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12 Team CFP Expansion Confirmed


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"The 12-team model, which will follow the recommendation made by the CFP working group last summer, will consist of six conference champions and six at-large teams, sources told Nicole Auerbach of The Athletic."

Will the "Power 6" talk pushed by Aresco finally pay off and get the AAC an automatic bid? Or will it be the MWC?

Edited by MeanGreenGlory
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2 minutes ago, MeanGreen22 said:

Giving the 6 at large spots to the top ranked schools will just end up being a reason to rank G5 schools lower than they should be. You think they’ll take the 12-0 G5 school or the 9-3 SEC school. It’ll be an easy choice. Without a guaranteed spot for G5, this doesn’t move the needle for me. 

Bad take. UCF nearly got in a few years ago and Cincinnati got in just a year ago over those 9-3 SEC teams. This helps us.

"Just win, baby."

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Just now, MeanGreenGlory said:

"The 12-team model, which will follow the recommendation made by the CFP working group last summer, will consist of six conference champions and six at-large teams, sources told Nicole Auerbach of The Athletic."

Will the "Power 6" talk pushed by Aresco finally pay off and get the AAC an automatic bid? Or will it be the MWC?

It’ll be the regular season SEC champ and the SEC champ game winner lol

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Just now, GMG_Dallas said:

Bad take. UCF nearly got in a few years ago and Cincinnati got in just a year ago over those 9-3 SEC teams. This helps us.

"Just win, baby."

UCF and Cincy had to win for years to finally get a sniff. Just one bad year and you’re back to the back of the line. 

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8 minutes ago, MeanGreen22 said:

UCF and Cincy had to win for years to finally get a sniff. Just one bad year and you’re back to the back of the line. 

Win for years? UCF went 0-12 two years before going 13-0. UCF was never passed up for a 9-3 team. UCF was just out of the top 4 and Cincy made it. In a pool of 4. Add 8 teams to the list and UCF would have made it. 2015 Houston as well, IMO.

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20 minutes ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

"The 12-team model, which will follow the recommendation made by the CFP working group last summer, will consist of six conference champions and six at-large teams, sources told Nicole Auerbach of The Athletic."

Will the "Power 6" talk pushed by Aresco finally pay off and get the AAC an automatic bid? Or will it be the MWC?

 

I think I found the answer to my question. It looks like it's not an automatic bid for any particular conference, but the six highest ranked conference champions.

Per Fox Sports: "The CFB Board of Managers, which voted unanimously on expansion, is made up of 11 members, including university presidents and chancellors. The board has approved a 12-team CFP model, which would consist of the six highest-ranked conference champions, and six at-large teams, per ESPN."

 

I personally like that better than auto-bids for a set list of conferences. It's definitely more of an uphill battle for non-P5 conferences, but it feels more fair than all P5s + AAC or MWC getting the six auto bids.

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3 minutes ago, dml7007 said:

Here is examples of how the playoffs would look like.

2014

• Alabama (1) — first-round bye
• Oregon (2) — first-round bye
• Florida State (3) — first-round bye
• Ohio State (4) — first-round bye

•No. 5 Baylor* vs. No. 12 Boise State (winner plays Ohio State)
•No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 Kansas State (winner plays Florida State)
•No. 7 Mississippi State vs. No. 10 Arizona (winner plays Oregon)
•No. 8 Michigan State vs. No. 9 Mississippi (winner plays Alabama)

*Baylor and TCU shared the 2014 Big 12 title, but for these purposes, the championship was awarded to Baylor due to a higher CFP ranking

2015

• Clemson (1) — first-round bye
• Alabama (2) — first-round bye
• Michigan State (3) — first-round bye
• Oklahoma (4) — first-round bye

No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 Houston (winner plays Oklahoma)
• No. 6 Stanford vs. No. 11 TCU (winner plays Michigan State)
• No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 North Carolina (winner plays Alabama)
• No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 9 Florida State (winner plays Clemson)

