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USC and UCLA to the Big 10


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17 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

Honesty, why have college football fans loved college football over the NFL?  Tradition, rivalries, watching players develop over their 4-year college careers, the fact that these are amateur students playing primarily for the love of the game rather than mercenaries playing for a paycheck.  All of that seems to be going out the window in a very short span of time.

Yep.  It all started a few years ago when Northwestern started bitching.  Then the dominoes began to fall.

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28 minutes ago, ADLER said:

I don't foresee this happening, at least not in the stated order.

nostradamus occult

1) Follow the money trail, 2) Follow the whims and required appeasement of the "Golden Child", 3) See what concessions will be wanted by USC and UCLA.

The BIG is attempting to set itself to be unquestionably the nation's premier college football conference, and this is all an attempt to form a more marketable alliance than the SEC. TV money steers this competition.

Notre Dame has it's sports parked in the ACC for scheduling but football is still independent, and would stay that way unless sufficiently pressured to change. Their big football rivalries are with BIG schools, USC, Stanford, and the service academies. Notre Dame can actually be pressured to move to the BIG now that all of their major rivals, outside of the service academies, are potentially joining that league. Even Notre Dame cannot risk losing all their rivals.

For political reasons it would be extremely difficult for UCLA to outright ditch Cal. Notre Dame will want Stanford added. USC also wants to maintain their longstanding rivalries with Notre Dame, Stanford and Cal. They all get what they want. Washington and Oregon will both be included because of their strong sports programs and national following.

All this leaves the BIG as the most marketable, and potentially most dominant, athletics conference with these 21 members, and other open spots to be eventually filled by potential candidates among Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, and Virginia. (yes, Missouri would jump at the opportunity, and the BIG would relish the slap to the SEC)

The SEC will be forced to counteract with the additions of among Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia, Miami, and maybe a Big XII leftover. Notre Dame would be their ultimate victory but I don't see that happening.

The rest of us, locked out of the two "Super Conferences" are relegated to second tier status and will all make the best of the situation presented.

 

 

 

Have a feeling the TV contract for the Pac12 will not be as good as the Big12. Fox Sports is the main player and their love for the Pac12 was directly aimed at USC/UCLA. Oregon and maybe Washington and Stanford were OK, and the rest marked up as cost of business. Oregon will be gone. To big of a risk that the SEC and Big10 do their on thing and they are left out. And, you have to be the powers that be at Nike are calling in every favor they have. The remaining conference will be no where are good/valuable as the Big12. 

Can not believe the SEC is going to stand by and make no additional moves. If they raid the ACC, then you set up an opportunity for the Big12 and ACC to combine, and then the PACXX is basically a leftover.

As for ND, the money will have to be great for them to make the move and break away from NBC, and even more face the reality that they will be the 3rd-4th  best team in the Big10 or SEC in most years.
 

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1 hour ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

The B1G has already told these three schools, "No."

No, they haven't said No, as in NO.  They said Not Yet, as in waiting for ND to commit first, then they will be next...

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Has the Power 5 just gone to a Power 2? It sure looks that way. Sec and Big 10  can add as many teams as they want and will totally dominate college sports and money! The NCAA will be told  to take a hike! 

Edited by Wag Tag
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16 minutes ago, Wag Tag said:

Has the Power 5 just gone to a Power 2? It sure looks that way. Sec and Big 10  can add as many teams as they want and will totally dominate college sports and money! The NCAA will be told  to take a hike! 

For today at least we have the P2, then the N3 (next 3) and then the G5

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1 hour ago, NT80 said:

No, they haven't said No, as in NO.  They said Not Yet, as in waiting for ND to commit first, then they will be next...

Then the B1G leadership isn't very bright.  They had Mizzou begging at their doorstep 10-12 years ago; now I imagine they'd have a hard time prying them away from the SEC.

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2 hours ago, NT80 said:

No, they haven't said No, as in NO.  They said Not Yet, as in waiting for ND to commit first, then they will be next...

