Latest Saragin

eulesseagle · October 3, 2006

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc06.htm

There are three D-1AA conferences, Great West, Atlantic 10 and Gateway, that are rated better than the Sun Best Conference.

The way I see it, unfortunately, all the coaches in this conference are in the same boat as Coach Dickey.

I am not advocating to either keep or replace the football coaching staff but these are terrible times in the SBC.

The SBC is the last conference for any HS prospect to play D-1A ball.

The SBC has the worst OOC record of "any" conference.

The SBC has all its teams in the "lower" tier of D-1A schools.

The SBC only has parity, kind of, because everyone is equally bad.

GrandGreen · October 3, 2006

Imo it would almost be impossible for a 1aa football conference to actually be better than a 1a league. Good 1aa teams can and are better than some bottom dwelling 1a teams, but not a conference as a whole.

This is a very big flaw in Sagarin's model. The probability that a group of teams with 20 less ships, fewer coaches, and less overall resources is going to be superior to a 1a conference is remote.

CMJ · October 3, 2006

Agreed.

badgerwolf · October 3, 2006

Imo it would almost be impossible for a 1aa football conference to actually be better than a 1a league. Good 1aa teams can and are better than some bottom dwelling 1a teams, but not a conference as a whole.
This is a very big flaw in Sagarin's model. The probability that a group of teams with 20 less ships, fewer coaches, and less overall resources is going to be superior to a 1a conference is remote.
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You are correct; unfortunately his poll casts a negative perception that is hard to shake.

eulesseagle · October 3, 2006

I know some of you do not give a hoot about the Saragin Ratings but currently there are 21 D-1AA schools that are ranked higher than UNT and most of the other SBC members.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt06.htm

Yea, there are three D-1AA conferences that are ranked higher than the SBC but I bet UNT would get beat by, at least 1/4 of these teams in those conferences like we are playing today.

Do you think we would have a chance against Montana, New Hampshire or Youngstown State?? These teams have guys who were turned down by D-1A. What is wrong with that picture?

Evidently UNT has inherent problems with various sections of the team that is not getting corrected soon enough and we all pretty much know what they are without getting into a disertation.

Can these problems be overcome by utilizing the talents of the players, IMHO, yes.

Do I think they are happening fast enough? no

IMHO there are overall problems that are not getting corrected or not corrected fast enough for everyone's pleasure.

Arkstfan · October 3, 2006

Sagarin looks at two things.

I-AA gets skewed upward because of winning percentage and comparing scores.

Right now the Great West is the highest rated I-AA league.

North Dakota State is 4-0.

They beat I-A Ball State. Ball is 1-4 with losses to two Big 10 schools by a combined 11. Only win was at home against Eastern Michigan (the only I-A ULL has beaten).

They routed a Div II

They beat two I-AA teams that are combined 1-9 by a combined 21.

Cal Poly is 4-1

They routed a Div II

They beat three I-AA teams that are combined 6-8

They lost by 10 to I-A San Jose State

Southern Utah is 3-2

They beat two Division II

They beat 1-3 Texas State

They lost to two I-AA's that are combined 6-4

Cal Davis is 2-2

They lost to TCU

They lost to 4-1 Youngstown State

IMPORTANT. They ROUTED Montana State who had beaten Colorado but has a Division II loss among their three losses.

They beat a 1-4 I-AA.

South Dakota State is 2-3

They lost to a Division II

They lost to two I-AA that are 5-3 (but one had a 1 point loss at Iowa State)

They beat two I-AA's that are a combined 2-6.

The Great West is rated several notches ahead of the Sun Belt and Sagarin says that three of those teams are good enough to be favored on a neutral site against any Sun Belt team. I don't buy that.

Sagarin says that the 2004 Harvard team was 8 points better than 2004 Troy and 13 points better than UNT. For that matter they were rated 2 points better than an 8-4 UTEP team, equal to a 6-6 UCLA, almost seven points better than the Southern Miss team that beat you in the New Orleans Bowl. In fact Sagarin says that team could have stayed within 3 touchdowns of undefeated Auburn that year.

Sagarin is interesting, but it does a poor job of comparing I-A to I-AA.

Arkstfan · October 3, 2006

Do you think we would have a chance against Montana, New Hampshire or Youngstown State?? These teams have guys who were turned down by D-1A. What is wrong with that picture?
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Two of New Hampshire's wins came over non-scholarship teams. Yeah they beat NWestern but their only wins are over middling MAC teams and they also lost to Nevada. The Northwestern win was a season-opener and weird stuff happens.

