Play In For The Play Sunday

Censored by Laurie · March 6, 2009

9. Florida International vs. 1. Western Kentucky - 2 games - WKU-79, FIU-81 @ FIU; FIU-66, WKU-79 @ WKU

FIU - Just like UNT played an FAU team that was clearly better than it's 6-25 record indicated...so too is Florida International a much more dangerous team than 13-19, 7-11 in SBC play would lead one to believe. Like it's conference state-mate...FIU has been decimated all season by injuries and eligibility issues that has left coach Sergio Rouco scrambling just to court a team some nights. That seems to be behind the Golden Panthers now, however, and at just the right time to make some noise in the conference tournament. Freddy Aspirilla (6'10" 280 Fr.; 14.0ppg, 9.4rpg), Russell Hicks (7'0" 270 Sr.; 8.4ppg, 5.4rpg) and Nikola Gacesa (6'9" 235 Jr.; 10.1ppg, 4.7rpg, 45% 3Pt) give the Panthers an impossing frontline. Alex Galindo (6'7" 220 Sr.; 15.0ppg, 4.9) is a former all-conference selection who put up all conferecne numbers in limited action this season...the inexperienced, underclassman backcourt of Michael Dominquez (6'3" 185 Fr.; 10.0ppg, 3.8rpg, 2.4apg) and Tremayne Russell (6'0" 180 Soph.; 8.0ppg, 2.2rpg) has developed through some growing pains, but has been joined for the past 12 games by FSU transfer, and expected starter at the beginning of the season, Josue Soto (6'0" 170 Soph.; 11.0ppg, 2.4rpg, 3.3apg), giving Rouco a bevy of talented backcourt options.

WKU - A rebuilding year, with a new coach and arguably the biggest graduation in the conference...apparantly that equals another regular season conferecne championship. It has been a bit of a roller coaster for Ken McDonald and the Toppers with highs (upset over Louisville) and lows (32 point loss to Evanston) coming less than two weeks apart...but through the transition WKU has once again emerged as the class of the Belt. Point guard, and now SBC Player of the Year Orlando Mendez-Valdez (6'1" 185 Sr.; 14.2ppg, 3.8apg, 42% 3PT) leads a balanced and talented starting 5. A.J. Slaughter (6'3" 185 Jr.; 15.7ppg, 3.0rpg, 3.7apg) is the go-to scorer, and who will most likely have the ball in his hand in crunch time. Steffphon Pettigrew (6'5" 225 Soph.; 13.0ppg, 5.0rpg), Sergio Kerusch (6'5" 210 Soph.; 11.0ppg, 7.4rpg) and Jeremy Evans (6'9" 190 Jr.; 8.8ppg, 6.0rpg, 54 blocks) comprise an under-sized, but very aggressive frontcourt. Anthony Sally (6'2" 185 Jr.; 4.1ppg, 2.8rpg, 2.7) and D.J. Magley (6'10" 280 Soph.; 2.4ppg, 2.2rpg) headline a short bench.

Analysis - Size and depth. If FIU wants to kick the SBC tourney off with an upset therein lies their greatest upperhand. The myriad of injuries that have beset FIU this season have given them 10-11 players that Sergio Rouco can trust in to play key minutes, while WKU has only 6 players who average more than 12 minutes per night. Add to that the potential of a 6'10" on 6'5" match-up...and FIU has two key advantages. With that said...FIU has no track record of success, while the bulk of this WKU roster has been to a Sweet 16..experience and knowing how to win count for a lot come March.

