DRC: UNT's post-spring depth chart with thoughts

[Aldo]

10 minutes ago, forevereagle said:

Just as a level set, in the 9 games that Fine played in last season, (not counting WKU since he barely played) he averaged more per game than what would be required to get to 2k for a full 12 game season. 20 TDs may be a high mark based on what we saw last season, but 2k yards should not be.

 

12 hours ago, MGNation92 said:

I just think 2k yards and 20tds should pretty much be the benchmark for an average Air Raid QB, and if the offense doesn't improve drastically I just don't see it happening. 

2k yards shouldn't be a problem. If we're using Air Raid as the context, I would push it 2,500 minimum or even 3,000 yards as an expectation for a team now in its second year.

20TDs? That would be remarkable. 

There's only one QB in the history of North Texas that has done it. Quick, who done it?

[MeanGreenTexan]

3 minutes ago, Aldo said:

 

2k yards shouldn't be a problem. If we're using Air Raid as the context, I would push it 2,500 minimum or even 3,000 yards as an expectation for a team now in its second year.

20TDs? That would be remarkable. 

There's only one QB in the history of North Texas that has done it. Quick, who done it?

Guess: Ramsey?

If we're considering the Air Raid in a vaccuum, then sure, those stats would be expected.   But the facts that our receiving corps have not proven themselves (which, we all have a lot of hope for this year), the OL's pass-protect is suspect, and the QB has not 'clicked' yet, combined with Jeff Wilson's proven ability, and you have an unconventional version of the Air Raid system reliant upon the running game.

[MGNation92]

16 minutes ago, Aldo said:

 

2k yards shouldn't be a problem. If we're using Air Raid as the context, I would push it 2,500 minimum or even 3,000 yards as an expectation for a team now in its second year.

20TDs? That would be remarkable. 

There's only one QB in the history of North Texas that has done it. Quick, who done it?

 

20 TD's would be remarkable if we weren't running an offensive system that regularly churns out 20+ TD passers every single year. I'm not saying Shanbour is better, I'm saying we need to raise our standards of QB play. 

There's a reason we were his only FBS offer folks. I stand by my statement. Prove me wrong.

[TreeFiddy]

47 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

I never mentioned practices.  Those are much more indicative than a single Spring Practice Game.
There's that stat, and also the myriad of other practices that have kept him from playing through the years.  He's a runner.  He doesn't have much patience in the pocket.  It's just the player he is.

Look Shanbour fans, I'm sorry to be the only one telling you this stuff...   The future is Fine & Pearson.  Shanbour appears to have worked his way to a backup role for now.  We'll see what Izzy does in the Fall, but don't expect Shanbour to start over Fine this season, or next.

I need to be clear: Nothing against Quinn Shanbour.  He's a great guy.  Very Football-smart.  Hard worker.  Fantastic teammate.  But, much like Dajon Williams' game against Nicholls St. was a mirage, you can't look at one Spring Practice stat line and say he's an amazing QB.

I have no illusions of Shanbour starting even though Fine has not showed a lot.  If we are going to have any success, Fine needs to step up and separate himself from the pack.  Shanbour has shown that he MAY have the potential to do what Fine did last year.  Unfortunately, we need more than last year's production.  Fine represents the best chance to improve over last year.  If you look at what we got out of the position (combined):

Att = 449
Comp = 261
Yds = 2708
Pct = 58.1
Yds/A = 6.03
TD = 15
Int = 13
Rating = 114 (Fine ranked 101 out of 109 rated players, awful)

It seems reasonable to expect the the QB position to improve on last year's numbers.  It doesn't really seem to be a stretch to expect/hope for 3,000 yards, 20 TDs, 12 Ints and a completion percentage near 60%, especially in an air raid system.  However, given our history we are talking about numbers rarely ever seen before so it sounds like crazy talk.  I don't think that is asking too much and would be surprised if the coaches aren't expecting even more.  Maybe it doesn't all come from 1 QB, but these numbers are not unreasonable imo.

Littrell seems to have firmly hitched his wagon to Fine so let's hope that it's because he sees potential in Fine and not just a lack of confidence in the rest.