Interesting comment from a young man on you tube who put a lot of research into his evaluation of remaining PAC 12 programs, which is that none of them meet BIG 10 academic requirements other than Stanford , whom they will only invite if they can pair with ND, who does not meet those standards but are an exception. The rest of the conference brings nothing to the table regarding markets nor academics. Also, the only PAC programs the BIG 12 are interested in now are Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado, while the PAC 12 would take any BIG 12 member they could get. Last year the BIG 12 approached the PAC about a merger of the conferences and were rebuffed. Now the BIG 12 is in the drivers seat and feel 16 schools is the right number. Should any of the four BIG 12 targets take a pass they might be leapfrogged to a PAC member who thinks differently. In summary, when the smoke clears the PAC and ACC both might be toast while the BIG 12 lives on.

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1 hour ago, wardly said:

ND, who does not meet those standards but are an exception. 

The guy to whom you are listening isn't worth listening to.  ND is one of the most highly-ranked universities in the country--according to U.S. News and World Report, only 1 behind Cornell (Ivy League) and Rice.

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29 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

The guy to whom you are listening isn't worth listening to.  ND is one of the most highly-ranked universities in the country--according to U.S. News and World Report, only 1 behind Cornell (Ivy League) and Rice.

I painted a broad brush regarding Notre Dame academics and stand corrected .The BIG 10 prizes membership in the AAU of which all universities in the conference are members except Nebraska, which was when it joined but is no longer. Notre Dame, a private Catholic school, is also not a member. What I meant to convey is that will not prevent the Irish from joining the BIG 10 should they wish but might prevent others. Regarding overall academic rankings, where you stand seems to depend upon what magazine is doing the rankings.Regardless, that doesn't diminish the you tube's monitor guessing that he would expect Stanford to be invited should Notre Dame join the BIG 10 leaving Oregon and Washington out. As with all Conference expansions its a guess and by golly. My biggest surprise was when UNT was invited to join the AAC when the conference already had SMU in the same market getting much more media coverage that we ever have.

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On 7/1/2022 at 2:15 PM, SMU2006 said:

PAC desperately needs exposure in the CST to survive.  Academically it fits well with the PAC.  From a football perspective we've been ranked in the Top 20 in each of the last three seasons and will break ground on a $100m renovation and expansion of Ford.

Tons of PAC alums live in DFW.  Is it a slam dunk?  No.  But I'd wager SMU is higher on the food chain for the PAC than Baylor, UH, Tech and the other academic space cadets of the Big 12.

I was with you up until the last part when you just went full SMU. How do you figure that those schools are below SMU?! Good luck to you. 

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On 7/1/2022 at 4:31 PM, untjim1995 said:

I think the B1G and USC/UCLA only made this deal with the reality that other teams in the West are gonna be there, too. I believe that Oregon/Washington/Stanford are in for sure, while adding in some combo of Notre Dame, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and Kansas. All are AAU research institutions, main schools in their states, and all are connected to bigger TV markets. That's 24 teams. 

The SEC will then add in the following from the ACC when they can: Miami, FSU, Clemson, UNC, Duke, UVa, Va Tech, and either Louisville, Georgia Tech, or NC State.

 

 

B9B0BA39-CD3C-4F88-96D5-785EA8CEFEB9.jpeg

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On 7/1/2022 at 3:10 PM, rcade said:

If two superconferences achieve total domination, do the fans of other schools keep watching their games as much as we do now? The bigger the moat between them and everybody else, the less interest I have in swimming across.

