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Pavlovs Eagle

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Pavlovs Eagle last won the day on September 1 2018

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About Pavlovs Eagle

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  • Birthday August 13

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    Plano, TX

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  1. I was momentarily excited to see a tan full brim hat with UNT branding on the bottom shelf... Unfortunately, it appears it's just a poorly merchandised section.
  2. In regards to our SBA loans... They did end up coming through. We had one that wasn't what anyone would consider to be done/final when the news came through that the SBA round 1 was one was out of money. The our bank for that business assured us it was approved and it did fund a few days later. That ended up being for our better funded venture, so we were prepared to not get it. Overall, the restaurant companies you saw giving it back... they are public companies and their disclosures gave them away. The amounts Ruth's, Shake Shake, Potbelly, and J Alexander's took on a per unit basis was no where near the max they could have requested based on what I'd guestimate their payrolls are at each location. My businesses are somewhere between Parton's and Shake Shake in revenues. Shake Shake only drew 10m for a 150+ unit business. My revenues and headcounts are a small fraction of theirs and my two businesses were eligible to draw a 3rd of that amount. I say that to show that Shake Shack may have said "we feel so bad and we saw all of you social media shaming us" but the real reason I'd guess they returned that, is the amount of oversight it will take them to administer that $10m in funds with any chance of getting it forgiven is probably not worth the time for a successful public company like them. The PPP money didn't exactly come with an easy to use manual. I've been able to put people back to work. I have sincere concern with how sustainable it is to keep payrolls at the PPP infused levels past the 8 weeks defined in the PPP. I sincerely hope people attempt to get the country rolling in some measurable fashion in the next 6-7 weeks. If not you will see businesses probably re-furlough employees that were put back to work with PPP money. If I don't see business back to some semblance of normalcy (down negative teens or better) by August I will possibly be looking at a Chapter 11 reorg of one of our businesses. It would probably be irresponsible of me to try to get cash infusion without using bankruptcy to gain some more favorable terms. If you had asked me in Jan/Feb if I though Chapter 11 was in store for any of our business I would have laughed. I'd personally love to hear the rationale why the Feds decided that the Banks needed to be the gate keepers on the SBA loans to start. The SBA would tell you that it's not their fault the banks weren't prepared for the onslaught of requests, and the banks will tell you that the SBA didn't adequately prepare them for the amount of traffic that would be thrust into a system where many bank branches were shut and a good number of employees were furloughed. I have a vendor who told me someone at the SBA told him banks would be open and accepting applications 1 min after midnight day one. This guy went to his bank branch at midnight and of course found it closed, and a note on the door saying the branch was closed due to C19. That story is all too representative of the experiences I've heard personally from many other business owners and on the news from the talking heads panic mongers. Is it football season yet?
  3. Honestly if there's a football season it will be interesting to see who still comes to the Hub Club. I'd say the average age of Hub Club ticket holder is in their early 60's. Has to be 10+ years older than the average for the bowl seats.
  4. I have a family member who is a traveling doctor and currently working in a hospital in a medium sized midwest town. He was texting me about my recent experiences with my business and went on to say they staffed up their hospital and then have had almost no C19 or upper respiratory patients. He was quick to say "that could change" but he was clearly surprised by their current predicament. Just one person's experience, but interesting none the less. No elective surgeries will sink many of hospitals that aren't part of huge hospital networks. No where to spread the losses to if you're a single hospital operator.
  5. 75% of the loan proceeds must go to payroll costs. 25% is the limit on the amount you can use for rent/Utilities/mortgage interest/cams. Of that 75% used for payroll expense, there's some much more specific language on guaranteeing a certain percentage of the staff's original salary. It is specific to specifying a previous period of time and comparing it that employee's expense during that period (this is the part many aren't reading through). No personal guarantee is needed, but criminal prosecution (federal crime I assume) is laid out in case any desperate owner wants to star in an episode of American Greed. https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loans/coronavirus-relief-options/paycheck-protection-program-ppp#section-header-5 If your brother is a SMB owner I'd read up and apply. He can work through whoever he has a business banking relationship with. If that bank has loaned him money, he's probably higher on the list for help than just business checking users (the bank has incentive to keep those with other loans outstanding propped up). Take the money if you qualify. At worst, it's fairly inexpensive debt that can be refi'ed into more traditional debt when the note comes due. At best, its free money that you don't have to repay if spent per the letter of the non-repayment rules. If the treasury wants to flood the market with more fiat currency to help prop us all up during their mandated ceasing of commerce, be my guest.
