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USC and UCLA to the Big 10


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21 minutes ago, wardly said:

Once the dust REALLY settles the BIG 10 and SEC should have at least 1/3 rd of the existing 130 D1 athletic programs. They will then leave the NCAA and form their own organization taking the major Bowl games with them as well as the playoff system. The other 90 programs will become Division 1A and 1AA will remain the same. The slimmed down version of 1A [i.e. gutted] will have the minor bowls and can establish their own playoff system similar to the existing 1AA format. The NCAA as a governing body will probably  cease to exist. It's all about the money, paying players as employees, and affording to have the resources to fund Olympic sports. If I am President of a university that is not one of the " fortunate forty" their is no way I am putting money into bricks and sticks or adding new programs until conference realignment is completed and new tv contracts in place.

My guess -

  • The Football portion of FBS will break off into its's own governing organization
  • There will be two divisions but with minimums on how much they must spend on football - low end P5's and most G5's will be in the second group. Low budget P5's will have to invest more of go FCS
  • The NCAA will still govern all other sports. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Wag Tag said:

If ND says yes then they go after WU, Oregon and Stanford, done! Brig 12 gets the leftovers! AAC and MWC should form some type of alliance.

They are AAU schools which had been important to the Big10 with the possible exception of ND. Still think North Carolina and Duke might slip in

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I don't think they do. As I mentioned before, with the addition of USC and UCLA all BIG 10 programs will now get an annual payout from FOX of $100 million. This is about money,and none of the remaining PAC 12 programs can bring that amount to the table. However Notre Dame can. Also, we might want to view present conference realignment as somewhat temporary. As the SEC and BIG 10 continue to grow they may set an annual athletic budget requirement on its members to ensure their investing "in the  business" instead of just clipping a $100 million coupon every year. Not exactly Apples to Apples, but didn't the MAC boot either Temple of U Mass out a 6 or 7 years ago for not keeping up with the Jones? It's all a guess at this point in time but I don't see how these changes help UNT other that to define our place in the pecking order. UT is Division 1, UNT is Division 1A, and Lamar is Division 1AA. I assume that form follows function and in the future all three divisions will have their own governing body, certainly Division 1 programs whom have outgrown the NCAA. Hey, who knows.

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6 minutes ago, wardly said:

I don't think they do. As I mentioned before, with the addition of USC and UCLA all BIG 10 programs will now get an annual payout from FOX of $100 million. This is about money,and none of the remaining PAC 12 programs can bring that amount to the table. However Notre Dame can. Also, we might want to view present conference realignment as somewhat temporary. As the SEC and BIG 10 continue to grow they may set an annual athletic budget requirement on its members to ensure their investing "in the  business" instead of just clipping a $100 million coupon every year. Not exactly Apples to Apples, but didn't the MAC boot either Temple of U Mass out a 6 or 7 years ago for not keeping up with the Jones? It's all a guess at this point in time but I don't see how these changes help UNT other that to define our place in the pecking order. UT is Division 1, UNT is Division 1A, and Lamar is Division 1AA. I assume that form follows function and in the future all three divisions will have their own governing body, certainly Division 1 programs whom have outgrown the NCAA. Hey, who knows.

Agree the split is going to happen. I just think they will keep more schools so that the top schools do not have to play every game against another top school. While the Alums will like the split, how happy will they be when their team is only winning 3 games a year.

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12 minutes ago, wardly said:

I don't think they do. As I mentioned before, with the addition of USC and UCLA all BIG 10 programs will now get an annual payout from FOX of $100 million. This is about money,and none of the remaining PAC 12 programs can bring that amount to the table. However Notre Dame can. Also, we might want to view present conference realignment as somewhat temporary. As the SEC and BIG 10 continue to grow they may set an annual athletic budget requirement on its members to ensure their investing "in the  business" instead of just clipping a $100 million coupon every year. Not exactly Apples to Apples, but didn't the MAC boot either Temple of U Mass out a 6 or 7 years ago for not keeping up with the Jones? It's all a guess at this point in time but I don't see how these changes help UNT other that to define our place in the pecking order. UT is Division 1, UNT is Division 1A, and Lamar is Division 1AA. I assume that form follows function and in the future all three divisions will have their own governing body, certainly Division 1 programs whom have outgrown the NCAA. Hey, who knows.

This should force a G5 play off with a National champion? 

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1 minute ago, Wag Tag said:

This should force a G5 play off with a National champion? 

I think there will be two playoff structures in the new league (whatever they call it). The choice for G5's who don't like it will in all likelihood be moving to FCS

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4 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Agree the split is going to happen. I just think they will keep more schools so that the top schools do not have to play every game against another top school. While the Alums will like the split, how happy will they be when their team is only winning 3 games a year.

Well, they will be as happy as we are winning 3 1A games plus a 1AA game a year.

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5 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Agree the split is going to happen. I just think they will keep more schools so that the top schools do not have to play every game against another top school. While the Alums will like the split, how happy will they be when their team is only winning 3 games a year.

