Kiev Burning

[Cerebus]

By the way, Im currently growing the most awesome mullet. The downside is its days are numbered as the Cheif won't allow it to touch the collar.

We're going to need you to change your avatar to be a picture of you in your Mustang with that mullet... and if you can roll a Marlboro red box into your sleeve, well then Harry might make you an Admin on the spot.

[FirefightnRick]

We're going to need you to change your avatar to be a picture of you in your Mustang with that mullet... and if you can roll a Marlboro red box into your sleeve, well then Harry might make you an Admin on the spot.

This is the best I can do for now.

Rick

[yyz28]

If you read the thread you would know why

Oh wait, forgot to mock: Everyone knows the Z28 in inferior to any decent pony car.

Nice mock.

...alright, so I went back and spent the better part of the last hour reading the bulk of this thread. ...and I'm brought back around to the following conclusions -

1. This thread isn't meant for political dick-fighting, which I pointed out has no bearing on it, and that I'm tired of the moral equivalency and "he did it so it is ok". Seems like we're pretty well in line there...

2. We're in a weak position to do anything about this, and I haven't seen you point out otherwise.

3. Russia in control of the Ukraine is bad for the US and our national security and political interests. ...again, I see nowhere where you disagree.

...so other than the fact that I voiced these opinions before I spent an hour reading that we agree and that there are some in here who want to turn this political, why are we mocking?

...pft on the Z28 comment.

...yikes on the pic of Rick. ...and his mullet.

[Cerebus]

I know a lot of people are calling for a heavier handed response. To be fair, I think Obama has played this about right so far. He is talking tough about sanctions, but not talking tough on the military end. However, that doesn't mean there hasn't been major assets moved to the region. Putin knows what that means, and it doesn't paint him into a corner in public. Putin will be very sensitive to that because he is in effect a strong man. He rules because Russians think he is powerful, even he loses that luster... things could go bad for him.

So lets look at the assets now withing striking distance of the Black Sea. First, the big boy (bouy?):

USS George H.W. Bush

CVN 77 All you need to know is that its a Nimitz Class Super Carrier. Each one of them is more or less the 12th largest air force in the world by itself. Each one of them is the best sea platform for projecting air/sea power in the world. It includes:

Fixed:

12 x F/A-18E

12 x F/A-18F

20x F/A-18CN

4 x EA-6B

4 x E-2C

12 x MH-602

Rotary

12 x MH-60S

12 x MH-60R

Destroyer Squadron 22

DDG USS Cole, Mahan, McFaul, Mason, Nitze, (Truxton?) (Guided Missile Destroyers )

FFG USS Elrod (Escort Destroyer)

Ticonderoga Class Missile Cruisers

USS Leyte gulf

USS Philippine Seam

USS Anzio

The Carrier Strike Group above is in/near Greece, well within operational range.

Assets in Black Sea:

USS Mount Whitney

LCC The most advanced Command, Control, Communications, Computer and Intelligence (C4I) in the world.

USS Donald Cook

DDG 75, guided missile destroyer, reports sighted entering the black sea on 3/5 (yesterday)

USS Truxton

DDG 103, guided missile destroyer, part of DS22 but reported entering the Black Sea on 3/5

USS Taylor

FFG 50... In Samsun Tukey, but grounded, immovable at the moment. /facepalm

[Cerebus]

...so other than the fact that I voiced these opinions before I spent an hour reading that we agree and that there are some in here who want to turn this political, why are we mocking?

Actually I agreed with the heart of what you said, but you have been a board moderator before, you understand what dangerous flame war bait "I DIDN'T READ ANYTHING AND I REFUSE TO BE EDUCATED BUT BEND TO MY SIDE OF THE ARGUMENT" type posts are.

This is already a pretty touchy subject, so I am just trying to keep the responses informed and self muted.

I also like Z28s just fine but I figured that would make you made enough to read the entire post so you could tell me what a colossal jackass I am. Feel free to do so still.