 

3 hours ago, wardly said:

Interesting comment from a young man on you tube who put a lot of research into his evaluation of remaining PAC 12 programs, which is that none of them meet BIG 10 academic requirements other than Stanford , whom they will only invite if they can pair with ND, who does not meet those standards but are an exception. The rest of the conference brings nothing to the table regarding markets nor academics. Also, the only PAC programs the BIG 12 are interested in now are Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado, while the PAC 12 would take any BIG 12 member they could get. Last year the BIG 12 approached the PAC about a merger of the conferences and were rebuffed. Now the BIG 12 is in the drivers seat and feel 16 schools is the right number. Should any of the four BIG 12 targets take a pass they might be leapfrogged to a PAC member who thinks differently. In summary, when the smoke clears the PAC and ACC both might be toast while the BIG 12 lives on.

Wardly I think it is all wishful thinking for fans of all but the 20-36 most marketable CFB brand schools.  There used to be a time when P5 also-rans legitimately had a path to the national championship by winning their conference. Now with 18 to 20 team or more team conferences there is no way to eliminate subjectivity from the conference championship process unless you have a conference playoff.   Can you schedule that playoff for 3 weeks in November without killing a ton of tradition?  Probably not.   All this expansion is happening without no consideration of the product they offered in the past compared to what the product will be in the future.  Are they totally eliminating non-conference games?  Even with 13 game all in conference games that will leave 5 conference rivals you play once every 5 years.   The numbers are even worse the bigger the conference gets and if you allow non-conference scheduling.  This utter garbage so tired of the Talking Heads on TV trying to defend/explain this as anything else than a pure money grab.  I think at this point I am 100% in favor of paying these players out right.  Pay them and then allow them to pay for their education to maintain their eligibility to play.   No discounted tuition for out-of-state players because they should pay out of state tuition out the salary.   Same thing with private institutions.  The private school tuition is the private school tuition whether you are an unpaid volunteer walk-on or the 5 star QB with a 6 figure salary..  Disconnect football from the NCAA and the title IX requirements.  Let’s stop all the fakery, if they’re going to kill it making it corporate stop doing it half ass and let the free market determine the viability.  It will be nice for a couple of years but when 70% or more FBS programs Drop football or drop down level even mighty will feel the pain.  Because when that 70% drop down you can’t have paid employees/ semi pro players, playing real amateurs without serious Litigation exposure.  So then you’re left with about 20 to 35 teams in a new semi pro league.   They are going to lose 50% of the viewership and therefore 50% of the revenue.

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1 hour ago, Mike Jackson said:

 

Wardly I think it is all wishful thinking for fans of all but the 20-36 most marketable CFB brand schools.  There used to be a time when P5 also-rans legitimately had a path to the national championship by winning their conference. Now with 18 to 20 team or more team conferences there is no way to eliminate subjectivity from the conference championship process unless you have a conference playoff.   Can you schedule that playoff for 3 weeks in November without killing a ton of tradition?  Probably not.   All this expansion is happening without no consideration of the product they offered in the past compared to what the product will be in the future.  Are they totally eliminating non-conference games?  Even with 13 game all in conference games that will leave 5 conference rivals you play once every 5 years.   The numbers are even worse the bigger the conference gets and if you allow non-conference scheduling.  This utter garbage so tired of the Talking Heads on TV trying to defend/explain this as anything else than a pure money grab.  I think at this point I am 100% in favor of paying these players out right.  Pay them and then allow them to pay for their education to maintain their eligibility to play.   No discounted tuition for out-of-state players because they should pay out of state tuition out the salary.   Same thing with private institutions.  The private school tuition is the private school tuition whether you are an unpaid volunteer walk-on or the 5 star QB with a 6 figure salary..  Disconnect football from the NCAA and the title IX requirements.  Let’s stop all the fakery, if they’re going to kill it making it corporate stop doing it half ass and let the free market determine the viability.  It will be nice for a couple of years but when 70% or more FBS programs Drop football or drop down level even mighty will feel the pain.  Because when that 70% drop down you can’t have paid employees/ semi pro players, playing real amateurs without serious Litigation exposure.  So then you’re left with about 20 to 35 teams in a new semi pro league.   They are going to lose 50% of the viewership and therefore 50% of the revenue.

