Now For A Sobering Dose Of Mean Green Reality

[gangrene]

My most trusted and favorite college football preview magazine is published by The Sporting News. If I want to read coverage limited to the geographical confinements of Texas, I'll pick up DCTF (which I also like). However, if I want national coverage and previews, I turn to The Sporting News College Football annual. It has very little coverage of the Sunbelt but, back in our 4-peat SBC championship days, we got pretty favorable coverage by TSN.

Those days are long gone. It's no big surprise that Troy is picked to repeat. What's disappointing is that UNT is picked to finish 7th, just ahead of FIU, which is projected to repeat another winless season. TSN has UNT ranked 113 out 119 teams and projects us to go 3-9 this year (they do not predict game-by-game wins/losses). I'll spare everyone wanting only the UNT coverage from shelling out the $7 by recapping everything that was published here:

From TSN College Football 2007:

Projected SBC finish: 7. North Texas

SN projection: 3-9

National rank: 113

Strengths: All but one starter returns to a defense that will have to adjust from last year's 3-4 to new coordinator Ron Mendoza's 4-3 scheme. Experience should ease that transition, especially with playmakers at every position.

Weaknesses: The Mean Green will switch to a spread offense, but there probably aren't enough pieces to pull it off. Only three receivers in spring drills were on scholarship, and quarterbacks who guided the league's worst pass offense are being asked to throw, throw, throw.

Bottom line: The defense will have to stiffen while a run-first, play-action offense transitions into a passing attack. The scheme worked for new coach Todd Dodge in the Texas high school ranks, but North Texas will need more time.

Starters back: Offense 5, Defense 10

Best players: DE Jeremiah Chapman, LB Maurice Holman, WR Brandon Jackson, P Truman Spencer, S Aaron Weathers

Impact newcomers: QB Giovanni Vizza, WR Breece Johnson

According to TSN, our toughest game is against OU, our must-win game is against FAU and our best chance to pull an upset is against La-Monroe.

Other tidbits -

SBC pre-season all-conference teams: UNT has zero players on offense, Maurice Holman is the only UNT player on defense and Truman Spencer made all-conference for punter.

SBC's 'On the Hot Seat': Todd Dodge, North Texas. Job security is not an issue, but skeptics will be watching to see if the Texas high school coaching legend can restore the magic that recently eluded his predecessor, Darrell Dickey. Dodge, a former North Texas assistant, will use a spread offense that helped him post a 79-1 record in a five-season stretch at Southlake Carroll High. There will be a learning curve--for both him and the players.

TSN ranks UNT's 2007 recruiting class as 6th best in the SBC with our "biggest prize" being Marquese Davis and our "instant impact" being Cam Montgomery.

North Texas unit rankings within the SBC:

Offense

Backfield: 6

Receivers: 8

O-line: 3

Overall: 7

Defense

D-line: 7

LBs: 4

DBs: 4

Overall: 5

Special teams: 4

Coaching: 8

And, last but not least, in the 'Scouting the Nation' section, they grade all of the D-1A coaching changes:

The hiring of Todd Dodge gets a C-. Here's what they have to say, "Todd Dodge, North Texas. A highly successful Texas prep coach at powerhouse Carroll High, Dodge will connect with recruits as he implements a pass-heavy attack."

It's interesting to note that Stanford received a D+ for hiring Jim Harbaugh and Tulane got an F for hiring Bob Toledo. The top 5 coordinator hires were: 1. Jimbo Fisher FSU, 2. Jay Norvell UCLA, 3. Sonny Dykes Arizona, 4. Gary Crowton LSU, 5. Larry Mac Texas.

I'm just a little bummed because, deep down, I think this analysis of UNT could be pretty accurate. While DCTF's prediction of a 7-5 season is nice to think about, I think we may be in store for a much rougher ride this year. I certainly hope I'm wrong.

[NorthTexan95]

What I find interesting is it states our offensive line is our best position compared to the conference. That really makes me question the quality of this analysis.

[NT03]

What I find interesting is it states our offensive line is our best position compared to the conference. That really makes me question the quality of this analysis.

Agreeded. If our line plays as our best position , then our backs would be off the chart. We have a former National Rushing Champion and a 4 star recruit , how many other teams in the Belt can say that ?? I know our QBs will not get any respect , but have 3 QB who have started a DI game and a stud frosh in the wings.

