Arkstfan

MWC isn't coming to Texas. They have a nice tidy 14. If they do anything it will be make another run at Gonzaga now that Washington State is in.

They'll get more than $5 million in the next contract and they won't have to play any 9am local time games in Charlotte.

No MAC exercised option in the agreement where they invited UMass as a full member, if they declined, automatic kick out. MAC only invited UMass to balance out football only Temple. Once the Owls left, MAC had no interest in a football only UMass. All or nothing. UMass opted for nothing over playing basketball in the MAC.

You been to the La.Tech board... ever? They can more than pick up SMU's slack. 🙂

Exactly. Does AAC have to expand? Nope. 13 teams in an environment where divisions aren't needed isn't a problem. If you look at the "we want markets" approach, choices boil down to: Buffalo, NIU (sort of, rural by Chicago TV market), Bowling Green (sort of, rural but in Indianapolis market), Georgia State, Kennesaw State, Texas State (sort of, technically Austin TV market), Louisiana (ECU sized market smack dab between Tulane and Rice which as a larger public makes them probably a no vote for Tulane and Rice), UTEP, FIU, and Army. Doesn't fit but easy to get UMass. UMass is cheapest get, followed by CUSA and MAC schools at around $5 million. Think SBC buy out is $6 million. Who would knock their mamma down to join? UMass, Texas State, UTEP, La.Tech, WKU, MTSU, FIU, maybe Georgia State. Maybe Louisiana. Would others join yeah but there is a difference between jumping up and down yelling pick me and yeah we looked at the numbers, it works.

Talks ended because one or more of these statements are true. 1. The two schools said no way are we humping that far to play for that amount of money. 2. The AAC membership said no way are we humping that far to play for that amount of money.

Either the two have said no and commish is getting ahead of it, or did the math and can't justify going west.

Nailed it.

Oh and to just add. Big XII commissioner has said that in the future, he expects Big XII will break basketball away from the TV rights deal and sell hoops independently because he believes there is no new money to be made off football rights while there is potential for hoops to generate more, especially via streaming. He was all set to go after Gonzaga and UConn if the four corners schools didn't join because he thinks putting that much basketball prowess in one place creates something people will pay to see.

So far the trend has been power leagues disregard travel because the money is more than enough to put the unpaid "help" on airplanes. Absent money in the $30 million or more range, the trend has been geographic. A conference might be spread over a sizable range but has geographic clusters that lend themselves to regions. AAC is basically a SW conference and east coast conference. Sun Belt is South and East, MAC splits fairly nicely. CUSA is cobbled up post-raid and MWC is as compact as the west allows you to be. If I were guessing, AAC commissioner WANTS to go really big, maybe something like Washington State, Oregon State, SDSU, Boise and one of Air Force or UNLV. What remains to be seen is can he get the money to make that worth East Carolina kicking off at 10pm eastern time or for Washington State to kickoff at 9am Pacific.

Their interest is to consolidate value. Note that the P2+1 (ACC) is leagues with their own TV network. In the case of B1G, a network co-owned by the league, with ACC and SEC, a fat rights fee for the branding, but no capital outlay or risk by the leagues (absent bankruptcy proceedings). The G5 have been getting more linear spots because so much inventory is being hustled by the conference networks. Now that they have more inventory, there may be less need for AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, Sun Belt content but it still matters how many people will subscribe to streaming. I think there is an expectation at ESPN that they will move some of this new inventory to not just the networks they've created, but to streaming as well. Knowing everything that is going on ESPN cut a new contract with the Missouri Valley Football Conference that doesn't just put MVFC content on ESPN+ it also includes linear broadcasts. ESPN doesn't reveal their streaming numbers, but a few years ago (pre-Covid) some numbers did leak and one thing that popped up was, SBC does quite well streaming. Casual fans don't mean crap in a streaming environment, the dude who shows up for a big game or takes the kids once a year isn't likely to pay to stream the rest of the games. Charlotte probably beats App in linear audience, App undoubtedly has more fans willing to pay ESPN for the privilege of streaming than Charlotte has. A new market/economy is emerging. The upside for G5 is look at TV. Today if you are a studio/network you don't generally take your highbrow shows that appeal to people who appreciate great production values, good acting, and great scripts and stick them on CBS. You put that show on Paramount+ and you fill the time slot on CBS with a low cost "reality" show, or a competition show, or some cheap formulaic comedy. The G5 fill the need for cheap content, especially to fill in when your casual audience is people who might change channels because TAMU-LSU turns out to be boring or because Cowboys vs Giants on Thursday night isn't interesting. G5 fill your need for people willing to pay for streaming because you want wring extra dollars out of the process and insure content isn't counter-programmed in ways you don't want. G5 conferences do not fill your need for a dedicated linear/streaming network because they don't have the oomph to force Direct TV or Charter to pay a fat carriage fee. B1G and SEC (lesser degree ACC and even lesser degree B12) are Taylor Swift. Fat guarantees upfront to go to the studio, ridiculously large stadium tours, insane merch revenue, a follow-up live album and of course a movie that will generate theater revenue, followed by buy a copy, followed by rentals, followed by right to include in your streaming service. G5 is Jason Isbell. Got to be involved in having your own record company that puts it together, contract someone to distribute, make your money filling small venues on 200 date tour and making a bit each night on merch.

