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Number 53

Greenrex

By Greenrex
in Mean Green Football

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laxtonto Enthusiast

laxtonto

Posted
Posted (edited)

Instead of posting the exact numbers this week, I figured it would be more interesting to show you guys the week to week changes per ranking.. I will post pictures after they include the updated AH rankings

The good news is that even though we took it in the teeth with Sagrin and Colley, we made huge strides in the Massey and Billingsley Indices. This is important because the BCS is a system that attempts to correct for single positive and negative extreme outliers. The Massey and Billingsley Indices are the two that we had the highest overall scores in. Bring both of those values close to the rest of the score rankings make it a lot safer not to be penalized on an extreme ranking.

A lot of this will now depend on how the computer feel about UAB and NC State. It sucks to say it, but things are not looking well because of Tulsa. If they keep losing we are in the world of hurt. By ECU playing them 2 weeks before us, they had 2 less losses and therefore technially will provide a better SOS component. Same thing for them playing USM before we did.. Just starting to look like our harder confrere schedule will be surpassed by when we played teams.

One thing to keep an eye out for is what happens Thursday Wed. Night with NIU and Ball State. Regardless the outcome that will help drive Ball States Computer numbers. The problem is that if they lose and lose their votes they will drop to around 44.

Edited by laxtonto
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laxtonto Enthusiast

laxtonto

Posted
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We are officially 55

11-10-20138-38-06PM_zps29b1c628.png

I could paste the individual raw numbers first, but this probably a bit more informative. We lost 2.5 "points" overall this week and that dropped us 6 spots. ECU gained 1 "point" and they didn't move. What is really interesting is that UTEP trashed our Sagrin, Colley, AH and Wolfe scores, but Tulsa did not hurt any of theirs except for A-H.

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greenit Newbie

greenit

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I thought the numbers continue to adjust throughout the season based on your previous opponents. For example, just because ECU played USM earlier in the year, the value of their win against USM continues to go down as USM continues to lose. I would think we both earned the same amount of value for our wins (possibly even more since we beat them on the road).

However, these are just assumptions, I don't have detailed understanding of the inner workings of the rating systems.

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laxtonto Enthusiast

laxtonto

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11-10-20139-02-07PM_zps6810d511.png

1st off, no not all rankings adjust. Some do some don't. And unfortunately for us that the ones that don't help ECU way more than the ones that do help us.

2nd off, forgive the formatting but negative numbers are bad. Just keep that in mind. That means that our ranking was a better last week than this week. The biggest thing is that we actually lost 16 total points on ECU this week. That might now seem a lot, but it means that we actually have much more variance in our numbers than ECU. This is good if Ball St, UGA and Ohio keep doing well. The problem is that UGA is crippled and a underrated Buffalo team killed Ohio last week. Best case would be to have both UGS beat Auburn and BSU beat NIU this week.

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UNTcrazy727 Grand Master

UNTcrazy727

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11-10-20139-02-07PM_zps6810d511.png

1st off, no not all rankings adjust. Some do some don't. And unfortunately for us that the ones that don't help ECU way more than the ones that do help us.

2nd off, forgive the formatting but negative numbers are bad. Just keep that in mind. That means that our ranking was a better last week than this week. The biggest thing is that we actually lost 16 total points on ECU this week. That might now seem a lot, but it means that we actually have much more variance in our numbers than ECU. This is good if Ball St, UGA and Ohio keep doing well. The problem is that UGA is crippled and a underrated Buffalo team killed Ohio last week. Best case would be to have both UGS beat Auburn and BSU beat NIU this week.

If we win out and ECU loses one more game we'll host the C-USA Championship. It's really that simple.
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laxtonto Enthusiast

laxtonto

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If we win out and ECU loses one more game we'll host the C-USA Championship. It's really that simple.

Its not that simple... If Marshal beats ECU and then therefore one of the east coast voters give them 1 point in either polls, most likely they would jump us. That is the entire issue with all of this. Inversely if we win out and so does ECU and one of the DFW writers/voters decide to go ahead and put us #25 we would jump to around 33 or so...

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