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Here we go again? Conference Changes?


El Paso Eagle
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I don't see how UA, ASU, CO, and Utah stay with the release of how much the Big12 are going to be making (assuming the Big12 wants them.) I think the payout is going to be $50m per school, surprisingly going up even after OU and UT left. The MW or the Pac12 might fall apart if this news is true. Look for the AAC to poach some of those teams like Air Force/Colorado state if things start to move quickly. 

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2 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

 

With the deal the Big12 got vs what they Pac12 is likely to get I think they made the right choice. 

With BYU it has nothing to do with money.  It never has.  They already have a national following, but see themselves as a west coast team and have wanted to be in the PAC forever.  They have also seen themselves as a legitimate P5 team and the B12 was simply a matter of convenience for them to get there.  If the PAC12 reached out to BYU (although it may not be the best cultural fit), BYU would pull the fastest TCU move ever. 

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59 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

I don't see how UA, ASU, CO, and Utah stay with the release of how much the Big12 are going to be making (assuming the Big12 wants them.) I think the payout is going to be $50m per school, surprisingly going up even after OU and UT left. The MW or the Pac12 might fall apart if this news is true. Look for the AAC to poach some of those teams like Air Force/Colorado state if things start to move quickly. 

This move, if true, may put the MW in play.  We've heard that AF wants more access to Texas.  I'm sure they would like to play every other year in San Antonio were there is something like 4 Air Force bases and the Air Force village retirement community.  It could be like another home game for them.  

If the AAC could get Colorado State to come along, that would be great.  If not and Air Force wants to come, then make a run at Army and get the three service academies in the same conference.  I think there were 2 spots left open for a reason.

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21 minutes ago, keith said:

With BYU it has nothing to do with money.  It never has.  They already have a national following, but see themselves as a west coast team and have wanted to be in the PAC forever.  They have also seen themselves as a legitimate P5 team and the B12 was simply a matter of convenience for them to get there.  If the PAC12 reached out to BYU (although it may not be the best cultural fit), BYU would pull the fastest TCU move ever. 

I'm not so sure.  The PAC looks to be a sinking ship.  USC and UCLA are already gone.  If Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and maybe a couple of others join them in fleeing to the B1G, does BYU leave the BXII to join a conference with San Diego State and San Jose State?  It doesn't make sense on any level.

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SDSU is a natural fit for the PAC. BYU would also fit well. I don’t think the PAC is a washed up conference. The SC loss was big….still not sure UCLA makes the move. The UC system is not happy and may have leverage to keep them where they are. There is a lot of fun football played out west. Get an Utah St and possibly Boise St on a bounce back. Lots of good football to be played. San Jose St might be a player as well. 

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4 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

I'm not so sure.  The PAC looks to be a sinking ship.  USC and UCLA are already gone.  If Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and maybe a couple of others join them in fleeing to the B1G, does BYU leave the BXII to join a conference with San Diego State and San Jose State?  It doesn't make sense on any level.

This, why would you want to leave the 3rd strongest conference to go to a place where everyone is looking to bail at the next possible time? You have a much better chance of getting recognition playing against nationally respected names in; TCU, Ok. State, Baylor, Cincy, Houston, UCF than; Oregon, Washington, and Utah. Who's really left in the Pac12 to build upon? Not to even mention basketball. 

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5 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

I'm not so sure.  The PAC looks to be a sinking ship.  USC and UCLA are already gone.  If Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and maybe a couple of others join them in fleeing to the B1G, does BYU leave the BXII to join a conference with San Diego State and San Jose State?  It doesn't make sense on any level.

But none of those other defections have happened yet.  Remember, wasn't Kansas about to join the BIG?

The SDSU move is just a rumor at this point, so this is all just what if speculation, but If you are BYU and everything else is equal, would you rather be associated with:

Baylor, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa St, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF and WVA

or

Arizona, Arizona State, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Utah, Washington, Washington State

You are defined by the company you keep and the PAC is loaded with state flagship and top-notch universities.  The B12 has 2 in Kansas and WVA as flagships and Iowa St. 

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46 minutes ago, keith said:

With BYU it has nothing to do with money.  It never has.  They already have a national following, but see themselves as a west coast team and have wanted to be in the PAC forever.  They have also seen themselves as a legitimate P5 team and the B12 was simply a matter of convenience for them to get there.  If the PAC12 reached out to BYU (although it may not be the best cultural fit), BYU would pull the fastest TCU move ever. 

For the reasons stated above I don't see them taking that deal. BYU may have wanted to join the current Pac12 and would do it in a heart beat, but with UCLA/USC leaving the risk is too high that you get stuck in a conference that everyone left. Losing the 4 corner schools is a real possibility, and Oregon/Washington will jump if there is a chance in the B1G10. BYU would get stuck in a MWC+ and that scenario, although far off, is too much of a gamble. 

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The Pac-12 has never been a fan of cult minded religious schools. That is why colleges in Texas would never have had a shot at joining the PAC-12. Hate on me all you want, but you know it's true.

I don't think this changes too much, however I would take a hard look at Montana or UTEP when considering candidates to replace San Diego State. I know UTEP isn't attractive, but their really isn't alot of FBS contenders out west that could fill the MWC gap.

I do think that Colorado will eventually join the B12. The timing of that move is foggy though

 

GMG!

