Kiev Burning

[UNT90]

Come on...you wrote the book on pseudoscience, you're an expert in international diplomacy, you love Mexican food in FW, and you know how to run an athletic department. Just believe in yourself and there's no doubt in my mind you can learn apps, too.

I am quite the renaissance man, aren't I?

And I think you are quite the renaissance man for noticing, thank you.

[H-towngreen]

So some things happened in Ukraine today.

[Army of Dad]

Dutch jets escort Russian 'bombers' our of their airspace.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/23/world/europe/russian-bombers-intercepted/index.html

Probably reconnaissance aircraft and not really bombers, but shades of Cold War 'fun' in the skies of Europe.

[Army of Dad]

Ukraine at least attempting to regain some control.

http://m.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27138300

My personal favorite quote from Putin:

"If the regime in Kiev has begun using the army against the population inside the country, then this is undoubtedly a very serious crime."

Yeah, cause he would NEVER use the army against anyone inside his own country...

Edited April 24, 2014 by Army of Dad

[adman]

If you have a little time, take a gander at this site: http://www.globalfirepower.com

Lays out rankings of countries as it relates to their traditional military firepower etc. Some interesting figures.

In theory, the US could load all 10 of its carriers to capacity (130) with strikers/interceptors, steam over to Russia and enjoy a nearly 2-1 advantage in the sky while still having almost 1k strike aircraft in reserve.

[Cerebus]

You know what, screw this, I am not going to let someone else ruin this thread.

CWT:TR-MAD LIVES!!!!!


Fair warning, I tried, I really tried to reason with you people about keeping partisan bullshit out of it and that failed. So no more "Mr Nice Guy Lets All Hold Hands and Think About Our Feelings."

If you post any partisan crap, I will flame you as hard as a can. I will doubt your intelligence, I will call into question your lineage and genetic diversity, I will even drop the "F-Word" just to make KRAM swoon and get the vapors. Sometimes you have to hoist the black flag and slit throats.



So here's the deal, look at this line carefully:



Any partisan garbage posted ↑↑↑ABOVE↑↑↑this line never happened. It was all an illusion. Enjoy your new lease on life.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anything posted ↓↓↓BELOW↓↓↓ this line will be treated like a Russian oligarch questioning Putin.

I am nothing if not merciful. Right?

[Cerebus]

The Economist: Descent into darkness

FOR a brief moment it seemed that eastern Ukraine’s slide into conflict might be halted. A deal struck in Geneva on April 17th between Russia, the United States, the European Union and Ukraine called for illegally occupied buildings to be vacated and armed groups to give up their weapons. But Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk, brushed it off, saying that, since the Ukrainian government was illegal, only if it left its buildings would his people do so.

---

In eastern Ukraine, in short, the fog of war has descended. Social media amplify crazy claims by both sides and the truth is hard to determine. Some pro-Ukrainians have staged protests, but many are too scared to show their allegiance and just want to get on with their lives. There is no mass support for separation from Ukraine, says Ihor Todorov of Donetsk University, but there are some calling for “Putin to give a big salary and big pensions”. Asked if he wants Donetsk to remain part of Ukraine or not, Oleh, a local taxi driver, snaps: “I don’t care. I just want to be paid more.”

[Cerebus]

France24: Mayor in east Ukraineready ‘to turn Slaviansk into battlefield’

The self-proclaimed mayor of Slaviansk in Ukraine’s east remains firm on fighting any Kiev attempt to try to recapture the city, saying that he is prepared to turn the separatist stronghold into a battlefield if necessary.

Click on the above link to see the video report, I had issues trying to embed it.

[Cerebus]

The Telegraph: Vladimir Putin orders military exercise on Ukraine border after killings

Ukraine forces kill up to five separatists in 'anti-terror operation' in Slavyansk as Russia starts drill
---
Ukrainian forces appear to be closing in around Slaviansk, a city of 130,000 which has become a military stronghold for the pro-Russian movement and is entirely controlled by separatist fighters.
---
Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, said the deployment of military forces in east Ukraine by the Kiev authorities was a crime against its own people that will "have consequences".

"If Kiev really began to use the army against the country's population... that is a very serious crime against its own people," Putin said.

If the pro-West Kiev authorities are resorting to force, "it is of course some kind of junta," he said.

This is is the Standard Putin Response Plan in action.

1) Create a volatile atmosphere.
2) Claim you have to use force to calm that atmosphere.
3) Use the "necessary measures" to further your exterior goals and quell unrest at home.


The "mayor" does seem intent on creating enough carnage to make sure there is an excuse for Putin to step in to protect a Russian speaking minority.