Youngstown's wins are over three I-AA's that are combined 5-8 and over a Division II.

Montana's wins are over a Division II and two I-AA's that are combined 4-5.

Yeah they are solid I-AA teams but it is hyperbole to say UNT wouldn't have a chance to beat any of them.

DeepGreen · October 3, 2006

One item missing here is the impact D1A transfers can have on a D1AA team. A program that transfers in a couple of studs from Florida, So. Miss., Arkansas can really effect a program. What impact will Bomar have on the Sam Houston State program when he is cleared to play? Look what Dustin Long did for Sam Houston the year he transferred in from Texas A & M. No sure where they ended up in the playoffs but he did make an impact and create excitement for that program.

eulesseagle · October 3, 2006

A State Fan--

What you say is correct on the Saragin Polls but like I said can UNT beat these D-1-AA teams that are ranked above them.......? I think they could win about 1/4 of the games (maybe) on how we are playing today.

A freaky win is a freaky win any day and the only place it counts is the W-L records for both schools.

eeally · October 3, 2006

UNT would beat the crap out of any d2 school.

Quoner · October 3, 2006

UNT would beat the crap out of any d2 school.
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Bold Statement. Courageous and risky.

I'll take it to the next level. UNT would beat the living piss out of any d3 school! I don't even want to go into what we would do to an NAIA school.....or Brookhaven community college....

PlummMeanGreen · October 3, 2006

Uh, # 15 out of 11 NCAA D1-A conferences? Don't think this is what Wright Waters had in mind.

But can we turn all this into an opportunity at UNT?

If UNT were to have an opening for our HFC position at UNT AND............. if we hire a high "enough: profile coach (I know, I'm using those 2 "H P" words a bit lately, arent' I)

Nevertheless......why can't it be such a hire that elevates the entire SBC across the board inasmuch as if we were to get a UTEP type hire, then a Top 25 ranking in a UNT coaches 2'nd year (as the Miners did with MPrice); then doesn't the entire SBC have to step up to the plate to raise their own football standards as well?

........................................

QUESTION: Who in the SBC has yet to put any of its teams in the same Top 25 neighborhood that WAC and MAC schools have done on more than just a few occasions?

Why can't that SBC school who pulls this off be UNT since we did (after all) have Top 20 rankings back in the mid-1970's? And for UNT to be able to do this again, do we hire yet another unknown project coach at our main campus in Denton, Texas, America? PS: This is really not rocket science for those on campus who would make it that.

.......................................

CUSA still on the mind? Folks, IMHO, the only way UNT gets into CUSA is if SMU does 1 or 2 things:

(1) Drops football (and who the heck knows, they might not do that just so they can keep UNT out of CUSA)!

(2) Closes the door of their university which is most likely not going to happen. :rolleyes

So maybe we just need to raise the ante (higher profile NCAA D1-A co-existance) with our SBC membership and our alma mater simply bloom where we are planted?

Edited October 3, 2006 by PlummMeanGreen

Arkstfan · October 3, 2006

A State Fan--
What you say is correct on the Saragin Polls but like I said can UNT beat these D-1-AA teams that are ranked above them.......? I think they could win about 1/4 of the games (maybe) on how we are playing today.
A freaky win is a freaky win any day and the only place it counts is the W-L records for both schools.
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I-AA teams can win at I-AA. It isn't a common occurence but it certainly happens. I've not seen UNT play this year, but I've been looking hard at the box scores and drive charts and outside of SMU, you guys look dreadful. Per the SMU fans, it sounds like SMU didn't really go to their true spread offense until the week after your game, I suspect their coach is second guessing that decision right now.

The best way to lose to a I-AA is to play them in the season opener or during a losing skid.

Eeally I wouldn't be quite so confident regarding Division II. Remember that they are not under the same initial eligibility requirements as I-A and I-AA schools. There is some serious talent at that level, catch a well coached squad that has a decent concentration of that talent and it could be trouble.

eeally · October 3, 2006

Sorry,

There maybe some D2 but the talent level at D1 is so much better. I really would put UNT ahead of most D2 schools.

The top 10 D2 may get close but really!

Who beats UNT this year? SFA, Texas State, Sam Houston?

Arkstfan · October 3, 2006

Sorry,
There maybe some D2 but the talent level at D1 is so much better. I really would put UNT ahead of most D2 schools.
The top 10 D2 may get close but really!
Who beats UNT this year? SFA, Texas State, Sam Houston?
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None of those schools are Division 2.