CBS's John Solomon mentions UNT QB signee Smith

[Harry]

Great article that shows the inaccuracy and craziness of football recruiting. The point of the article is how as many 2 stars players as 5 star players ended up on the 2014 AP all American class.

He lists all of the QB's ranked higher in the recruiting services than the best one Marcus Mariota who was ranked #12. Our signee DeMarcus Smith was #11 in the nation one spot higher.

read more: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/jon-solomon/25006759/welcome-to-the-silly-season-of-college-football-recruiting-rankings

[BillySee58]

I wouldn't say inaccuracy. It's all a percentage game with recruiting.

Let's say there are about 3000 players who sign FBS scholarships a year. Also, roughly, we'll say there are about 35 five-stars, 300 four-stars, 1000 three-stars, and 1665 two-stars. Not exact numbers, but close enough.

- 3 two-star All Americans is about 3 out of 1665, or roughly .18% of two-stars becoming All-Americans

- 3 five-star All Americans is about 3 out 35, or roughly 8.57% of five-stars becoming All-Americans.

These numbers are not exact, because you have to consider that not just one recruiting class yielded All-Americans this year, and some players from those recruiting classes represented on this year's All-American list may have produced All-Americans in past years or will in future years. But it's close enough where you get the point.

Whether you want to grade a recruiting class off of offer lists, star ratings, Rivals, 247, etc it doesn't really matter. In the end the percentages hold true over large sample sizes.

Sorry for hijacking. It's just interesting to see. I definitely do feel much better about Smith than any of the other JUCO QBs this staff has signed.

Edited January 30, 2015 by BillySee58

[UNTLifer]

True, but are 2-star prospects projected to become All-America team members?

[Greendylan]

I wouldn't say inaccuracy. It's all a percentage game with recruiting.

Let's say there are about 3000 players who sign FBS scholarships a year. Also, roughly, we'll say there are about 35 five-stars, 300 four-stars, 1000 three-stars, and 1665 two-stars. Not exact numbers, but close enough.

- 3 two-star All Americans is about 3 out of 1665, or roughly .0018% of two-stars becoming All-Americans

- 3 five-star All Americans is about 3 out 35, or roughly 8.57% of five-stars becoming All-Americans.

These numbers are not exact, because you have to consider that not just one recruiting class yielded All-Americans this year, and some players from those recruiting classes represented on this year's All-American list may have produced All-Americans in past years or will in future years. But it's close enough where you get the point.

Whether you want to grade a recruiting class off of offer lists, star ratings, Rivals, 247, etc it doesn't really matter. In the end the percentages hold true over large sample sizes.

Sorry for hijacking. It's just interesting to see. I definitely do feel much better about Smith than any of the other JUCO QBs this staff has signed.

Your point is certainly valid, and I don't mean to nitpick; however, wouldn't 3 out of 1665 be .18% and not .0018%?

[BillySee58]

Your point is certainly valid, and I don't mean to nitpick; however, wouldn't 3 out of 1665 be .18% and not .0018%?

True. Forgot to round 2 decimals.

[BillySee58]

True, but are 2-star prospects projected to become All-America team members?

Um, no, I guess. I don't really get what that has to do with my point. I'd argue that not even five-stars are projected to be All-Americans. But they are projected to be more likely to make an All-American team than other players. And they are.

[cogido]

Will D Smith be in spring training? If he is a real deal,then he and Conner Means and little Mac should have some elevated competition. I know this drove coach Mac crazy last season, along with me. Good thing is that I see a frenzy to improve over last year, I haven't seen too many frenzies to improve in years back. Gotta be Irish Mac.

[MeanGreenTexan]

Will D Smith be in spring training? If he is a real deal,then he and Conner Means and little Mac should have some elevated competition. I know this drove coach Mac crazy last season, along with me. Good thing is that I see a frenzy to improve over last year, I haven't seen too many frenzies to improve in years back. Gotta be Irish Mac.

Yep.

He's already signed.

[greenit]

And enrolled in school.

[UNTLifer]

Billy, I think we mean the same thing. I was basing my comment off of how Rivals explains their ratings systems. The most highly rated, 5 stars, are projected to be major impact players with Pro potential, while the 2 star players are projected to be a mid-major prospect or a role player. Now I am not a fan of their rating system, because some kids hit their high water mark in high school while others continue to develop beyond expectations which is why I have always felt the true grading of a recruiting class should be 3 or 4 years after they sign, but based on Rivals explanation a 2 star recruit isn't really projected to become an All American.

Then again, the rivals system, and many others, just don't always make sense. I like your system based upon other offers, etc...

[Mean Green 93-98]

Will D Smith be in spring training? If he is a real deal,then he and Conner Means and little Mac should have some elevated competition. I know this drove coach Mac crazy last season, along with me. Good thing is that I see a frenzy to improve over last year, I haven't seen too many frenzies to improve in years back. Gotta be Irish Mac.

It will also be interesting to see how Dajon responds to all this. Does this push him to give his best and show what he can do? And who knows, maybe even Greer can lose his timid streak and provide quality depth.

[GMG24]

Greer's going to be the best signaler in NT history, bc he knows that playbook forwards and backwards. Hell, he may even change a bad play all by Chico into a TD call