It's all about the money. The big dogs are trying to fund their players with the creation of 2 or 3 super conferences and probably spin off from the NCAA. The medium sized and little dogs are just trying to put an affordable and within their conference "competitive"  product on the field. Bigger dogs always eat smaller dogs. I grew up in the 50's listing to Kern Tips [sic?] and the Humble SWC game of the week with my dad on the radio. Me and my friends went to TCU games and for 50 cents sat in the end zone. At that time college football was a game, not a business, which changed for me when Arkansas bolted for the SEC. Oh well.

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Starting in 2025 the SEC & Big Ten will each have 16 teams and be able to start hosting conference semi-finals, pulling in a billon dollars a year each in media rights and will mostly likely take 3 out of the 4 Playoff Spots leaving the ACC, Big 12, & PAC-10 to compete for the remaining playoff spot.  Sounds like this will force the CFP to expand to 6 or 8 teams, which may work to AAC's advantage by creating more access to playoffs, thus creating a path for the Mean Green to win it all.

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Just to throw this out there:  assuming a weakened PACXX somehow comes calling for UNT, do you take that chance?  Is a spot in a weak traditional P5 better than a spot in a strong G5?  Remember that the P5 isn't just a media name, the conferences are actually under a different ruleset as named "autonomy conferences".

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1 hour ago, TripleGrad said:

Just to throw this out there:  assuming a weakened PACXX somehow comes calling for UNT, do you take that chance?  Is a spot in a weak traditional P5 better than a spot in a strong G5?  Remember that the P5 isn't just a media name, the conferences are actually under a different ruleset as named "autonomy conferences".

Interesting scenario.  Any promotion is a promotion, right?  But I don't think NT would be involved in that situation.  However, the MWC as a whole could.  Say the PAC is left with 6 schools.  Would they prefer to:

- Merge into the Big12 as part of a cross-country conference?, or

- Merge the MWC into them and maintain their Western regionalism?

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1 hour ago, TripleGrad said:

Just to throw this out there:  assuming a weakened PACXX somehow comes calling for UNT, do you take that chance?  Is a spot in a weak traditional P5 better than a spot in a strong G5?  Remember that the P5 isn't just a media name, the conferences are actually under a different ruleset as named "autonomy conferences".

 

Yes, but as much as I would like for that to be a possibility that has a 1 in a million chance of happening. If the Pac had to dip into the G5s there would be a myriad of other schools that would get a look before we do. 

21 minutes ago, NT80 said:

Interesting scenario.  Any promotion is a promotion, right?  But I don't think NT would be involved in that situation.  However, the MWC as a whole could.  Say the PAC is left with 6 schools.  Would they prefer to:

- Merge into the Big12 as part of a cross-country conference?, or

- Merge the MWC into them and maintain their Western regionalism?

In this scenario I would see it go:

-The 6 schools apply to the Big12. Either all get in or a couple get left out.

- The Big12 isn't interested, and they invite 4-6 from the G5. The Pac name still holds some weight so I don't see any     MWC/G5 team able to resist if invited. 

 

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It’s weird isn’t it. It feels like the Western part of the USA needs a strong conference. It’s a whole different part of the world and with the perceived implosion of the premier league out there that vacuum has to spell opportunity for something, some group. 

As for interest in all these league matchups between the big dog programs. Eh it’s okay. It’s for the big dog fans me not so much. My SEC fans love to watch these matchups and their teams from sports bars on tv. I still like in person action even in a stadium half filled with 15k other fans. That’s nothing the big dog fans understand. I don’t care. Something about watching an in person battle under a big black sky on a steamy desert night with 40k excites me. 

The money will flow for the 3 conferences but I can’t say the same for the interest. They only need their rabid fanbases I assume. But interest from the left out rabid fanbases won’t automatically tune in for all these “must see matchups.” Will I turn in more or less? Not sure, probably the same. Because for me it’s always been about my university, their progress, the entertainment and those friend filled Saturday afternoons. I can watch those other games at my leisure like I already do. 