2016

• Alabama (1) — first-round bye
• Clemson (2) — first-round bye
• Washington (3) — first-round bye
• Penn State (4) — first-round bye

• No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Western Michigan (winner plays Penn State)
• No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 Florida State (winner plays Washington)
• No. 7 Oklahoma vs. No. 10 Colorado (winner plays Clemson)
• No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 9 USC (winner plays Alabama)

2017

• Clemson (1) — first-round bye
• Oklahoma (2) — first-round bye
• Georgia (3) — first-round bye
• Ohio State (4) — first-round bye

• No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 UCF (winner plays Ohio State)
• No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 Washington (winner plays Georgia)
• No. 7 Auburn vs. No. 10 Miami (winner plays Oklahoma)
• No. 8 USC vs. No. 9 Penn State (winner plays Clemson)

2018

• Alabama (1) — first-round bye
• Clemson (2) — first-round bye
• Oklahoma (3) — first-round bye
• Ohio State (4) — first-round bye

• No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Penn State (winner plays Ohio State)
• No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 11 LSU (winner plays Oklahoma)
• No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 Florida (winner plays Clemson)
• No. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 Washington (winner plays Alabama)

 

2019

• LSU (1) — first-round bye
• Ohio State (2) — first-round bye
• Clemson (3) — first-round bye
• Oklahoma (4) — first-round bye

• No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 12 Memphis (winner plays Oklahoma)
• No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Utah (winner plays Clemson)
• No. 7 Baylor vs. No. 10 Penn State (winner plays Ohio State)
• No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 9 Florida (winner plays LSU)

2020

• Alabama (1) — first-round bye
• Clemson (2) — first-round bye
• Ohio State (3) — first-round bye
• Oklahoma (4) — first-round bye

• No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Coastal Carolina (winner plays Oklahoma)
• No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Indiana (winner plays Ohio State)
• No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Iowa State (winner plays Clemson)
• No. 8 Cincinnati vs No. 9 Georgia (winner plays Alabama)

 

2020 shows that 2 G5 teams could get in.

https://www.si.com/college/2021/06/10/college-football-playoff-12-teams-last-seven-years

 

Thank you for posting this.

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14 minutes ago, UNT Texas Hooligan said:

This is only bad for the P5 that don't want to share any of the pie. I don't see how this can be seen as a bad thing at all for us and our conference (American).

I'm a pragmatic pessimist. I see far more negatives than positives. Most bowls are only supported through ESPN. Do you think UNT gets a bowl invite last year with an expanded 12 team playoff? I don't unless ESPN gives up the bowls and CBS or Fox swoop in. I think a G5 Playoff happening will be better than this expansion. 

Edited by LitMedallion
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2 minutes ago, LitMedallion said:

Do you think UNT gets a bowl invite last year with an expanded 12 game playoff?

We've had too many bowl games for a while now in college football. Would I rather win the conference and have a shot at the playoffs than playing in the afterthought.com bowl game? Heck yeah!

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Be ready for a lot of the pollsters to start "penalizing" G5 teams' schedules more in order to justify ranking them lower.  It's going to take a team like Cincy to beat a P5 power along the way for them to remain in the conversation.

 

6 minutes ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

 

I think I found the answer to my question. It looks like it's not an automatic bid for any particular conference, but the six highest ranked conference champions.

Per Fox Sports: "The CFB Board of Managers, which voted unanimously on expansion, is made up of 11 members, including university presidents and chancellors. The board has approved a 12-team CFP model, which would consist of the six highest-ranked conference champions, and six at-large teams, per ESPN."

 

I personally like that better than auto-bids for a set list of conferences. It's definitely more of an uphill battle for non-P5 conferences, but it feels more fair than all P5s + AAC or MWC getting the six auto bids.

Hmm.  OK.  This is better news, and likely VERY GOOD news for us & the MWC champs both when the PAC12 folds & is absorbed by the B1G & Big12 in a couple of years.

