How many wins triggers Seth extension?

[UNTcrazy727]

4 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

He has done textbook mediocre. He is the definition of mediocrity. I find it difficult to just blatantly support that. But, I asked, you answered. 

He said we’re currently undefeated and tied for first in conference and to suggest there’s nothing a coach can do in that situation to be retained is ridiculous. How is that supporting mediocrity? 

[NorthTexasWeLove]

Just now, UNTcrazy727 said:

He said we’re currently undefeated and tied for first in conference and to suggest there’s nothing a coach can do in that situation to be retained is ridiculous. How is that supporting mediocrity? 

Well, there's this thing called a body of work. It creates program trajectories. Hey, have your opinions...Wrong, right or indifferent. 

[greenminer]

4 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

Well, there's this thing called a body of work. It creates program trajectories. Hey, have your opinions...Wrong, right or indifferent. 

Pretty big clash here: if he somehow wins conference or ties for first, it's ridiculous to fire him.  If you factor in the body of work, it's ridiculous to keep him.

I can understand both sides.

[UNTcrazy727]

8 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

Well, there's this thing called a body of work. It creates program trajectories. Hey, have your opinions...Wrong, right or indifferent. 

You would fire a coach who just won a conference championship? Isn’t that exactly what everyone here has been wanting Littrell to do? 

[greenminer]

Follow up: I find it hard to believe SL will win this conference.  Too much evidence to suggest he'll lose some more games this year.,

[UNTcrazy727]

7 hours ago, GrandGreen said:

Yes, but that is avoiding the question, while inserting your wishes.

If he wins 8 or more, he will be awarded a new contract.

If he wins less than 7, he will be gone.

That leaves what happens if he wins 7.   I think this could go either way depending on the scores of the remaining games. 

 If the losses are close and competitive, it is most likely he will be back for the last year of his contract. 

I don't think like some others that would ruin recruiting.  It wouldn't help, but after a 7 win season: I think recruiting could improve despite the possibility of a coaching change in 2023.

If we finish the year (counting bowl game) with 7 wins there’s no way Littrell is back. 7-6 ain’t cutting it after the last few years. 8 wins probably gets him an extra year and 9+ gets him a couple. 

[untlynchka1]

If we win 8 or more games and/or win conference Littrell is 100% getting extended. The only way he is not is if Baker already has his guy 100% in his pocket and committed.

Plus, it would have to be a headline name hire. Someone that is going to ensure excitement with the current roster as well as the fan base. 
 

TCU kept their roster because Sonny Dykes was known before the end of the season and the players were excited to play for him. 
 

SMU kept their players because they knew Lashlee, and believed in him. 
 

OU Is an example of worst case scenario. They also have a team full of guys that knew they could go just about anywhere they wanted. That’s not the case here. 

[outoftown]

So I said 8 wins, but I would like to change my answer to 7 as the sweet spot. 6 He gets let go. I think he gets 8 wins he moves on to another program. 8 wins means 7-1 in conference and likely a championship game. I think he wants a new start and I also think there will not be that many great options on the market this year for the established programs. Him getting to 9 wins I am sure someone will pick him up as a HC. If he wins 9, I will actually be sad to see him go, but able to live with it. Not everyone can get Lance Leipold or Matt Campbell (provided they actually want to move). And there are very few G5 juggernauts this season.

Other ADs and fan bases will not have paid close attention and think: look a guy who went .500+ at lowly UNT he got them into the conference race multiple times. They will not yet be tired at the same sentences about three phaseses and toughness selflessness etc and it will sound good to them. They will be willing to ignore the context of NT actually having invested more in the past decade than almost half of FBS, paying coaches top C-USA salaries for half a decade now and willing to ignore the pot-holes in his record of average margin of defeat and punching down much better than punching up.

SL has been a decent coach, just above middle of the road in conference. The problem with that is that he has been paid all along like a perennial contender and sometimes champion which he is not. If there is an extension it has to be the Harbough 2021 kind, where he took some of the financial risk of betting on himself with a paycut and lots of incentives. Some of the money the boosters safe can then hopefully be rerouted into a QB coach and NIL. And it needs to be without those buyout reduction clauses if the AD or president leaves. Those clauses can cause bad conflicts of interest, and it is on the board to stop the AD and president from ever putting something like that in. 

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by outoftown

[GrandGreen]

10 hours ago, MrAlien said:

If the coach is out, then you have to believe the rest of the staff is going to start looking for a new program, and players will enter the portal.  It will mean a long term rebuild.  

