Breakdown: North Texas vs Louisiana Lafayette

[Mean_Green09]

My thoughts on tomorrow nights game.

http://tmgbr.com/2013/03/07/the-breakdown-8/

Projected Starters

Louisiana Lafayette

G Elfrid Payton 15.8 ppg 5.6 rpg 5.4 apg

G Alan-Micha Thompson 8.5 ppg

G Bryant Mbamalu 13.7 ppg 3.7 rpg

F Shawn Long 15.8 ppg 10.3 rpg 2.0 bpg

F Elridge Moore 5.0 ppg 3.8 rpg

North Texas

G Alzee Williams, JR 11.1 ppg 3.4 rpg

F Jordan Williams, SO 14.0 ppg 3.7 rpg

F Niko Stojiljkovic, SR 2.5 ppg 2.2 rpg

F Roger Franklin, SR 11.6 ppg 6.0 rpg

F Tony Mitchell, SO 13.1 ppg 8.4 rpg 2.7 bpg

Previous Matchup’s

December 1 Louisiana Lafayette 80-64 North Texas

January 31 Louisiana Lafayette 105-74 North Texas

Mean Green Offense vs Ragin Cajun Defense

North Texas comes into this match-up averaging 67 ppg which ranks them at 201^st in the nation. Add that on to their 41% fg percentage which ranks 270^th in the nation. So it’s safe to say that UNT is not going to light the scoreboard up. Even in their most efficient games UNT has only put up around 75 points this year. In order for UNT to win they have to maximize their possessions and limit the turnovers. Louisiana Lafayette isn’t the stoutest of defenses out there so UNT will be able to score the ball that I’m sure of. What I’m not sure of is the Tony Mitchell factor. Lafayette has had the big man figured out for the past two seasons. This year Mitchell has average a meager 5 ppg and 4.5 rbg and 4.5 fouls per game against the Cajuns. Not the stats you would expect from a preseason All-American. Tony needs to use his athleticism in this game and attack from the outside in. I say this because you can be sure every time Mitchell gets a paint touch the Cajun are going to collapse around him. By Mitchell attacking off the dribble it sets up for his teammates like Jordan Williams and Roger Franklin to cut to the basket and get open looks. Mitchell can be effective in this game even he doesn’t put up big numbers. He can get his teammates involved early and often.

Mean Green Defense vs Ragin Cajun Offense

The Cajuns want to get out and push the tempo. They like to get up a lot of shots. Against UNT this year they have averaged 62 shots attempted and 20 3 points shots each game. Add those to getting at least 20 free throws each game and well you’re bound to put up some points. UNT can’t let the Cajuns get up a big volume of shots. The reason is UNT does not have the offensive efficiency to keep pace with the Cajuns. They can ill afford to let this game turn into a track meet. UNT will need to keep the Cajuns in the 60’s (points) if they want to have a chance to win. In each of their 19 losses Lafayette is averaging 65 ppg. Against UNT this year they are averaging 93 ppg so UNT must do a good job in limiting shot opportunities. Whoever is guarding Elfrid Payton will need to stay in front of the electric point guard. He is the guy with the keys to car for Lafayette. Also a big must is for Tony Mitchell to stay out of foul trouble. UNT needs his athleticism in this game big time. Often you see Tony get saddled with foul trouble early and he loses his aggressiveness.

How I would attack

The great thing about the motion offense is that you’re not tied to a certain position. What I mean is that just because I’m a forward doesn’t mean that every time I have to be on the block posting up. I would tell Tony Mitchell and my guys to look for a post entry off the fast break if it’s not there then we need to go to an open set. So what I would like to see is an open lane (middle of the floor). I don’t want my guys clogging it up. I know that Lafayette wants to sag in the paint and force us to beat them with jump shots. That’s all fine and well I know that I can’t win unless I can make shots anyways. What I can force them to do is defend for 30 seconds and look for my right shot. If I know they are sagging what’s the point of throwing up a 3 early in the shot clock? I know I can get that shot anytime against them. Instead I’m going move the ball quickly and look for that open short to mid range shot or use the dribble drive to create an easy shot. I would want guys like Hardwick and Jones to use the drive to draw the defense in and have one of my others guys cutting in along the baseline for an easy lob or layup. Often when you get that sag it almost turns into a zone so the goal becomes getting two guys on you. The open set allows for the open lane to drive and allows for the cut to be harder to guard. If I’m sagging I can easily lose track of my man if I’m forced to help on a dribble drive which in turns allows my guy to attack. The key is to be patient and look for a good shot. I would want my guys to remember just because your open doesn’t mean that it’s a good shot.

Prediction:

Lafayette and North Texas have had two very similar seasons this year. You would label both as a disappointment. North Texas has probably had the more disappointing of the two, but that can all change. What scares me the most in this game is Lafayette’s ability to score 94^th overall in the country. Can North Texas keep them in check and not let the game turn into a track meet? Can Tony Mitchell start to play like the man we all know him to be? Can North Texas find its unsung hero like Jacob Holmen was last year? Can North Texas continue to get better? North Texas ended the season playing its best basketball of the season which has led me to believe that they have a fighting chance in this game. They just need to continue to get better and play Tony Benford basketball. Be aggressive and physical challenge Lafayette at every turn and grind it out. I see this game as being close all the way through. Tournament games always have that feel of added pressure. Every shot and possession becomes more important. In order to move on you need to play like every possession is your last. Hot Springs has been good to North Texas for the most part in years past except for that last hurdle. I see that same good charm continuing this year. I believe North Texas will dig deep and find a way to win. My unsung hero will be Niko Stojiljkovic. I think he is going to make a huge play down the stretch that will turn the game in UNT’s favor.

North Texas 67 Louisiana Lafayette 66

Edited March 7, 2013 by Mean_Green09

[Harry]

Good take there. Enjoyed reading it. Hope you are right about the close win for the good guys.

[foutsrouts]

Long and Mitchell have just got to reverse their numbers this time around. Long killed us in all areas of the game the first two times, and Mitchell basically did nothing. I sure hope we have a plan. A new and improved plan.