College football teams better or worse than perception

[cousin oliver]

4. MEMPHIS (Differential: + 11.45)

SM PR/ESPN FPI Average: 44.45

Effective YPP Power Rating: 55.9

Next game: 11.5-point favorite at home vs. North Texas on Saturday

Steve's analysis: With Cincinnati, Houston, SMU and UCF garnering most of the attention in the American Athletic Conference, Memphis could sneak through the cracks. The Tigers have been somewhat forgotten in the early going, especially after a 49-23 loss to Mississippi State to start the season. However, they have rebounded nicely in the last two games, particularly defensively, and have posted Effective Stats befitting a much more respected team. In fact, their Effective YPP PR of 55.9 would be worse than just three current Big Ten teams’ Power Ratings. One thing to be wary of at this point is Memphis’ + 1.7 turnover differential. However, their time of possession rank is 125th in the country, so they could improve there. The jury is out still, but the Tigers could be an underrated favorite this week against a North Texas team that has lost its last three games ATS while allowing 133 points.

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