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DRC: Prediction -- WKU is a bad matchup for UNT, which will see its C-USA title hopes fade in loss to Hilltoppers

Brett Vito

By Brett Vito
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3 hours ago, StealthEagle84 said:

I'm not sure this is as bad of a matchup as stated.  Yes, they throw the ball well and our secondary can give up big chunks.  But, I don't think they've seen a run game like ours (when we're clicking).  I'm hoping last week was an anomaly and we get back on track running the ball this weekend.  IF (big if) we can get the ground game going, we'll have a solid chance at winning this game.   

 

If I were the opposing team the clear strategy would be to pack the box, make UNT throw and see if they can get it done through the air. 

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emmitt01 Grand Master

emmitt01

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On 10/27/2022 at 11:42 AM, UNTcrazy727 said:

WKU's 37.5 pts per game is misleading, IMO. That number is inflated by 2 blowouts versus 2 of the worst teams in the country (FIU, Hawaii). If you look at their last 4 games they are only averaging 27.5/game.

No doubt we'll give up some big plays, but I don't think they're on the same level as UTSA or SMU. This is all going to rest on Aune. I suspect, like UTSA, WKU is going to sellout to stop the run. We can't wait until the 4th quarter to get our passing game going. If Aune can't complete 60% of his passes, I don't like our chances. 

That’s a mighty wordy way of saying “all WKU has to do is worry about the run”

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97and03 Grand Master

97and03

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41 minutes ago, emmitt01 said:

That’s a mighty wordy way of saying “all WKU has to do is worry about the run”

Which is true. Watching Adam’s breakdown of the running game, a couple of things were clear. Our pulling game works really well if the opposition hasn’t completely sold out against the run. But against UTsa, they extra 1-2 guys disrupted our blocking just enough to cause them to be slightly late getting around or miss enough so the defender could get on a hand on the RB and slow him down resulting in shorter gains (or blowing up the play in some cases). Aune had the opportunity - but not the ability - to throw to WRs in single coverage. Unfortunately, there were some wasted opportunities in the first half. I have noticed that Aune seems to be even more inaccurate when on the move. This is a real shame because with that much pressure coming up the middle he could avoid the rush and rollout to gain time. But it’s all for naught if he can’t hit the receiver. The pass to Shorter early on was a good example.  Maybe he should have caught it anyway but the ball was overthrown. 

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UNTcrazy727 Grand Master

UNTcrazy727

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On 10/27/2022 at 11:42 AM, UNTcrazy727 said:

WKU's 37.5 pts per game is misleading, IMO. That number is inflated by 2 blowouts versus 2 of the worst teams in the country (FIU, Hawaii). If you look at their last 4 games they are only averaging 27.5/game.

No doubt we'll give up some big plays, but I don't think they're on the same level as UTSA or SMU. This is all going to rest on Aune. I suspect, like UTSA, WKU is going to sellout to stop the run. We can't wait until the 4th quarter to get our passing game going. If Aune can't complete 60% of his passes, I don't like our chances. 

I’ve never been happier to be right. WKU offense a bunch of paper tigers. Great f’ing win. 

Edited by UNTcrazy727
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