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STRATFOR: Ukraine Has Options If It Chooses to Invade

In any military campaign, geography is key. Ukraine shares a 1,900-kilometer (1,200-mile) border with Russia. Ninety percent of Ukraine is flat terrain, punctuated with small hills, depressions and shallow riverine valleys. It is excellent ground for armored warfare, and Ukraine's border is not anchored to any specific or defensible geographic feature.

The Dnieper River is a key terrain feature, sloping from the north of Ukraine into the southeast before switching back west of Crimea to the Black Sea. The river effectively bisects the country into its eastern and western regions. The Dnieper River Valley has a well-developed network of ravines and gullies, extending into a system of tributaries.
The terrain in eastern Ukraine is predominantly steppe (Ukraine's grasslands, mainly in the south) or forest-steppe (historically broadleaf forests and grassland in a band across Ukraine's center). This provides very good observation across the flatlands. Anyone or anything cresting the high ground would be observable for miles. Large formations moving over any kind of distance would find it nearly impossible to conceal their movements. The best cover from direct-fire weapons would be the natural protection of slopes and terrain features. The open terrain provides little cover from the air, offering a huge advantage to whoever controls the skies.
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As of January 2013, 766,055 officers and soldiers were paid to serve in the Russian armed forces. Approximately 400,000 of these serve in the Western and Southern Military districts, which directly border Ukraine. There are also approximately 22,000 Russian troops in Crimea. These forces are bottled up because of the narrow land bridge connecting Crimea to Ukraine, but they could be moved by air or sea.
Given Russia's vast borders, only a portion of its overall forces could be tasked with an invasion of Ukraine. The Russians must continue to maintain a significant presence in the North Caucasus, using manpower traditionally provided from the Southern Military District. To maintain a military presence along its western borders with NATO and Finland, Russia leans heavily on forces within its Western Military District.
For a scenario as complex as an invasion, Russia would most likely draw on principal units from the 20th Army of the Western Military District, based out of Voronezh, and elements of both the 49th and 58th Armies of the Southern Military District, headquartered in the North Caucasus. The Russians could also rely on a number of special operations forces, such as the Spetsnaz and Vozdushno-desantnye voyska airborne units, although a number have already been deployed in Crimea. Of the 5,000-10,000 special operations forces in Russia, a portion could easily be redeployed by air to where they were needed.
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The Ukrainian military consists of approximately 130,000 personnel, of which around 65,000 serve in the ground forces. Of these troops, only between 6,000 and 10,000 are fit for service. Moreover, less than 20 percent of Ukraine's armored vehicle crews are sufficiently trained. In Ukraine's air force, only 15 percent of Ukrainian combat aircraft are serviceable and only 10 percent of its aircrews have trained for combat. The Ukrainian government is setting up a new national guard that could supplement these troops.
The vast bulk of Ukrainian forces are based west of the Dnieper River -- a legacy of the Cold War, when Soviet forces were positioned for a fight against NATO. The only brigades east of the Dnieper are the 1st Tank Brigade to the north, the 79th airmobile brigade near Crimea, the 92nd and 93rd Mechanized Brigades in the east, and the elite 25th Airborne Brigade near Novomoskovsk. Any troops relocated from Crimea would need to be rearmed, though they could be assimilated into Western forces.
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According to official sources, U.S. military intelligence has reason to suspect that Russia has already deployed elements of the 45th Spetsnaz regiment, affiliated with the Russian Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU, in eastern and southern Ukraine. Likely tasks for strategic special operations forces would include the surveillance of local Ukrainian military deployments, coordination with local sympathetic forces -- similar to has occurred in Crimea -- and preparation for possible acts of sabotage in the event of a Russian invasion.
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Given the favorable terrain, infrastructure and proximity of key objectives in eastern Ukraine, a Russian advance would likely consist of rapid thrusts using tanks and armored infantry fighting vehicles at several points across a broad front; Russian brigades are geared toward fast and violent onslaughts. From the areas where Russian forces are concentrated in the regions of Kursk, Belgorodskaya and Rostov, the Russians can invade along numerous highways.
The Russians would advance with reconnaissance elements leading the way to identify any enemy locations and dispositions. Long-range heavy artillery and combat aviation would be used to engage any fixed targets or hardened points. Urban strongholds would initially be cordoned off and bypassed, though at some stage Russia would have to pacify any towns, villages or cities. Securing urban populations and protecting supply lines would present a significant manpower burden for the Russians.
Although weak, Ukraine's air force still poses a threat to any invading force. It would need to be neutralized, particularly if the Russians were to carry out significant airborne operations -- likely to secure key infrastructure ahead of an armored advance -- or paratroop drops into the natural drop zones provided by Ukraine's open spaces. Although the time frame is difficult to calculate, the Russian air force could achieve air superiority in an estimated 24-48 hours. This would require the coordinated destruction of strategic Ukrainian air defense and radar installations and strikes against Ukraine's Su-27 and MiG-29 airbases.
In any scenario, Kiev would become a nexus for defense. A rapid thrust by Russian forces toward Kiev would pin down substantial Ukrainian forces, allowing Russian ground assets to maneuver elsewhere and overwhelm Ukraine's dispersed eastern military elements. Given distance, terrain and force considerations, the Russians probably could take Kharkov and Luhansk quickly, even if resistance continued in the urban centers. Donetsk and Mariupol would take a little longer before succumbing. It is unlikely that Russia would seize Odessa as part of the initial thrust, but the Black Sea Fleet would be able to blockade the port, preventing the Ukrainian navy from being brought into play.
The first serious geographical obstacle that the Russians would encounter is the Dnieper, located between 200 and 300 kilometers east of the Russian border. By the time the Russians could reach the river, Ukrainian forces would have had time to destroy key bridges. Assuming the Russians have air supremacy, any amassed defensive forces along the Dnieper's western bank would suffer heavy attrition from Russian aircraft.