Of course, if Littrell is out, so is his staff.  No coach is going to not bring his own staff.  Maybe one coach would be retained, but no more. 

If you think Littrell is such a bad coach, why would the players want to leave if the new coach is perceived as better. 

A long term rebuild, it is easier than ever to rebuild a team with the portal and a great number of high schoolers that have got squeezed out by transfers. 

Again, I think Littrell has a chance to have a good year and be here next year.   

However, I also think that a new coach always instills hope and usually enthusiasm from both fans and players.  This can be lost in a hurry, but initially a hc change will bring substantially more interest in the program. 

[MrAlien]

17 hours ago, NT80 said:

TCU, USC, even Smut didn't seem to have a problem changing coaches.  Change can be a good thing, and quickly, for some programs, if you find the right replacement!

UNT is not a football power program, those programs always have talented recruits lined up.

17 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Yeah, we'll lose most of the existing coaches (I bet Cobbs remains), and some players may hit the portal.   But if an upgrade is brought in, or a guy who the players think can lead them, I bet most stay.    Heck, as we saw last offseason, even if Littrell stays, we're going to lose all-conference caliber players to the portal.  The neat thing about the portal is...?   It works both ways!   

A coaching change absolutely does not equate to a "long term rebuild".  We need look no further than the ponies in UP (Dykes) or the birds in San Antonio (Traylor) to prove this untrue.   Both exhibited rapid turnarounds.

Sure if they bring in a big name coach, more players might stick around.  However there is no indication that will happen, and players want a sure thing I am sure many are already looking around for next season. 

[untjim1995]

Yall know that I believe 7 wins gives SL an extension of at least 2 more years on his contract that expires after 2023. The Lovelace Party will be huge if his 'son' gets to stay around. So, here is what needs to happen for 7 wins:

Beat LT, FIU, and Rice at home, then win (finally) a spare bowl game against some MAC school. I don't see us winning a game at UTSA, WKU, or UAB, all of whom are waaayyyyyyy more talented than we are right now and we play awful against non-bad teams on the road (or at home, too). 

Here's the scenario that will make many on gmg.com lose their mind--we get to 6 wins in the regular season and before a bowl game, we extend him. The thought being that they want to keep recruits interested and current players/coaches from leaving. This would be just the title of the next chapter in the book "North Texas Just Doesn't Care...".

Here is where I think most older fans would leave for good--pull a Tony Benford and let SL come back in a contract year to coach his last to save money. Our recruiting would look bad compared to Texas Wesleyan or Austin College, much less anyone in FCS, G5s, or beyond. This would do it for those who have somehow fought thru the ridiculousness we have seen for years, showing everyone that what truly matters is saving money. I wouldn't care if we ever played another football game again. If we do that in 2023 with a coach who got an 8th year because it would cost to buy him out and we don't want to take the chance of losing a BMD, I'd finally join the 98% that have given up.

[2020 Sucks]

Does 7 or 8 wins make him better with fans?  No...He is still shy and a loner.

Does 7 or 8 wins make him better with playcalling? No...he's still gonna run the ball on 4th & G from the 1

Does 7 or 8 wins make him better with recruiting? No...Traylor is still going to be a better salesman

Does 7 or 8 wins make him better within the portal? No evidence thus far.

Does 7 or 8 wins make him better with the media?  No...he's still going to hate being questioned by Brett.

 

There is no scenario where UNT wins with this coach in the AAC.  It's been a good ride...time to move on.

[UNTLifer]

I didn't vote because the scenario I need wasn't listed.  I predicted this team would go 9-4 with a bowl win, but I think that is wrong.  With the CUSA championship, I will alter my prediction to 10-4.  Anything less than that, he gone.

[MeanGreenTexan]

12 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

I didn't vote because the scenario I need wasn't listed.  I predicted this team would go 9-4 with a bowl win, but I think that is wrong.  With the CUSA championship, I will alter my prediction to 10-4.  Anything less than that, he gone.

Whoa!   You have higher expectations than me!   A 10-win season!   Something he couldn't even get done with Mason Fine, Jeff Wilson, Jalen Guyton, Jaelon Darden, Rico Bussey, EJ Ejiya, Brandon Garner, Ladarius Hamilton, Rod Young, Nate Brooks, & Kemon Hall all on the same team.

[MeanGreenTexan]

20 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

Yall know that I believe 7 wins gives SL an extension of at least 2 more years on his contract that expires after 2023. The Lovelace Party will be huge if his 'son' gets to stay around. So, here is what needs to happen for 7 wins:

Beat LT, FIU, and Rice at home, then win (finally) a spare bowl game against some MAC school. I don't see us winning a game at UTSA, WKU, or UAB, all of whom are waaayyyyyyy more talented than we are right now and we play awful against non-bad teams on the road (or at home, too). 