I can't argue too much with 3-9 , but I'm thinking more along the lines of 5-7/6-6

[UNTflyer]

The team fielded this year is still pretty much DD's team.

I'll be happy with a .500 season. We had some close games last year that could have been won with better coaching.

[MeanGreen61]

Here's a dose of facts ! North Texas is a huge question mark for the prognosticators. Yes TD has DD's players but how they adopt and adapt to the system may be a shocking surprise. Don't sell these kids or coaches short. There is a renewed enthusiasm after being coached to 2 and 3 win seasons. I doubt if we'll have as few wins as the so called experts predict.

Edited July 9, 2007 by MeanGreen61

[CaribbeanGreen]

MTSU didn't have to wait for a "system adjustment" or getting rid of "Andy Mac's guys" when they hired Stockstill. One year, significant improvement.

In the Sun Belt, and with our terrible year last year, it's not unrealistic to expect the same. IMHO, three wins would be a SIGNIFICANT disappointment.

[NT80]

That's why we play the games.

[ADLER]

I think it's fairly accurate although I would certainly like to have more than 3 wins. I predict there will be some offensive fireworks this season but there will also be several losses by large margins. Half the Belt teams will have distinct advantages and I think WKU is the only predictable OOC victory.

There will be a new defensive alignment, totally new offensive system, totally new coaching staff that is adjusting to the college level, massive infusion of young talent including a freshman quarterback.......folks, this is a rebuilding year. Two to four wins is very possible, anything more than that would be reason to celebrate.

I know some of you possibly question why I stated freshman quarterback. Can you build your future around somebody with the injury history of Meager, especially with the concussions? Meager should be counted on heavily in the role of experienced veteran back-up. Woody's strength is improvising outside the system and making the most of broken plays, he a good scrambler but he isn't the passer that you build around; there is a good reason that he only passsed for 92 ypg in juco and was not ever recruited as a QB by anybody other than North Texas. Woody does have excellent athletic ability and should be able to garner playing time in a different position (how about a rb/wr with passing ability?) Phillips, I don't know where he fits in; he doesn't have the speed to play this offense, and even if his mobility has improved, why build the offense around him?

2008 will be a different story and expectations should be significantly higher.

[gangrene]

That's why we play the games.

Can you please make the next 55 days go by faster???? I'm ready for some football....NOW!!! I'm more than a little sick of all the new stadium talk, how we can create traditions and how we can get the drunkards into the stadium posts. I want to get back to some real football talk and analyses. I'm very anxious to see our new offense and I expect to see early contributions from about 5 true freshmen. I want to whoop some SMU ass, I want to drive up to Hawg country and I want to spend a chilly November morning tailgating before watching us defeat Navy. I don't want to see any more 3rd down and 30 draws and I don't want to see an offense that averages 11.3 points a game and has to go 7 OTs to score 25 points and beat a winless program.

[chrisfisher]

There's no way we'll have a 3 win season again. We lost three games by a total of 12 points (Troy, Lou Tech, FAU) under the Darrell "K8MITB" Dickey offense, and could have easily been 6-6.

Edited July 9, 2007 by chrisfisher

[ADLER]

There's no way we'll have a 3 win season again. We lost three games by a total of 12 points (Troy, Lou Tech, FAU) under the Darrell "K8MITB" Dickey offense, and could have easily been 6-6.

We also beat ULL because of a couple of opportune turnovers, went through 6 overtimes with winless FIU who had plenty of chances. The only convincing victory was against SMU and that was an evenly played game until the blocked punt for the touchdown.

We could have easily been 6-6, but we also could have easily been 1-11. What games did we dominate the statistics?

Please, I am not saying that the team is bad or that last years victories weren't earned. What I am saying is that it's impracticle for fans to be disappointed by what are reasonable expectations in a rebuilding season.

I too want to go 12-0 this season but it will probably take a season or two to get all the pieces in place, by that I mean depth and experience.

[PlummMeanGreen]

** First of all, we need to forget DD Ball and the level its so called success (when there was such) kepts us mired in; you know as toward the bottom of the 119 member NCAA D1-A?

I think Todd Dodge will have to have higher aspirations for Mean Green football than Dickey or he won't get those higher aspiration job opps down the road. Lest a few have already forgotten, 4 bowl games did not produce for DD not even one higher profile job interview. A Top 25 ranked Mean Green bowl team would have had people knocking his door down.