Like I said before. Ukraine can be part of Russia at any time Putin decides to do it.

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The Independent: Vladimir Putin ‘wants to regain Finland’ for Russia, adviser says

Finland has increased border surveillance in recent weeks as Mr Putin moves to ‘protect what belongs to him and his predecessors’

According to Andrej Illarionov, the President’s chief economic adviser from 2000 to 2005, Mr Putin seeks to create “historical justice” with a return to the days of the last Tsar, Nicholas II, and the Soviet Union under Stalin.
Speaking to the Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, Mr Illarionov warned that Russia will argue that the granting of independence to Finland in 1917 was an act of “treason against national interests”.
He added: “The West’s leaders seem, from what they say, entirely to have forgotten that there are some leaders in the world who want to conquer other countries.”

Russian fighter jets light up Finnish sky

Residents in eastern Finland on Wednesday made a number of calls to emergency services over what they thought were emergency flares. The night sky over the Finnish-Russian borderlands was flared with bright colors similar to emergency lights, Yle reports.

It soon turned out that the light formations all came from the major ongoing air drills conducted this week by the Russian Air Force.
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“We are Russia’s neighbor [and] unlike other neighbours, we do not have Nato membership. Our neighbourly relationship is built on bilateral relations,” the Finnish President says to the Finnish broadcaster.
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Before you push the Post button, look at it. Is it something germane to the thread that happens to have some local US politics in it? Fine, make sure you tone it

Why are you bringing the Germanes into the conversation?

Joking aside, gagree with Cerebus. Let's all stay on topic.

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Now he wants Finland? I wonder if Putin will bite off more than he can chew. Russia is a massive country. I don't know how feasable it is to take all of the former Soviet republics back at the same time, in addition to any other country, like Finland. I'm not sure he could take on all fronts at the same time. If he was facing just that nation's military, possibly, but once you factor in assistance from other countries like the US, GB, France, etc.

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Now he wants Finland?

Russia has historically been an imperialist country. It doesn't actually need to annex all of the countries around it. But it does want them under their complete control as puppet states.

You know who isn't being threatened with invasion. Countries like Belarus. What's special about Belarus? It's already a puppet state. Their political system is a mouth piece for Putin. Russia had in effect already bought and paid for Ukraine to follow a similar path. But when the people rose up and demanded the removal of the puppet president? Well then he had to take things a step further.

Breaking off South Ossestia from Georgia was a test, to see if Russia could get away with breaking off a piece of a country it wanted. Now they are testing to see how much flak they catch for slowly absorbing Ukraine a part at a time. If they get away with it, then the choice for the other non NATO countries is pretty clear. Parrot what Russia says, or have Vlad Putin correct some "historical error" or "protect Russian speaking peoples."

I don't think Putin would pull the same tricks on a NATO country. That would lead to a shooting war with the real possibility of swapping nukes.

