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How important is UTEP game in setting direction for the season?

NT80

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Mike Jackson Grand Master

Mike Jackson

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Really hard to quantify but if things go as expected in the other games.  Every normal year you get some unexpected wins a some unexpected losses.  I expect a lost against SMU week 2 regardless of what happens in El Paso.    So if I am penciling in an L for week 2 starting off the year 0-2 will be horrible.  A serious behind the scenes vetting for the next coach starts week 3 of the season.  If players feel that then it could snowball.  I don’t think we have ever had a more important season opener that will likely impact MULTIPLE season not just 2022.  If anyone can think of a season opener since 1995 that had a multiple season impact, please share.

Edited by Mike Jackson
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NT80 Grand Master

NT80

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55 minutes ago, Coffee and TV said:

Sorry I missed the memo but why are we opening with a conference game? Was this a scheduling quirk because someone cancelled on UTEP or something? 

USM, Marshall, and Old Dominion made an agreement in late March to leave CUSA early (now).  Thus our schedule had to be adjusted for losing any of them on it.  It worked out best for us to go to UTEP in zero week instead of in late Nov. and I think we added FIU as a home game replacement.

https://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/story/sports/2022/03/29/usm-marshall-old-dominion-reach-agreement-leave-cusa-sun-belt/7211201001/

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NT80 Grand Master

NT80

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5 minutes ago, Mike Jackson said:

Really hard to quantify but if things go as expected in the other games.  Every normal year you get some unexpected wins a some unexpected losses.  I expect a lost against SMU week 2 regardless of what happens in El Paso.    So if I am penciling in an L for week 2 starting off the year 0-2 will be horrible.  A serious behind the scenes vetting for the next coach starts week 3 of the season.  If players feel that then it could snowball.  I don’t think we have ever had a more important season opener that will likely impact MULTIPLE season not just 2022.  If anyone can think of a season opener since 1995 that had a multiple season impact, please share.

Wren implied in Harry's podcast that he didn't like removing a coach in mid-season; example was Benford.  But Benford should have never been allowed to start year 5.  Wren was new, and hadn't endured the losing in that program the fans did the previous four seasons.

Anyway, his thought was if you remove a HC during the season the players and asst coaches start thinking about other things in their future and not on current games anymore.  In other words check-out.  But if this football season starts 1-4, the way it easily could, then I can see the same thing happening regardless, and it does snowball. 

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Mike Jackson Grand Master

Mike Jackson

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2 hours ago, NT80 said:

Anyway, his thought was if you remove a HC during the season the players and asst coaches start thinking about other things in their future and not on current games anymore.  In other words check-out.  But if this football season starts 1-4, the way it easily could, then I can see the same thing happening regardless, and it does snowball. 

Absolutely great point and exactly why I didn’t think we could afford NOT to let him go after the season.  That in combination with probably not having proven QB to start AAC play and head coach that has not proven in 4 years that can find a decent replacement for a proven starter.

Edited by Mike Jackson
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Coffee and TV Veteran

Coffee and TV

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3 hours ago, NT80 said:

USM, Marshall, and Old Dominion made an agreement in late March to leave CUSA early (now).  Thus our schedule had to be adjusted for losing any of them on it.  It worked out best for us to go to UTEP in zero week instead of in late Nov. and I think we added FIU as a home game replacement.

https://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/story/sports/2022/03/29/usm-marshall-old-dominion-reach-agreement-leave-cusa-sun-belt/7211201001/

Thanks, I knew it had to be because of some dumb conference shuffle. 

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cousin oliver Grand Master

cousin oliver

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11 hours ago, Mike Jackson said:

Absolutely great point and exactly why I didn’t think we could afford NOT to let him go after the season.  That in combination with probably not having proven QB to start AAC play and head coach that has not proven in 4 years that can find a decent replacement for a proven starter.

Wren said on Harry’s podcast that he wanted to evaluate coaches throughout the season but I also feel like with the facility improvements they want finances are playing a role as well.  Also it seems like getting McCasland’s deal done was a top priority as well so that effected the budget as well.

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Mike Jackson Grand Master

Mike Jackson

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On 7/22/2022 at 8:42 AM, cousin oliver said:

Wren said on Harry’s podcast that he wanted to evaluate coaches throughout the season but I also feel like with the facility improvements they want finances are playing a role as well.  Also it seems like getting McCasland’s deal done was a top priority as well so that effected the budget as well.

I absolutely get it but this budget decision may short term purdent but a long term disaster.  Now if he thinks that our program is safe from being completely left behind programs like UTSA and AAC level conference will be our highest level fine.  But I would rather risk it all in this unstable version of FBS than play it safe.  Because I think it is much more likely that any school that isn't a huge brand or not in a P5 conference after Big 10, Pac 12 and Big 12 finalize media deals going into the next decade,  may find that FBS Football is financially unsupportable.  I am happy that we kept the basketball coach.  But unless the team has a few sweet 16 appearances in the next 7 years, I don't see their success pushing the bottom line for athletics forward much.

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