Mason Fine

[UNTLifer]

10 hours ago, TroyFootball05 said:

 

 

 

 

http://www.cfbstats.com/2017/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category21/sort03.html

You will lose. 

Oh, had a question. Does Troy still have their fan group on My Space?

[peanuts104]

1 hour ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Maybe our offensive stats dont mean much to Troy fans after we played Lamar, Rice & UTEP?

Stop sleeping on Troy y'all.  They're very good.

What about our offensive stats against army?  We are the only team to put up more than 40 on them all year?  I'm not sleeping on Troy, but there's no reason to freak out either.

[TroyFootball05]

20 minutes ago, meangreenlax said:

Oh come on. Nobody is sleeping on Troy. They have a similar SOS, and obviously beating LSU was a huge win. They're a very good team, and with our shoddy defense, we might very well lose. 

Hot take: the Sun Belt is the worst conference in FBS, hands down. CUSA might be terrible, but its definitely better than the Fun Belt. There's much more parity, and the games as a whole are way more competitive. Inflated stats from beating up on glorified FCS teams like Idaho, Texas State, Coastal, Georgia Southern, etc. doesn't really impress me. Sorry. Troy, App St. and A-State are the only good teams in that conference.  Lets trade Rice, UTEP, Charlotte, and ODU for them.

ESPN and several others say our strength of schedule is virtually the same. Time to drop the inflated stats argument. The SBC is the worst, but CUSA is not much better. As shown below, our SOS was virtually identical. You can't say we have similar SOS and then say our stats are inflated. That makes no sense.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal...s-2017-sos
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-foo...h-by-other
http://www.espn.com/college-football/sta...0826040000

[meangreenlax]

Just now, TroyFootball05 said:

ESPN and several others say our strength of schedule is virtually the same. Time to drop the inflated stats argument. The SBC is the worst, but CUSA is not much better. As shown below, our SOS was virtually identical. You can't say we have similar SOS and then say our stats are inflated. That makes no sense.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal...s-2017-sos
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-foo...h-by-other
http://www.espn.com/college-football/sta...0826040000

I'm willing to bet that the reason the SOS is so high is because of LSU being on the schedule. 

[TreeFiddy]

Just now, TroyFootball05 said:

ESPN and several others say our strength of schedule is virtually the same. Time to drop the inflated stats argument. The SBC is the worst, but CUSA is not much better. As shown below, our SOS was virtually identical. You can't say we have similar SOS and then say our stats are inflated. That makes no sense.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal...s-2017-sos
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-foo...h-by-other
http://www.espn.com/college-football/sta...0826040000

Arky State has a similar offense to North Texas.  Why did your defense give up 600+ yards to them?  It sounds like Troy was extremely lucky to come away with a win in that game.  

[TroyFootball05]

I'm just here to talk stats. Don't misunderstand me, North Texas is a tough team and we'll have to play as well as we did vs ARKST to beat you guys. Much respect.

I hope all of you can make it to New Orleans. If I see one of you on the street I'll buy you a beer or two. I heard Bourbon Street might be closed due to construction. Any truth to that?

[TroyFootball05]

1 minute ago, meangreenlax said:

I'm willing to bet that the reason the SOS is so high is because of LSU being on the schedule. 

It's also a game we won. So that argument doesn't really help you. It's no secret that Troy was not LSU's best game, but they were 49-0 in Death Valley vs non-conference. Almost no G5's ever get that kind of win vs that type of opponent even when they're at their worst. Bigtime P5's almost always win. This time they didn't and Troy got the win. It's a testament to Neal Brown's staff.

[TroyFootball05]

5 minutes ago, TreeFiddy said:

Arky State has a similar offense to North Texas.  Why did your defense give up 600+ yards to them?  It sounds like Troy was extremely lucky to come away with a win in that game.  

He's a true dual threat QB. Our defense can't handle a guy who runs that much. We also don't defend Triple Option offenses well either, but that's neither here nor there. Hansen has over six times the rushing yards Fine has. Troy's bread and butter is confusing the QB with exotic looks. We can tee up against pocket passers doing this relatively well. When the QB decides to run every two or three plays it takes away our advantage.