Here's the scenario that will make many on gmg.com lose their mind--we get to 6 wins in the regular season and before a bowl game, we extend him. The thought being that they want to keep recruits interested and current players/coaches from leaving. This would be just the title of the next chapter in the book "North Texas Just Doesn't Care...".

Here is where I think most older fans would leave for good--pull a Tony Benford and let SL come back in a contract year to coach his last to save money. Our recruiting would look bad compared to Texas Wesleyan or Austin College, much less anyone in FCS, G5s, or beyond. This would do it for those who have somehow fought thru the ridiculousness we have seen for years, showing everyone that what truly matters is saving money. I wouldn't care if we ever played another football game again. If we do that in 2023 with a coach who got an 8th year because it would cost to buy him out and we don't want to take the chance of losing a BMD, I'd finally join the 98% that have given up.

If Littrell is still coaching the team for a bowl game after going 6-6, I'm going to be beside myself, joining the growing chorus of people who are calling for Wren to be held accountable as well.   
That simply CANNOT happen.

[UNTLifer]

8 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Whoa!   You have higher expectations than me!   A 10-win season!   Something he couldn't even get done with Mason Fine, Jeff Wilson, Jalen Guyton, Jaelon Darden, Rico Bussey, EJ Ejiya, Brandon Garner, Ladarius Hamilton, Rod Young, Nate Brooks, & Kemon Hall all on the same team.

My original prediction was 9-4.  I just didn't see anyone on the schedule, outside of smuT, that I thought we couldn't beat if we played up to our talent level.  I still believe that.

[Jonnyeagle]

1 minute ago, UNTLifer said:

My original prediction was 9-4.  I just didn't see anyone on the schedule, outside of smuT, that I thought we couldn't beat if we played up to our talent level.  I still believe that.

All due respect Lifer but that is a very overly optimistic evaluation, even for a lifer like yourself.  Methinks you have set the bar high for a reason no?  Cause there is no way we beat sack at their place this season and you know it.

 

[El Paso Eagle]

1 hour ago, MrAlien said:

UNT is not a football power program, those programs always have talented recruits lined up.

Has nothing to do with being a football power. 

[Matt from A700]

I want him gone regardless, but to get an extension before 2023, I think would be given with a conference championship appearance AND a bowl win; not necessarily how many total wins.

[UNTLifer]

12 minutes ago, Jonnyeagle said:

 Cause there is no way we beat sack at their place this season and you know it.

 

With all due respect, I think the attitude above is bullshit.  If you have that attitude, then stay home.

[emmitt01]

20 hours ago, MrAlien said:

If the coach is out, then you have to believe the rest of the staff is going to start looking for a new program, and players will enter the portal.  It will mean a long term rebuild.  

And yet other programs, all over the country, have found a way to pull off the miracle of surviving moving on from a coach that isn’t performing

[GrayEagle]

55 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

I didn't vote because the scenario I need wasn't listed.  I predicted this team would go 9-4 with a bowl win, but I think that is wrong.  With the CUSA championship, I will alter my prediction to 10-4.  Anything less than that, he gone.

I was about to post the same thing.  He's had his chances; time to move on.

[untjim1995]

10 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

With all due respect, I think the attitude above is bullshit.  If you have that attitude, then stay home.

Hell yeah...if you don't think we can beat UTSA on the road, as a fan, you better stay home because you aren't helping us win. I know I still regret thinking we were gonna get our asses handed to us against SMU again in early September. If I thought differently, as a fan, maybe we wouldn't have lost by multiple TDs.

[MrAlien]

Just now, emmitt01 said:

And yet other programs, all over the country, have found a way to pull off the miracle of surviving moving on from a coach that isn’t performing

UNT is not in the same boat as other programs, there are not unlimited resources to offer coaches, as well as recruits.  and how often does it work for other programs, even the big ones? 

 

[greenminer]

11 minutes ago, MrAlien said:

UNT is not in the same boat as other programs, there are not unlimited resources to offer coaches, as well as recruits.  and how often does it work for other programs, even the big ones? 

 

ASre you serious? We are spending waaaay above the G5 average.  We are not some down-trodden, broke-ass program that is surviving by the skin of our teeth a la 2001 LaMo.  Wake up.  Tons of other G5s out there with less resources that are not only carrying on, they are pushing forward.