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mad dog

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Posts posted by mad dog

  1. 1) Are we sure that we are improving, not that the other teams are not as good as previously?

    Could be a lot of things. For whatever reason (doing better, everyone else sucking, Fout's psychological toll on players, Rick V's sweaters, the price of legos on the North Korean black market), the team is trending positive.

    2) Sounds like a plan. I am excited about the idea of wallowing in losing territory for another 5 years so we can reach .500. Assuming that your statistical modeling is correct.

    Me too. There's nothing I love better than watching laboriously slow improvement. And I wouldn't assume my model is correct or even oriented in that general direction. In fact, even referring to it as a "statistical model" gives it a laughably undeserved credibility. I think I woke up in my college stats class once and heard the word "linear regression," which I promptly turned into a bar napkin "model" five years later to describe the objective improvement of a football team. :ph34r:

  2. I meant to post this a while ago, but I got busy with work and forgot about it. It seems somewhat germane to this discussion.

    I did some research about the team's margin of victory/defeat. Here's my formula -

    Take points scored per game of TD era.

    Take points given up per game of TD era.

    Subtract PPG from points given up per game.

    Chart those numbers (Differential or Average Margin of Victory/Defeat)

    Using the last four games of the 2006 season as a lead-in, establish a six game rolling average to reduce seasonal variation.

    Chart those numbers.

    Assume the current rate of growth will hold constant ad infinitum.

    Project when differential > 0 using linear regression.

    Using this formula, the data suggests that 1) the team is, in fact, actually improving, and 2) the average margin of victory/defeat will finally cross 0 sometime in the middle of the 2015 season. Historically, teams around 0 had a .500 record.

  3. I've kinda hit a ceiling at my current job, and I'm starting to peek around for alternatives. I have four years of experience, two of those within municipal finance. I specialize in budget, purchasing, and strategic analysis, but am not really locked in to any one field at the moment. If you're looking for a generalist to help your business, send me a private message and I'll give you a copy of my resume.

    :)

  4. Sorry to read this post. This one is especially hard to read as I realize how heartfelt it is and where it is coming from. The saddest part to me is the fact that, once again, support for one's university is tied to the football team's won-loss record. I get kidded about my loyalty to UNT all the time by my friends who graduated elsewhere. I get the emails and calls after each and every loss, so what? UNT is not the football team and I am personally not defined by the college teams I support. Heck, there have been some years when all three colleges I graduated from were taking it in the shorts every week. You think that was fun to take? No, but these things change and it is part of the fun of being a college sports fan, and a UNT fan in particular. I would encourage folks to get a bit of perspective on this whole thing. You are not defined by the won-loss record of the school you attended or graduated from. "Emotional investment" is self-made...you can make it positive or negative...yes, you really can. Anyway, I ask you to keep the faith in your university. It is much grander than just it's football program.

    GO MEAN GREEN. I encourage all who feels as illuvius32 does to watch the UNT Traditions video posted on another thread here on GMG.com. Might help your emotional side get a big uplift.

    I appreciate your support for the school, but you really do give me tired head sometimes. I think you're insinuating several things about my post that are pretty wrong, and, although I won't be drawn into a war of words, I felt it might be good to correct them so that others don't take your opinion and run with it.

    This board, as you might conclude from the site name, is dedicated to North Texas althletics, chiefly football. So my focus of what North Texas means to me, when posted on that forum, should be taken in that context. Your conclusion that I don't or won't support the university as a whole because of how the football team performs is truly a straw man argument. I always love to see great things happen with the university: my Public Administration department, for one, has been a monumental success and continues to draw top students from around the nation. Football has nothing to do with them, so it doesn't affect my contributions or service to them. Likewise, my support of them has absolutely nothing to do with football, which is, again, the whole point of this particular forum.

    Your posts lately have switched from a "good things are happening for Mean Green Football" to your current alignment of "good things are happening for the University of North Texas." And, not to douse your fervor in any way, but do you think the fact you DID graduate from three different schools maybe helps you out a little bit? When it comes to colleges, I don't have any other option besides North Texas. I can't simply put a blindfold on and play random selection with my diplomas. You said you have had a few weeks where all of "your colleges" have taken it in the shorts. Well, all of "my colleges" have been taking it in the shorts most every week for the past four years.

    When they lose, it hurts. When they lose a lot, I hurt a lot. When they have a bad week, I have a bad week. That is the nature of being a fan - an emotional investment with the intent of drawing an emotional return. But the risk is that return may be negative. When that fire gets too hot for too long, you may need to step out for a while. Is it fair to my wife, my family and friends to be in a bad mood every weekend during the fall? I am not "defined" by a win-loss record, but I am defined by how I treat others. If you, though iron control, obliviousness, or some other mechanism, are able to steel yourself though the same fire that I feel, then I wilingly concede that you are a better man than I am. Your trophy is in the mail.

    But please don't confuse, though intention or not, my stepping away from the table with abandoning the university. As you say, there are many facets and avenues of support that I might choose to explore. For the moment, though, none of them can be found on a football message board.

  5. I have held off voicing my opinion for a while, out of respect for the team and the job they were trying to accomplish. I held off because, somewhere, there was a tiny flicker of hope that I may have been completely wrong about this program: that maybe a .500 season wouldn't be out of the question. Last Saturday, after looking at the score, I discovered something truly disturbing.

    I just didn't care.

    Somewhere along the line, that tiny flame got snuffed out. I don't know if it was Troy in particular, or some other game where we found a way to lose in the final second. I don't know which demoralizing loss did it for me, or if it was even the net result of any game in particular. It may have been reading Ira Smith's comments about "it's going to be tough, but we are going to go to work" and knowing that this team has mentally checked out already. It may well have been the pervasive atmosphere of failure and despair this program has exuded for the latter half of this decade. Whatever the reason, my support, which had been on life support for years, finally flatlined.

    At the beginning of this season, I decided not to renew my season tickets. The reason I used was that my wife and I recently moved into a new house, and we needed the money at home. While that was a good reason, I honestly could have come up with the money if it meant enough to me. Looking back, I believe I talked myself out of it because I was tired of getting kicked in the groin every single week for three years. I was tired of defending my school, and exhausted from getting up for each new season - finding the positivity when I knew there was none to be had.

    It isn't that I don't want the best for North Texas - it will always be my school. It isn't as though I can just drop UNT and adopt another team (though, to my shame, I did actually try - I just couldn't do it). It is just that I hated feeling terrible all the time, with no end in sight - I simply ran out of faith. So, with my emotional investment withdrawn, there was nothing to sustain my financial investment.

    Will North Texas ever find a way back to competitive play? Will the Administration find a way to whip this thing into shape? Will Coach Dodge find success here? I hope it does - I really only want what's best for the team. I just got tired of pretending the plate of manure in front of me tasted like ice cream.

  6. Please stop with the personal attacks on pumpkins. I wonder how many posters would say some of these things to the pumpkins' faces, rather than hide behind a screen name. Whether or not you like the pumpkins, they are OUR pumpkins, and we ought to treat them with respect.

  7. I love pepperoni. I don't like the inference that the players don't care about winning.

    Yeah... I'm pretty sure they care about winning, too. Which, in a way, makes our win-loss record even more disturbing. Like the difference between failing a test with a 0 and failing it with a 20: you can at least claim that you didn't care at all if you get a zero. But a 20 means you tried, but failed really really hard.

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