** Look how many times in past decades UNT played the Texas Longhorns off their hooves and comparing both school's recruiting class rankings back in that day was apples and oranges. (Amazing what a good coach can do with a few good apples, eh)?

** Boise State officials have said they rarely have highly ranked recruiting classes and look what they did in a BCS Championship Series Bowl last January.

** These recruiting gurus seem to never have the ability to rank intangibles such a heart, desire and good coaching (of which that can make heart and desire go a long, long ways in NCAA D1-A football).

** Haven't many on this board sorta' been saying all along we need to be cautious of having such high expectations in T'odge's inaugural year?

** Best part of all this....we are finally headed in the right direction (no matter what our W/L record is in 2007). DD had his 1'st above .500 season at UNT in his 5'th year. I think it would be safe to say Coach Dodge's football program will get to .500 (and over) much sooner than that due to his 24/7 work ethic and schedule. Jeez-Louise, look how many HS kids he's already had at the Mean Green Village this summer for his coach's camps?

GMG!

PS: For those who don't want to discuss what this board discusses every day but want's football to start tomorrow, simply turn off your computers till 2-a-days would be my suggestion. Jeez...

Edited July 9, 2007 by PlummMeanGreen

[NT80]

Can you please make the next 55 days go by faster???? I'm ready for some football....NOW!!! I'm more than a little sick of all the new stadium talk, how we can create traditions and how we can get the drunkards into the stadium posts. I want to get back to some real football talk and analyses. I'm very anxious to see our new offense and I expect to see early contributions from about 5 true freshmen. I want to whoop some SMU ass, I want to drive up to Hawg country and I want to spend a chilly November morning tailgating before watching us defeat Navy. I don't want to see any more 3rd down and 30 draws and I don't want to see an offense that averages 11.3 points a game and has to go 7 OTs to score 25 points and beat a winless program.

I agree the season can't get here soon enough, if for no other reason to finally unwrap this packaged "new team" and see what we have! I think fans will be in for a surprise by adjustments being made in-game and in-season. I don't expect to beat OU or Arkansas but we will be competative faster than sports magazine writers think, even with Dickey's former players....they are now Dodge's players! When does practice start anyway??

[GrandGreen]

I would not discount DCTF prediction, who knows the situation better. Every other prognosticator I have seen either rates NT last or next to last in the conference. Nothing new. They look at a high school coach putting in a spread offense with no proven QB and few seasoned receivers. What I don't get is that the entire defense is back and DD's awful offense is being replaced. Even DD won two Belt games last year with a team with lame duck coaching and little enthusiasm. The defense should be better with a lot of experience returning and the offense can't be worse than it was last year. I don't expect the media to rate NT high but middle of the pack seems more in line with the returning team.

[Charlie NT 73]

To all Mean Green fans- Do not beleive all the stories in these "national"

football mag rags! Looks like to me, the these mag rags just copy each other

with the same stories. These mag writers do not know Coach Dodge, and

the do not know the players! The main point is, these writers do not know

what to think about North Texas, so, they are basing all of their predictions

upon the last 2 years of Dickey ball. Forget all the past, because this team

has been reborn!

I beleive this team will develop much faster than what many beleive, and

will win more games than you think! Just have the faith! Beleive in the

Mean Green, Beleive in Coach Dodge, and Beleive in the Players!

[DeepGreen]

I believe!

[Arkstfan]

The Sun Belt is a crap shoot in any given year.

The 2003 UNT squad was an impressive 4-0 on the road in the Sun Belt and the largest margin of victory on the road was 10 points. An injury, the wrong guy getting the stomach flu, a pass dropped by a d-back is caught instead and it could have fallen apart that easily.

In 2005, ASU gave up one sustained drive to ULM, a two-minute drill comeback, that was only relevant because of an earlier pick by ULM setting up a TD. Hold off ULM and we take the league outright. Likewise ULL salts away a 15 point lead over ASU at the start of the 4th quarter that season and ULL could have won the conference.

In 2006, Troy recovers an onside kick on the way to scoring twice in under 2:30 to beat MTSU sending Troy to the New Orleans Bowl.

Weird things change the fate of a season.