This is what will cause stress on these Big Dog programs.  They are used to 7 home games and 10 wins.  Not going to happen as often playing other Big Dogs in conference games.  Expect them to schedule a lot of G5 OOC games.

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Here is some interesting Q&A about PAC12 near and future issues regarding the remaining schools.

https://tucson.com/sports/pac-12-hotline/pac-12-hotline-mailbag-george-kliavkoff-s-culpability-expansion-options-and-valuing-the-arizona-schools/article_18e37ad2-fa2d-11ec-b114-1b54968e2e17.html

One interesting take that Wren should get serious with, if we ever hope to move further up the food chain:   

"The size of your media market matters far less than it did a decade ago...Value is based on the ability of your football program to drive ratings and claim prime broadcast windows."

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1 hour ago, NT80 said:

Here is some interesting Q&A about PAC12 near and future issues regarding the remaining schools.

https://tucson.com/sports/pac-12-hotline/pac-12-hotline-mailbag-george-kliavkoff-s-culpability-expansion-options-and-valuing-the-arizona-schools/article_18e37ad2-fa2d-11ec-b114-1b54968e2e17.html

One interesting take that Wren should get serious with, if we ever hope to move further up the food chain:   

"The size of your media market matters far less than it did a decade ago...Value is based on the ability of your football program to drive ratings and claim prime broadcast windows."

Yet when the AAC expanded it was media market driven. Dallas, Houston, San Antonio,Birmingham, South Florida, Charlotte. Perhaps UTSA and UAB can turn on a few tv's, but I doubt Rice or some of the other 3 programs can.

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35 minutes ago, wardly said:

Yet when the AAC expanded it was media market driven. Dallas, Houston, San Antonio,Birmingham, South Florida, Charlotte. Perhaps UTSA and UAB can turn on a few tv's, but I doubt Rice or some of the other 3 programs can.

NT, Rice, and UTSA were also added by the AAC to keep the MWC from expanding into the major Texas metro areas.

Here is a take on the Birmingham media market from an Oregon St fan board:

"Someone linked a NYTimes article earlier. It was interesting. Basically it said it's not the size of the TV market but the amount of fans that will search out the game. It compared New York city & Birmingham AL from a college football perspective. I don't remember the numbers exactly but it was something like this. NYC has 11M people. Birmingham has 1.2M. 10% of NYC are college football fans giving them 1.1M fans. 85% of Birmingham are fans . . 930K fans. Birmingham is nearly as big. And in NYC those 1.1M are spread out among UConn, Syracuse, Rutgers, Notre Dame and much of the Big10. In Birmingham they are almost all Alabama or Auburn fans."

 

Edited by NT80
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11 hours ago, DeepGreen said:

I’ll wait for ArkStateFan to weigh in on this subject.  The man knows what he’s talking about.

He chimed in on page 5 of the thread. 

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17 hours ago, NT80 said:

This is what will cause stress on these Big Dog programs.  They are used to 7 home games and 10 wins.  Not going to happen as often playing other Big Dogs in conference games.  Expect them to schedule a lot of G5 OOC games.

If this does cause a split and they make their own playoff I would like to see the rest of us refuse to play them in OOC. They can play a full 12 team schedule amongst each other. I'm not deluded enough to think we have any power, but it's at least one of the areas we have a little leverage in. 

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Here is a summary why I think this the beginning of the end.  The leadership can't see past the money carrot in front of their noses right now.   

14 hours ago, NT80 said:

NT, Rice, and UTSA were also added by the AAC to keep the MWC from expanding into the major Texas metro areas.

Here is a take on the Birmingham media market from an Oregon St fan board:

"Someone linked a NYTimes article earlier. It was interesting. Basically it said it's not the size of the TV market but the amount of fans that will search out the game. It compared New York city & Birmingham AL from a college football perspective. I don't remember the numbers exactly but it was something like this. NYC has 11M people. Birmingham has 1.2M. 10% of NYC are college football fans giving them 1.1M fans. 85% of Birmingham are fans . . 930K fans. Birmingham is nearly as big. And in NYC those 1.1M are spread out among UConn, Syracuse, Rutgers, Notre Dame and much of the Big10. In Birmingham they are almost all Alabama or Auburn fans."

 

That quote unfortunately is indicative of how the leadership is not analyzing CFB markets imo.  Otherwise they wouldn't be making some of the moves they are making.  

Northeast coast people have the least interest in College Football.  Otherwise Syracuse and Pitt would have been gobbled up by the Big 10 with Penn State.      I don't recall Rutgers ever being good except for a very brief stint and even then the increase revenue that winning did wasn't enough to retain hot coaches.  The viewership for these the markets they are "adding" are the same.  You really think USC football fans weren't watching Ohio State vs (Michigan, MSU, Wisconsin, Penn State) when both teams are ranked?  I believe they are growing the pie less that they will be slicing it up.  However the decline won't show up until the ink on these deals are long dried.     There will be a financial reckoning the next time these media rights deal are negotiated.   Yes they are getting the broadcast rights to a few more "good media" games.   But they are going to get a lot of turds for instance UCLA vs (all the midtier and lower Big 10 teams) will be turds rating wise.  Advertisers will see those rating figures and balk at the commercial placement fee.  