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Now he wants Finland? I wonder if Putin will bite off more than he can chew. Russia is a massive country. I don't know how feasable it is to take all of the former Soviet republics back at the same time, in addition to any other country, like Finland. I'm not sure he could take on all fronts at the same time. If he was facing just that nation's military, possibly, but once you factor in assistance from other countries like the US, GB, France, etc.

Could just be a feint.

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Why do Russians support intervention in Ukraine?

Ok. This *is* from Al Jazeera. No, the terrorists are Al Qaeda. Yes, they are owned by Qataris. No, that isn't a video game system. Like all news media, you have to learn their bias and try to correct for that. I have seen some exceptionally good reporting from them. Blood and Dust, a documentary on the good US Medevac crews accomplish is an example of that.


To answer this question, let's focus on what one would call "ordinary Russians" that fall into the demographic of Putin's core electorate: the 50+ (my parents') generation of middle to lower class people whose education is the product of Soviet-era conceptualisation of history, citizenship and identity. Their adamant support for Russia's takeover of Crimea reflects Russian President's triumphalist rhetoric of "regional stability", "rendering a helping hand to the fraternal nation" and "fighting fascism".
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In reality, Ukrainian modern-day national identity is largely construed in opposition to Russia, emphasising the "free spirit" of the "new Ukraine" and contrasting it with the political anaemia of contemporary Russia. In positing its European orientation, the popular national discourse in Ukraine emphasises its historically unique individualistic and democratic foundations, including a deep respect for individual rights, individual dignity, personal freedom, self-governance and the hegemony of popular rule. The Russian society is widely seen as passive, dogmatic, backward-looking and predisposed to blind obedience to state authority. The sentiment is captured in the bitter lines of a young Ukrainian poet:

We will never be brothers
Neither by motherland nor by mother
You have no free spirit inside you
You are not even a step-sibling to us
You say, "Silence is golden"
While we light up Molotov cocktails
Our blood is boiling
We have no use for a blind relative like you.
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In justifying Putin's "firm fist" politics, the popular discourse appeals to the need to stand up to two decades of US' perceived indiscriminate meddling in the global status quo, including instigating political instability in the neighbouring Ukraine, pushing for the eastward expansion of NATO and encroaching on Russia's geopolitical interests.
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As was the case with Vladimir Putin's anti-American rhetoric and the vote-winning narrative of stability, Russian state propaganda does not generate these frames but merely taps into the existing ones by presenting half-truths and carefully choosing the language that picks the desired frame of reference.


ETA: Just noticed above link to Blood and Dust is broken, here is a working link to Blood and Dust. Warning, there are some graphic scenes in it.

Edited by Cerebus
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Daily Beast: Photographs Expose Russian-Trained Killers in Kiev

Many of the 53 people slain died from clean shots to the head or neck—telltale wounds inflicted by expert marksmen

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The pictures shared exclusively with The Daily Beast show members of a crack anti-terrorist unit known as the Alfa Team in the courtyard of the headquarters of Ukraine’s feared state security service, the SBU, preparing themselves for battle.

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The SBU is the successor intelligence agency to the Ukrainian branch of the Soviet-era KGB and it still maintains exceptionally close ties to Moscow. For many years “leading SBU functionaries came from the KGB,” says Boris Volodarsky, a former Russian military intelligence officer and author of the book The KGB’s Poison Factory. He says Russia’s intelligence service, now known as the FSB, has made sure over the years to maintain deep penetration of its Ukrainian counterpart and to ensure that its “agents and associates remain in place.” That was easily done during thepresidency of the pro-Russian Yanukovych.

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The death toll of at least 53 people on February 20 doubled the body count of the previous two days. At first the protesters had lost ground. Waves of coordinated sniper fire and riot police assaults pushed them back. But they clung on finally to the Maidan.

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The unique photographs and 90 gigabytes of video material shared with The Daily Beast provide strong evidence that the massacre in the Maidan was in fact a vicious and clinical assault ordered by the pro-Russian Yanukovych regime and executed by its arch loyalists. But that has not prevented the Kremlin from attempting to orchestrate its own narrative of events.

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Putin's core electorate: the 50+ (my parents') generation of middle to lower class people whose education is the product of Soviet-era conceptualisation of history, citizenship and identity.

Let's remember that group is a large percentage of the Russian population. Let's take a look at our friend, the CIA World Factbook, specifically the age structures.