In 2005 ASU's wildly inconsistent placekicker hit walk-off game-winners in consecutive games and hit three field goals in a 9-3 win over Troy. Last year ULM misses a chance to tie Kansas thanks to a missed PAT and then falls short on a 2 point conversion that could have sent the Kentucky game to overtime. FIU missed a PAT that would have tied MTSU, a PAT against USF AND fumbled to set-up a short drive that gave USF a one point win, FIU threw a pick on a pass that could have beaten Maryland, and had a PAT blocked that helped lead to the 7 OT game with UNT.

While the conference is better than it was in 2001 and has shown continual progress, depth is a major issue, couple that with closely matched teams and you can get some pretty wild results.

[SCREAMING EAGLE-66]

That's why we play the games.

--When I was a HS junior, my high school (Brownwood, who had won only one district championship in the previous 30 years) was predicted to finish 5th in a 6 team district. We had a new coach that year, Gordan Wood, and WON the State Championship in what is now AAAA with only a close loss to AAAAA Temple. That is bit extreme (but true). Never underestimate what a new coach can do, especially one that that is accustomed to winning and hates to lose. Max Emfinger was on that team as a first year starter at running back.

--I don't expect that kind of results but I don't expect us to do as poorly as most are predicting us to do.

--You just have to believe that almost anything is possible and never give up, perhaps the other team will get too overconfident and mess up even if they are the better team. Don't believe for a minute that Southlake Carroll (or Brownwood) had the best team on the field in all those wins --- it was determination, self confidence, never giving up, and good coaching that got many of those wins.

Edited July 9, 2007 by SCREAMING EAGLE-66

[PlummMeanGreen]

The Brazos has flooded again.

Edited July 9, 2007 by PlummMeanGreen

[PlummMeanGreen]

To all Mean Green fans- Do not beleive all the stories in these "national"

football mag rags! Looks like to me, the these mag rags just copy each other

with the same stories. These mag writers do not know Coach Dodge, and

the do not know the players! The main point is, these writers do not know

what to think about North Texas, so, they are basing all of their predictions

upon the last 2 years of Dickey ball. Forget all the past, because this team

has been reborn!

I beleive this team will develop much faster than what many beleive, and

will win more games than you think! Just have the faith! Beleive in the

Mean Green, Beleive in Coach Dodge, and Beleive in the Players!

I think guarded optimism is merely many of our elect not wanting to be disappointed this Fall in those we do believe in to navigate this boat toward waters Mean Green football has not sailed in a long, long time.

UNT has its man with Todd Dodge, one who (in fact) will probably play a bigger role than many might expect in this program gaining the necessary momentum for UNT to build our new footall palace at the magnificent Mean Green Village; and all this happening with T'odge because of his "can do" public relation's abilities we have not seen in Denton in quite awhile.

Whatever happens in 2007 I feel most will see as a solid building block for seasons to come of which more blocks will be stacked higher & higher from here on out.

For those who choose to worry themselves into a tether that someone may steal our Dodge sooner than later, don't waste all the mental energy yet concentrate on the things we do have control. If and when such a time would come, I feel UNT officials will not let Todd Dodge slip into the hands of another non-BCS school too easily--even the 2 other non-BCS schools in the North Texas Metroplex, FWIW.

We do have those with NT ties with monies who could probably be convinced to help supplement his salary very nicely, you know? In other words, there are some things (CUSA conference aspirations) that are also out of our hands, but our UNT leaders will have a say about not losing any HFC we have over money--even bigger money than most of us can ever imagine being paid out to a Mean Green head football coach. We are swimming with the (D1-A) sharks as it is already, folks. Probably time we start acting like it before we become shark food.

Edited July 9, 2007 by PlummMeanGreen

[greenminer]

The Brazos has flooded again.

I just wanted to capture this post. It's been a while since I finished reading something Plumm wrote.

[untStein]

That's why we play the games.

Exactly. This season needs to hurry up and get here.

[the real grad88]

I agree that we are young in some areas. I agree that there will be a learning curve. No one is going to be upset if we don't have a banner year. However, I would not be surpised at all if we were to make a run for the Belt championship. The Spread offense is not a pure passer's/ Dan Marino offense. It is a mobile/run and sling offense. It is mainly a short yardage passing offense. It does not require a veteran QB! I don't think the learning curver will be as great as some think. I also look for this offense to really open up some major running paths for our speedster in the backfield. He could really light it up this year as well. The point is: I won't be disappointed either way, but I am really excited about the possibility of what I have a feeling is going to happen!