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7-5 but if they lose to Troy it could get bad.

Troy loss at home =. 2012 jump the shark

Agreed 100%. I hate putting so much stock into a week 4 game, but a loss against Troy means going on a 2 game road trip with a 1-3 record where 1 game is a guarantee loss and the other we SHOULD win, but we might be hung over from the Troy loss. At best you're looking at 2-4 after a Troy loss and the road trip, to come home against a tough ULL team on national TV. A win in that game would solve a lot, but that is no cake walk, so a Troy loss could mean an easy 2-5 start with 3 road games to go. Not good at all.

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