Prediction - WKU 77 FIU 74

6. South Alabama vs. 3. Troy - 2 games - Troy-94, USA-70 @ USA; USA-58, Troy-63

USA - The year after the first at-large bid for an SBC school in enough years to impress you without my having to look it up...South Alabama has gone through a difficult transition season...USA is 2-6 this season against the top 5 teams in conference, including 2 losses to their quarter-final opponent. Guard Dominic Tilford (5'10" 170 Sr.; 16.3ppg, 2.9rpg, 3.1apg) will take the bulk of the Jaguar shots...good or bad...fortunantly for coach Ronnie Arrow, whenever Tilford jacks up questionable shots he does have the two leading rebounders in conference in Brandon Davis (6'6" 205 Sr.; 12.7ppg, 7.2rpg) and DeAndre Coleman (6'7" 235 Sr.; 11.0ppg, 8.3rpg), as well as center Ronald Douglass (6.2ppg, 4.2rpg, 59 blocks) to clean up his misses. Big things were expected from LaShun Watson (6'5" 205 Jr.; 7.0ppg, 4.4rpg, 2.1apg), and while he has under-delivered, he does provide a nice scoring threat from the wing. Freshman C.J. Garner (5-10 160 Fr.; 5.3ppg, 2.5rpg, 1.5apg) and transfer Bryan Sherrer (6'0" 195 Jr.; 5.0ppg, 1.5apg) provide steady bus-drivers at the point guard position.

Troy - On January 10th things looked pretty typical for the Trojans following a loss to ULL that left them at 1-3 in conference. 4 days later they would walk into Mobile and beat up on USA by 24, the start a 10 game winning streak. The biggest reason for the turn-around has been the unexpected and rapid improvement in Brandon Hazzard (6'2" 195 Jr.; 15.9ppg, 45% 3PT). Hazzard has upped his scoring average almost 10 points per game this season over last, reached 20 points 9 times...30 twice, including a season-high 35 in a win over Western Kentucky. Newcomer of the Year Richard Delk (6'4" 180 Jr.; 13.9ppg, 4.7rpg, 2.6apg) is a very talented second scoring option, while point guard Michael Vogler (6'2" 170 Jr.; 10.2ppg, 5.8 apg, 57 steals) focuses on filling up the other columns on the box score such as assists and steals, catagories Vogler led the SBC in this season. Tom Jervis (7'0" 230 Sr.; 6.8ppg, 6.6rpg) provides some size and rebounding to this guard-centric line-up...while wings Mario Telfair (6'6" 195 Sr.; 6.7ppg, 3.8rpg), Kenny Ware (6'5" 170 Sr.; 5.7ppg, 3.9), Antywan Jones (6'6" 190 Jr.; 4.5ppg, 2.8rpg) and Travis Lee (5'11" 175 Jr.; 5.6ppg, 40% 3PT) give coach Don Maestri athletic and versitlle role-players to compliment his stars.

Analysis - Troy can shoot the three...and they're not shy...but it has been learning how to score, and eventually win without double-digit three point makes has been the biggest key to the Trojan's surprise success. USA has a decided advantage upfront...and if they look to pull off the upset then Davis and Coleman need to set up Tilford's offense from the inside out. It is difficult to beat a team three times in one season, but his Troy team seems to be playing with the confidence that tells mantras like that to go f themselves.

Prediction - Troy - 88, USA – 79

7. Denver vs. 2. Arkansas Little-Rock – 1 game – UD-57, UALR-66 @ UALR

UD – Joe Scott continues the steady process of building a very solid program in Denver around his disciplined Princeton offense…the Pioneers picked up their first road win in nearly three seasons, and the scary thing is, everyone from this team is back next season, most for at least two years. Nate Rohnert (6’5” 215 Jr.; 15.4ppg, 5.4rpg, 4.6) is the conference’s most versatile playmaker and is the focal point of Scott’s offense. Rohnert has scored in double figures in 16 consecutive games. Rob Lewis (6’7” 215 Soph.; 12.4ppg, 5.5rpg, 2.2apg) is a developing post with a solid inside-outside game. Freshman Brian Stafford (6’2” 185 Fr.; 11..8ppg, 44% 3PT) has quickly developed as the Pioneers’ best three point option, and joined with steady point Kyle Lewis (5’11” 160 Soph.; 5.1ppg, 1.5apg) form a solid backcourt. Andrew Hooper (6’9” 210 Fr.; 9.5ppg, 2.7rpg, 48% 3PT) and Justin Coughlin (6’9” 185 Fr.; 2.9ppg, 1.5rpg) are nightmare match-ups for most posts as they are very capable 3 point shooters. Guards Travis Hallam (6’5” 190 Fr.; 2.2ppg, 1.4rpg) and Sabatino Chen (6’2” 185 Fr.; 2.2ppg, 2.0rpg) provide solid minutes in reserve.