 

 

Edited May 23, 2017 by TreeFiddy

[MeanGreenTexan]

1 minute ago, TreeFiddy said:

I have no illusions of Shanbour starting even though Fine has not showed a lot.  If we are going to have any success, Fine needs to step up and separate himself from the pack.  Shanbour has shown that he has the potential to do what Fine did last year.  Unfortunately, we need more than last year's production.  Fine represents the best chance to improve over last year.  If you look at what we got out of the position (combined):

Att = 449
Comp = 261
Yds = 2708
Pct = 58.1
Yds/A = 6.03
TD = 15
Int = 13
Rating = 114 (Fine ranked 101 out of 109 rated players, awful)

It seems reasonable to expect the the QB position to improve on last year's numbers.  It doesn't really seem to be a stretch to expect/hope for 3,000 yards, 20 TDs, 12 Ints and a completion percentage near 60%, especially in an air raid system.  However, given our history we are talking about numbers rarely ever seen before so it sounds like crazy talk.  I don't think that is asking too much and would be surprised if the coaches aren't expecting even more.  Maybe it doesn't all come from 1 QB, but these numbers are not unreasonable imo.

Littrell seems to have firmly hitched his wagon to Fine so let's hope that it's because he sees potential in Fine and not just a lack of confidence in the rest.

 

 

Littrell rode his workhorse into the ground last year.   Wilson had more rushing attempts last year (and over double the number of passing targets), than he did under McCarney's run-first offense prior to that.  

The offense goes as Wilson goes.   This isn't the typical "Air Raid" yet, because we don't have the horses to run that system as it should be.   Maybe the coaches can get more from the WRs & Fine this year, and coach Langston can coach up the OL to pass-protect better than coach Davis (that, I am skeptical of).  But unless Wilson is injured again, expect the offense to flow through him.

[MGNation92]

4 minutes ago, TreeFiddy said:

I have no illusions of Shanbour starting even though Fine has not showed a lot.  If we are going to have any success, Fine needs to step up and separate himself from the pack.  Shanbour has shown that he MAY have the potential to do what Fine did last year.  Unfortunately, we need more than last year's production.  Fine represents the best chance to improve over last year.  If you look at what we got out of the position (combined):

Att = 449
Comp = 261
Yds = 2708
Pct = 58.1
Yds/A = 6.03
TD = 15
Int = 13
Rating = 114 (Fine ranked 101 out of 109 rated players, awful)

It seems reasonable to expect the the QB position to improve on last year's numbers.  It doesn't really seem to be a stretch to expect/hope for 3,000 yards, 20 TDs, 12 Ints and a completion percentage near 60%, especially in an air raid system.  However, given our history we are talking about numbers rarely ever seen before so it sounds like crazy talk.  I don't think that is asking too much and would be surprised if the coaches aren't expecting even more.  Maybe it doesn't all come from 1 QB, but these numbers are not unreasonable imo.

Littrell seems to have firmly hitched his wagon to Fine so let's hope that it's because he sees potential in Fine and not just a lack of confidence in the rest.

 

 

Not to mention Alec Morris threw 9 of those 15 TD's in less games. 

Let's face it, you're a Shanbour apologist, and having expectations of an average air raid QB season are completely and utterly ridiculous. You know, because North Texas.

Should I also mention the fact that Jeffery Wilson hasn't played a full season in his entire career and *whispers* we may need a competent QB to win us a few football games.

But what do I know, I don't breakdown gifs and go on podcasts doing football analysis

[GrandGreen]

A lot of talk about the air raid offense like we have actually seen it.   I would caution anyone to not assume that last years offense is a big indicator of what to expect this year.   Littrell obviously didn't have the players he needed to effectively use his primary offense last year.   Doesn't the mass of wrs and ols added to the program tell a story?  In the same vain, QB didn't seem to be a big priority with only one high schooler given a ship.  

 

[Mean Green 93-98]

I like the post-spring depth chart.  It tells you who the coaches are trying to light a fire under.

