Is this the year?

emmitt01 · November 10, 2006

I know we're having fun with the coaching staff discussions and deciding whether Southern Miss is the most fertile recruiting ground for coaches in America but I wanna talk BCS. Who goes to the title game? Surely the winner of Mich/OSU will be there but who else? A look at the candidates:

Florida 8-1

Wins over Tennessee and Georgia, their 1 loss is to Auburn and they still have Florida State and South Carolina to play. Currently BCS #4.

Texas 9-1

Currently BCS #5, their 1 loss is to BCS #1 Ohio State, but who have they played? They have wins over #17 Oklahoma and #24 aTm but those rankings will fall as the season progresses. Then, they'll play a weak Big 12 North winner. Will they have the pull in the computer polls?

Auburn 9-1

BCS #6, 1 loss is to another 1 loss team in Arkansas, wins over Florida and LSU, still have Georgia to play. With a SEC title game win would that catapult them?

USC 7-1

BCS #7, blowout wins over Arkansas and Nebraska, their 1 loss is to Oregon State, may have the toughest road remaining of all of the 1 loss teams with games against Oregon, Cal, UCLA and Notre Dame.

Cal 7-1

BCS #8, started the season with a loss to Tennessee, remaining game against USC, will the "weak" Pac-10 hurt them?

Notre Dame 8-1

BCS #9, their 1 loss is to BCS #2 Michigan, win over #19 Georgia Tech, remaining game against USC. Are they too far down in the polls to make up the ground?

Arkansas 8-1

BCS #11, their 1 loss is to USC, they have a win over Auburn and games remaining against lSU and Tennessee plus the SEC title game.

Others of interest:

West Virginia- Loss to Louisville but a chance to beat "cinderella" Rutgers.

Rutgers- Will this be the year that the BCS locks out an undefeated BCS league team and puts a 1 loss team in the title game over them? Few are giving the Rutgers schedule much weight because they doubt the toughness of the Big East. Here's something to think about though. Louisville, the team Rutgers just beat, has offered to play 10 of the 12 SEC teams over the last five years...all of them have declined. I wonder why....

Loser of the Mich/OSU game- Their resume would include only a loss to the BCS #1 and wins over the rest of the Big Ten. Plus, Michigan would have the Notre Dame win and Ohio State would have the win over Texas. A rematch of a regular season game in the national title game?

Edited November 10, 2006 by emmitt01

CMJ · November 10, 2006

If Florida wins out, I say they go. If not....it could be just about any one of those schools. USC would make a helluva case if they won out. I don't see Texas because of the weakness of the Big XII in the computers this year. Auburn has to hope for 2 SEC losses of Arkansas to get in the SEC title game - which they would need to realisitcally jump Florida.

I don't see Cal-Berkely getting up that high, no Notre Dame. Arkansas is an interesting case, with some of the games left on their schedule mixed with some well timed losses of other schools.

After last night I'd really like Rutgers to enter the conversation, but I don't see it.

Edited November 10, 2006 by CMJ

LongJim · November 10, 2006

The door opened wider for the Horns last night. Having said that, they still need help to get to the MNC game, and I'm not speculating on it.

If tOSU beats Mich. handily, then things will get very interesting for Texas. Right now, I think Florida has as good a shot as anyone to go to the big game, but they need to keep winning.

Here's a breakdown (post Rutgers/Louisville) from "Porkey", who is a Longhorn math/statistician guy who knows as much about the BCS as anyone I've read:

*******************************************************

"USC: USC needs the least to get to the MNC, but their run is probably the most improbable, as they have to run the tables on Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame & UCLA, then have one of Auburn or Florida lose a game (which would happen if Auburn ended up in the SEC CG.

Texas: Texas simply needs (1) Michigan to drop at least 2-3 spots in the human polls, (2) Tennessee, LSU & Arkansas to beat up on each other (meaning, we don't want any of these teams to run the table, especially Arkie), (3) Arkie to not lose 2 of 3 games (which would put Auburn in the SEC CG), & (4) USC to lose a game. All of those things are probable, so Texas is in a good position.

Florida: Florida needs either (1) Auburn to lose AND Tennessee & LSU to run the tables, (2) Arkie to lose 2 games & then beat a 1-loss Auburn in the SEC CG or (3) Arkie to win out & then beat them in the SEC CG. If numbers 1 or 2 play out, Florida has the edge on the MNC. If #3 happens, then it's a horse race. But, as you can see, they're putting all their hope on Auburn to lose a game they shouldn't, Tennessee & LSU to win all their remaining games inspite of their poor play, & Arkansas to continue to overachieve mightily. Then, they have to go out and beat either the only team that's beaten them or beat a team that has beaten Auburn, Tennessee & LSU.

Auburn: Auburn has to have Arkansas lose 2 games & then they need to beat Florida in the SEC CG in order to have a chance. Without that, they're D-E-A-D!

Michigan (or tOSU): Michigan will still have an edge on us in most of the computer polls due to the Big 10 having a higher relative SOS than the Big XII. But, they'd need to fall no lower than 5th in the human polls to have a shot and no lower than 3rd to guarantee they hang onto #2.

After tonight's loss by Louisville, expect Florida, Auburn & USC to benefit slightly more than Texas."