ITAR-SASS: Sloviansk self-defense militants redeploy to city’s downtown

Federalization supporters are expecting the next attack of Ukrainian army’s servicemen

Militants and armored vehicles of the Sloviansk self-defense units have been redeployed to the city’s downtown. Deputy commander said on a briefing that special services’ and army units are currently throwing a cordon around the city.
Rossiya 24 TV channel reports that Sloviansk is almost completely blocked: it is possible to enter the city only from the east, from the side of Donetsk.

The reader should not that ITAR-SASS is semi-fake news agency funded and run by the Russian government that has as much freedom of opinion as Pravda did under the soviets. None. They report what Putin wants.

[Cerebus]

MASHABLE: Pro-Russian Militants Confirm Capture of Vice Journalist Simon Ostrovsky

A spokeswoman with the pro-Russian insurgents in Sloviansk, Ukraine, confirmed on Wednesday that they have captured Vice News reporter Simon Ostrovsky and are holding him hostage.

"He's with us. He's fine," Stella Khorosheva told The Associated Press, adding, "(We) need to be careful because this is not the first time we're dealing with spies."

---

Perhaps more worrisome, the spokeswoman said that the militants had planned the journalist's kidnapping.

“We knew where he was going and the men manning the checkpoint were told to look out for him," Khorosheva said of Ostrovsky.

---

Speaking to the Russian outlet Gazeta.ru, Vyacheslav Ponomarev said, "We won't release Ostrovsky any time soon. We need hostages — small change to trade with Kiev."

---

State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki condemned the journalist's kidnapping in a statement issued later on Tuesday. “We are deeply concerned about the reports of a kidnapping of a U.S. citizen journalist in Slovyansk [sic], Ukraine, reportedly at the hands of pro-Russian separatists,"

If you are a fan of Vice like me, then you have seen Simon report from all over the world, and you know these claims of him of being a spy are nothing but an excuse to hold a human shield.

[Cerebus]

Looks like the Ukrainians are going forth with the military operations despite all the Russian warnings.

Tweets from the area this morning:

Ukraine mil op is running. Airborne unit with tanks sets up checkpoint outside Slovyansk. Checking trunks. Low key. pic.twitter.com/PpeSQR0iTB

— William Booth (@BoothWilliam)

April 24, 2014

UA special forces now positioning to open road to #slavyansk 1st shots heard #Ukraine

— Pierre Crom (@PierreCrom)

April 24, 2014

Ukraine helicopter just flew over our heads dropping leaflets warning citizens to avoid demos & beware Russian agents pic.twitter.com/6joVbBv9CW

— William Booth (@BoothWilliam)

April 24, 2014

Edited April 24, 2014 by Cerebus

[Cerebus]

A look at the level of Pro Russian agitation in Eastern Ukraine.



Let us compare that to the linguistic map I posted all the way back on page 1:




Despite Putin's claim that this is all based on protecting Russian speakers, it's clear that areas with low % of Russian speakers are also being targeted, and that some with a high % are being ignored.

This is about opening a land route to Crimea.

ETA: Crimea and the breakaway parts of Moldova.

Edited April 24, 2014 by Cerebus

[Cerebus]

Video of a huge column of Russian military vehicle being moved from Rostov-on-Don to the Donetsk border:

[Cerebus]

More from Slovainsk, the region that Ukraine has launched an offensive and the "mayor" has vowed to turn into a battlefield:

Self-proclaimed mayor of #Sloviansk, shows up at separatist checkpoint. Yells at journalists to "Get out!" #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/2Mc4scPZqj

— Douglas Herbert (@dougf24)

April 24, 2014

Pro #Russia militia set barricades on fire to repel #Ukraine APCs. Ukraine army retreated & fire service called. pic.twitter.com/FXC3jY1rCv

— Harriet Salem (@HarrietSalem)

April 24, 2014

Pavel, a pro-Russian separatist mans a smoking barricade 5kms outside #Sloviansk after standoff w #Ukraine APCs. pic.twitter.com/9kOFNb1GER

— Douglas Herbert (@dougf24)

April 24, 2014

.@MVS_UA: Ministry troops in anti-terror op "destroyed 3 checkpoints" in #Slavyansk, "5 terrorists killed" http://t.co/QxxcCLujgL #Ukraine

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM)

April 24, 2014

Just drove through centre of Sloviansk. Relatively calm. Traffic on roads, people on streets. Noticed several pro Russia armed foot patrols.

— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR)

April 24, 2014

Sign warns of landmines in forest at edge of Slovyansk. #ukraine

A photo posted by C.J. Chivers (@cjchivers) on Apr 24, 2014 at 6:05am PDT

Edited April 24, 2014 by Cerebus

[Cerebus]

I know I missed a couple days, probably quite a bit of reading material above.

Anyone have any questions? Thoughts?

[Cerebus]

More videos of Russian mobilization near the border:

[Cerebus]

Simon Ostrovsky has been freed:

Urgent: l'otage @SimonOstrovsky libre et en sécurité avec moi dans voiture en route vers Donetsk @RadioCanadaInfo pic.twitter.com/jAEW0aqvQw

— J-Francois Belanger (@belangerjf)

April 24, 2014

And now I have to go to lunch, if anything amazing happens, feel free to post.

Edited April 24, 2014 by Cerebus

[UNT90]

How long do you think we are away from the enevitable Russian invasion? Days? Weeks? Minutes?

[H-towngreen]

How long do you think we are away from the enevitable Russian invasion? Days? Weeks? Minutes?

Same question. Russia creates problem, force Ukraine to respond, Russia says I can't believe they did that and we will not stand for it.

Crimea all over again. Ukraine can't stand up against Russia, other countries do nothing, maybe throw some sanctions Russia's way. Rinse and repeat.

[UNT90]

I think the delay is only because Russia is taking this time to evaluate what penalties they will face (if any) from the international community and to gauge how far they can go (Eastern Ukraine only? All of Ukraine?) with the invasion.

Edited April 24, 2014 by UNT90

[forevereagle]

I think the delay is only because Russia is taking this time to evaluate what penalties they will face (if any) from the international community and to gauge how far they can go (Eastern Ukraine only? All of Ukraine?) with the invasion.

They may also be allowing (forcing) things to escalate to the point where they feel they have a stronger case to intervene.

Edited April 24, 2014 by forevereagle

[UNT90]

They may also be allowing (forcing) things to escalate to the point where they feel they have a stronger case to intervene.

Without a doubt, and gauging international reaction to that forcing at the same time.

[Cerebus]

Yes, Putin is waiting for the pot to come to full boil so that he can say he is "forced" to send troops to calm the situation.

Let's assume these points as axiomatic:

• The EU, NATO, and the US will not use force counter Russian aggression in non-NATO countries.
• The EU will not consider major sanctions for the annexation of any part of non NATO countries because of reliance on Russian Oil and Gas.
• Without EU support, US sanctions CAN NOT be hard enough to force policy change in Moscow.

What we are left with is a situation where Putin is going to take as much of the former (non NATO) USSR back as he wants. He will either do that by economic pressure and backing local elites, like in Belarus, or he will use force when needed (Georgia, Crimea, soon the Eastern Ukraine and the breakaway province of Moldova.)

I want everyone to consider this a fait accompli. I know this isn't popular, but the real world is the real world and this is what is going to happen. Putin has been able to position the EU in such a way that they can not risk losing Russian O&G. Russia's O&G is a fungible commodity. There is nothing the US can do on it's own. If we placed a ban on working with Russian O&G, the commodity would find another market. If we placed a ban on capital moving to Russia, the Chinese would step in. Before you bash Obama understand he is in the same position Bush was during the Georgia operations.

So what can we do now? Is it hopeless? No. One of two things must happen:

1. The EU must be so outraged by Russian action that they are willing to throw their own economies under the bus for 2 to 3 years while then ween themselves off of R O&G. I don't see that as likely.
2. The US and EU must work together to bring American O&G to EU markets, and to jump start development of EU O&G resources, which do exist, but which have not been worked because of environmental concerns. This is the course of action.

Look, leave the environmental concerns to another thread, the present day geopolitical reality is that the dependence on Russian O&G is a major hamstring to the expansion and development of western style democracy in eastern Europe. Only by moving those countries to a more western worldview will we be able to curtail Russian influence in the region.

On a more global scale, there are dozens of countries who have the ability to develop into democracies within the next few decades. Many of them are in Africa and Asia. If they see the triumph of democracy in Eastern Europe, they will be emboldened to follow the same path.

That is the real gambit. Demographically, Russia is boned. They are on the brink of a steep downturn. In 30 years they will no longer be within super power contention, that contest will between the US/India/China . However, if they stunt the growth of democracies, that will be a major blow.

[H-towngreen]

So the rest of Ukraine is next, what other territories or country's are in deck?

[Cerebus]

So the rest of Ukraine is next, what other territories or country's are in deck?

Anyone who isn't in NATO and borders them is at risk. Of course, how many will they roll troops into? Probably not many, once they see the writing on the wall they will be much more receptive to Russian demands.