[Ben Gooding]

Going into last season, we were 113th in overall team talent according to 247Sports. Though this stat hasn't been updated for the 2017 season, it's safe to say we didn't improve on that. Our overall talent is next to last in CUSA, only in front of the team that beat us 52-24 (UTEP).  A quick fix to this issue is having superior QB play, which we do not have. We need to win and we need to recruit better and we need to do it again. People are quick to throw these kind of numbers to the side,  but the top 6 team talent per 247sports, have 5 of our best teams at the top of CUSA team talent. It's no coincidence. This stuff doesn't just happen by chance. People compare chicken/egg as to winning/recruiting. I believe that winning has to come first, but it has to be consistent. So, my expectations are not high. But the air raid with a competent QB can catapult us into winning. And that will create better recruiting opportunities. For this to take place, the air raid has to be ran as it was intended. But conforming to the lack of ability in our current QB situation will get us playing at the level of our team talent ranking. I say all of that to say we need to run the system as it was intended and put someone at the QB position that will and can do it. 

Edited May 23, 2017 by Ben Gooding

[MeanGreenTexan]

11 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

I like the post-spring depth chart.  It tells you who the coaches are trying to light a fire under.

Yep.  
Some obvious ones:
Bryce English, Turner Smiley, Josh Wheeler.

Not even a mention of Chris Miles on the OL 2-deep.  That is concerning.   He's entering 'bust' territory if he cannot crack the 2-deep after being one of the highest-regarded recruits of the 2014 class.

Edit: Miles was out this spring rehabbing.  Hopefully he works his way back into the conversation in the Fall.

Edited May 23, 2017 by MeanGreenTexan

[Aldo]

2 hours ago, MGNation92 said:

Not to mention Alec Morris threw 9 of those 15 TD's in less games. 

Let's face it, you're a Shanbour apologist, and having expectations of an average air raid QB season are completely and utterly ridiculous. You know, because North Texas.

Should I also mention the fact that Jeffery Wilson hasn't played a full season in his entire career and *whispers* we may need a competent QB to win us a few football games.

But what do I know, I don't breakdown gifs and go on podcasts doing football analysis

You do realize we are mostly agreeing with you, right? Fine was below average in 2016, but he's what we got.

Because of our offense + talent, 20TDs from Fine is unrealistic, but 2,500+ yards isn't.

Wilson was the best player last year, and we would have skewered Littrell had we not used our best player at every available opportunity. That's how the air raid goes as well: you work your best player. 

Scoring production:

70% of our rushing TDs came from inside the red zone.

44% of ALL TDs came from rushes inside the red zone (compared to 23% passing).

1. Don't fix what ain't broke (rushing production)
2. Fix what is broke (passing production)

Edited May 23, 2017 by Aldo

[Ben Gooding]

1 minute ago, Aldo said:

You do realize we are mostly agreeing with you, right? Fine was below average in 2016, but he's what we got.

Because of our offense + talent, 20TDs from Fine is unrealistic, but 2,500+ yards isn't.

Wilson was the best player last year, and we would have skewered Littrell had we not used our best player at every available opportunity. That's how the air raid goes as well: you work your best player. 

Scoring production:

70% of our rushing TDs came from inside the red zone.

44% of ALL TDs came from rushes inside the red zone (compared to 23% passing).

1. Don't fix what ain't broke (rushing production)
2. Fix what is broke (passing production)

I wonder if people are writing Isadore off as just another body for the sake of competition? What if he's more than that? And what if Littrell doesn't want to ruin what will be a great competition in the Fall with bias comments in the Spring? Let's hope so. 

 

[Aldo]

Just now, Ben Gooding said:

I wonder if people are writing Isadore off as just another body for the sake of competition? What if he's more than that? And what if Littrell doesn't want to ruin what will be a great competition in the Fall with bias comments in the Spring? Let's hope so. 

Complete question mark. I want to know how that knee is.

[Ben Gooding]

Just now, Aldo said:

Complete question mark. I want to know how that knee is.

