MGB weekly prediction: UNT will pull through against rival UTSA

[Brett Vito]

MGB:

http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/2015/10/prediction-unt-will-pull-through-and-beat-utsa-in-budding-rivalry-game.html/

 

[MeanGreenTexan]

Brett, you 'homer' you!

 

[Eagle-96]

If this happens will the fan storm the field.

Edited October 29, 2015 by Eagle-96

[medpilot21]

Sorry Brett.. but I must disagree. I am extremely happy Chico is letting D. Smitty drive the car for the remaining 100 laps. He deserves the time to learn as much as he can this season. However, let's be honest about our defense. First, SMU is horrid, and they hung 30 plus on us. Second, Portland State (a good FCS Team, but still a FCS Team) hung 60 plus on us. Third, UTSA lost to Arizona by 10 points (42-32) and lost to both Colorado State and La. Tech by 3 points or less in each game? That team should have a better record than 1-6. I know the North Texas Defense is working out the kinks, but I think this game will be more of a defensive challenge than is being advertised. For the record, I have the score 38 - 21 MOPAR, which is respectable. I am also on record as saying I don't care if we win another game THIS year, as long as our younger players get the bulk of the playing time. Chico seems to be doing just that, so I say well done Coach Canales! I hope the next Head Coach benefits from your efforts. 

Get the kinks out now Demarcus. Improve each week and be even better next year! Also a small request for our young CB's.. Please get closer to the line of scrimmage? A receiver shouldn't be yelling "I'm open" before the ball is snapped..

GMG!!! 

[greenminer]

Looks like our defense allows more than a yard per play, and 100+ more yards per game than UTSA's defense.

Factoring the quality of opponents they've faced, I am pessimistic about a win.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2015/leader/national/team/defense/split01/category10/sort01.html

It would be interesting to compare those two statistical categories when separating McCarney's team from Canales'.  Maybe a big difference, or maybe nothing.

[UNT90]

Think you are wrong, Vito. Best shot at a win is UTEP. They will have mailed it in and UNT will be desperately attempting to avoid history. 

Just like SMU last year...

[Mean Green 93-98]

Brett, you 'homer' you!

 

Don't worry, he'll call for UT-SA to beat us by 20 in the San Antonio paper.

[EagleMBA]

 

Edited October 30, 2015 by EagleMBA

[HoustonEagle]

Like the optimism Vito!

[UNTexas]

Or they could beat us 66-7...

[TheWestie]

Damn Spiriki... You looking fierce...

[UNTpolitico]

Not saying he's even a candidate for coach or implying anything but I think this is a test for whether Chico can get a team behind him.. 

[HarringtonFishSmeller]

MGB:

http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/2015/10/prediction-unt-will-pull-through-and-beat-utsa-in-budding-rivalry-game.html/

 

The Mean Green posted a season-high point total in a 55-28 loss to the Hilltoppers, but took a step back last week. Marshall held UNT to one garbage-time touchdown in a 30-13 loss.

We got two garbage time touchdowns against WKU.  So....

[HarringtonFishSmeller]

Think you are wrong, Vito. Best shot at a win is UTEP. They will have mailed it in and UNT will be desperately attempting to avoid history. 

Just like SMU last year...

UTEP is 3-4, could still get to bowl eligibility this season.  Their remaining schedule:

10/31:  @ Southern Miss
11/06:  Rice
11/14:  @ Old Dominion
11/21: Louisiana Tech
11/28:  @ UNT

It's not unthinkable that they could beat Old Dominion and us.  If they can pick off just one among Southern Miss, Rice,and La Tech, they'd be in a bowl.  Unlikely, but....

[southsideguy]

upset here unt 31 utsa 28

[Matt from A700]

When's the last time Vito predicted a Mean Green victory? Refreshing to read. Too many consecutive weeks of "MGB weekly prediction: UNT will continue slide against _______".

[Ryan Munthe]

I also think we will win. But I also was positive about SMU, and WKU.

[GrandGreen]

I'm with Vito, I think it happens tomorrow, NT's first win.  

[oldguystudent]

When's the last time Vito predicted a Mean Green victory? Refreshing to read. Too many consecutive weeks of "MGB weekly prediction: UNT will continue slide against _______".