This is the first FBS conference to get raided at the end of a media contract since SWC and that was a whole different universe back then. Leagues with something in hand have an easier time. Schools left and their worldview matters too. If it were MWC gutted, I'd have few doubts about their survival because if say New Mexico and Wyoming got left behind, New Mexico State and UTEP would be interested. North Dakota State, South Dakota State, and maybe North Dakota would be calling. Montana and Montana State might be tempted. Cal-Davis, Cal Poly, Sacramento State, and Portland State would be looking at their capacity to shift subdivisions. MWC down to a handful of schools would have people saying pick me. Pac-4 has people saying pick me but the people doing the picking are so far not accepting their circumstances. They are apparently NOT calling the two Dakota States nor their ancient conference brothers Montana. CUSA wasn't being picky when the time came. I think they scored a bargain with Kennesaw State. Liberty will acquit themselves well and with new leadership now in place might actually be run by people they feel they can work with instead of a puffed up dude who thought he could bully or buy anything he wanted. Even if MTSU hadn't been in dire need of the departure money prompting their decision to turn down the MAC and effectively block WKU's departure, FIU, Tech and UTEP would still have found backfill schools. Pac-4 isn't mentally there.

He is not making predictions. He's thinking out loud about different configurations. It's no insider info and really not even doing close analysis of what would work best.

When Andre Dawson became a free agent, he wanted to leave Montreal because he felt the turf was too hard on his knees. Couldn't get any offers because it was the year the owners colluded to kill free agency. Dawson wanted out. Went to the Cubs and said just name your price for a one year deal and I'll come. Got like $600,000 before incentives. Tears it up, gets three years and six million on next deal. It's not unusual for people to say I'll take lesser compensation short-term to prove my worth. In the case of SMU, I view it as a speculative deal. SMU doesn't bring a lot of proven. equity so has to pay a lot to get in. No different than what happens in law firms. Dude has been making it rain and law firm wants him to join, they let his book of business be the price he pays to join, in some cases, the firm will offer him added cash to join up. Meanwhile Billy Bookworm who isn't a proven rainmaker is a proven expert at writing appeals. he offers valuable skills that the rainmakers can market since he sucks at marketing. Billy will have to pay to become a partner. He might have to make a lump sum and might have to borrow money to pay it, or he may get a restricted partner share for a period of time to pay his way in. SMU is a gamble. The gamble very simply is, will SMU's presence in the conference increase the number of people in Texas who watch because SMU is playing Pitt and does increase who will watch Virginia Tech play North Carolina? Does SMU's presence make it easier for Clemson or UVA to recruit a kid from Texas? No one can definitively answer those questions. Well I'm sure UNT fans believe they know a definitive answer and SMU fans believe they know a definitive answer. My guess is SMU long-term probably benefits as much as Cal simply by virtue of an old recognized name in a market that actually likes college football. SF market is much more pro oriented. The only issues pro sports have had in San Francisco and Los Angeles has been local governments have tended to say "You have a business that not only makes millions per year, the resale value rises by millions if not billions per year, you want a place to conduct business and have the rental income from concerts and other events, you need to pay all or most of the costs." There is however no reliable data that can be used to extrapolate those answers with high confidence. ACC requiring a fat buy in to insure against the possibility that they don't get the revenue and recruiting boost they hope to obtain makes plenty of sense. It is also possible the size of the buy in is case of the telephone game. Someone says, "hell if we have to give up 7 years of revenue, I'd do it" and becomes "SMU has offered to give up 7 years revenue."

Reddit CFB summed it up. Problem for ACC is if they admit Stanford and Cal, Florida State might get mad and leave. If they don't admit Stanford and Cal, Florida State might get mad and leave. Honestly if I'm an ACC president, Florida State's BS would be convince me to vote for Stanford and Cal as protection from the erratic leadership there. It doesn't seem clear if the president runs the school with consent from the board or the board runs the school and the president signs whatever is needed.

Actually pretty typical coach. Coaches tend to not want to face tougher competition. UNC women's soccer has 21 national championships and six second place finishes and made final four another four times. Forty total NCAA appearances, yes they've won basically every other tournament appearance and only failed to make final four 9 times and only failed to make championship game 13 times. In three seasons before NCAA took over women's sports missed AIAW tournament once with a 10-2 record, finished as a semi-finalist and then won it last year AIAW was in business so 22 total national titles. They've made every NCAA Tournament and made two of three AIAW tournaments. 1979 only time haven't played in national championship tournament. Despite those gaudy numbers, haven't won the NCAA Tournament since 2012. After 47 years think he's hearing the footsteps.