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21 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Win for years? UCF went 0-12 two years before going 13-0. UCF was never passed up for a 9-3 team. UCF was just out of the top 4 and Cincy made it. In a pool of 4. Add 8 teams to the list and UCF would have made it. 2015 Houston as well, IMO.

The point was voting can (and let’s be honest, probably will) be skewed when it gets closer to the playoff. That G5 school on the fridge or the SEC school.. money starts talking. 
 

Will this system be better than it currently is? Yeah. Seems that way. Just doesn’t move me enough. 

Edited by MeanGreen22
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2 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

This is better news, and likely VERY GOOD news for us & the MWC champs both when the PAC12 folds & is absorbed by the B1G & Big12 in a couple of years.

Time for people to open their pocketbooks. I feel like this sets the stage for 6 Super Conferences, honestly.

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5 minutes ago, LitMedallion said:

I'm a pragmatic pessimist. I see far more negatives than positives. Most bowls are only supported through ESPN. Do you think UNT gets a bowl invite last year with an expanded 12 game playoff? I don't unless ESPN gives up the bowls and CBS or Fox swoop in. I think a G5 Playoff happening will be better than this expansion. 

I’m all for less bowls and more games that matter. The number of bowls has watered down the meaning of bowls anyway. Give me parity and the potential for a George Mason or St. Peter’s over more bowl games any day

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5 minutes ago, DentonLurker said:

We've had too many bowl games for a while now in college football. Would I rather win the conference and have a shot at the playoffs than playing in the afterthought.com bowl game? Heck yeah!

I get your point, but being who I am, money is harder to come by when the team isn't playing. 

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22 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Win for years? UCF went 0-12 two years before going 13-0. UCF was never passed up for a 9-3 team. UCF was just out of the top 4 and Cincy made it. In a pool of 4. Add 8 teams to the list and UCF would have made it. 2015 Houston as well, IMO.

Yes and went 12-1 with a Fiesta Bowl win 2 years before that.

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4 minutes ago, MeanGreen22 said:

The point was voting can (and let’s be honest, probably will) be skewed when it gets closer to the playoff. That G5 school on the fridge or the SEC school.. money starts talking. 
 

Is it better than it currently is? Yeah. Seems that way. 

It's still a selection committee at the end of the day. 

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11 minutes ago, DentonLurker said:

Time for people to open their pocketbooks. I feel like this sets the stage for 6 Super Conferences, honestly.

Eh,
I dunno if I'd go that far.   
More like 4 (at most), or ultimately 2 Super Conferences.    After B1G & Big12 finish decimating the Pac12 as their TV extension deals continue to struggle, the SEC will raid the ACC when their TV deals are up as well (ant possibly grab some other Big12 schools.   

Now that could leave some cool "leftover" schools looking for homes and they could maybe join up with the AAC & MWC to make some fun football conferences... but I don't think we'll see the AAC & MWC sitting at the same table as the B1G or SEC.

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40 minutes ago, Cr1028 said:

Yes and went 12-1 with a Fiesta Bowl win 2 years before that.

The comment I replied to implied a 12-0 G5 team would be passed over by a 9-3 SEC team. How many G5 teams have gone undefeated through the regular season since the start of the college football playoffs? I can think of 5 (Coastal Carolina, UCF twice, Cincy, Western Michigan). Now how many 2-loss teams have made the playoffs? Zero. Each of these undefeated G5s were passed up by single loss P5s except for Cincy who obviously made the playoffs.

While I understand why it's frustrating as a fan, the facts don't support the notion that a 3-loss P5 would make a 12-team, or a 4-team, playoff over an undefeated G5.

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It offers a glimmer of hope. But the two big conferences will some how still influence (money) who gets to sit at the table. I hope those two conferences begin to eat there own. I hope this has already started with the jealously of the NIL monies of Texas and ATM by none other than Saban/ Alabama. Maybe one day college football with come back to earth.

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