I think it was commented on that he was running drills during practice, but they wanted to keep him out of live practice for the sake of healing. If he was running drills in March/April, by August I would have to imagine his knee will be at 100% barring any re-tweaks of it over the summer. I haven't seen him live do anything, but I did see that clip of him throwing at Apogee and while basing an opinion off of that is naive, his throwing motion was fluid and arm strength is far superior than Fine. 

[MGNation92]

8 minutes ago, Aldo said:

You do realize we are mostly agreeing with you, right? Fine was below average in 2016, but he's what we got.

Because of our offense + talent, 20TDs from Fine is unrealistic, but 2,500+ yards isn't.

Wilson was the best player last year, and we would have skewered Littrell had we not used our best player at every available opportunity. That's how the air raid goes as well: you work your best player. 

Scoring production:

70% of our rushing TDs came from inside the red zone.

44% of ALL TDs came from rushes inside the red zone (compared to 23% passing).

1. Don't fix what ain't broke (rushing production)
2. Fix what is broke (passing production)

I'm just praying that Fine isn't Littrell's McNulty.

You can try as hard as you want but if it ain't there it ain't there. 

The fact is while Wilson is our workhorse, he's also made of glass, and I'd be willing to bet teams are going to key on that little swing pass next year because it was the only play we ran with any sort of consistency last year.

My question is, when you take away that safety net, will Fine be able to do anything else consistently well? So far I haven't seen it. Even with improved receivers

[Ben Gooding]

10 minutes ago, MGNation92 said:

I'm just praying that Fine isn't Littrell's McNulty.

You can try as hard as you want but if it ain't there it ain't there. 

The fact is while Wilson is our workhorse, he's also made of glass, and I'd be willing to bet teams are going to key on that little swing pass next year because it was the only play we ran with any sort of consistency last year.

My question is, when you take away that safety net, will Fine be able to do anything else consistently well? So far I haven't seen it. Even with improved receivers

What is even more concerning is how bad he looked in the spring game. It wasn't as if he was just bad, but his throws were awful, he looked rattled and confused, and he looked far from an FBS starting QB. The fact of it is that it looked as if he had actually regressed from the end of the season (or from the point he was injured). During the season it wasn't as if he was a rockstar either. He was hesitant and at times played not to make a mistake. We should all be concerned about this. You know, the most important position on a football team. And like you said, I believe Fine might actually be Littrell's McNulty and what a mistake that would be. Now we don't know what we really have outside of Fine, but I do think we have more. And if we do, we need to see it. 

Edited May 23, 2017 by Ben Gooding

[GrandGreen]

1 minute ago, Ben Gooding said:

What is even more concerning is how bad he looked in the spring game. It wasn't as if he was just bad, but his throws were awful, he looked rattled and confused, and he looked far from an FBS starting QB. The fact of it is that it looked as if he had actually regressed from the end of the season (or from the point he was injured). During the season it wasn't as if he was a rockstar either. He was hesitant and at times played not to make a mistake. We should all be concerned about this. You know, the most important position on a football team. And like you said, I believe Fine might actually be Littrell's McNulty and what a mistake that would be. Now we don't know what we really have outside of Fine, but I do think we have more. And if we do, we need to see it. 

Do you really think that Littrell is going to start an inferior player to the others on the team?   If Fine falters, he will replace him just like he did Morris in favor of Fine.    College coaches do everything they can to win, the belief that are gong to sacrifice their careers to play favorites is absurd. 

[Ben Gooding]

2 minutes ago, GrandGreen said:

Do you really think that Littrell is going to start an inferior player to the others on the team?   If Fine falters, he will replace him just like he did Morris in favor of Fine.    College coaches do everything they can to win, the belief that are gong to sacrifice their careers to play favorites is absurd. 

I don't really think it, no. But I do think coaches subconsciously give guys too much slack in the leash due to whatever misguided reason or reasons. And I do recall that Andrew McNulty happened. 