On 7/3/2022 at 1:36 PM, El Paso Eagle said:

My guess -

  • The Football portion of FBS will break off into its's own governing organization
  • There will be two divisions but with minimums on how much they must spend on football - low end P5's and most G5's will be in the second group. Low budget P5's will have to invest more of go FCS
  • The NCAA will still govern all other sports. 

I think you are halfway correct.  They are killing this goose with greed imo.  I don't know how the media outlets will view a drastic reorganization after the diminished returns they will experience halfway through these new rights contracts.  They are either going to end up paying these players outright and separating from the NCAA or taking a step back.   College football is a regional sport and they refuse to analyze and organize it that way.  Strong regional interest drives national interest not the reverse.  People outside of Texas and Oklahoma want to watch the Red River Shootout because of the passion of the local fans making it exciting.  Excitement means investment in the programs in talent, facilities and money.  All those things are built upon history.  So the SEC addition of UT and OU make sense.  These secondary moves just don't imo.   The Big 10 adding UCLA vs USC might cost them the Thanksgiving weekend rivalry games if they have a conference semi-final.  

As I am writing this I am writing this I am listening to Colin Cowherd explain how Iowa, and Wisconsin fan are going to fill up the LA stadiums for a regular season Big 10 game.  I think that is comically incorrect especially if those teams roll into the LA unranked or if USC is bad.  The numbers will be even worse for UCLA games versus those teams.  Also I am wondering how hard Fox will negotiate with the Big 10.  It isn't like there another big entity that can offer them the same size check and broadcast outlets.  NBC Universal isn't that plays right into Notre Dame's advantage.   Disney/ABC might do they really want to invest heavily in both the SEC and Big 10?  Disney's balance sheet isn't rock solid and bidding too much to be the exclusive outlet for all CFB's biggest brands financially complicates pitching for NFL Sunday Ticket.  You can lose money on one of those properties and survive.   Colin is also citing "lack of big games" problem with CFB basing that looking at the first 2 weekends of games this season.   Why are those games "small" the very schools he thinks are so valuable are scheduling G5 at home to beat up on and even if one of those G5 teams upsets that big boy school the game will be dismissed in the playoff/bowl selection process.  That won't change with conference realignment. 

17 hours ago, NT80 said:

Here is some interesting Q&A about PAC12 near and future issues regarding the remaining schools.

https://tucson.com/sports/pac-12-hotline/pac-12-hotline-mailbag-george-kliavkoff-s-culpability-expansion-options-and-valuing-the-arizona-schools/article_18e37ad2-fa2d-11ec-b114-1b54968e2e17.html

One interesting take that Wren should get serious with, if we ever hope to move further up the food chain:   

"The size of your media market matters far less than it did a decade ago...Value is based on the ability of your football program to drive ratings and claim prime broadcast windows."

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It’s going to a high priced cocktail party. Eventually even the eye candy gets boring. 

As a college football fan I like the traditional rivalries. Those egg bowls are safe, but what about the civil war? The holy war happening in September was whack, but that game comes back into play if the utes and cougars end up in the big 12. Texas Texas A&M will be fun again. But the Apple Cup May go sideways too? 

it’s like change for the sake of change. Or for the sake of tv. Even these earthquake moves are losing luster.

What college football needs to preserve is the perception of Access. In the English Premier League teams like Norwich City and Watford can work their way up to the top league with the perception of winning the EPL title. Reality is that City, Liverpool, Chelsea or Man United are going to routinely win this title. But they keep the towns supporting Stoke City, Fulham and Bournemouth filling the stadiums because of their perceived Access to the title. You don’t increase interest by deleting program’s access or perceived access. 

Why even have conferences anymore? We should be playing Baylor Texas Tech Okie State and TCU more often. Conferences are beginning to choke the energy out of college football and the elimination of perceived access will kill it as we know it, for the time being. 

Just keep on building and let the high priced cocktail party food fight carry on.

GMG

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10 hours ago, Green Otaku said:

If this does cause a split and they make their own playoff I would like to see the rest of us refuse to play them in OOC. They can play a full 12 team schedule amongst each other. I'm not deluded enough to think we have any power, but it's at least one of the areas we have a little leverage in. 

I don’t think refusing to play them is the answer. That would only separate them from us even more.
G5s have to continue playing the power schools to show they can compete. Plus, who are we to turn down million dollar checks? 

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13 hours ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

I don’t think refusing to play them is the answer. That would only separate them from us even more.
G5s have to continue playing the power schools to show they can compete. Plus, who are we to turn down million dollar checks? 

I agree with this. If anything, I think the price tag just goes up.

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15 hours ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

I don’t think refusing to play them is the answer. That would only separate them from us even more.
G5s have to continue playing the power schools to show they can compete. Plus, who are we to turn down million dollar checks? 

If they have a new and completely separate playoff system with no way of us ever competing I hate to break it to you, but we are already as separate from them as possible. Nothing we do or accomplish would ever matter as we would have zero access. If these schools choose to break away, let them break away fully from everything else. 

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