You haven't been reading him this season, have you?  He's been predicting victories week after week.

[southsideguy]

Third time is a charm

[UNT90]

When's the last time Vito predicted a Mean Green victory? Refreshing to read. Too many consecutive weeks of "MGB weekly prediction: UNT will continue slide against _______".

Rice.

So, not that long ago

[Mean Green 93-98]

When's the last time Vito predicted a Mean Green victory? Refreshing to read. Too many consecutive weeks of "MGB weekly prediction: UNT will continue slide against _______".

Rice.

So, not that long ago

Actually, it's been a little more recent than that:

Prediction:

This game almost seems like a last stand for UNT this season. The Mean Green are already 0-4 and have two tough games ahead following their showdown with Portland State against Western Kentucky and Marshall. If UNT doesn’t win this game, it’s staring directly at the possibility of an 0-7 start. This is a game UNT is paying for. It’s one UNT has to win. In the end, UNT will ride its running game to its first win of the season.

Score: UNT 23, Portland State 21

http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/2015/10/prediction-unt-will-pull-through-on-homecoming.html/

 

[Mean_Green09]

The Mean Green posted a season-high point total in a 55-28 loss to the Hilltoppers, but took a step back last week. Marshall held UNT to one garbage-time touchdown in a 30-13 loss.

We got two garbage time touchdowns against WKU.  So....

You know that TD against Marshall was our 2's vs Marshall's 2's. Still garbage time, but it wasnt 1s on 1s.

http://meangreennation.com/breakdown-texas-san-antonio-utsa/

I think we match-up pretty good with them. Im not that impressed by their defense as some are. We are doing enough right now on offense to win this game.

If we play the way we did against Marshall in the second half then Id expect us to win. 

Their offense is pretty limited with Dalton Sturm. NT can pressure him into mistakes. No reason for us not to load the box and stop the run. 

This is a very winnable game. We bottomed out vs Portland St and have been improving each week. One could make the argument that UTSA is trending down.

[UNT90]

 

 

 

Actually, it's been a little more recent than that:

http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/2015/10/prediction-unt-will-pull-through-on-homecoming.html/

 

That's right. My bad. 

He was just 60 points off the mark.

SIXTY!!!!!!

[HarringtonFishSmeller]

You know that TD against Marshall was our 2's vs Marshall's 2's. Still garbage time, but it wasnt 1s on 1s.

http://meangreennation.com/breakdown-texas-san-antonio-utsa/

I think we match-up pretty good with them. Im not that impressed by their defense as some are. We are doing enough right now on offense to win this game.

If we play the way we did against Marshall in the second half then Id expect us to win. 

Their offense is pretty limited with Dalton Sturm. NT can pressure him into mistakes. No reason for us not to load the box and stop the run. 

This is a very winnable game. We bottomed out vs Portland St and have been improving each week. One could make the argument that UTSA is trending down.

True that they are trending down...on offense, due to their fourth string guy being in there (although, he did play the majority of their win versus UTEP).

Their defense, however, does not seem to be trending down:

Arizona:  42
Kansas State: 30
Oklahoma State: 69
Colorado State: 31
UTEP: 6
La Tech: 34
Southern Miss: 32

Two of the leaders of the division La Tech and Southern Miss scored 34 and 32 against them.  Great?  No.  But, we gave up 49 to Southern Miss and 38 to Rice, another leader in the division.

Their defense appears to give up 30-35 to good teams non-P5 schools:  Colorado State, La Tech, and Southern Miss, three teams likely to be in bowl games following the season.  We are not a good non-P5 school right now.

Are we saying that our offense can put up the same numbers CSU, La Tech, and S Miss did against them?  Or, are we saying that their fourth string QB has them so hamstrung that there should be no way they can outscore us, even in an ugly, low scoring game?

Personally, I think it's a draw due to their better defense and our better special teams.  My bet is our punters can keep them pinned far enough back to give us an edge.

And, yes...I'm really depressed to have to write that I think the punters might be the difference in the game.
 

Edited October 30, 2015 by HarringtonFishSmeller