Some countries, like Mexico, are considered to have a very young population, which is clearly shown with thier "population pyramid."

2ToSi8W.gif

You don't get much more pyramidy than that. Historically, pop distros have looked like this, and this is why this type of graphic is called a population pyramid in the first place.

Of course, in the modern world, many age distributions, especially in developed countries do not look like that. Japan is considered an old country, and this shows why:

8ngmBNI.gif

A lot of retirement aged people as compared to younger folks. This leads to all sorts of socioeconomic problems. As witnessed on Japan's own Great Recession, now over 21 years of zero GDP growth.

Some countries can overcome this sort of growth by being able to either incentive child birth, or attract a ton of immigrants (who usually bringer higher birth rates). America is the shining example of this. This is a much healthier pop distro:

mbKqLeD.gif

Not quite a true pyramid, but a house with a solid foundation.

Now let's look at those damn Ruskies!

4jbXB8t.gif

A couple of things here. 1) this is not healthy long term. How are those younger folks going to support the older ones? 2) a ton of modern day Russians were in fact raised in the Soviet education system. At the very least they grew up in a time when Russia was a world power. 3) Russian will continue to decline as it's population continues to fall.

This is pretty common through out Eastern Europe. Where the economies are not doing well (I'll get into how the EU is really a taxing scheme that taxes poor eastern euro farmers/manufactures for access to the large French/German economies and uses that money to pay for French daycare at a later date, whenever we don't have other things to scream about), there isn't a lot of hope for improvement, the former soviet system that encouraged baby making is gone, and Russian doom is next door. Look at this list:

eZe3Rll.gif

ETA: One really interesting thing in the US/Russian age distros is that the women start outliving the males much earlier in Russia. Look at those distros. You can see there being many more women that men in the US around age 80. In Russia? Age 60.

Why? Vodka!

A recent study found that 1 in 8 deaths in Russia was to an alcohol related disease. Men are much more at risk, with the life expectancy in Russia for men being 66, 17 years fewer than Western Europeans.

Alcohol Blamed for Half of '90s Russian Deaths

Edited by Cerebus
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Ukraine crisis: Putin 'orders partial withdrawal'

On Monday afternoon, Mr Putin informed Germany's chancellor about "the partial withdrawal of Russian troops he ordered from the eastern border of Ukraine", Mrs Merkel's office said in a statement.

"On top of that, the two discussed further possible steps to stabilise the situation in Ukraine and Trans-Dniester," it added, referring to a pro-Russian region bordering western Ukraine that proclaimed independence from Moldova in 1990.
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His comments came after the Russian defence ministry announced that a 15th Separate Motor-Rifle Brigade battalion had completed field exercises at the Kadamovsky range in the Rostov region, and was returning to its permanent base in the Samara region.
A motor-rifle battalion is believed to comprise about 500 men.
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A senior Western diplomat said approximately 40,000 soldiers were in place, and that they still offered a huge potential for intimidation.

This is not a partial withdrawal. This is like calling a toenail clipping a partial amputation.

ETA: This may mean Putin is waiting to see how the may elections go. See if the forced used so far was enough to cause the Ukrainians to fall back in line.

Edited by Cerebus
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Foreign Ministry concerned about 'strange' maneuvers of Russian troops on border with Ukraine

"We have information that the Russian Federation is conducting strange maneuvers on the border with Ukraine. Troops are being pulled back in some areas, and in other areas, quite the contrary, they are being brought. Such movements of armed forces cannot but cause concern," he said.

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Despite what is being said to John Kerry and the Germans, the Russians are in no way shape or form backing off what they have always said, at least to their own public.

Lavrov: Russia has info about Ukraine’s Right Sector involved in Kiev sniper shooting

"has info" means the west did it, and Russia still may have to step in to protect it's brothers.

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What the hell is wrong with you people? Stop crapping this thread up. Stop trying to score political points. Can we at least all pretend we are functional adults? Is that too much to ask?

Here's a little tip, this thread is about geopolitical events, of course some US politics will play into it. BUT, there is no reason to dirty this discussion with it more than necessary. Before you push the Post button, look at it. Is it something germane to the thread that happens to have some local US politics in it? Fine, make sure you tone it down as much as possible and try to not rile up the other side. IS IT SOMETHING THAT IS TANGENTIALLY TIED TO THE DISCUSSION WHERE YOUR PRIMARY POINT IN POSTING IS TO TRY AND SCORE POINTS FOR WHATEVER PART YOU VOTE FOR?!?! DON'T. FUCKING. POST IT.

