McK

I got bailed on, too. Have an extra ticket for sec. 203, row 9.

I also do not understand this need to stand for all, or even most, of a game. That was not the case for me on the press box side of Fouts last SAT night, but I have been to games (as at UT) where those on the front row refuse to sit down and therefore everyone behind them has no choice if they want to see. Maybe I wouldn't think it so bad if I did not have degenerative joint disease, which makes it almost impossible for me to stand for 2 or 3 hours; but standing in one place is even harder than walking for me. It may or may not be related that I am more the analyzing type of fan than one who yells an opinion about every play and hisses every call that goes against 'my' team. But it's hard to see how to make special sections for the calm sitters as opposed to the wild standers. So maybe we just have to concede that sports are really more for the latter.

Ball St. 33 N. Texas 26 This is just out of nowhere. I know nothing about Ball St. other than they were 10-2 in MAC last year.

I just got back home, and I would say it looked like a very fundamental scrimmage. The defenses looked better than the offenses, but the offenses did not execute well overall. RD ran the zone read play better than he passed, but the wind was a factor. The offensive line looked bigger than last year's, and the linebackers attacked well. I would definitely say this is going to be an improved team over Dodge's first 2, once it gets more in sync.

It has taken a while for me to find last year's Dave Campbell's Texas Football, but I finally found it to compare last year's stat projections to actual stats. TFb had Meager passing 150 for 275, 1700 yards, 14 TD's and 8 int's; Vizza 125 for 200, 1400 yards, 10 TD's, 4 int's. Meager's actual numbers were 107 for 169, 1088 yards, 4 TD's, 8 int's; and Vizza's were 223 for 383, 2388 yards, 17 TD's and 20 int's. Other than very significant miss of the interceptions, that was quite close. Obviously Vizza played more, and Meager less, than expected, but in their combined projections-- 275 for 475, 3100 yards, 24 TD's, 12 int's-- compare well (less the int's) with their actuals: 330 for 552, 3476 yards, 21 TD's, 28 int's. Hopefully wiser and more mature play will lead to less mistakes, which should be the case, even if it means less yards, as an incompletion is better than an interception, and driving is overall better than a quick score or a quick out. For running back, Thomas was projected: 200 carries for 1000 yards and 8 TD's. His actual was 112 carries for 666 yards and 8 TD's. But the top 2 RB's came close (though it was Mosley, not Deavan Cox in 2nd))-- proj.: 250 carries for 1200 yards, 10 TD's; actual: 206 carries for 1127 yards, 13 TD's. For WR's, Jackson's projections: 75 catches for 900 yards, 8 TD's; and Fitzgerald's were 45 catches, 450 yards, 4 TD's. Actual: Jackson-- 79 catches for 784 yards, 1 TD; Fitzgerald-- 111 catches for 1322 yards, 12 TD's. So combined, projections were: 120 catches, 1350 yards, 12 TD's; actual: 190 catches, 2106 yards, 13 TD's. Again, UNT could afford more incompletions for less interceptions, though these stats do show the potential. So total offense, based on the top 2 passers and top 2 rushers-- projection: 725 plays for 4300 yards, 34 TD's; actual: 758 plays, 4603 yards, 34 TD's. The projected # of offensive TD's was right on target; but the projection was one TD per 126.5 yards, and the actual was one TD per 135.4 yards. This is relevant, basing it on these less-than-complete stats because they represented 93.9% of the total offense, and the projections were within 93.4% of the actual for total offense-- excellent in comparison to individual stats projections. So... for this year the offensive projections, on the same basis, are: 360 of 605 passes for 4070 yards, 21 TD's, 18 int's; and 225 rushing attempts for 975 yards and 8 TD's-- total offense, then: 830 plays for 4995 yards and 29 TD's. Or, within the 93% range: 4645 yards to 5370 yards. And if the rate of one TD per 135 yards continues or improves-- 34 to 39 TD's. That seems to be shorting the offense of scoring, considering the projected 29 TD's, and/or projecting there will be no "wiser" use of opportunities on the offense. On that I hope they're wrong. Defensive stats are not projected the same way in TFB, but they are implied by the # of plays by the offense, which is projected to improve (they better).

Dodge was an assistant at NT, but he didn't start as a grad asst. and stay there for 16 years before becoming the head coach, like Paterno. But if the question is limited to tenure, he will have to stay til he's 90 to match Paterno, as of now; not likely. Nevertheless, if he has a winning season and continues to win for many years, in the abstract he may be "UNT's Joe Paterno." But if he would leave SL Carroll for UNT, surely if he is successful he would leave UNT for...Texas A&M? AZ St.? Iowa?...