Edited December 8, 2017 by TroyFootball05

[meangreenlax]

Just now, TroyFootball05 said:

It's also a game we won. So that argument doesn't really help you. It's no secret that Troy was not LSU's best game, but they were 49-0 in Death Valley vs non-conference. Almost no G5's ever get that kind of win vs that type of opponent even when they're at their worst. Bigtime P5's almost always win. This time they didn't and Troy got the win. It's a testament to Neal Brown's staff.

My argument is that LSU is an outlier in Troy's SOS calculation. SOS(garbage team + garbage team + top 25 team) > SOS(okay team + mediocre team + mediocre team).

Y'all caught them sleeping. It was a tall task, and y'all played your hearts out. You also lost the following week. 

[TroyFootball05]

17 minutes ago, meangreenlax said:

My argument is that LSU is an outlier in Troy's SOS calculation. SOS(garbage team + garbage team + top 25 team) > SOS(okay team + mediocre team + mediocre team).

Y'all caught them sleeping. It was a tall task, and y'all played your hearts out. You also lost the following week. 

That's fair. As I said, LSU was down a few players, but most G5s over the last ten years would have lost that game. P5s even when sleeping on their opponents usually always pull out a last second win. They didn't and Troy got the "W". Credit to our staff. Neal Brown teams do not do well the week after a big win. Hopefully two weeks is enough to prep for you guys without getting a big head with all the ring sizing they'll be doing.

As far as LSU making that big of difference, Iowa has the same rating on Massey. So you have one big team to bring up your SOS as well. They're also one team out of 12, so when you do the math, they don't affect our SOS that much. As I said, not much difference between our schedules.

Edited December 8, 2017 by TroyFootball05

[MeanGreenTexan]

10 minutes ago, meangreenlax said:

My argument is that LSU is an outlier in Troy's SOS calculation. SOS(garbage team + garbage team + top 25 team) > SOS(okay team + mediocre team + mediocre team).

Y'all caught them sleeping. It was a tall task, and y'all played your hearts out. You also lost the following week. 

Why are we discounting their win over LSU?   That was a great win, and it's likely one of the main reasons our bowl game is rated so highly by all of these publications ranking the bowls.
If NT would have beat Iowa, would we downplay our own win ("Akrum Wadley was out halfway through the 1st quarter!",  "Iowa had penalties that directly cost them 2TDs",  "Caught them sleeping", etc...)?

[meangreenlax]

6 minutes ago, TroyFootball05 said:

That's fair. As I said, LSU was down a few players, but most G5s over the last ten years would have lost that game. P5s even when sleeping on their opponents usually always pull out a last second win. They didn't and Troy got the "W". Credit to our staff. Neal Brown teams does not do well the week after a big win. Hopefully two weeks is enough to prep for you guys without getting a big head with all the ring sizing they'll be doing.

As far as LSU making that big of difference, Iowa has the same rating on Massey. So you have one big team to bring up your SOS as well. They're also one team out of 12, so when you do the math, they don't affect our SOS that much. As I said, not much difference between our schedules.

Not going to split hairs, I pretty much agree with you. Macro statistics have been very unkind to UNT this year. I think we’re still ranked below teams we beat in a couple of the FBS ranking algorithms. 

Bottom line is that UNT and Troy are pretty evenly matched and it’ll be a good game. 

[meangreenlax]

3 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

If NT would have beat Iowa, would we downplay our own win ("Akrum Wadley was out halfway through the 1st quarter!",  "Iowa had penalties that directly cost them 2TDs",  "Caught them sleeping", etc...)?

I could almost guarantee that would happen. I don’t mean to discredit the win. However if you play that game 10 times, LSU wins 9. That’s just a reality of FBS football. 

[Green Lantern]

1 minute ago, Prettylittleeagle said:

They aren't the same and these articles don't say that either.

You play some seriously terrible schools that are D2/FCS quality.

Dude.  Stop trying to flame this guy.  He's here talking about the football game in a respectful way.  

Also, no need to trash the Sun Belt. We came from there a few years back.  We're definitely not too good to play Troy, who is rated in front of us in virtually every poll.  The top programs in in the Belt can compete with anyone in G5. 