You can probably guess my political leanings, but I have tried to remain as neutral as possible. I am talking to both sides about this. Everyone needs to watch it. Everyone.

Everyone?

bzeiiDD.gif

I really can't make it any clearer than this. Keep it up and I'll just delete the thread.

Where are you in about 75% of the other threads on GMG.Com that get derailed and just crapped all in? If this is right and correct for this thread it should be the others as well....and, I do agree with your thinking here.

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Where are you in about 75% of the other threads on GMG.Com that get derailed and just crapped all in?

Go talk to an admin. That's not my job anymore. When I was an admin, I was pretty hardcore about things, ask any of the old posters. I am not threatening to ban anyone, I'll just stop posting in this thread.

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Pravda: Kiev Deputy Mayor Shot By "Right Sector" activists
Forgive the terrible translation

In the center of Kiev near the restaurant "Mafia" on Khreschatyk shooting occurred. Later it became known that the conflict arose between activist allegedly "right sector" and fighter Self Maidan.

Mihajlina Skoryk journalist reported that one of the wounded - the first deputy chairman of KSCA Bohdan Dubas, the second - fighter of self-defense.


ETA: Live feed from outside hotel.

ETA2: Twitter!

Edited by Cerebus
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HuffPo: Putin's Iron-Fisted Message

The revolution in Ukraine, and Russia's lightning-speed annexation of Crimea, have triggered a landslide shift in the Russian media. With Russia's state-owned domestic mass media firmly under government control, the Kremlin is putting increasing pressure on smaller, independent media. Internationally, it is moving aggressively to champion Russia's policies and values by rebuilding the decayed communications and propaganda structures of the Soviet Union.

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RIA Novosti, Russia's leading news agency, founded in 1941 to report from the frontlines of the war against Nazi Germany, was ordered to liquidate within three months. The Voice of Russia short-wave radio, founded in 1929 as Radio Comintern, was ordered shut as well.

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RIA's editor in chief Svetlana Mironyuk, several Russian journalists agree, was caught in a tenuous balancing act. She had hired a number of popular, influential journalists from liberal media outlets. Her website carried live reports from the anti-Putin protests in Moscow during the winter of 2012. Far-right Russian groups criticized RIA Novosti's reports on the uprising in Ukraine as a "sewer" of pro-Western propaganda.

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In their place Putin decreed formation of a new international information agency, Russia Today. Its mission: "to highlight abroad the state policy and public life of the Russian Federation." Russian officials provided few details but explained the step was being taken in order to more economically utilize government funds and to improve the effectiveness of state media.

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Kiselev also was toeing the line on the Russian government's increasingly strident tone on "depraved" Western values like gay rights, at one point saying "fining gays is not sufficient - they should not be allowed to give blood, or sperm and in case of a car accident, their hearts should be burnt or buried as useless". In February, reacting to a CNN website story lampooning a monument to Soviet forces in World War II, he insinuated that the U.S. Marine's Iwo Jima monument looked like some gay guys having sex.

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Dozhd' TV - the word means "Rain" in Russian - attracted viewers from the hip, young world of Moscow's successful middle class, the group that the Kremlin has, essentially, given up on attracting to its political ranks. Until February, the privately-owned channel was broadcast on cable, private satellite and on the Internet; its news included criticism of the government and gave air time to well-known Putin critics, like Alexei Navalny. It reported on allegations of corruption and human rights abuses during preparations for the Olympic Games in Sochi. And it broadcast news of the uprising in Kiev.

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"All TV networks are either under state control or under control of the state-affiliated companies that are headed by Putin's closest friends," investigative journalist Yevgenia Albats, chief editor of The New Times magazine told me in March. "All these current media are in the hands of the Kremlin."

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Only national unity, in which the individual sets aside his own welfare for the good of the country, Putin believes, can ensure the nation will survive. Russia is a unique civilization, fully entitled to reject the values forced down its throat by the West. No longer on its knees, Russia now can project its own principles, superior to the West's.