UALR – Ugly. There is nothing pretty…or for that matter even entertaining about watching the Trojans play basketball…but it gets them Ws. All conference forward Shane Edwards (6’7” 190 Sr.; 11.7, 5.3rpg) leads the way…Edwards is an long wing playing out of position at the 4/5, but he takes advantage of his athleticism and occasional three point rang to create mis-matches. Edwards is joined up front by defensive specialist John Fowler (6’4” 195 Sr.; 10.7ppg, 5.5rpg, 1.9apg), who is also a very good offensive rebounder (2.2orpg) for his size. Brandon Patterson (6’6” 195 Sr.; 6.2ppg, 4.0rpg, 2.8apg) is a glue guy who can play four different positions for Steve Shields, though since the dismissal of point guard Steven Moore, Patterson has taken on more of a playmakers role. Sniper Matt Mouzy (6’0” 170 Soph.; 10.2ppg, 40% 3PT) has a lightning quick release and has had 14 games this season where he has knocked down at least three 3 pointers. Big man Mike Smith (6’7” 295 Jr.; 6.8ppg, 4.9rpg) has been in and out of the Trojan line up fighting with injury and weight issues, but he can at times be a dominating low post presence.

Analysis – Between Denver’s patient offense and match-up zone and UALR’s aggressive defense this game could finish in the 30s. Denver has made some huge strides in their second season under Joe Scott, but they are incredibly young, and despite the one win at Arkansas State they really have not proven an ability to win outside of Magnes Arena. The Trojans are also the more experienced team, returning most of the pieces that pushed Western Kentucky last season in the conference semi-finals…and that should be enough to carry them past the Pioneers.

Prediction – UALR – 56, Denver – 49

5. Middle Tennessee vs. 4. North Texas – 2 games – MTSU-89, UNT-80 (OT) @ UNT, UNT-89, MTSU-78 @ MTSU

MTSU – Sucks.

UNT – Rules

Analysis – Huge one game stretch.

Prediction – 100-0…or fire JJ!

Green P1 · March 6, 2009

Give me USA over Troy.

greenminer · March 6, 2009

This is the shit I come here for!

You're such a pimp.

greenminer · March 6, 2009

Why would Galindo get limited minutes?

I remember UTEP wanted to keep Rouco years ago, but he took the FIU job and Galindo w/him. I’m not so sure Galindo would have stayed after Barbee came in, anyways.

Personally, I think WKU’s roster has the best names. Slaughter? Pettigrew? Mendez-Valdez (flashy foreigner?). I can’t really say why, just MHO. Phonetically awesome.

Who would you prefer to face in the final, Troy or UALR?

Also, I would love to see Denver pull the upset.

Censored by Laurie · March 6, 2009

Why would Galindo get limited minutes?
I remember UTEP wanted to keep Rouco years ago, but he took the FIU job and Galindo w/him. I’m not so sure Galindo would have stayed after Barbee came in, anyways.
Personally, I think WKU’s roster has the best names. Slaughter? Pettigrew? Mendez-Valdez (flashy foreigner?). I can’t really say why, just MHO. Phonetically awesome.
Who would you prefer to face in the final, Troy or UALR?
Also, I would love to see Denver pull the upset.

Galindo will get plenty of minutes...I just meant that he has missed a bunch of time this season with injuries...he played in just 17 games this season.

Kinda agree with you on the WKU names...my fave is Sergio Kerusch...though I do think Pettigrew's first name, Steffphon, has way too much going on there.

Troy or UALR...thats a tough call...I still think give me UALR b/c IF we can dictate the pace we can out gun them no problem...but if we get into a shooting match with Troy our odds decrease.