[yyz28]

I don't think you're a jack ass at all. I think your assessment of what is going on is right on, and i also happen to agree that Obama is doing about all he can here. This isn't the place to expand on why he can't do more. just suffice it to say, there is only so much he can do based on how we're seen in the world at present. This isn't the time to dissect why.

[UNT90]

I know a lot of people are calling for a heavier handed response. To be fair, I think Obama has played this about right so far. He is talking tough about sanctions, but not talking tough on the military end. However, that doesn't mean there hasn't been major assets moved to the region. Putin knows what that means, and it doesn't paint him into a corner in public. Putin will be very sensitive to that because he is in effect a strong man. He rules because Russians think he is powerful, even he loses that luster... things could go bad for him.

So lets look at the assets now withing striking distance of the Black Sea. First, the big boy (bouy?):

USS George H.W. Bush

CVN 77 All you need to know is that its a Nimitz Class Super Carrier. Each one of them is more or less the 12th largest air force in the world by itself. Each one of them is the best sea platform for projecting air/sea power in the world. It includes:

Fixed:

12 x F/A-18E

12 x F/A-18F

20x F/A-18CN

4 x EA-6B

4 x E-2C

12 x MH-602

Rotary

12 x MH-60S

12 x MH-60R

Destroyer Squadron 22

DDG USS Cole, Mahan, McFaul, Mason, Nitze, (Truxton?) (Guided Missile Destroyers )

FFG USS Elrod (Escort Destroyer)

Ticonderoga Class Missile Cruisers

USS Leyte gulf

USS Philippine Seam

USS Anzio

The Carrier Strike Group above is in/near Greece, well within operational range.

Assets in Black Sea:

USS Mount Whitney

LCC The most advanced Command, Control, Communications, Computer and Intelligence (C4I) in the world.

USS Donald Cook

DDG 75, guided missile destroyer, reports sighted entering the black sea on 3/5 (yesterday)

USS Truxton

DDG 103, guided missile destroyer, part of DS22 but reported entering the Black Sea on 3/5

USS Taylor

FFG 50... In Samsun Tukey, but grounded, immovable at the moment. /facepalm

This is exactly the response needed. I'm glad and somewhat surprised Pres. Obama has the stones to act.

Make it very very uncomfortable for Putin and the Russian people.

Edited March 6, 2014 by UNT90

[Cerebus]

Make it very very uncomfortable for Putin and the Russian people.

No, make it uncomfortable for Putin behind closed doors. Let him save face. Otherwise he won't back down, he can't, autocrats who back down get hung.

Some Hinds buzzing around Sevastopol today:

Another:

[Cerebus]

There were reports a few days ago that Yanukovych, the impeached president, had died. I never posted that because before I could the Russians had a media blitz saying it was not true.

However, over time, it seemed that Yanukovych should have... I don't know... shown up somewhere and said this himself. He was last sighted in a press conference on the 28th of last month. So rumors have been swirling.

Today a Russian newspaper, the Moskovsky Komsomolets has reported that Yanukovych had a heart attack, and is a Moscow hospital, and may in fact be in the the morgue of said hospital.

Polish language link

[UNT90]

Fine if you want to go that way, but it's going to be very hard to hide the US forces in the area.

Hell, I'm sure this same conversation is transpiring on a Russian chat forum somewhere.

It's not the 50s. You can't hide military movements like you could back then. I guess no public statement may help a tad, but everyone will know US forces are in the area, including the Russian population.

Edited March 6, 2014 by UNT90

[Cerebus]

Fine if you want to go that way, but it's going to be very hard to hide the US forces on the area.

The only reason I knew about it was because I pay for some strat intel services.

How would you have heard about it if I didn't do that? No one is publicizing this, it is in no ones interests to make Putin look weak.

Anyone in this thread knows 20x more than the average American, and the avg American probably knows 20x more than the avg Russian. They are being inundated with propaganda.

Best case scenario IMHO is that Putin backs down, but can deny that military pressure was any part of it. We'll have to sign some sort of agreements that let him save face, and that he can sell as a victory.

