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Realtime Rpi Now Projection .............................

MeanGreen61

By MeanGreen61
in Mean Green Basketball

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CMJ Grand Master

CMJ

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Posted

RealtimeRPI lists as 23-4 (14-2). Kenpom failed rudimentary math and has us at 23-6 (12-4) yet only shows 2 conference losses (@WKU & @ASU).

KenPom usually states that his record and game projections don't always match because he computes what the full record should be on his models and then game by game matchups separate from each other.

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Mean Green Matt Veteran

Mean Green Matt

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KenPom usually states that his record and game projections don't always match because he computes what the full record should be on his models and then game by game matchups separate from each other.

Wouldn't it be easier if he just did all the game by game matchups and added up the record?

I can make him an excel spreadsheet for that if he needs one. <_<

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CMJ Grand Master

CMJ

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Posted

Wouldn't it be easier if he just did all the game by game matchups and added up the record?

I can make him an excel spreadsheet for that if he needs one. <_<

I think because he assigns percentages he calculates if a team is projected to win several 55/45 or 60/40 types of games -- odds are they will drop one or two over time.

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TheTastyGreek Collaborator

TheTastyGreek

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Posted (edited)

Pomeroy does cumulative probabilities. If you have a 90% likelihood of winning each of the 16 individual conference games, you've only got a 18.5% chance at actually going undefeated through all of them.

His predictive model gives a probability for each individual game then a collective estimate based on those individual probabilities. If his model predicts you as a 51% favorite in 16 games, he's not actually projecting you to go 16-0. He's projecting you to go 8-8 or (maybe) 9-7.

That's why there's a discrepancy. It's also why people shouldn't crap themselves when we lose to a team once or twice a year that we're "better than".

Edited by TheTastyGreek
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