[TroyFootball05]

8 minutes ago, Prettylittleeagle said:

They aren't the same and these articles don't say that either.

You play some seriously terrible schools that are D2/FCS quality.

They absolutely do:

ESPN SOS: Troy 123, UNT 117 

TEAMRAKINGS SOS: Troy 100, UNT 99

S&P+ RESUME: Troy 37, UNT 56

Yes, in the S&P, we're getting a boost for beating LSU on our "resume". The other two clearly show that Troy and UNT have similar schedules. Both CUSA and the SBC have some terrible schools. We have a few really good ones too. 

Edited December 8, 2017 by TroyFootball05

[pastorgrant]

Just now, TroyFootball05 said:

They absolutely do:

ESPN SOS: Troy 123, UNT 117 

TEAMRAKINGS: Troy 100, UNT 99

S&P+ RESUME: Troy 37, UNT 56

Yes, in the S&P, we're getting a boost for beating LSU on our "resume". The other two clearly show that Troy and UNT have similar schedules. Both CUSA and the SBC have some terrible schools. We have a few really good ones too. 

Our SOS was dragged down a lot by Lamar, UTEP, and Rice.

 

For the remaining 10 games, though, the week to week schedule is significantly different.

[meangreenlax]

I'm of the opinion that you can find a dataset to back up any position, football or otherwise. http://www.compughterratings.com/FBS/rankings

North Texas

Points per Game	35.9
Points Against	33.8
Opponent Record	78-77
Average Opponent Rank	144.5

Troy

Points per Game	29.9
Points Against	17.5
Opponent Record	64-78
Average Opponent Rank	190.8

[TroyFootball05]

4 minutes ago, meangreenlax said:

I'm of the opinion that you can find a dataset to back up any position, football or otherwise. http://www.compughterratings.com/FBS/rankings

North Texas

Points per Game	35.9
Points Against	33.8
Opponent Record	78-77
Average Opponent Rank	144.5

Troy

Points per Game	29.9
Points Against	17.5
Opponent Record	64-78
Average Opponent Rank	190.8

I won't argue that. It's a fair point. I will say that all other's that I have seen show them relatively close. ESPN's is probably the most robust. I won't discount it entirely though, as I have said I do think CUSA is the better conference, just not the world of difference many fans make it out to be.

[Wag Tag]

9 minutes ago, meangreenlax said:

I'm of the opinion that you can find a dataset to back up any position, football or otherwise. http://www.compughterratings.com/FBS/rankings

North Texas

Points per Game	35.9
Points Against	33.8
Opponent Record	78-77
Average Opponent Rank	144.5

Troy

Points per Game	29.9
Points Against	17.5
Opponent Record	64-78
Average Opponent Rank	190.8

We have to keep Fine upright to win the game. FIU defense kept everything in front of them and then pressured Fine. We have to get some kind of run game going!

Edited December 8, 2017 by Wag Tag

[meangreenthirteen]

13 hours ago, TroyFootball05 said:

Check these out (national stats):

Troy Sacks: 12th / 3 per game / 36 sacks
UNT Sacks Allowed: 101st / 2.5 per game / 33 sacks allowed

Looks like Fine won't be so fine against Troy.

Troy Tackles For Loss: 5th / 8.42 per game / 101 Tackles For Loss
UNT Tackles For Loss Allowed: 115th / 6.54 per game / 85 Tackles For Loss Allowed

Defensively we will likely win the line of scrimmage.

Troy Kick Returns: 2nd
UNT Kick Return Defense: 107th

Marcus Jones has three returns for a TD in the last few games. This is a another huge mismatch to give Troy great field position.

Troy Rushing Defense: 7th / 3.03 ypr
UNT Rush Offense: 47th / 4.65 ypr

This might be the best rushing attack we've seen this year. But without your top running back, I'll give the edge to Troy.

Troy Red Zone Defense: 1st / 58%
UNT Red Zone Offense: 25th / 89%

I do think you'll get some point here, but we'll win a lot those battles as well.