[UNT90]

http://osnetdaily.com/2014/03/breaking-us-sixth-fleet-moves-toward-crimea-nato-troops-land-in-western-ukraine/

http://m.washingtonpost.com/world/us-talks-to-russia-but-moves-more-warplanes-to-region/2014/03/05/97dc7e4c-a4af-11e3-b865-38b254d92063_story.html

The first is obviously a propaganda piece by Russian authorities, but it's out there. And if Putin is using the false threat of US military intervention, how is he possibly going to back away from it?

[Cerebus]

And if Putin is using the false threat of US military intervention, how is he possibly going to back away from it?

Putin: Do you see any Americans in the Ukraine now? Do you see them marching down the street of Moscow? No! Because we have bravely scared them!

Avg Russian: Sits there in his track suit, suddenly realizes this is the part where he needs to cheer, cheers wildly, wonders how long he has to do this before he can go drink some Vodka.

Now this fantasy is impossible if a carrier air wing is actually patrolling the Black Sea and god forbid running missions against assets.

[UNT90]

Putin: Do you see any Americans in the Ukraine now? Do you see them marching down the street of Moscow? No! Because we have bravely scared them!

Avg Russian: Sits there in his track suit, suddenly realizes this is the part where he needs to cheer, cheers wildly, wonders how long he has to do this before he can go drink some Vodka.

Now this fantasy is impossible if a carrier air wing is actually patrolling the Black Sea and god forbid running missions against assets.

You're right, if the average Russian never searches the Internet to read a foreign paper.

MAYBE the lower class acts this way. The middle and upper class in Russia doesn't. Not to mention educated Russians are well aware of the Cold War propaganda issued by their own government.

Don't you think they would be just a bit skeptical?

[Cerebus]

You're right, if the average Russian never searches the Internet to read a foreign paper.

The average Russian is like the average American. They have already made up their mind on a general worldview, and they look for news sources that spoon feed them information that backs that up. There is a reason conservatives and liberals in general listen to certain different news sources, those are the ones that stroke their worldview.

The majority of Russians like Putin, feel they were a great country once and deserve to be again, and haven't let go of the cold war anymore than you have. They will believe anything that backs up that world view as long as its not completely overridden by glaring facts, like Putin trying to claim they "won" in Ukraine but there are American jets patrolling Ukrainian airspace. No American jets? Putin got to sign some compact or agreement that makes Russians feel food? Win.

Frankly, that is what we are working towards.

[UNT90]

Like I have???

When the Russian leader is invading countries that were former members of the USSR, you better stand up to him, or you WILL be facing a NEW Cold War.

I have a feeling that if Russian troops were doing joint exercises with the Mexican Army, a very high percentage of Americans would be stop watching The Housewives of New York and True Detective to find out exactly what was going on. It's human nature.only concerned with what immediately affects you.

I also think 66 would be on here telling us it's none of our business what Russia does in Mexico. ;-). Couldn't resist.

Edited March 7, 2014 by UNT90

[Cerebus]

I have a feeling that if Russian troops were doing joint exercises with the Mexican Army, a very high percentage of Americans would be stop watching The Housewives of New York and True Detective to find out exactly what was going on.

Of course they would. Which is exactly why we aren't sending boots into the Ukraine, and exactly why the George H.W. Bush in "in Greece", not "within operational range of the Ukraine."

I have no idea how you are missing what I am saying. Yes, we want to show force, TO PUTIN but not to THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE. Give him the ability to stand down. Putin KNOWS that super carrier is within operational range, but because the west isn't trumpeting it, that allows him to not have to address it. You should notice the Russian press, under his control, has not said a word about it.

Of course, you will hear all about this on the Rachel Maddow show, which I am sure you never miss.

[Cerebus]

So what, exactly could make Putin call back the troops? I mean, what exactly is he after? People have talked about the Black Sea Fleet port, the pipelines that run through the Ukraine and the wheat it exports. But none of that was under any real threat.