I just did a random survey of Div. 1A head coaches who began at their current programs in recent years-- 35 in all, from perennially ranked teams to perennial '2nd division' teams-- and the result is that more than twice as many coaches improve their team's record in their 2nd season over their first as drop off... it's 20 that improved; 8 got worse; 7 stayed the same (including where the difference was just a half-game). Obviously, it's more likely a team had a 'bad' record at the time of a new coach's hiring, and that may explain much of the Year 2 results-- seldom is a coach given just a single season to show W-L improvement, and up is more likely than down even if there were no coaching change. So that's why these writers' projections have UNT winning 4, maybe 5, games in '08. But the intangible is the true worth of the coach. While Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, and Urban Meyer all won NC's in their 2nd year, and Pete Carroll and Les Miles came close in their 2nd and won it their 3rd, it's notable that all those guys took the helm of a program with a deep-rooted winning tradition, so the name of the school itself already drew in top players. While UNT doesn't compare in that way, perhaps it can be likened more to Miles and Mike Gundy at Oklahoma St., or Hal Mumme at NM St.-- teams at a historical disadvantage to their competition, but they brought in new offensive systems and improved by 3-4 games in Year 2. So while UNT made drastic improvemnet in offense in '07, while its defense was anomalously bad, and there were still perhaps 7 games that could have gone either way (including the 2 wins) with an 'average' UNT defense, I think the improvement will be better than as few as 2 or 3 wins in '08. Defense again will be the biggest question, but it can hardly be worse this year, and may be markedly better with the new coordinator. But even with just the offense improving with a more experienced line and a better understanding of Dodge's system-- and either a more mature QB, or one more experienced in his system-- that should be worth a couple of games. So I think UNT will win 6 games this year. Any better than that depends depends on the intangible worth of the coach; if he bucks the trend and shows that he's 'got it' at the college (at least SLC) level as well as HS, this could be the real break-out year.

I appreciate your reports, but isn't pathetic a little strong word to use on a high school player in an all star game? I used that word only to describe his performances on the punt return team; and it's alright if you think it's "a little strong," but I assure it's not a dishonest opinion. Once he dropped back, the punt was taken for a return, and he just stood there 15 yard upfield and watched the returner get blasted, then a return team guy sees him and knocks him down. And, as I said, he may have talent and didn't take the game-- at least all parts of it-- very seriously.

I went to the game, but my report on Williams is not as positive as the previous 2. I saw him make 3 good plays, but 4 bad ones. He lined up at FREE Safety-- I thought he was SS, and that's what led me to think he blew the very first play as OK's TE ran a crossing route right in front of him and gained 34 yards. So that shoud not have been his fault. OK at first kept a FB in with a 2-WR set, so he often looked confused as to what he was supposed to do, but he did get in on 2 tackles with that set because he was the deep man who had to get it done after the ballcarriers (one RB, one Xman) got by the LB's. Near the end of the 1st quarter, OK switched to a 4-WR set, and he usually took the slot man; with this he was thrown at 4 times with only one completion; once the pass was interecepted (not by Willilams), but only because it was underthrown. But he stayed in for punt returns, and this was where he looked pathetic-- I only saw him throw one block in this situation, and that was very effortless; on most such plays he just plain quit and did nothing. Overall, I think he he wanted to end up near the play rather than be 'in on it.' Maybe he does have more ability than I saw-- and/or perhaps he didn't take the game that seriously-- but if I were a coach he would have to show more than he did tonight to convince me he wants to play and win. As for Chris Brainard, he wasn't all that impressive either. He did catch the first pass on the first offensive play of the game-- for 7 yards on the flat. He alternated time with an apparent rotation of 3 who brought in the plays, and several times there was time trouble or confusion on this. But that first catch was his only one until some time in the 2nd Q that he was thrown at, and it was incomplete, and TX was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct-- I didn't see exactly what happened, as it was across the field, but he was immediately pulled out and the coach gave him a dressing down. After that play, he appeared to perk up, and caught at least 2 more passes (I think 3), one a slant-in for good yardage where he showed a little speed. But he also dropped a sure TD pass; it was zipped in hard, but it had to be that near the goal line. Before the botched kick which may have cost TX the game, I had noticed that the defenders on a FG attempt cannot cross the line-- so they just raise their hands as if they are play-acting or something-- and I had not noticed this in 3 previous Oil Bowls I have attended. But it does make sense that, if the defenders cannot penetrate the line on a FG attempt, then if the kick is botched, the kicking team cannot run it, because it's the RULE that has already blocked the defenders out. But how do you bobble a FG snap when you know the defense cannot rush you?? That's rather mysterious, but I do easily see how the play was blown dead as the holder began running it. You can't expect a kid just out of high school to have Doug Flutie's presence of mind to do a quick drop-kick; but that's all that may have saved the play, far-fetched as it was.

Oh, is that it?

AspiratioN? AmbitioN? AnticipatioN? ApparitioN?