Play teams you can drive to against programs you can build rivalries with. The more things change, sometimes the more they stay the same.

Beat UTEP

GMG

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Lets assume that the SEC and BIG 10 are lockstep in keeping up with each other. If Notre Dame joins THE BIG, will Washington, Oregon , and perhaps Stanford get invitation? At some point the more members in a conference the smaller the individual tv payout as the newbees don't bring large enough markets to warrant their inclusion. Just a guess but 16 members seems to be the optimal number. Having said that, then the SEC , who will keep up with THE BIG, raids the ACC  for two additional teams, perhaps Clemson and Miami. What does that mean to the BIG 12. Both Arizona programs are in play, and probably Utah which pairs the UTES with BYU. A 4 th program could be Colorado, Colorado State, or USF because of the Tampa market. Whats left of the PAC could reload with SDSU, Boise, and the 2 Nevada schools. The MWC could reload with CUSA or merge with the WAC. In summary, it appears that Notre Dame controls what happens next. Fun times once again.

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11 hours ago, TripleGrad said:

Just to throw this out there:  assuming a weakened PACXX somehow comes calling for UNT, do you take that chance?  Is a spot in a weak traditional P5 better than a spot in a strong G5?  Remember that the P5 isn't just a media name, the conferences are actually under a different ruleset as named "autonomy conferences".

This isn’t popular opinion but I stay in the American unless the Big12 or SEC came calling. I am adamantly opposed to being in a conference without regional/Texas opponents. Just say no to another Big West situation.

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1 hour ago, Cr1028 said:

This isn’t popular opinion but I stay in the American unless the Big12 or SEC came calling. I am adamantly opposed to being in a conference without regional/Texas opponents. Just say no to another Big West situation.

Now we're comparing the PAC to the Big West????

 

I'm sorry but not even close.

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13 hours ago, shaft said:

Starting in 2025 the SEC & Big Ten will each have 16 teams and be able to start hosting conference semi-finals, pulling in a billon dollars a year each in media rights and will mostly likely take 3 out of the 4 Playoff Spots leaving the ACC, Big 12, & PAC-10 to compete for the remaining playoff spot.  Sounds like this will force the CFP to expand to 6 or 8 teams, which may work to AAC's advantage by creating more access to playoffs, thus creating a path for the Mean Green to win it all.

I don't think there done with expansion especially the Big 10.  And the biggest brands in the PAC 12 remain are looking to align themselves with big brands east of the Rockies.  Now they could stand firm invite the best 2 programs available that make geographic sense.  Also in that conference semi final week we lose a ton of tradition.  We wouldn't get the Thanksgiving weekend rivarly games.  And 6-8 team playoff scenerion has always made me puke.  As long don't have automatic Qualifying for G5 conference winners you G5 will never get a shot.  These leaders are determine ring the neck of the golden goose to get the absolute most golden eggs but they are going to choke it to death IMO.

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Once the dust REALLY settles the BIG 10 and SEC should have at least 1/3 rd of the existing 130 D1 athletic programs. They will then leave the NCAA and form their own organization taking the major Bowl games with them as well as the playoff system. The other 90 programs will become Division 1A and 1AA will remain the same. The slimmed down version of 1A [i.e. gutted] will have the minor bowls and can establish their own playoff system similar to the existing 1AA format. The NCAA as a governing body will probably  cease to exist. It's all about the money, paying players as employees, and affording to have the resources to fund Olympic sports. If I am President of a university that is not one of the " fortunate forty" their is no way I am putting money into bricks and sticks or adding new programs until conference realignment is completed and new tv contracts in place.

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56 minutes ago, Rudy said:

Now we're comparing the PAC to the Big West????

 

I'm sorry but not even close.

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Geographically yes. I’m not dumb enough to see them on the same level competition wise but I do see the Big West, Mountain West, and Pac12 as having the same geographical problem that I am not a fan of.

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