Well, what about that fact that Russia has a near monopoly on natural gas production in Europe, the Ukraine is dependent on it, and GAZPROM (run by Putin) makes billions a year selling it to Western Europe. I guess something like Exxon and Chevron investing billions to develop natural gas fields in western Ukraine would be a huge threat to that.

Ukraine announced natural gas deals with Chevron Corp and Exxon Mobil Corp in a push to cut costs by two-thirds and reduce its dependence on Russia.

Ukraine, dependent on expensive Russian gas imports for more than 60 percent of its needs, is accelerating efforts to diversify supply.

“The cost of gas production will be at least three times lower than what Ukraine is paying for the imports,” Stavytskyi told journalists during the press briefing.

Ukraine has been trying to renegotiate a gas contract with Russia since 2010, saying it pays the highest prices in Europe.

Well now that would be a huge threat to Putin. He no longer has a pain point to hold against Ukraine, and if the Ukraine could market it's own gas to Europe it would put a huge dent into GAZPROM profits, which Putin uses like a cash box to buy support at home.

Well it's too bad that deal just got shelved: Exxon Mobil puts Ukraine gas prospect on hold

Exxon Mobil Corp. has put its Ukraine offshore natural gas prospect on hold because of the political situation there, company officials told analysts Wednesday.

But Exxon is pressing ahead with large-scale investments in Russia, as well as a Black Sea oil project just east of Crimea, they said.

And there you go, Geopolitics 101.

Edited March 7, 2014 by Cerebus

[Cerebus]

USS Truxton has for sure crossed the Bosphorus, heading to "Bulgaria" for "previously planned training exercises."

[UNT90]

Of course they would. Which is exactly why we aren't sending boots into the Ukraine, and exactly why the George H.W. Bush in "in Greece", not "within operational range of the Ukraine."

I have no idea how you are missing what I am saying. Yes, we want to show force, TO PUTIN but not to THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE. Give him the ability to stand down. Putin KNOWS that super carrier is within operational range, but because the west isn't trumpeting it, that allows him to not have to address it. You should notice the Russian press, under his control, has not said a word about it.

Of course, you will hear all about this on the Rachel Maddow show, which I am sure you never miss.

We don't disagree, I'm just saying that keeping troop movements hush hush isn't as easy as it used to be. I guess it is good that both Putin and Obama have very similar control over their respective nations' media.

As for Rachel Maddow, I dont even know who that is (best Deion Sanders voice).

Edited March 7, 2014 by UNT90

[UNT Five&Dime]

So everything is cool now?

[Cerebus]

So everything is cool now?

Totes. Putin called up the west and told them "I was so joking, man, you should have seen your faces" and then he did his best Nature Boy Ric Flair impression for everyone. The media loved it!

I was on spring break, I guess I need to do some posting... SINCE NO ONE ELSE DID... no... it's FINE... *rolls eyes*

[Cerebus]

Deserted #Crimea airport. Flights banned from rest of #Ukraine. Allow only flights from #Moscow, ahead of vote. #cbc pic.twitter.com/597ujt7bj2

— Susan Ormiston (@OrmistonOnline)

March 11, 2014

[Cerebus]

Crimea relies on mainland Ukraine for water, electricity, gas

As Russia’s stranglehold on Crimea tightens, mainland Ukraine still has several levers of influence to use.

...where up to 30,000 armed Russian forces maintain control over the peninsula, foresee Crimea breaking further away from Ukraine.

Crimea relies on the rest of Ukraine for 80-85 percent of the water that it consumes, 82 percent of electricity and 35 percent of gas, according to Mykhailo Honchar, a leading energy analyst at Kyiv-based think tank Strategy XXI. Access to these vital resources will loom prominently amid diplomatic discussions this week ahead of the so-called referendum.

[Cerebus]

#Putin approval rating at 68% (VTSIOM), highest level since he began 3rd term as president in May 2012.

— Douglas Herbert (@dougf24)

March 11, 2014