Bowl Speculation

[10Eagle10]

I read through several threads on here and couldn't find what I was looking for. My apologies if this has already been discussed, please point me in the right direction if such a post already exists.

 

There are currently 76 bowl eligible teams. Assuming USA and LaLa lose (which I realize they probably won't), that leaves 4 bowl openings. We are 1st in line after the 76.

The first 76 teams are placed in bowls based on their previous conference tie-ins. However, the APR teams get to pick whichever bowl they want from the ones that have have openings in order of score (we have first pick).

the question: which four bowls will have openings based on the 76 filling their prearranged tie-ins?

For example, the Big 12 will be short one team. Which bowl will be unfiled for them?

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

I mentioned it in another thread but basically right now I believe the unfilled ones are Armed Forces, Vegas, Quick Lane, and St Petersburg. The outliers right now are UNT, MissSt, and Army. One more will be decided Saturday. 

[Cerebus]

First, it's really 75.  Army is only APR bowl qualified right now because they can't count Lafayette.  Which is why the did not apply for the 2 FCS win waiver.  But even if they aren't getting in the regular way, they can get in because they are #1 APR.

Second, there are still two teams that can qualify.  

• ULL by beating ULM and getting to 6-6.
• USA by beating NMSU and getting to 6-6.

Either one of them winning will put them in line ahead of APR teams.  

• If Army, ULL, and USA all win there will be 78 bowl qualified teams, and the two APR teams will be NT and Miss St.
• If Army loses, but ULL and USA win there will be 77 bowl qualified teams, and 3 APR teams: Army, NT, Miss St.
• If Army loses, but one of ULL and USA win, there will be 76 bowl qualified teams, and 4 APR teams: Army, NT, Miss St. and Texas.
• If Army, ULL and USA all lose there will be 75 bowl qualifierd teams, and the 5 APR teams are: Army,NT, Miss St, Texas, and NIU.

 

[dmaxel]

For whatever reason I'm hoping for the last two scenarios in Cerebus's list. GIVE US TEXAS.

[10Eagle10]

25 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

I mentioned it in another thread but basically right now I believe the unfilled ones are Armed Forces, Vegas, Quick Lane, and St Petersburg. The outliers right now are UNT, MissSt, and Army. One more will be decided Saturday. 

Awesome. Thanks, Christopher!

I'm gonna sketch out some quick pros-cons for each of the 4.

LV: pros - on ABC (when was the lay time we played on a network AND in an almost exclusive time slot); Vegas, baby!  Cons- less time to spread out those 15 extra practices; vs MW

St Pete: pros - vs ACC (P5) team; Florida beach, baby! Con - day after Christmas, early game

QL: pro - vs ACC. Cons - day after Christmas, Detroit

Armed Forces: pro - Dec 23 in FW. Attendance. Con - having to play in TCU stadium. Navy will have tape on how we defend their offense.

i would be good with all of the options except Quick Lane. Luckily, I bet our administration agrees and will not choose that one.

 

Cerebus, thanks for your reply as well. I counted Army as #76 since they are ahead of us no matter what. I had already typed too much and didn't want to add all of that in my OP. 

how would you rank the possibilities?

[Cerebus]

6 minutes ago, 10Eagle10 said:

how would you rank the possibilities?

It's really hard to know until we see who the open bowls are.  You will want to root for ULM and NMSU this weekend, because I think the more open bowl slots, the better for us.  Not only will we have more choices, but it also opens up the possibilities for the conference to begin swapping bowls.

I think ODU saw the writing on the wall, no other bowl really wanted them, they were PROBABLY going to get stuck with Bahamas anyway.  Might as well get it out to their fans ASAP so it can lessen the travel cost blow.  

I am surprised USM hasn't announced the NO Bowl yet, maybe the bowl wants to hold off until they know their opponent.  

I think WKU and LaTech are both still leaning strongly to Boca and HoD.  However they both, especially LaTech, are willing to go to another bowl to get the best possible opponent.  They are worried about picking a bowl opponent they can beat, they want to pick someone that beating would make a lot of people notice.

Unfortunately I am not sure if they will get that chance.  Once of the major problems over the last few years is the P5 have re-arranged all the bowls so they rarely play G5 bowl opponents and run the risk of losing to them.