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"Our Western partners, headed by the United States, prefer not to be guided by international law in their practical policies, but by the rule of the gun. They have come to believe in their exceptionalism and their sense of being the chosen ones. That they can decide their destinies of the world, that it is only they who can be right."
His litany included Yugoslavia in 1999 and the Western bombing of Belgrade; the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan; the "color" revolution in Ukraine and Georgia; the "chaos" of the Arab Spring; the United States' missile defense system: "We understand what is happening," Putin said. "We understand that these actions were aimed against Ukraine and Russia and against Eurasian integration. And all this while Russia strived to engage in dialogue with our colleagues in the West. We are constantly proposing cooperation on all key issues; we want to strengthen our level of trust and for our relations to be equal, open and fair. But we saw no reciprocal steps."
For Putin, it's personal, says a senior journalist at a major Russian newspaper. "There is quite an emotional factor here."
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In his speech to the Russian Parliament on Crimea Putin said as much: "They cheated us again and again, made decisions behind our back, presenting us with completed facts. That's the way it was with the expansion of NATO in the East, with the deployment of military infrastructure at our borders. They always told us the same thing: 'Well, this doesn't involve you.'"
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Albats reminds me of the Russian expression "sobirat' zemli" ("to collect the territories".) "Many times before in his speeches he (Putin) has referred to those czars who managed to expand the Russian empire so that there's nothing new there. It's another question why the West has seen Putin for what he never was. We're talking about the blindness of the West."
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"It's another question why the West has seen Putin for what he never was. We're talking about the blindness of the West."

Dead on quote here. And we better wake up before it is too late. What Putin is doing inside Russia is even more frightening than what he has done in Crimea and Georgia.

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The Economist: 1984 in 2014

A new propaganda war underpins the Kremlin’s clash with the West

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Russians have been subjected to an intense, aggressive and blunt disinformation campaign in which they were bombarded by images of violence, chaos and fascism in Ukraine, sinister plotting by the West and evidence of Russia’s strength and nobility in response. The Russian media have always shaped reality as much as they have reflected it. But in the seizure of Crimea, television played as much of a leading role as the army. Russian television, widely watched in Crimea, bolstered the loyalty of the local population while justifying the Kremlin’s actions at home.

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On March 24th the Kremlin made an example of Andrei Zubov, a Russian historian, who was among the first to draw parallels between Russia’s occupation of Crimea and the annexation of Austria and Sudetenland territories in 1938-39. He was fired from his teaching position at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, patronised by the foreign ministry. Mr Zubov’s articles and interviews, the institute said, “contradict Russia’s foreign policy and inflict careless, irresponsible criticism on the actions of the state, thus causing damage to the teaching and educational process.” In an article in Vedomosti on March 1st, Mr Zubov had cited a speech by Hitler that was strikingly similar to the rhetoric used by Mr Putin when he addressed the nation about the annexation of Crimea. As Vedomosti commented in an editorial, the sacking merely confirms the accuracy of Mr Zubov’s parallels.

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This was so surprising, I had to double check news sources just to make sure it wasn't an April Fools joke.

Ukraine agrees to host NATO war games

Ukraine's parliament on Tuesday approved a series of joint military exercises with NATO countries that would put US troops in direct proximity to Russian forces in the annexed Crimea peninsula.

"This is a good opportunity to develop our armed forces," acting defence minister Mykhailo Koval told Verkhovna Rada lawmakers ahead of the 235-0 vote.
The exercises approved on Tuesday would see Ukraine conduct two sets of military exercises with the United States this summer -- Rapid Trident and Sea Breeze -- that have prompted disquiet in Russia in previous years.
Ukraine is planning two additional manoeuvres with NATO member Poland as well as joint ground operations with Moldova and Romania.

To go along with that:

NATO to bolster forces in east Europe, sees no Russian pullback

NATO studied new steps to bolster its military presence in eastern Europe on Tuesday while saying it saw no sign that Russia was withdrawing tens of thousands of troops from the Ukrainian border.

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They will also step up cooperation with Ukraine and decide whether to cut the alliance's relations with Moscow beyond the steps it has already taken, which include halting lower-level meetings with Russian counterparts.

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As NATO ministers met, Russia warned Ukraine against integration with NATO, saying Kiev's previous attempts to move closer to the defence alliance had had unwelcome consequences.

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Diplomats said the ministers would consider options ranging from stepped-up military exercises and temporarily sending more forces to eastern member states to the permanent basing of alliance forces in those countries - a step Moscow would view as provocative.

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Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who said earlier he would be satisfied if NATO located two heavy brigades in Poland, said on arrival at the NATO meeting that he would welcome any NATO forces being stationed there.

Just a few more tick marks on the Nuclear Armageddon Checklist.

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