Note: Arkansas State's Hansen has able to put up big yards not just because he was a great passer, but because our Achilles' heel is a running QB. Without his ability to run, he wouldn't have been as effective through the air. The Troy defense is best against a true pocket passer. With your top running back out, and our 7th ranked rush defense, Fine will have to try and win this game on his own. That's a tall task even for a 1st Team QB going against this Troy pass rush. We can talk about your defensive statistics later ;)

Overall I think your QB is great, but this the best front seven you've seen all year. The run game likely won't happen for you, and Fine will have to make something happen. It doesn't look like your offensive line is good at blocking, and that's bad news vs this Troy defense.

One more note: Our DC is Vic Koenning. He was Clemson's DC from 2005 to 2008 and had four Top 15 defenses there. He is a seasoned big time P5 defensive  coordinator. He's been successful everywhere. We currently have the 11th ranked scoring defense in the country, right where it was when he was at Clemson. Our head coach was the OC at Troy during our title run when you guys where there, and then had three Top 25 offenses at Texas Tech. Our defense plays against what you guys run everyday so they'll be no real secrets. Mason Fine will have to carry his team and be a true X-Factor. Here's more info on Vic Koenning and Neal Brown as coordinators:

http://csnbbs.com/thread-719423-post-11555381.html#pid11555381

I've heard you guys say that you've played better competition. The experts say otherwise. All of the major outlets say there is virtually no difference between our schedules.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal...s-2017-sos
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-foo...h-by-other
http://www.espn.com/college-football/sta...0826040000

Y'all won't even be the second best front 7 we've faced this year.

[MeanGreenTexan]

7 minutes ago, meangreenthirteen said:

Y'all won't even be the second best front 7 we've faced this year.

This may be true.

SMU's front 7 was pretty stout and included a likely NFL draft choice (late rounds) - Justin Lawler
UTSA's front 7 was very stout and included a likely NFL draft choice (early rounds) - Marcus Davenport
And I assume you mean the 1st-best front 7 we saw was Iowa, with a likely NFL draft choice (early rounds) - Josey Jewell

[TroyFootball05]

4 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

This may be true.

SMU's front 7 was pretty stout and included a likely NFL draft choice (late rounds) - Justin Lawler
UTSA's front 7 was very stout and included a likely NFL draft choice (early rounds) - Marcus Davenport
And I assume you mean the 1st-best front 7 we saw was Iowa, with a likely NFL draft choice (early rounds) - Josey Jewell

To each his own I guess. SMU's rush defense is 107th, our is 7th. Hard to argue their front is somehow better than ours. We also lead them in sacks and tackles for loss by a good margin. UTSA is 50 spots behind Troy in all three major statistics you'd use to measure a team's front seven: Rush Defense, Sacks, and Tackles for Loss. As for Iowa, they are also significantly lower than Troy in all of those stats, but they play in a big boy conference, so I won't argue that one.

[MeanGreenTexan]

10 minutes ago, TroyFootball05 said:

To each his own I guess. SMU's rush defense is 107th, our is 7th. Hard to argue their front is somehow better than ours. We also lead them in sacks and tackles for loss by a good margin. UTSA is 50 spots behind Troy in all three major statistics you'd use to measure a team's front seven: Rush Defense, Sacks, and Tackles for Loss. As for Iowa, they are also significantly lower than Troy in all of those stats, but they play in a big boy conference, so I won't argue that one.

What I've seen this season is the NT has a huge problem trying to contain the superior PLAYER.   Courtland Sutton, Motor Singletary, the guys I mentioned above, etc...

You guys may play sound defensive football, disguise blitzes well, etc...  but if you don't have that ONE GUY that gives us fits, I think we'll be OK.

[Aldo]

I'm not gonna pretend I read anything but Sagarin has NT sos at 101 and Troy at 135.

But that won't explain crap.

Advanced metrics have us matched pretty evenly giving us nearly a 50/50 shot. Troy is favored, but only slightly.

Rush offenses are even. Troy better defenses. NT better pass offense. 

[greenminer]

11 hours ago, peanuts104 said:

 You can bet they'll be angry and highly motivated to compete and perform. 

They werent angry and highly motivated for revenge in the CUSA title game? That’s unsettling