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5 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

For the reasons stated above I don't see them taking that deal. BYU may have wanted to join the current Pac12 and would do it in a heart beat, but with UCLA/USC leaving the risk is too high that you get stuck in a conference that everyone left. Losing the 4 corner schools is a real possibility, and Oregon/Washington will jump if there is a chance in the B1G10. BYU would get stuck in a MWC+ and that scenario, although far off, is too much of a gamble. 

I guess I don't see the inevitable implosion or destruction of the PAC that everyone else does.  Why hasn't it already been picked apart if everyone wants out?  As a conference, it still has a lot of cachet and brand value IMHO.  The Big12 didn't fall apart with the departure of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, so I'm not sure why everyone thinks it's a foregone conclusion that it will happen to the PAC.  I guess time will tell.  Of course there's always the possibility that adding BYU is what convinces everyone else to leave....hahahaha.   

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10 minutes ago, keith said:

I guess I don't see the inevitable implosion or destruction of the PAC that everyone else does.  Why hasn't it already been picked apart if everyone wants out?  As a conference, it still has a lot of cachet and brand value IMHO.  The Big12 didn't fall apart with the departure of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, so I'm not sure why everyone thinks it's a foregone conclusion that it will happen to the PAC.  I guess time will tell.  Of course there's always the possibility that adding BYU is what convinces everyone else to leave....hahahaha.   

 

I think the Pac will survive in some form, but it will be watered down. The question is how watered down will it be? Just USC/UCLA or will other also leave? I don't see quality replacements left on the level of UCF/Cincy/Houston if they can't get BYU to join. Who can they really pull from? SDSU is not on that level and they are their best choice. I don't see any current or future Big12 members taking that deal. Plus the Big12 payout is huge, something like $80m, the Pac12's is running out in 2025 with no penalty if they leave. 

As to why it hasn't happened yet conferences need time to crunch the numbers and get their deals in place. No one is going to move without having everything hammered out, they have no urgency to. 

Honestly if I were BYU I'd want to stick it to the Pac for leaving them out for so many years. 

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53 minutes ago, keith said:

Why hasn't it already been picked apart if everyone wants out? 

As of now, nobody wants out just to get out.  They specifically want into the B1G.  Cal, Oregon, Stanford, and Washington have met with B1G officials seeking an invitation, but none has been forthcoming as of yet.  But if the invitations do come, they're gone.  And if they do, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few teams (viz., the two Arizona teams and Colorado) looking to exit to the BXII.

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The Big Ten has made no secret of possibly becoming a 20 school conference, currently flirting with Stanford, Oregon, and Washington, and maintaining an open invitation to Notre Dame.

They're just waiting on Notre Dame to make the announcement.

Notre Dame could lose the majority of their big annual rivalry games (Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, USC, and Stanford) if they decline.

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Didn't the University of California System board pass some kind of resolution of condemnation of the BYU code of ethics in the last couple of years? Even with UCLA out of the PAC, I find it hard to Cal or Oregon or Washington accepting BYU unless they renounce for the their LDS honor code restrictions. It's not that BYU doesn't want to join the PAC, but rather that PAC doesn't want to deal with large student protests every time a BYU team is on campus for a game. 

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40 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

As of now, nobody wants out just to get out.  They specifically want into the B1G.  Cal, Oregon, Stanford, and Washington have met with B1G officials seeking an invitation, but none has been forthcoming as of yet.  But if the invitations do come, they're gone.  And if they do, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few teams (viz., the two Arizona teams and Colorado) looking to exit to the BXII.

What would be really sad there is that Utah would be left twiddling thumbs, and they're one of the best-performing schools, overall, in the conference!   I bet they'd be a good addition with those other 3 you mention.    That leaves Wazzu & ORSt out in the cold.   Solid additions to the MWC.   SDSU would obviously have to come back too.

The Big 12 was on life support less than a year ago.   Their overall qualify conference play this season has made them the more desirable conference. So crazy.

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Just now, VideoEagle said:

Didn't the University of California System board pass some kind of resolution of condemnation of the BYU code of ethics in the last couple of years? Even with UCLA out of the PAC, I find it hard to Cal or Oregon or Washington accepting BYU unless they renounce for the their LDS honor code restrictions. It's not that BYU doesn't want to join the PAC, but rather that PAC doesn't want to deal with large student protests every time a BYU team is on campus for a game. 

BYU is already headed to a stronger Big 12 with other religious schools.   Why would they leave to jump to a sinking PAC12 where they're not wanted anyway?

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6 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

The Big 12 was on life support less than a year ago.   Their overall qualify conference play this season has made them the more desirable conference. So crazy.

I remember many thinking the Big XXII would break up so badly some of those schools would be willing to join the AAC. Not likely to happen for a while! 

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1 minute ago, VideoEagle said:

I remember many thinking the Big XXII would break up so badly some of those schools would be willing to join the AAC. Not likely to happen for a while! 

Oh yeah.  I was one of those thinking NT was needing to get our act together so we'd position ourselves to be in a conference with the "Big12 leftovers" and some other AAC/CUSA schools.   

I suppose that could still happen depending on how greedy the SEC gets, and what it does to the ACC in addition to the Big12.  There could still be more movement and poaching.

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