  6. Received our SBA money for one of our businesses today after scooting by last week's payroll by barely the seat of our pants. Expecting the other business's check to arrive next week, not hugely important because it's better funded. Talked to some industry contacts in my world. Many are taking the checks with no intention of following the guidelines for repayment. They're just planning to refi the debt in 24 months when it comes due. I am doing everything in my power to avoid the repayment. The 25% rule on Rent/Utilities/CAMS really sucks though. I can't even get some of our landlords on the phone to tell them they shouldn't expect April's rents. I'll just deal with it when the default letters show. The larger landlords have fired so many people they can't keep up with the call volumes from tenants and they've canned many of the property managers who were the boots on the ground to padlock front doors. Hope no one has any investments in CMBS.
  7. As the leader of the team he should volunteer a good portion if not all of his $1m+ salary to help bolster the finances of the dept. The whole coaching staff and everyone else on the payroll should take some level of cuts with it being dependent on their level in the Athletic Dept. We did it with our company, and those of us at the top took the most substantial cuts to help make sure there was something left to scale up in the coming months.
  8. Thank you Rick. The first week or two after the bottom dropped out (March 16th forward) I can't count the amount of times I sat down in my car in the evening after leaving the office and just breaking down in tears over this. Hundreds of employees and families depend on our business to put food on the table, a roof over their head, and clothes on their backs. We have weathered bad years, natural disasters, etc. But the safety net systems aren't built for the government to restrict commerce entirely. And leave it up to our career politicians to be surprised that a business can't be all expenses with no revenue, and shocked by unemployment numbers and shrugging off claims of a incoming depression. Alot of marketing depts in America were putting on a good face about "taking care of their number one asset: the employee" the 3rd and 4th weeks of March, but it was clear a lot of companies in every industry were about to have to get rid of much of their workforce by the first weeks of April. Most of my days now are indistinguishable from the day before and after. I knew tomorrow was Thursday because the neighbors had their trashcans in the alley for Thursday trash day when I got home from the office tonight (yes, I still go daily even though I told everyone else to work from home. I can focus on the task at hand better). It's all crisis mitigation calls, staffing calls, running our cash, talking to the bank, etc. Our one business who still is waiting on the bank to submit the PPA paperwork will run out of money by Friday afternoon. We have a commitment from the bank for a bridge loan till the PPA money comes in, hopefully that funds by Thursday... At worse our other business can loan it money, or the investor group will kick in more cash to not see their original $15m go up in smoke. I don't doubt the COVID-19 is bad, but Dallas county with 2m people has 20 deaths and less than 1500 cases. I personally have furloughed or laid off hundreds and reduced the pay of those of us left between 5% all the way to 30% (depends on salary and title). I have watched people weep from losing their jobs and wondering how they'll pay their bills and I've also had people thank profusely for "sparing" their position from a layoff or furlough. None of this is right. I would say I generally support Trump, but I do not agree with him when he says there pent up demand and this will come roaring back. Maybe in 2022... The unemployed Americans will have a lasting ripple affect all the way up the economy for the next 12-18 months. Sorry to rattle on. Haven't looked at GMG since basketball was taken and this all started. Was a good release today reading it for 15 mins. Stay safe, stay employed.
  9. I could lead a symposium on how the Payroll Protection Act is a giant CF. We've submitted for one of our companies for the 2nd time (first app was complicated by multiple LLC's), and we're waiting on our other bank to submit the 2nd business's application. I bet G Brint gets richer off of this from a consulting standpoint. I know the Big 4 guys will for sure have consultants immediately transitioned to the PPA. I have no idea how the government will actually audit this down to the employee level in regards to who we were supposed to make sure the compensation is "protected" on. I assume it's all self policing for the time being. Since I mostly need to protect the pay of employees who were here during the look back period, I actually will end up shuffling around our staffing in such a way it will probably appear externally that I'm laying off or furloughing MORE people. There a lots of people who will take the money and be on the hook for the payback. I personally don't intend to lose a single dollar that could be forgiven. The rules a very specific and the generic rules that the news and even some vendors are floating around are just a glimpse of everything you have to consider to qualify for the loan forgiveness. Quite a mess we've gotten this country into.
  10. Collin County Community College to C-USA confirmed.
  11. They wasted no time taking my money this year... I expected them to offer more than a month extra (considering there's little competition for seats at Apogee), but it appears a month extra was all we're allowed.
  12. Sure did... Our AR and creative agency were among the first rounds of cuts.
  13. The media control over this country is impressive. Our PR agency just gave us some advice that may put us out of business without even hinting that it could negatively affect the trajectory of the business. I may reach out and let them know we'll start paying them a percentage of sales once we implement their advice.
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