This year Oregon State hosts UCLA, Washington, Stanford, and Utah. Washington State hosts Colorado, Stanford, Oregon State, and Arizona. Cougars schedule this year is fairly close to what they likely get if the four stick together. Oregon State loses a top 15 opponent and two traditional opponents. Selling tickets for UNLV or Rice or Utah State or Tulsa in lieu of UCLA, Washington, and Utah I suspect will be a challenge. Character of fan base will emerge. Will they pout and stay home or flock in to support the team?

Underwhelming article. At least since the SWC and Big-8 went to ABC to talk options going forward after the CFA TV deal broke up schools have gone to the powers that be and asked "What will you pay for ______?" The idea that they would be in a situation of joining MWC or rebuilding while not knowing the TV value is silly.

Some interesting takes. I struggle to see how adding Oregon State to AAC is notably different from adding Fresno. Based on fan attention Boise State is likely more value to AAC than Washington State. Cal is obviously a freaking mess in athletics but they are a bigger brand in name recognition than UCF and Stanford even bigger than they are. Those a schools worth traveling for. Oregon State and Washington State? Network TV didn't broadcast more than half of programming in color until 1965. Oregon State won the Pac-8 in 1964 and only once (2000) since and they split that title with Washington who had beaten them. Washington State won titles in 1917, 1930, 1997, and 2002 and split the last two. Neither gets presidents giddy about academic prestige. MWC with just the two of them isn't getting a big bump in TV money.

Writer for BearInsider believes ACC is voting again Tuesday and this time Cal and Stanford get in. If Oregon State and Washington State are the last cats standing seems pretty improbable that they raid a conference but rather join an existing one that claims to be the Pac-12 for the purposes of keeping the units earned. It seems a tall order for them to produce enough new TV revenue to offset the cost and hassle of travel for AAC. Football charters to Washington State tend to either fly in and out of Lewiston, ID which means taking off with a short load of fuel (short runway) and then flying to Boise or Salt Lake to refuel and go on or bus 90 minutes to Spokane to fly. Oregon State a bit easier with 45 minute bus ride from the Eugene airport. Just can't imagine too many people east of the rockies caring or recognizing Oregon State, WSU bit better known but obviously Leach days are over. https://bearinsider.com/forums/2/topics/116011/1

I'm skeptical. When revenue declines, increasing expenses isn't a generally favored strategy.

It seems pretty narrowed but Oliver Luck might cook up something surprising. I'm personally rooting for a merger. Indifferent who it is with. Merger brings the chaos to a pause. AAC getting raided means chaos, I'm tired of chaos. Might mean yet more FCS schools called up and outside the two Dakota and two Montana schools and maybe Cal Davis and Kennesaw State who is already moving up, there's not much left in FCS I think has the resources and upside to not be zombie programs. MWC raid could see some MWC schools be zombie programs or out of FBS and don't like that outcome. It's not like there's another Idaho zombie program in the west shambling along neither alive or dead that needs to leave FBS.

What exactly is it that they COULD be doing that aren't doing? I'm sure they've been part of Pac-4 talking to media partners about the value of various combinations that do and do not include Stanford. I'm sure they've listened as MWC as touted what their numbers are with them as a member and a similar pitch from AAC. Could they just go "do something" by leaping into another conference? Yeah and then might look really stupid when the remainders pick off the value of that conference. Stanford ain't gone until Stanford has a place to move. I think we can scratch B1G, B12, SEC off that place to move list, so that leaves ACC who is reportedly one vote shy of admitting them. What we don't know is if there is a no vote that could become a yes vote if the right bargain is struck. Maybe changing ACC exit from Alcatraz level security to Leavenworth level barriers convinces Florida State to change their vote. I'm not convinced that Florida State is as hot of a property as Florida State believes. They add zero dollars to the SEC Network, ESPN would have to pay more for ABC/ESPN content to make up that no gain plus sharing revenue with them. B1G could make more money but B1G more likely isn't looking to add until they get some time under their belt with the four western schools and FSU isn't in AAU which has been a key point in assessing candidates. So if they can't get a deal brokered for ACC, Stanford is down to independent in football and find a less prestigious home for other sports or rebuild with schools they find acceptable which isn't San Jose and Fresno or most state schools that aren't land grant research schools. That takes us back to Washington State. Why would you leap today for options that are still there tomorrow when waiting may mean finding a way to keep Stanford?

Few years ago someone did a poll of NFL players and asked them what college they would want their kids to attend. Stanford was the runaway winner.

They offer academic prestige and they mean you can send the basketball team to Stanford on Wednesday or Thursday and let them stay there to play Cal on Saturday instead of turning around and going to Pitt.