[MGNation92]

25 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

What is even more concerning is how bad he looked in the spring game. It wasn't as if he was just bad, but his throws were awful, he looked rattled and confused, and he looked far from an FBS starting QB. The fact of it is that it looked as if he had actually regressed from the end of the season (or from the point he was injured). During the season it wasn't as if he was a rockstar either. He was hesitant and at times played not to make a mistake. We should all be concerned about this. You know, the most important position on a football team. And like you said, I believe Fine might actually be Littrell's McNulty and what a mistake that would be. Now we don't know what we really have outside of Fine, but I do think we have more. And if we do, we need to see it. 

10 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

I don't really think it, no. But I do think coaches subconsciously give guys too much slack in the leash due to whatever misguided reason or reasons. And I do recall that Andrew McNulty happened. 

But Ben, this doesn't follow the hivemind groupthink of Mason Fine being our savior

Tread lightly. They're onto us

 

[untjim1995]

39 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

I don't really think it, no. But I do think coaches subconsciously give guys too much slack in the leash due to whatever misguided reason or reasons. And I do recall that Andrew McNulty happened. 

Has anyone checked into seeing if Mason Fine has a relative that was buddies with Seth Littrell while he was at OU???

sarcasm alert...or maybe not

[MeanGreenTexan]

14 minutes ago, MGNation92 said:

But Ben, this doesn't follow the hivemind groupthink of Mason Fine being our savior

Tread lightly. They're onto us

 

"hivemind groupthink".

 

Your argument is that Quinn Shanbour is better than Mason Fine, correct?  This opinion, largely based on his Spring Game stats and Mason Fine's Freshman year, correct?   
You need to understand that this is a minority viewpoint.  
And also that no one is calling Mason Fine a "savior".   It's just most people realize he has more promise than Shanbour.

[Ben Gooding]

2 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

"hivemind groupthink".

 

Your argument is that Quinn Shanbour is better than Mason Fine, correct?  This opinion, largely based on his Spring Game stats and Mason Fine's Freshman year, correct?   
You need to understand that this is a minority viewpoint.  
And also that no one is calling Mason Fine a "savior".   It's just most people realize he has more promise than Shanbour.

I don't think Shanbour is a part of the debate. Though he could be a part of it, and why not? I think the other guy is Isadore. 

[MGNation92]

2 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

"hivemind groupthink".

 

Your argument is that Quinn Shanbour is better than Mason Fine, correct?  This opinion, largely based on his Spring Game stats and Mason Fine's Freshman year, correct?   
You need to understand that this is a minority viewpoint.  
And also that no one is calling Mason Fine a "savior".   It's just most people realize he has more promise than Shanbour.

My argument is that Mason Fine is predictable and has shown no visible signs of improving. I have no idea what Shanbour, Isadore, or Pearson bring.

I'm just saying that Fine's season last year should look abysmal compared to whoever the QB is this year. Would I like to see Shanbour in extended game time? Absolutely. Would also love to see Isadore in a live game. Nobody knows what they have because the staff is sticking with Fine. 

When Fine got hurt, Morris came in immediately and looked better. Who's to say one of the other guys can't do the same

[edcollopy]

A big helper of the QB and the entire offense is the defense getting 3 and outs and creating short fields for the offense.  If we cause more turnovers and put our offense in a position to not have to go 80 yards for a score, we could see the playbook open more and scoring go up.  3 and outs and the effectiveness of an offense go hand in hand.

[Ben Gooding]

22 minutes ago, edcollopy said:

A big helper of the QB and the entire offense is the defense getting 3 and outs and creating short fields for the offense.  If we cause more turnovers and put our offense in a position to not have to go 80 yards for a score, we could see the playbook open more and scoring go up.  3 and outs and the effectiveness of an offense go hand in hand.

True. But Morris looked very serviceable vs Army while playing from behind the entire game and getting minimal reps because of Army's option offense. He was running a very predictable offense in that game out of necessity and was still having success. From what we saw throughout the year from Fine, that game would have been in the bag when we were down 24-7. 26/38 304 yards 3td 1 int is fantastic given we were down 24-7 at one point in this game. This should tell you that Army was pinning ears because they knew the ball was being put in the air. IMHO, Fine doesn't have the capability of this kind of success.