I was in section A for last Saturday's game, and my analysis is that Meager has either poor distance judgement or his arm is just not strong enough to hit the X man on a fly. 2 of those interception were right in front of me, and that corner knew exactly this tendency to underthrow that route toward the inside; both times he was perfectly positioned to make the pick, and he didn't have to turn his head till the last second. But Meager does hit the crossing routes and the curls quite well. He does, however, get confused by a zone blitz, and the tackles don't handle that at all well, either. I think the fact has to be faced that he cannot go long safely, and there will have to be better adjustments to the crossings and curls. The scheme worked so well in the first half, except for that one fly to the X. If they don't have the ability to adjust, I'd say it's a 2-5, maybe 3-4, year in the SunBelt. Unlike some here, though, I don't trust the idea of turning it over to a true freshman very soon. Even if Vizza is more experienced than Meaager in running the spread (as I tend to think) I think there would be a lot of psychological risk to rushing him in there. Af true freshman is adjusting to a lot more new things than a faster-paced football game, and he needs the confirmation of success to progress. Meager himself may have been a vicitim of this type of circumstance. I think he's shown he has more talent than observers (casual fans, anyway) thought 2 years ago, and last year when he lost and regained his starting job. Those blocked punts-- without which UNT may still have won-- seemed to be the line's fault. A team seldom lets that happen in one game and doesn't work hard the following week under frothy-mouthed coaches; so I think that will improve. Honestly, this was a game against evely matched teams. If UNT makes the improvements I am talking about-- and I don't know what the chances are-- they still could win 6 or more games. On a personal level, I have only one thing to indicate that TD may be stubborn and will stick to what he's started with, no matter what. About 15-16 years ago I needed a car and he had one for sale; I think it was a Bronco, or something similar. I got in touch with him and went over to look at it, and though I don't remember the mileage, he wanted $4000 for it. I thought I could get it for no more than $3700; so I bade, I think, $3400. He was totally non-negotibale; wouldn't come down any at all. I don't know whether he sold it and got his $4000, but if he thinks it's not 'fatal' to win/sell right now, I'm sure he won't compromise.

I thought I wouln't try predicting any more scores after my great one last year of UNT 26, MTSU 17. But I will try it for Dodge's first game, and I think logically this game will be closer than 'experts' say. OU's QB will make some bad reads and bad throws, and that will keep the game fairly close for most of 3 quarters, like 24-10. If Maeger (or any other QB) can release more quickly than I have seen him, it may be closer. But then OU"s advantage in speed and line strength will make itself evident, and OU pulls away, 41-13. I hope it's closer in the end, and even if NT does in fact hang close for almost 3 quarters, that may be reason for optimism, that after a few games and having played the fastest defense they will see all year at the beginning, NT can win 7 or 8 games and have a shot in the SunBelt.

As some were asking about the Oil Bowl and the 4 UNT players who were participating, I was there and followed them close, and here is my analysis: Thomas Moreland, K-P-- Good game; looked better at kicking field goals than punting and kicking off [he alone did all 3]. Both punts and kickoff were too low; and though he got a couple of touchbacks on kickoffs, they did kick from the 40, so kicking that same way from the 30 [this year's rule] would result in easy field position for receiving team on 35 or further. Early in the game, while in punt formation about the 30, the snap went over his head and he kicked the ball through the end zone; probably a smart play, giving up a safety to guard against a TD. Good prospect, at least as FG kicker. Marquese Davis, LB-- Fair game; made a couple of good stops, one a head-jarring crowd-pleaser, but a few plays later he was in position to break up a pass on a hook route and he missed it with his hand. Good quickness, but looked like he might have been out of position a few times; but hey, no one out there has played a game in 6-7 months [nor has this "analyst" been to one in that time]. Did not play TE, as he was also listed. J.J. Johnson, C-- Split time with another center, and Johnson looked the better of the 2. Stopped an inside stunt by DE once by cutting him low and he turned a complete flip. But at least once he fold-blocked on a running play and seemed content to stay between the LB and the ballcarrer, rather than aggressviely hit the guy. Twice got outside well on a sweep. Looked fairly good, but would get roughed up right against future opponents like OU, Arkansas, or Texas with quick defensive fronts. Kyle Russo, DE-- Not particularly impressive. Was kicked out alot on end sweeps, and didn't get close to the passer, except maybe twice. Recovered a fumble, which got him noted and applauded, but the ball just bounced right to him [can be odd what fans think makes a player deserve accolades]. I only remember one good stop, which was assisted. A mental mistake on someone's part [his, apparently] in the 3rd quarter when he went out to line up with the punting team, which was already at the line, then was flagged for illegal substitution; he would have been the 12th man. Did not see him line up on offense at TE. Otherwise, although I don't know if any Player of the Game awards were handed out, I would vote for Nathan Dick, the Texas quarterback from Allen, who has signed with Arkansas. Good passer, good scrambler [definitely better at that than his brother, the listed Arkansas starter]. 3rd Oil Bowl in a row I have attended, and this was the best game so far, still fairly close till the last 6 minutes. But the final of score of 31-16 Texas did reflect the quality of the teams, IMO.

I don't think that's true. To pick one team to have the best shot at winning the conference is not saying another [all the rest of them] do not have a shot. Besides, 23 out of 64 (so far) is absolutely not saying No Shot.