2016.

 

I was unaware spreads were already out 6-9 months in advance. 

[untjim1995]

 In yesterday's article from SBNation about why the Mean Green are always bad, they used their simulation to look at 2016's upcoming season and to see what our chances of winning each game would be. The only one we were favored to win in their program was against Bethune-Cookman.

 

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	SMU	98	-7.7	33%
10-Sep	Bethune-Cookman	NR	7.3	66%
17-Sep	at Florida	18	-35.9	2%
24-Sep	at Rice	119	-7.9	32%
1-Oct	Middle Tennessee	90	-10.1	28%
8-Oct	Marshall	75	-14.8	20%
22-Oct	at Army	124	-5.9	37%
29-Oct	at UTSA	116	-8.2	32%
5-Nov	Louisiana Tech	84	-11.9	25%
12-Nov	at Western Kentucky	45	-27.0	6%
19-Nov	Southern Miss	72	-15.2	19%
26-Nov	at UTEP	126	-4.4	40%

Edited February 9, 2016 by untjim1995

[UNTFan23]

I don't give the FPI ranking much credence because of several factors that go into the calculation.  Even thought they say they take out objectivity they rely on recruiting rankings, which have some well-documented slants to it.  Coaching tenure is another component to the ranking, so naturally schools like us are at the bottom. I like how ESPN went so far as to say despite being the top of this ranking the Bayou Bengals might not even be favored to win the SEC.

[EagleMBA]

1 hour ago, Mean_Green09 said:

Pretty easy when you evaluate the talent currently on the roster and the tremendous amount of question marks on guys we are hoping are good.

I'm not saying we finish there, but those on the outside looking aren't really buying into the potential

Id imagine we end up ranked between 60-80

This. I would also add the adaptation-to-new-systems on both sides of the ball and the integration of fresh JUCO players into the team chemistry. All of the above might make for a slow start to the season, but we will not end up last by any means. I think there are so many variables that the FPI people just went all Missouri on us..."show me".

[Cerebus]

1 hour ago, untjim1995 said:

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	SMU	98	-7.7	33%
10-Sep	Bethune-Cookman	NR	7.3	66%
17-Sep	at Florida	18	-35.9	2%
24-Sep	at Rice	119	-7.9	32%
1-Oct	Middle Tennessee	90	-10.1	28%
8-Oct	Marshall	75	-14.8	20%
22-Oct	at Army	124	-5.9	37%
29-Oct	at UTSA	116	-8.2	32%
5-Nov	Louisiana Tech	84	-11.9	25%
12-Nov	at Western Kentucky	45	-27.0	6%
19-Nov	Southern Miss	72	-15.2	19%
26-Nov	at UTEP	126	-4.4	40%

[UNTFan23]

2 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

 2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	SMU	98	-7.7	33%
10-Sep	Bethune-Cookman	NR	7.3	66%
17-Sep	at Florida	18	-35.9	2%
24-Sep	at Rice	119	-7.9	32%
1-Oct	Middle Tennessee	90	-10.1	28%
8-Oct	Marshall	75	-14.8	20%
22-Oct	at Army	124	-5.9	37%
29-Oct	at UTSA	116	-8.2	32%
5-Nov	Louisiana Tech	84	-11.9	25%
12-Nov	at Western Kentucky	45	-27.0	6%
19-Nov	Southern Miss	72	-15.2	19%
26-Nov	at UTEP	126	-4.4	40%

[UNT90]

56 minutes ago, Cerebus said:

The denial in this thread runs strong, Obiwan...

What? Wrong Space Movie?

[oldguystudent]

2 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

 In yesterday's article from SBNation about why the Mean Green are always bad, they used their simulation to look at 2016's upcoming season and to see what our chances of winning each game would be. The only one we were favored to win in their program was against Bethune-Cookman.

 

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	SMU	98	-7.7	33%
10-Sep	Bethune-Cookman	NR	7.3	66%
17-Sep	at Florida	18	-35.9	2%
24-Sep	at Rice	119	-7.9	32%
1-Oct	Middle Tennessee	90	-10.1	28%
8-Oct	Marshall	75	-14.8	20%
22-Oct	at Army	124	-5.9	37%
29-Oct	at UTSA	116	-8.2	32%
5-Nov	Louisiana Tech	84	-11.9	25%
12-Nov	at Western Kentucky	45	-27.0	6%
19-Nov	Southern Miss	72	-15.2	19%
26-Nov	at UTEP	126	-4.4	40%

This gives us a .000010536% chance of running the table.

 

[GrandGreen]

Well, the only way to go, is up.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ben Gooding]

7 minutes ago, oldguystudent said:

This gives us a .000010536% chance of running the table.

 

This gets me every time. 

[UNTFan23]

Just now, Eagle1855 said:

I don't know. Our recruiting hasn't been very good and our football team hasn't been very good. Seems to be a fairly good correlation there. In fact, if memory serves, our only good season in the past decade came from a bunch of Dodge recruits in one of our better-rated classes. 

Additionally, if we pulled a Top 25-50 class, I think we'd all be pretty happy with the rating. I think the issue is, we've not been very good at recruiting -- for a long, long time. 

We were a bad football team in 2015. We probably won't be measurably better in 2016. But we're headed in the right direction with this staff. Plus, there's nowhere to go but up. BRIGHT SIDE. 

There are plenty of documented cases where a 4 star goes to a G5 school and instantly loses a star or two.  That's what I was referencing.

[Ben Gooding]

6 minutes ago, UNTFan23 said:

There are plenty of documented cases where a 4 star goes to a G5 school and instantly loses a star or two.  That's what I was referencing.

^ This is very true. 

[VideoEagle]

Guys, if you actually read the top of the article it tells the methodology. 

Quote

The model comprises four major components: the last four seasons of performance on offense, defense and special teams, with the most recent season counting most; information on offensive and defensive returning starters, with special consideration given to a team returning its starting quarterback or gaining a transfer quarterback with experience; a four-year average recruiting ranking of four systems (ESPN, Scouts, Rivals and Phil Steele); and head coaching tenure. These four components interact and are assigned different weights depending on the team to produce preseason FPI.

Start with last four season of performance and we were awful. We are gaining a transfer quarterback who hasn't thrown a pass in several years so not much experience. The a four year average recruiting ranking based on four systems - all of which have ranked us poorly. Then is head coach tenure - less than four months. Of course a system based  this way is going to rank us poorly.

Don't worry about it, it's not worth the effort. 

 

[UNT90]

12 hours ago, GrandGreen said:

Well, the only way to go, is up.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'd be careful with that statement...

10 hours ago, VideoEagle said:

Guys, if you actually read the top of the article it tells the methodology. 

Start with last four season of performance and we were awful. We are gaining a transfer quarterback who hasn't thrown a pass in several years so not much experience. The a four year average recruiting ranking based on four systems - all of which have ranked us poorly. Then is head coach tenure - less than four months. Of course a system based  this way is going to rank us poorly.

Don't worry about it, it's not worth the effort. 

 

Guess what. ANY system would rank UNT poorly. And we should absolutely be worried about it.

Also, several on here have given some variation of the statement "there is no way to go but up." That is factually inaccurate and it scares the hell out of me that people are saying this. 

Edited February 10, 2016 by UNT90

[untcampbell]

For a guy who is trying to get his investment in the program (club seats) back, you sure let a lot scare the hell out of you. You are writing off the program. Just shake your head and relax, dude.

GMG