A chink in the ACC armor? FSU determining buyout options

[SMU2006]

47 minutes ago, NT80 said:

They will negotiate themselves out early for a chance to join the SEC, just like uT and oU did from the Big12.  

ACC schools would gladly accept an instant extra $150m toward their programs. 

UT and OU negotiated out of a deal a whole one year early.

FSU is locked into the GoR for another 13 years.  Its not happening.

[NT80]

6 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

I agree it's a longshot. From what I've read, several programs have been trying to leave. Like @Green Otakusaid, once they pay the $100 mllion plus to leave, they then have to fight to get the media money for their own games until 2036. 

It will happen eventually.   If it's 2 years, 5 years, or the whole 13 years, the ACC will lose 3-5 schools, causing another domino effect in conferences again. 

 

[SMU2006]

2 hours ago, NT80 said:

It will happen eventually.   If it's 2 years, 5 years, or the whole 13 years, the ACC will lose 3-5 schools, causing another domino effect in conferences again. 

 

Predicting what will happen in 5-7 years with respect to realignment is a fool's errand.  No one had UT/OU to the SEC nor USC/UCLA to the B1G in 2017.  

If you're playing the odds the B1G is not going to expand until it can get a 100% no from Notre Dame.  As long as NBC is willing to give Notre Dame their sweetheart deal along with getting to play a unique, national schedule I don't think ND can be swayed (regardless of the monetary disadvantage).

If the B1G can get ND they will then turn their sights to UNC and UVA.  In all likelihood FSU and Clemson go to the SEC.  It is certainly possible the B1G raids the PAC for UW/Oregon but the Michigan and Ohio State AD's are both on record as saying they do not want anymore westward expansion.  Nothing about UW/Oregon has changed since last summer when they were there to be had along with USC/UCLA.  

This is why I believe there will be either a formal merger or alliance between the PAC and ACC.  Both are vulnerable to eventual expansion by the B1G and SEC so why not try to get out ahead of it now and secure landing spots for the likely programs that do not get selected for what will eventually be the Power 2?   After the PAC secures their media rights deal (again....its going to be announced to coincide with the PAC basketball tourney) I fully expect an announcement with the ACC to come shortly thereafter.

The endgame here is that in the next decade there is going to be a complete breakaway from the NCAA.  There will be a Power 2 of the SEC and B1G while the PAC/ACC and Big 12 will be on the second tier.  They will schedule each other exclusively all but eliminating a matchup with schools from the MWC, AAC, MAC, Sun Belt, CUSA.  I could see a consolidation of a few remaining G5's that have the funding/NIL to keep up the fight to form a "best of the rest" conference while most of the other conferences/programs will be relegated to what will essentially be Division 2.

[NT80]

1 hour ago, SMU2006 said:

This is why I believe there will be either a formal merger or alliance between the PAC and ACC.  Both are vulnerable to eventual expansion by the B1G and SEC so why not try to get out ahead of it now and secure landing spots for the likely programs that do not get selected for what will eventually be the Power 2?   After the PAC secures their media rights deal (again....its going to be announced to coincide with the PAC basketball tourney) I fully expect an announcement with the ACC to come shortly thereafter.

Is this like the last formal alliance between the PAC, ACC, and Big10?  

Soon after the alliance agreement the Big10 raided the PAC and took USC and UCLA.  Lol.

GREENSBORO, NC & ROSEMONT, IL & SAN FRANCISCO, CA – The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 today announced an historic alliance that will bring 41 world-class institutions together on a collaborative approach surrounding the future evolution of college athletics and scheduling.

https://pac-12.com/article/2021/08/24/pac-12-acc-and-big-ten-announce-historic-alliance-0

[Mike Jackson]

On 2/24/2023 at 4:27 PM, GMG_Dallas said:

I'm sure there's talks with those schools. Just goes to show money is once again more important than winning. Not sure what they have to gain athletically from being in the SEC. The kids already know their brands. The odds of being a conference champion and getting the automatic spot in the football playoffs is greatly reduced going from the ACC to the SEC. Instead they'll finish around 8-4 and on the outside looking in. All they gain is tv money.

These conferences and separate media rights are destroying college football.

I am afraid you are more right than even I imagine.  This "business only" mindset of basically turning FBS into a semi-pro league of under 60 teams will reduce revenue and viewership.  The NFL has a monopoly on a pro football league in the fall seeing the same  32 teams every week.  What make FBS Saturday different than NFL Sunday is a channel surfing between relevant games for 12 pm EST to at least 10 pm EST.   And what they forget also is that in super conference model casual interest in "blue Blood" teams after picking up loss 2 and/or 3 will be drastically reduced.  The value of a conference championship will be greatly reduced as multiple teams will have identical records with a lot of subjectivity interjected into their official finishing place in the conference:

 Super Conference member Washington and Penn State are both 9-3 overall and 7-2 in conference not good enough for the conference championship game.  They haven't played head to head.  Who is better? 

The next thing looming is that when the appeal of playing for anything but a big brand school is greatly diminished is a talent drain.  If these other pro-leagues are smart they will start to poach guys not quite good enough to start at Alabama about to transfer to come to their league.   

With all these moves they are viewing the fans unconnected with big brands as a capitive audience.  T-Shirt UT fans don't make Longhorns vs FCS on the Longhorn Network appointment TV.   And similarly when they are out of playoff consideration they won't be turning in to watch them play Vandy or Miss State.  And the inventory these outlets are buying will feature a lot more mediocre in conference games than games that have the combination of record and brand that produce the best numbers.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Mike Jackson

[untphd]

13 hours ago, NT80 said:

Is this like the last formal alliance between the PAC, ACC, and Big10?  

Soon after the alliance agreement the Big10 raided the PAC and took USC and UCLA.  Lol.

GREENSBORO, NC & ROSEMONT, IL & SAN FRANCISCO, CA – The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 today announced an historic alliance that will bring 41 world-class institutions together on a collaborative approach surrounding the future evolution of college athletics and scheduling.

https://pac-12.com/article/2021/08/24/pac-12-acc-and-big-ten-announce-historic-alliance-0

Great find.