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U N T / U L M Game Preview & Prediction

MeanGreen61

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MeanGreen61 Newbie

MeanGreen61

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The Sports Network

DATE & TIME: Saturday, October 13th, 7:00 p.m. (et)

FACTS & STATS: Site: Fouts Field (30,500) -- Denton, Texas. Television: None. Home Record: ULM 1-1, UNT 0-1. Away Record: ULM 0-3, UNT 0-4. Neutral Record: ULM 0-0, UNT 0-0. Conference Record: ULM 1-1, UNT 0-2. Series Record: UL-Monroe leads, 12-11.

GAME NOTES: Still in search of their first victory of the season the Mean Green of North Texas will host the UL-Monroe Warhawks this Saturday at Fouts Field in a Sun Belt Conference tilt. The Warhawks finally found the win column this past weekend, as ULM collected a solid, 30-13 victory over Arkansas State. It was the first win of the 2007 campaign for the Warhawks, who opened the year with four straight setbacks. Fortunately for ULM, the team will have the luxury of hosting three of its next four games. As for the Mean Green, they have lost seven consecutive games dating back to last season. Five of those losses have come during this season, and the most recent setback was a 38-29 loss to UL-Lafayette. The Mean Green have not had much success at home, posting a terrible 2-9 ledger at Fouts Field since the beginning of the 2005-06 season. It does not get any easier for the Mean Green, as they will have to square off against the Troy Trojans next week. Last season the Warhawks posted a convincing, 23-3 victory over North Texas, and now have a slim, 12-11 edge over the Mean Green in the all-time series.

The Warhawks pounded Arkansas State this past weekend, rushing for a whopping 235 yards on 52 carries. Overall for ULM the team finished with 430 yards and that led to the 17-point win. The success on the ground is not surprising, considering the Warhawks are currently producing an outstanding, 224.4 ypg via the run. Calvin Dawson has clearly been the top threat out of the backfield for ULM, as the tailback is leading the way with 670 yards and three scores on 5.7 ypc. In the win over ASU, the Warhawks were once again led by Dawson, who churned out 114 yards and one score on 26 totes. The passing attack also put forth a nice effort in the win, as Kinsmon Lancaster threw for 195 yards and two scores. Unfortunately Lancaster has dealt with consistency issues this year, as the signal caller has thrown for just 630 yards and has just five touchdowns in five games. Lancaster has completed just 54.2 percent of his passes and has also tossed three interceptions.

Where the Warhawks have struggled this season is on the defensive end of the field, as the unit is being abused by the run and also from the pass. ULM heads into this matchup surrendering 196.2 ypg on the ground, while also being torched for 271.4 ypg via the pass. All that yardage has led to a whopping 35 points per contest allowed. In the recent win over the Indians, the Warhawks put forth easily their best defensive performance, holding ASu to just 376 total yards, including just 206 yards through the air. The squad forced three turnovers in the win, and are now a plus two in turnover ratio heading into this weekend's game. ULM also held the Indians to just 2-of-13 on third down attempts and just 16 first downs. James Truxillo is currently leading the team with 41 tackles on the season and in the win over ASU the safety grabbed six stops and one TFL.

Offensively the Mean Green are a one-trick pony, as the team lives by its passing attack. North Texas heads into this game averaging a whopping 341.2 ypg through the air. The overwhelming success with the passing attack has left a lot to be desired by the ground game, which is pounding out just 95.2 ypg. The offensive trend for UNT continued this past weekend, as the Mean Green threw for 383 yards. The quarterback behind that yardage was Giovanni Vizza, as he finished the contest 35-of-57 with three touchdowns. Unfortunately the signal caller also threw three interceptions and was sacked twice. This was clearly Vizza's best performance of the season, as the QB has completed just 50 percent of his passes thus far, and has just four touchdowns against six interceptions on the season. Daniel Meager has been far more productive and in four games has completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 1,081 yards and four scores. Regardless of who is under center, that player will certainly be looking in the direction of Casey Fitzgerald, who has 52 receptions, 727 yards and five touchdowns.

This could possibly be the worst defensive unit in the entire nation. The Mean Green are currently last in the nation in total defense (547.0 ypg) and points allowed (51.6 ppg). While the team is being torched for 291.8 ypg through the air, the main problem for UNT has been its run defense, which is being pounded for 255.2 ypg. The struggle against run continued this past weekend as the Mean Green were abused for an eye-popping 300 yards by the Ragin' Cajuns. North Texas allowed ULL to churn out an amazing 8.6 ypg, and also allowed the Cajuns to score three times via the run. The defense forced two turnovers in the contest, but finished with only two sacks. This unit for UNT has had trouble making the big play all year and heads into this matchup with just eight forced turnovers and a meager four sacks. Aaron Weathers and Maurice Holman have been the top two performers for this defense, as the two players have recorded, 35 and 29 tackles, respectively.

Considering how poorly the Mean Green have performed against the run and on their home field, expect a strong win for the Warhawks. Dawson and company should have an easy time finding holes and the end zone.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: UL-Monroe 41, North Texas 31

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untbowler Grand Master

untbowler

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I think Vizza will be ready for the weekend and if we have new speed at LB we might be able to shut them down somewhat, but I think ULM may take this game. Similar to FAU without the mistakes this time.

Vizza goes for 350 again, Mosely breaks out with 100yd game

Defense holds ULM to under 30 points.

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Green Lantern Mentor

Green Lantern

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I think Vizza will be ready for the weekend and if we have new speed at LB we might be able to shut them down somewhat, but I think ULM may take this game. Similar to FAU without the mistakes this time.

Vizza goes for 350 again, Mosely breaks out with 100yd game

Defense holds ULM to under 30 points.

I also think that you will not see Vizza come out as shaky to start this game. If we can establish the offense early this week (and sustain it), we should give ourselves a chance.

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GreenBat Newbie

GreenBat

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Considering how poorly the Mean Green have performed against the run and on their home field, expect a strong win for the Warhawks. Dawson and company should have an easy time finding holes and the end zone.

NT has played 1, count it 1, home game. And the team played well in that game. This preview is bogus and has no informative substance. Win or lose, this season is all about learning how good the football team can be.

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Green Lantern Mentor

Green Lantern

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NT has played 1, count it 1, home game. And the team played well in that game. This preview is bogus and has no informative substance. Win or lose, this season is all about learning how good the football team can be.

This is something I've been meaning to comment on as well (might count as a thread hi-jack...but i don't care). I'd really like to see our schedules in the future feature more than 1 home game before the middle of October. Much has been attributed to our awful season so far, but playing so many away games early in the year certainly contributes as well. I know we had a good show of support at SMU, but it is not the same as playing at home.

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Guest GrayEagleOne

Guest GrayEagleOne

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This is something I've been meaning to comment on as well (might count as a thread hi-jack...but i don't care). I'd really like to see our schedules in the future feature more than 1 home game before the middle of October. Much has been attributed to our awful season so far, but playing so many away games early in the year certainly contributes as well. I know we had a good show of support at SMU, but it is not the same as playing at home.

Duly noted and we'd all like to see two home games in the first five but it's probably not our call. Everyone is wanting early home games and we don't command a lot of respect yet when setting our home schedule. We get some of these higher profile games because we are willing to travel. We probably look just scary enough to others of our ilk that they fear losing if they have to come here.

ULM has always been a thorn in our side, much on the order of Memphis. We lose to them even when we have the better team. We are improving. Last week was the first time that we won the TOP category and we had enough offense to win that game had we not given up the big plays. I expect the offense to be even better this week but I can't trust the defense enough to consider this a win (yet). It's hard to argue with the rationale of their article.

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