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[GMoney]

Coaches should follow heat -- before the fall starts

March 20, 2007

By Gary Parrish

CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer

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http://www.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/story/10071660/1

South Alabama's John Pelphrey is a finalist for the South Florida job. If it's offered and the money is right and the contract is long and his family likes Tampa, then he should accept the position and immediately hire movers.

Tubby Smith? He was once hot, but is now ice cold in Kentucky. (Getty Images)

A jump from the Sun Belt to the Big East is a big jump, in both prestige and tax bracket. Plus, it would be fun to compete in a league on national television multiple times a week, and matching wits with mentor Rick Pitino could be special on some level.

Want more reasons Pelphrey should go?

I could list 10, easy.

But there is only one reason that matters, and it's more about Pelphrey's profession than Pelphrey himself. Even if he's unsure whether it would be the right career move -- that's the word, by the way -- Pelphrey should go because he's a college basketball coach, and it's hard to imagine a more fragile business. One day you are lauded, the next day you are loathed. So the smartest thing to do is move while you're hot because you won't stay hot long.

Few stay hot long.

As proof, I submit Rod Barnes.

You might remember Barnes as the tactician coach at Mississippi, a remarkably pleasant man who led his alma mater to a 27-win season and trip to the Sweet 16 in 2001. For his work, Barnes was named the Naismith National Coach of the Year. Five years later he was run out of Oxford and reduced to assisting Jeff Capel at Oklahoma. This week, he became a head coach again ... at Georgia State.

Kentucky's Tubby Smith won the Naismith in 2003.

Now his fans hate him.

Illinois' Bruce Weber won the Naismith in 2005.

Now his fans hate him.

Then there's the story of Larry Eustachy, the Associated Press National Coach of the Year in 2000 at Iowa State. Three years later he was fired for partying with college students. Two years after that he resurfaced at Southern Mississippi.

That's a big fall.

Then there's the story of Matt Doherty, the Associated Press National Coach of the Year in 2001 at North Carolina. Two years later he was fired for not winning enough. One year after that he resurfaced at Florida Atlantic. Now he's at SMU.

That's a big fall.

Then there's the story of Dan Dakich, and boy is it a great story. He was offered the West Virginia job in 2002 after building Bowling Green into one of the better mid-majors. He accepted, then backed out and returned to Bowling Green a hero, at least temporarily. Last week he resigned under pressure, and if he's lucky, Dakich will be an assistant somewhere soon making a fraction of what he would have made in his first season at West Virginia.

Again, big fall.

So the point is simple, and it should be a lesson for Pelphrey and all other desirable coaches -- guys like Winthrop's Gregg Marshall, Washington State's Tony Bennett, Wright State's Brad Brownell and Southern Illinois' Chris Lowery. They are each hot names now, but there is no guarantee they will be hot names one year from now. Next season Darrin Horn might win big at Western Kentucky, and he'll be the hot name. Or Tim Jankovich might win big at Illinois State, and he'll be the hot name. Or some guy you've never heard of will lead a school you've never heard of to the Elite Eight, and he'll be the hot name.

Consequently, it's crucial to take the money when you can because the money might not be there in 12 months. Perceptions change with every win or loss, and the same man who was labeled a rising star in 2007 can be described as a sinking ship in 2008 regardless of common sense suggesting he's probably not any different one way or another.

That's why Stan Heath was smart.

He has had one truly impressive season as a coach, and it came when he led Kent State to the Elite Eight in 2001-02. Naturally, Heath was labeled the next great thing, and now he's a millionaire because Frank Broyles used piles of cash to lure him to Arkansas. Fast-forward to present day and some boosters would reportedly love to use piles of cash to make Heath leave Arkansas. Why? Because the same people who thought Heath was brilliant now believe he's not brilliant, which makes him like roughly 90 percent of all other coaches.

As it stands, Billy Gillispie is great, and if Kentucky needs a replacement for Smith -- and it can't get Florida's Billy Donovan -- a large segment of the fan base would love UK to pursue the Texas A&M coach. But if Jeremy Hunt scores 25 points Thursday and leads Memphis to a win over the Aggies in the Sweet 16, suddenly John Calipari will be great, and then he'll be the object of Kentucky fans' obsession while Gillispie is called overrated.

It's silly, for sure.

But it's an undeniable reality.

Opinions of college coaches swing wildly these days. So if I'm Pelphrey or Lowery or pretty much anybody I'm spending the next week searching for the best job available for the biggest paycheck. That would be the smart move. And in the coaching business it's imperative to make the smart move while you're still smart because nobody thinks you're smart very long.

But don't take my word for it.

Just ask Dan Dakich.

If you can find him.